MNF is Back, Insights on 10 Bets to Watch Today, and the SEC Contenders for the Title

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Previewing the SEC

• Bets to Watch: NFL, Cincinnati Open finals, and CFB and MLB futures

• Game of the Day: Monday Night (Preseason) Football is back

• Player to Watch: Peralta was roughed up in last start vs. Cubs

• Overtime: Browns crowded QB competition is ripe for preseason drama

The college football season kicks off on Saturday with a Big 12 matchup featuring two ranked teams — No. 22 Iowa State vs. No. 17 Kansas State — from Dublin in what is now known as Week 0 (if you missed our Big 12 preview, you can read it on our website).

While the Big 12 looks to improve on a surprisingly strong year, the SEC and Big Ten are once again the talk of college football. The SEC is considered slightly stronger to start the season, but we’ll find out quickly how that prediction looks when No. 1 Texas travels to No. 3 Ohio State to highlight Week 1 (August 30th at 12pm on FOX). The SEC has four main contenders to win the national championship this season, according to FanDuel odds:

• No. 1 Texas (+550): The Longhorns lost to eventual champion Ohio State in the CFP semifinals last season and start this year as the favorite to win the title. Arch Manning finally gets his chance to run the offense after two years of patient development, bringing elite arm talent and dangerous mobility that should open up the Texas playbook with designed quarterback runs.

• No. 5 Georgia (+650): Most people forget that Georgia was the No. 2 seed in last year’s CFP, as they had a “down” year with two losses in the SEC regular season. The Bulldogs’ ceiling will be determined by how well quarterback Gunner Stockton performs in his first full season as starter, replacing the departed Carson Beck, who is now at Miami (No. 10, +198 to make the CFP).

• No. 8 Alabama (+1100): Head coach Kalen DeBoer enters his second season in Tuscaloosa with high expectations and a fanbase that’s already out of patience. The Crimson Tide return significant talent including star receiver Ryan Williams and key starters from last season’s squad.

• No. 9 LSU (+1500): The Tigers have Heisman hopeful Garrett Nussmeier at quarterback, which should give head coach Brian Kelly a shot at getting over the hump. Nussmeier returns for his second season as starter after throwing for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2024, with coaches praising his improved consistency and leadership during the offseason.

—Abe Rakov

Burrow Completed 9 of 10 Passes for 123 Yards and 2 TDs in Preseason Opener

By Chris Farley

Joe Burrow to throw a TD pass on first offensive drive (+290 at FanDuel)
Joe Burrow looked perfect in his first action last weekend, orchestrating two touchdown drives on 9.7 yards per play. Following an incompletion on his first throw, Burrow answered with nine straight completions for 123 yards and 12 points on the scoreboard. Bengals' coach Zac Taylor previously emphasized the need for starters to get in more reps in hopes of more early season success (they opened 0-3 last season and 0-2 the previous two seasons), and he already noted that Burrow and company will see the field on Monday night. Washington is excited about their new defense, which includes a new cornerback room with Mike Sainristil and Marshon Lattimore, who will start Monday. We're just picking Burrow over everybody.

Bengals vs. Commanders under 43 points (-105 at Bovada)
Preseason totals have famously gone over this year at a very high-rate, a trend that's continued into Week 2. So far, through 15 games the total has gone over nine times. This number is unusually high, although we know why: Both Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels, two of the most prolific passers in the NFL with two of the most prolific offenses, are set to see the field on Monday. Both programs are projected as offense-first operations again in 2025, despite a few notable upgrades for each roster. Still, although we've seen so many overs, 43 is a very rare number for an exhibition game. In the past two weeks of action, just 10 of 32 games have eclipsed 43 points, which is still a high occurrence, but we'll fade what we see as a stark market overreaction.

Tennis

Jannik Sinner 2-0 (+135 at DraftKings and FanDuel)
The World #1 took some well-deserved time off after his Wimbledon title, a month in total, but that hasn't slowed him down one bit. Sinner has yet to lose a set in Cincinnati, mowing through guys who were high on momentum entering their battles and it mattered not. With scintillating serves and crafty returns, the Italian has won over 90% of his first-service games in three out of five matches in Ohio. He was close to 100% in two matches (96% against Galan, 97% against Mannarino). Carlos Alcaraz, who has more Grand Slam titles than Sinner (5-4), will face off against his rival again in another legendary battle, but we can't say he's been quite as sharp in Cincinnati. The Spaniard was taken to a third set twice in five matches and not as consistent in first-serve wins (76% win-rate). Sinner has been perfect, and seems to find the driver's seat in every match.

Iga Swiatek 2-0 (-150 at BetOnline)
No one player in Cincinnati looked in better form than Elena Rybakina leading into her semifinals match against the Polish superstar, yet it made no difference in the final result. Since her latest Grand Slam win at Wimbledon, her 6th major title, Swiatek has been on a rampage. Clara Tauson got the best of her two weeks ago in Montreal, a player she's always struggled against, but otherwise she hasn't lost a set. Her serve is arguably the most improved single factor we've seen from any player on tour this season, and she's shown it off in Cincinnati (13 aces in four matches and a 78% or higher first serve win-rate in three out of four matches). We respect Jasmine Paolini and she has played superbly in this event, but she's also routinely stumbled all year in these big moments.

Hailey Baptiste to win (-110 at Bovada)
Romanian Elena Gabriela Ruse has had a winning record every season since 2019, but this year it's been rockier than usual. Just 10-7 overall on hard courts, Ruse is coming off a rough patch following Wimbledon, losing in the first round in Prague, Montreal, and Cincinnati. She'll hope that Cleveland will serve as a more amenable venue, but she has never competed there before. Hailey Baptiste has played on most American grounds, no matter the location, having played outdoors on the surface 199 times in her pro-career. She also obliterated Ruse in their only matchup back in 2022 (6-3, 6-0), proving to draw far too much power for Ruse to handle. We like those same edges to be the difference on Monday.

Renata Zarazua to win (+123 at BetOnline)
Ajla Tomljanovic might have had her biggest moment at the 2022 U.S. Open, effectively ending the career of the biggest star in women's tennis, Serena Williams. That was the height of the Australian’s career, a year where she made the quarterfinals at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, but she's been rather pedestrian since. Just 32 years old, Tomljanovic still has the tools and veteran experience to make waves and at least she's been consistent this season, often beating players outside of the top-50 but rarely making a dent in any tournament. Renata Zarazua could say the exact same thing, routinely competitive but never succeeding beyond the third round in 2025 tournaments. Younger and 2-2 against the favorite in her career, the value is clearly on the Mexican.

Jaqueline Cristian to win (+215 at BetOnline)
Leylah Fernandez had her day in the sun at the Citi Open this season, rolling by top players like Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina along the way. Otherwise she's been flopping, similar to what we've seen from the Canadian all season. Fernandez followed her D.C. victory with two fails at Montreal and Cincinnati, immediately booted out by lower-ranked competition (Maya Joint and Jessica Bouzas Maneiros). Her foe on Monday isn't getting nearly as much respect, which we see as a flaw in the marketplace. Cristian is ranked 52nd in the world and rarely threatening to win a tournament, but other than a tough first round draw at Cincinnati (Marketa Vondrousova), she has looked formidable — beating players like Panna Udvardy and Linda Noskova at recent events. If Fernandez shows up in the same poor form, this is an upset waiting to happen.

NCAAF Lookahead Bet (Sunday, August 31)

Notre Dame vs. Miami under 50.5 points (-107 at Bookmaker)
We're already late to the best number but that doesn't mean we hate the value currently on the board. The Irish will start anew at quarterback, which will likely take some time to develop. On the other side of the ball, they should have little issue picking up right where they left off on defense. Notre Dame allowed the lowest completion percentage in the country last season (52.1%) and held offenses to just 15.5 points per game (3rd overall), an incredible stat considering their schedule. They return six defensive stalwarts this season. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes were the nation's most prolific offense last season, first in yards and points per game, although they only brought back three offensive starters (all offensive linemen). On defense they return five starters, a budding group that rose to top-40 marks in rush and pass yards permitted per play in 2024. Considering the clunkiness of the regular season opener and how each defense returns a cadre of leaders, we don't see either team getting close to 30 points.

MLB Futures

Yankees to win AL East (+600 at BetOnline)
The up and down nature of "the Pinstripes" has defined their summer. Always at the center of baseball media and constantly scrutinized by high-profile New York outlets, the Yankees are under the microscope more than usual, with one pundit after another debating their playoff fate. We're taking it a step further. According to Fangraphs, the Yankees have the easiest schedule in baseball in the final quarter of the season. Aaron Judge is also slowly showing signs of the same dominant form that carried the Yankees through former struggles, nailing two homers the past four games. And while the Giancarlo Stanton injury saga continues on, Fernando Cruz, Ryan Yarbrough, and Jonathan Loaísiga will return shortly to boost their pitching depth chart. Plus, they're only 5.5 wins behind the Jays, with 38 games remaining, and let's be real: We've seen the Yankees get hot before.

Tigers to win the American League (+400 on BetOnline)
The Tigers haven't been quite as consistent lately, but they're still a real threat in the big picture. Detroit was the second-highest favorite to win it all before the All-Star game, but a 1-8 stretch immediately following the break meant a humbling jump back in the standings. Now the Jays lead by 0.5 games in the American League, but the same resilient Tigers are starting to show themselves again. They do enough to maintain dominant pitching, like their top-5 marks in team strikeouts and top-11 ranking in team left-on-base right over the past month. They're also, in the macro, a well-balanced, top-10 program on both offense and defense. Rumors are forming that they'll bring up one of their hottest prospects, Hao-Yu Lee, to catalyze their stretch run. Last year marked a rare playoff berth for a team that hasn't won a World Series since 1984, and when they get there they'll be very dangerous.  

Daniels is Expected to See First Preseason Action in MNF Matchup vs. Bengals

The Bengals and Commanders face off tonight in a preseason matchup that has more intrigue than most exhibition games. Both teams suffered disappointing losses in their preseason openers, with Cincinnati falling to Philadelphia 34-27 and Washington, which sat most of its starters, getting blown out by New England 48-18.

Bengals vs. Commanders
8pm on ESPN

What to Watch

• Jayden Daniels is set to make his 2025 preseason debut after sitting out the Patriots loss, with coach Dan Quinn confirming the second-year quarterback will play “a few series.”

• Bengals cornerbacks Cam Taylor-Britt and Dax Hill will both make their preseason debuts after sitting out the Eagles game, with Hill transitioning from safety to nickel corner following his recovery from a torn ACL.

• The Bengals will be without tight end Mike Gesicki (hamstring), defensive end Myles Murphy (ankle), and several offensive linemen, while the Commanders have 12 players ruled out including Bobby Wagner.

• Terry McLaurin was activated from the PUP list Saturday but remains unavailable due to ongoing contract extension negotiations, with the receiver having requested a trade on July 31.

• Joe Burrow completed 9 of 10 passes for 123 yards and two touchdowns in the preseason opener, including a 36-yard touchdown pass to Ja’Marr Chase, who totaled 77 receiving yards.

Preseason Week 1 Top Performers

• Bengals

  • QB Joe Burrow: 9/10, 123 yards, 2 TD

  • RB Tahj Brooks: 10 carries, 26 yards

  • WR Jamar Chase: 4 receptions, 77 yards, 1 TD

  • S PJ Jules: 6 solo tackles

• Commanders

  • QB Josh Johnson: 15/22, 173 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int

  • RB Demetric Felton: 6 carries, 42 yards

  • WR Ja’Corey Brooks: 5 receptions, 59 yards

  • CB Car'lin Vigers: 8 solo tackles

Peralta Looks to Bounce Back From Rough Outing vs. Cubs in Last Head-to-Head

Name: Freddy Peralta
Team: Milwaukee Brewers (78-45)
Position: Starting Pitcher
Matchup: vs. Chicago Cubs (70-53)
2025 Stats: 25 starts, 14-5, 2.90 ERA, 136.2 innings, 44 ER, 103 hits, 16 HR, 50 BB, 148 K, 1.12 WHIP

Past 5 Starts

• vs. Pittsburgh (8/12): Win, 6.0 innings, 3 hits, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

• at Atlanta (8/5): Win, 5.0 innings, 4 hits, 1 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 7 K

• vs. Chicago (7/30): Loss, 4.0 innings, 5 hits, 5 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 3 K

• vs. Miami (7/25): ND, 5.0 innings, 5 hits, 1 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 9 K

• at LA Dodgers (7/19): Win, 5.0 innings, 5 hits, 4 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 4 K

Potential Bets

• Strikeouts (5.5): Over -118, Under -112

• Outs Recorded (17.5): Over +102, Under -135

• First 5 Innings Moneyline: Brewers -106, Cubs -118

• First 5 Innings Total Runs (4.5): Over -108, Under -120

In the News 

• Are the Bengals open to trading their star defensive end?

• Despite rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart’s impressive preseason, the Giants still plan to start Russell Wilson when the season begins.

• Browns rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel says he wasn’t talking about a certain fellow rookie QB teammate when he said “You know, there's entertainers and there's competitors, and I totally understand that.”

• Fever “hope” that Caitlin Clark will be back during the WNBA regular season.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2:20pm: Brewers vs. Cubs on MLB Network

• 3pm: Leeds vs. Everton on USA

• 6:40pm: Astros vs. Tigers or Mariners vs. Phillies on MLB Network

• 8pm: Bengals vs. Commanders on ESPN

• 9:38pm: Reds vs. Angels on FS1

Photo of the Day