Our Top 10 Bets to Watch Today+ Where the Betting Public is on MLB Games and the Effect of NFL Cuts

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Key players cut (and kept) by NFL teams

• Bets to Watch: Royals have won 12 of 15 games vs. White Sox

• Public Betting: Bettors like underdog Phillies (+1.5) vs. Mets

• Game of the Day: The WNBA 2-seed could be on the line in Atlanta

• Overtime: The NFL’s final preseason QB battle has been won

It was NFL cutdown day Tuesday, and although few truly impact players were affected, there were still some notable names kept or released before the deadline:

• Hunter Renfrow (Panthers): Renfrow had a 103-catch, 1,038-yard season with the Raiders in 2021, but fell off quickly, then missed the entire 2024 season with ulcerative colitis. Some expected his comeback with the Panthers to stick, but instead it appears Carolina is holding on to Adam Thielen.

• Malachi Corley (Jets): He called himself the “YAC King” and was Aaron Rodgers’ “favorite receiver of the [2024] draft.” But one year after going in the third round, his Jets career is over, marked by just 16 (you read that right) receiving yards and one embarrassing gaffe.

• Kyle Trask (Buccaneers): Remember when former second-rounder Trask was locked in a training camp QB battle with Baker Mayfield? Well Trask is a Buc no more, with former high school football coach Teddy Bridgewater now Tampa Bay’s backup.

• Cole Strange (Patriots): Strange was a, well, strange pick when New England took him in the 2022 first round, and it seems those poor draft grades were proven right when he was sent packing this week.

• Shedeur Sanders (Browns): Sanders was kept, not cut! The Kenny Pickett trade made this move ultimately unsurprising; Shedeur is now set to be Cleveland’s third-stringer in 2025 (with starts quite possible, unless second-stringer Dillon Gabriel takes the job and doesn’t let go).

• Tommy DeVito (Giants): It’s too easy to make a pun about Tommy Cutlets getting cut. The odd QB out after the Giants brought in Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston and Jaxson Dart, fan favorite DeVito could still find a landing spot.

Here’s a list of every team’s biggest move leading up to the deadline.

—Patrick Dorsey

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Brewers Have Won 15 Straight Games When Priester Takes the Mound

By Jack Dougherty

Yankees vs. Nationals under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-113 at FanDuel)
After giving up 15 earned runs in a three-start span, Max Fried got back on track last week with six shutout innings and seven strikeouts against the Red Sox. This is a good opportunity for him to keep it rolling, as the Nationals rank 28th in MLB in OPS (.497) and wRC+ (40) against left-handed pitching over the last two weeks. On the other side, Cade Cavalli has been impressive with a 2.82 ERA, a 2.8% barrel rate and a 35.6% chase rate through four starts this season. The first 5 under is the way to play this to avoid Washington’s atrocious bullpen.

Francisco Lindor 2+ hits + runs + RBIs (-135 at DraftKings)
Lindor is one of the hottest hitters in the majors right now. The Mets shortstop is batting .426 with a league-leading 1.198 OPS over the last 15 days, and he’s hit this mark in eight of his last 10 games. We’re getting a discount on this price because Lindor is 2-20 (.100) in his career against Taijuan Walker, but he’s swinging the bat too well to ignore. 

Yu Darvish over 4.5 strikeouts (-158 at FanDuel)
It hasn’t been a great season for Darvish since debuting in July, but he’s still able to rack up strikeouts with his nine-pitch arsenal. The veteran right-hander has cleared this line in five straight starts after going under in three of his first four appearances. This is also a great matchup against the Mariners, which have a 36.4% strikeout rate in 110 plate appearances against Darvish. 

Royals moneyline (-126 at FanDuel)
This price is simply too cheap for the much better team in this matchup. The Royals are 12-3 in their last 15 games against the White Sox, and rookie right-hander Ryan Bergert isn’t getting enough credit in the market here. The 25-year-old is sporting a 1.09 WHIP this season, and he’s given up two or fewer earned runs in six straight starts. On the other side, Aaron Civale is starting to fall apart with 21 hits allowed, 16 earned runs and seven walks in his last 14.1 innings of work. Look at the discount on Kansas City here. 

Jack Kochanowicz under 2.5 strikeouts (+115 at DraftKings)
This number may seem impossibly low, but Kochanowicz has gone under 2.5 strikeouts in five of his last seven starts. The Angels right-hander now ranks in the fourth percentile in strikeout rate (14.5%), and this isn’t a good matchup for him to improve that number. In 73 plate appearances against Kochanowicz, Rangers hitters have a minuscule 6.8% strikeout rate. Texas also has the fifth-lowest strikeout rate against righties over the last 10 days (19.9%).

Brewers moneyline (-142 at FanDuel)
If Quinn Priester is on the mound, the Brewers find a way to win. It’s as simple as that. Milwaukee has won 15 straight games in which Priester has taken the mound, and the right-hander has given up two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight appearances. As for Ryne Nelson, he’s been much worse on the road all season. The Diamondbacks right-hander has a 2.42 ERA at home and a 5.01 ERA on the road this year. Opposing teams have a .752 OPS against Nelson in his road starts.

Framber Valdez under 6.5 strikeouts (+116 at FanDuel)
Valdez seems to be hitting a wall. The Astros left-hander was great in June and July, but he’s given up 31 hits, 21 runs and 10 walks through his first four starts in August. He’s recorded only 12 strikeouts in that span. Sportsbooks are expecting a bounce-back performance against the dismal Rockies, but this lineup has been seeing the ball well against lefties lately. Since the start of August, Colorado has the second-lowest strikeout rate (14.7 percent) and the fourth-highest OPS (.829) against lefties. 

Colin Rea over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-110 at DraftKings)
Rea hasn’t been as good this season as his 10-5 record and 3.96 ERA suggest. The Cubs right-hander ranks in the 17th percentile in xERA (4.82), the 16th percentile in xBA (.277) and the 20th percentile in barrel rate (10.1%). Rea is due for some regression, and it could come against a Giants lineup that’s batting .400 with a .634 xSLG and a .451 xwOBA in 36 plate appearances against him. 

Tigers over 5.5 runs (-110 at DraftKings)
Rookie Luis Morales has a 1.72 ERA and 15 strikeouts through his first 15.2 innings in the majors, but regression is looming. The right-hander has a 4.54 xERA, a 10.0% barrel rate, a 17.3% chase rate and a 12.7% walk rate. Morales’ poor advanced metrics haven’t translated on the mound yet, but they will soon. If the Tigers can get to Morales early, they’ll also be able to tee off against an Athletics bullpen that has the third-highest ERA in MLB (4.79).

Future: Mets to win the NL East (+500 at DraftKings)
The Mets have won two straight against the Phillies to creep back to just five games back in the NL East standings, and they have the starting pitching advantage to complete the sweep on Wednesday. This is nothing new, as New York is 9-3 against Philadelphia dating back to the NLDS last year. The Mets have four games against the Marlins coming up and another four-game series against the Phillies in two weeks, so now is the time to strike if you think New York can make a late charge. With Zack Wheeler out for the season, Philadelphia could collapse.

Phillies (+1.5) Are Underdogs at Mets, and the Money and Bets Are Backing the Visitors

MLB

• Nationals vs. Yankees (-1.5, -138): 93% of the money and 87% of the bets are with New York

• Braves (-1.5, +120) vs. Marlins (+1.5, -144): 58% of the money is with Atlanta, but 62% of the bets are with Miami

• Rays vs. Guardians (+1.5, -156): 57% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Cleveland

• Padres (+1.5, -176) vs. Mariners: 85% of the money and 70% of the bets are with San Diego

• Red Sox (-1.5, -102) vs. Orioles: 80% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Boston

• Twins vs. Blue Jays (-1.5, +115): 87% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Toronto

• Phillies (+1.5, -160) vs. Mets: 74% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Philadelphia

• Diamondbacks (+1.5, -170) vs. Brewers (-1.5, +140): 55% of the money is with Arizona, but 55% of the bets are with Milwaukee

• Royals (-1.5, +134) vs. White Sox (+1.5, -162): 68% of the money is with Kansas City, but 62% of the bets are with Chicago

• Pirates (+1.5, -150) vs. Cardinals (-1.5, +125): 65% of the money is with St. Louis, but 61% of the bets are with Pittsburgh

• Angels (+1.5, -156) vs. Rangers (-1.5, +130): 63% of the money is with Texas, but 54% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Rockies vs. Astros (-1.5, -142): 98% of the money and 81% of the bets are with Houston

• Reds vs. Dodgers (-1.5, -104): 63% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Cubs (-1.5, +136) vs. Giants (+1.5, -164): 70% of the money is with Chicago, but 58% of the bets are with San Francisco

• Tigers (-1.5, +122) vs. Athletics: 64% of the money and 52% of the bets are with Detroit

Aces Going For 12th Straight Win & Solo 2nd, But Host Dream (-3.5) Favored

It’s Round 3 of this suddenly meaningful WNBA rivalry, eight days after the Aces took Round 2. Las Vegas (25-14) has won 11 in a row, vaulting it from the edge of playoff contention to a tie for the 2-seed. Atlanta (24-13) also occupies that spot; a win tonight would go far toward solidifying it.

Aces vs. Dream
7:30pm ET
NBA TV

• Spread: Dream (-3.5, -108), Aces (+3.5, -112)

• Moneyline: Dream -152, Aces +124

• Total (161): Over -114, Under -106

Head to Head

• July 22 at Las Vegas: Aces won 87-72

  • Leading points: Allisha Gray (24) | A’ja Wilson (24)

  • Leading rebounds: Allisha Gray (8) | A’ja Wilson (12)

  • Leading assists: Jordin Canada (6) | Jackie Young (7)

• August 19 at Las Vegas: Aces won 74-72

  • Leading points: Rhyne Howard (19) | A’ja Wilson (32)

  • Leading rebounds: Brittney Griner (8) | A’ja Wilson (12)

  • Leading assists: Rhyne Howard (6) | Chelsea Gray (11)

In the News 

• The NFL preseason’s final starting QB battle is officially over.

• The punishment for Willson Contreras came down one day after he threw a bat that hit his own coach.

• One of the top pitchers of 2025 might be done for the year.

• Here’s the best pick from each NBA Draft since 2000.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 11:30am: All-day U.S. Open coverage on ESPN

• 1:05pm: Nationals vs. Yankees OR Rays vs. Guardians on MLB Network

• 4:10pm: Padres vs. Mariners on MLB Network

• 7:30pm: Aces vs. Dream on NBA TV

• 7:45pm: Pirates at Cardinals on FS1

Photo of the Day