10 Bets to Watch, a Huge Padres and Dodgers Series and the Premier League is Back

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: The Premier League season has arrived

• Bets to Watch: Mariners’ Castillo averaged 6 innings and 1.6 ER in past 7 starts

• Game of the Day: Padres and Dodgers start a big 3-game series

• Player to Watch: Robert MacIntyre has a 3-shot lead at the BMW

• Overtime: Wayne Rooney did not like Tom Brady’s comments

The Premier League offseason — if you can call it that — is over, as defending champion Liverpool kicks off the 2025-26 year with a home match vs. Bournemouth today (3pm ET on USA).

After backing up their title by bringing in big-money signings Florian Wirtz and Hugo Ekitike (and with Alexander Isak rumors still swirling), Mohamed Salah and the Reds are favored at FanDuel (+165) to repeat.

Arsenal, runner-up finisher each of the past three seasons, is second in the odds at +230. The Gunners haven’t won the PL since 2003-04; they’re hoping newcomers Martin Zubimendi and Viktor Gyokeres, along with a healthy year for stars like Bukayo Saka, can put them over the top.

Man City, which won four titles in a row and six of seven before last season, is +340 to resume its winning ways, which would be aided by a bounce-back campaign from Erling Haaland — the Golden Boot favorite “only” scored 22 goals a season ago — and the return from injury of 2024 Ballon d’Or winner Rodri.

Chelsea, which claimed the Club World Cup with an emphatic win over PSG and will be relying on burgeoning star Cole Palmer plus newcomer Joao Pedro, is +750 to win its first title since 2016-17.

—Patrick Dorsey

Contreras is 10 for 18 Over Past 5 Games with 3 Home Runs, 1 Double and 4 Walks

By Craig Williams

Cardinals +1.5 (-144 at FanDuel)
Neither the Cardinals nor the Yankees are playing particularly well at the moment, but one thing the Cardinals do is protect their home turf (35-27). The Yankees, meanwhile, enter play 27-32 on the road. The Cards are 17-7 and 12-8 to the runline as a home dog and with a day off, respectively. The Yankees made the trip from the Bronx to St. Louis. That’s certainly not the most strenuous trek a team has to make, but we’re factoring it into the equation nonetheless.

Yankees vs. Cardinals under 5.5 runs first 5 innings (-140 at DraftKings)
The Yankees are averaging 4.4 runs per game with a .306 wOBA since the All-Star break, and the Cardinals are even worse as they’re averaging 3.3 runs per contest with a .292 wOBA. Yankees starter Luis Gil was much better in his second start. He pitched into the sixth inning and punched out seven Astros. We’re bullish on Gil delivering another strong outing, especially given the offensive struggles of the Cardinals.

Mariners +0.5 first 5 innings (-138 at FanDuel)
Just when the Mets made it seem as though they could be trusted, they reverted to their poor second-half form. It’s difficult to back them even at Citi Field, especially in this spot with the Mariners coming into play with a +21 run differential on the road — beating out their +14 mark at home. They also have the sixth most home runs since the All-Star break and enter tonight with a much stronger .763 OPS on the road they do at T-Mobile Park (.689). Sean Manaea hasn’t been sharp in his past two outings, and this is a spot in which the trends suggest Seattle will keep things tight. 

Mets under 4.5 runs (-156 at FanDuel)
The Mets have won one game over their past 10, and they’ve averaged a modest 4.7 runs per game over that span. They have a challenging matchup against the Mariners’ Luis Castillo, who’s averaging six innings and 1.6 earned runs allowed over his past seven starts. If the pitch-level data holds true, it won’t be a surprise to see Castillo lean on his sinker against a Mets team that has struggled against the pitch since the All-Star break.

Nationals under 3.5 runs (-145 at DraftKings)
Zack Wheeler has hit a couple of bumps in the road since the start of July, but he still enters tonight’s start with a 0.98 WHIP and 34.9% strikeout rate over his past 37.2 frames. He has two strong performances under his belt against the Nats this season — 12.2 innings, three earned runs, 15 punchouts — and we’re looking at another quality outing against them and their .301 wOBA since the All-Star break.

Guardians moneyline (-120 at Caesars)
We’re backing the Guardians against the visiting Braves, who just finished a series in Queens. The Braves are struggling overall this season, but they’ve been especially poor away from home, both in the win-loss column and run-differential department. They enter with a sub-.700 OPS on the road and against left-handers — they’ll step in against southpaw Joey Cantillo. The Guardians, meanwhile, are 7-3 over their past 10 and right on the doorstep of the final wild card spot.

Astros +1.5 (-110 at bet365)
The stage appears set for a quality night for the hosts — the Astros are 37-25 at home compared to the Orioles’ 25-36 mark. The theoretical struggles the visiting O’s face is underscored in their -84 run differential on the road. They also struggle against left-handers (.659 OPS) and away from Camden Yards (.646 OPS). Astros southpaw Framber Valdez excels with his sinker and slider, two offerings the Orioles have not enjoyed much success against this season.

Athletics over 4.5 runs (-125 at DraftKings)
The Athletics have been one of the better teams since the beginning of July, both in the win-loss column and at the dish, where they are second in the league in homers. They’ll have a prime opportunity to plate a healthy dose of runs against lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 1.56 WHIP and six homers allowed over his past 42.1 innings. The A’s, meanwhile, have strong offensive numbers at home and against lefties. If Kikuchi gives the Athletics opportunities, they’re in the form to punish him.

Brewers over 4.5 runs (-138 at FanDuel)
We’re continuing to back the red-hot Brewers, who are riding a 12-game winning streak with a +103 run differential since July 1. They’re entering tonight’s contest with a robust .286/.356/.463 slash line since that point as well. They’ll take aim at right-hander Nick Martinez, against whom they tagged for three runs in 4.2 innings on April 4. Martinez has pitched reasonably well in six starts since surrendering 10 earned runs on July 8, but we’re not counting on well enough to stop the Brewers and their 6.8 runs per game they’ve averaged since the All-Star break.

William Contreras 2+ hits+runs+RBI (-160 at DraftKings)
Contreras is in the midst of a hot streak, batting .556 (10 for 18) over his past five games with three homers, a double, and four walks. Digging deeper into his recent batting trends also reveals that he’s been hitting the ball with authority up the middle and to the opposite field. That approach will serve him well against a pitcher like Nick Martinez, who won’t miss many bats while he tries to coax soft contact. Contreras is 3 for 13 against Martinez, but with a homer and a double. 

Newly 1st-Place Padres (+1.5) Travel to Dodger Stadium for Huge 3-Game Series

Here we go. A division race that seemed almost wrapped up a few weeks ago has a new leader — for now — as the Padres have taken over first in the NL West. But this is the first of six games in a 10-day span between the two rivals, games that very well could decide who takes the division crown.

Padres vs. Dodgers
10:10pm ET on MLB Network

• Starting Pitchers:

  • SD: TBD

  • LAD: Clayton Kershaw (6-2), 3.14 ERA, 71.2 IP, 25 ER, 46 K, 19 BB, 1.26 WHIP

• Spread: Dodgers -1.5 (+106), Padres +1.5 (-128)

  • 52% of the money and 65% of the bets are with San Diego

• Moneyline: Dodgers -190, Padres +160

• Total (9): Over -122, Under +100

Head to Head

• Kershaw has an extensive record (148 at-bats) vs. current Padres hitters, giving up 41 hits (.277 average) while striking out 28. Manny Machado is 13-42 with 4 HR and 9 RBI, striking out 8 times.

2-Time PGA Tour Winner Robert MacIntyre Has a 3-Shot Lead After Round 1 at the BMW

Name: Robert MacIntyre
World Golf Ranking: 16th
This Week’s Tournament: BMW Championship, Caves Valley Golf Club
Tee Time: 1:05pm ET
2025 Stats: 21 starts, 19 cuts made, 9 top 25s, 5 top 10s, 1 runner-up (U.S. Open), 0 wins
Round 1: 8-under 62, 3-shot lead

Past 5 Tournaments

• FedEx St. Jude Championship: T38 (-3)

• Wyndham Championship: T44 (-4)

• The Open Championship: T7 (-10)

• Genesis Scottish Open: T65 (+2)

• Travelers Championship: T17 (-6)

Potential Bets

• Win only: +400

• Top 5: -165

• Top 10: -450

• Top 20: -2000

• Bogey-free round: +1300

• Top European: +160

In the News 

• Wayne Rooney has taken issue with Tom Brady’s comments about him.

• Rashee Rice’s disciplinary hearing is reportedly set for Sept. 30.

• Deion Sanders and Tim Tebow are part of AP’s all-time All-American team.

• Here are the best games on the 2025-26 NBA schedule.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• All Day (starting 1pm): Little League World Series on ESPN

• 2pm: BMW Championship on Golf Channel

• 3pm: Liverpool vs. Bournemouth on USA

• 6:40pm: Brewers vs. Reds on Apple TV+

• 7:07pm: Rangers vs. Blue Jays on Apple TV+

Photo of the Day