How the Parsons Trade Impacted Betting Markets + 3 Friday Night College Football Bets and MLB and Tennis Insights

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: The Micah Parsons trade rocked the betting market

• Bets to Watch: Baylor offense has major test vs. Auburn Defense

• Matchups: Aryna Sabalenka has history with today’s opponent

• Game of the Day: The post-Hunter/Shedeur era begins in Colorado

• Overtime: Boise State didn’t just lose, it was blown out

How about that for an eleventh-hour, potentially league-altering move?

One week before the season-opening game between Philadelphia and Dallas, NFL Defensive Player of the Year favorite Micah Parsons was stunningly traded by the Cowboys to the Packers, in exchange for veteran Kenny Clark and two first-rounders (Parsons immediately inked an extension with his new team).

The betting market has already responded. Days ago, Green Bay was +1900 at FanDuel to win the Super Bowl, tied with San Francisco for sixth. As of this writing, the Packers have jumped to +1200, tied with division-rival Detroit for fifth behind Baltimore (+700), Buffalo (+750), Philadelphia (+750) and Kansas City (+800).

In the division, Green Bay is now favored (+165) over Detroit (+185), while for the NFC title they’re in a dead heat (+300 for both) behind Philly (+380). The Packers’ win total of 10.5 is now +105 for the over, -125 for the under.

On the flip side, the Cowboys’ already-low odds have sunk further; where three weeks ago they were +186 to make the playoffs, +550 to win the division, +2200 to win the NFC and +4600 to win the Super Bowl, those numbers are now +250, +700, +3000 and +6000.

As for Parsons himself, earlier this month he was +600 for DPOY; his move to a contender has bumped that to +500.

Want expert analysis on what the trade means for both teams? Here are ESPN’s grades, plus a deep dive from Bill Barnwell.

—Patrick Dorsey

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Big Ten’s Sleeper Team Was 7-3 ATS in 2024, Starts The Season With Huge Number (-44.5)

By Craig Williams

Baylor under 28.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)
Auburn is expected to field a stout defense this season, especially in the trenches where they’re led by defensive ends Keldric Faulk and Keyron Crawford, who both project as NFL Draft prospects. A suspect Baylor offensive line threatens to derail the Bears’ opener if they’re unable to adequately protect quarterback Sawyer Robertson.

Illinois -44.5 (-110 at Fanatics)
Illinois was 7-3 against the spread in 2024, and while they didn’t lay a figure as large as tonight’s, we’re still backing them against the number. They’ll host FCS side Western Illinois, who are coming off of a 4-8 season. The Fighting Illini enter the campaign ranked No. 12 and with College Football Playoff hopes — even if that optimism is cautious. With a quality offensive line and experienced quarterback, Illinois figures to have their way for the full 60 minutes in this opener.

Colorado moneyline (+160 at ESPNBET)
The attention on Colorado will focus on the departures of Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, and it’s natural to fade the Buffalos — or at least want to take a “wait and see” approach. But we’re bullish on them continuing to demonstrate that they’re a program on the rise, and not just a product of a few NFL caliber players. They’re hosting a mediocre Georgia Tech program that has a 19-19 record since 2022, and we’re looking for the Buffs to make a mini statement with the upset.

MLB

Yankees -1.5 (-130 at FanDuel)
The Yankees are averaging 5.5 runs in August with a 14-11 record that doesn’t represent how well they’ve played of late (thanks to the Red Sox). They’ve won and covered five straight and their +26 run differential provides additional context to their current form. The White Sox, meanwhile, enter play with a 4.90 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, -19 run differential, and 8-17 tally in the win-loss column since August 1. 

Yankees vs. White Sox under 4.5 first 5 innings (-105 at DraftKings)
White Sox starter Yoendrys Gomez has pitched well since shifting to the starting rotation, producing a 2.45 ERA and 3.46 FIP over his past 14.2 frames. The key for Gomez will be keeping the Yankees’ in the yard — they lead MLB in home runs in August. He’s only allowed one home run in three starts, a trend that suggests he’ll be able to keep the Yankees from running away and hiding early in this contest. Meanwhile, Carlos Rodon has endured some ups and downs in recent weeks, but he appears to be turning the corner. His 3.88 FIP is a little less forgiving than his 2.66 ERA, but he’s 3-0 across his past four starts and the Yankees are 4-0 in those games.

Marlins under 1.5 runs first 3 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
Pitching has been the guilty culprit for the Mets this month, especially the bullpen. They’re turning to rookie Jonah Tong tonight with hopes that he can have an impact similar to Nolan McLean. Tong garners comparisons to two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, an appropriate comparison given his stature, deceptive windup, and prodigious strikeout ability (14.2 K/9). Rookie starters have a lot to navigate, especially their debuts, but it’s going to be challenging for the Marlins, who have never seen him.

Mets over 3.5 runs alternate (-170 at FanDuel)
The Mets have been among the best offenses in baseball since August 1, producing a league-best .365 wOBA and averaging 6.0 runs per game. Marlins starter Eury Perez has an electric arm, but he’s still rounding into form as a big league pitcher. He’s struggled in recent starts, especially in the walks and home runs allowed departments. That spells potential trouble against a Mets lineup that is third in home runs in August and doesn’t strikeout. If they drive up Perez’s pitch count, they’ll be able to take aim at a Marlins bullpen that has a 5.55 ERA in August.

Pirates +0.5 first 3 innings (-166 at DraftKings)
The Pirates are turning to Paul Skenes in a tough matchup against the Red Sox. The BoSox have averaged 5.0 runs per game since August 1 compared to the Pirates’ 4.5 runs per contest, but both have been middle of the pack in the wOBA department over that span. It’s difficult to trust the Pirates enough to back them over the course of the full nine innings, but we’ll ride with Skenes and a cover over the opening third of the contest.

Braves under 3.5 runs (-102 at FanDuel)
Ranger Suarez has had his way with the Braves this year, holding them to one earned run over 13 innings this season, and he’s in especially sharp form at the moment. He tossed 13.2 frames over his past two starts, allowing two earned runs while striking out 21. We’re not necessarily expecting him to continue mowing down hitters via Ks, but we do like him to pick apart a Braves lineup that has a .694 OPS against lefties.

Reds under 4.5 runs (-136 at FanDuel)
The Reds have stumbled a bit of late, losing three in a row and six of 10. They enter tonight’s contest four games behind the Mets for the final wild card. The Cardinals aren’t the same type of juggernaut as the Dodgers, who just swept the Reds, but we still anticipate them struggling against southpaw Matthew Liberatore. They have a .639 OPS against lefties and a .284 wOBA overall in August. 

No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka Lost Her Only Matchup vs. Today’s Opponent (in 2021 U.S. Open Semis)

MLB Batters

• Jose Ramirez (Guardians) vs. George Kirby (Mariners): 5-9, 2 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 K

• Nick Castellanos (Phillies) vs. Bryce Elder (Braves): 4-8, 4 HR, 7 RBI, 3 K

• Brandon Marsh (Phillies) vs. Bryce Elder (Braves): 4-6, 1 2B, 1 BB

• Dansby Swanson (Cubs) vs. German Marquez (Rockies): 5-10, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 1 K

• Wenceel Perez (Tigers) vs. Seth Lugo (Royals): 4-8, 1 HR, 1 RBI

• Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics) vs. Jack Leiter (Rangers): 3-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Luis Rengifo (Angels) vs. Cristian Javier (Astros): 5-11, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K

• Byron Buxton (Twins) vs. Nestor Cortes (Padres): 4-10, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 K

• Yordan Alvarez (Astros) vs. Tyler Anderson (Angels): 8-21, 3 2B, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB, 9 K

MLB Pitchers

• Carlos Rodon (Yankees) has allowed only 1 hit (a home run) in 28 at-bats vs. current White Sox batters, striking out 11. His slash line against is .036/.156/.143.

• Rengifo aside, Javier has been stellar vs. current Angels hitters, allowing just 10 hits in 61 at-bats while striking out 29. His slash line against is .164/.239/.246.

• Blake Snell (Dodgers) has allowed a .186 batting average vs. current Diamondbacks hitters, striking out 35 in 102 at-bats.

Tennis

• No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No. 31 Leylah Fernandez: Sabalenka and Fernandez faced off in the 2021 U.S. Open semifinals, with Fernandez stunning Sabalenka in three sets (their only meeting to date).

• No. 4 Jessica Pegula vs. Victoria Azarenka: Pegula and Azarenka have split six meetings, with Pegula winning the most recent — a three-set match in Charleston in 2024.

• No. 6 Ben Shelton vs. Adrian Mannarino: Mannarino has taken two of their three meetings, including in the 2024 Australian Open Round of 32, but Shelton won the most recent matchup (at the 2025 Canadian Open).

Colorado’s Post-Travis Hunter/Shedeur Sanders Era Begins vs. Georgia Tech

With Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter and starting QB Shedeur Sanders in the NFL, Deion Sanders’ Buffaloes will look mighty different this year. Not so for the Yellow Jackets, who bring back veterans such as seasoned quarterback Haynes King to a squad that went 7-6 a year ago.

Georgia Tech (0-0) vs. Colorado (0-0)
8pm ET on ESPN

• Spread: Georgia Tech -4.5 (-108), Colorado +4.5 (-112)

  • 64% of the money and 68% of the bets are with the Yellow Jackets

• Moneyline: Georgia Tech -178; Colorado +146

• Total (52.5): Over -105, Under -115 

Players to Watch (all stats 2024):

• Georgia Tech

  • QB Haynes King: 14 passing TDs; 2,114 passing yards, 72.9% completion; 2 INTs; 587 rushing yards; 11 rush TDs

  • RB Jamal Haynes: 169 carries for 944 yards (5.6 yards per rush) and 9 rushing TDs

  • WR Malik Rutherford: 62 receptions for 702 yards and 3 receiving TDs

  • LB Kyle Efford: 64 tackles; 3 sacks; 1 pass defended

• Colorado

  • QB Kaidon Salter: 15 passing TDs; 1,886 passing yards; 56.3% completion; 6 INTs; 587 rushing yards; 7 rush TDs

  • RB Micah Welch: 43 carries for 186 yards (4.3 yards per rush) and 4 rushing TDs

  • WR Sincere Brown: 61 receptions for 1,028 yards and 12 receiving TDs

  • CB DJ McKinney: 61 tackles; 3 INTs; 8 passes defended, 1 TD

In the News 

• Boise State didn’t just lose, the Broncos were blown out — and it could open up the College Football Playoff race.

• Taylor Townsend spoke out after being confronted by Jelena Ostapenko following their match at the U.S. Open on Wednesday.

• Michael Vick’s coaching debut at Norfolk State did not go the way he would have hoped.

• What the Micah Parsons trade says about Jerry Jones.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 11am: All-day U.S. Open coverage on ESPN/ESPN2/ESPN+

• 6:45pm: Braves vs. Phillies on Apple TV+

• 7pm: Western Michigan vs. Michigan State on FS1

• 7:30pm: Western Illinois vs. No. 12 Illinois on Peacock

• 8pm: Auburn vs. Baylor on FOX

• 8pm: Georgia Tech vs. Colorado on ESPN

• 8pm: Orlando Pride vs. Gotham FC on Prime Video

• 10:15pm: Orioles vs. Giants on Apple TV+

• 10:30pm: Central Michigan vs. San Jose State on FS1

Photo of the Day