Top Thursday Night Football Bets to Watch + NBA and CFB Insights

We also highlight 10 players trending up in fantasy football

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Las Vegas’s one-man show is back

2. Bets to Watch: Broncos give up third-fewest yards per game

3. NFL Fantasy: 10 players trending up leading into Week 10

4. By the Numbers: Both TNF teams are under .500 ATS

5. Overtime: Ranking the biggest NFL trades of the season

1. Leading Off

Raiders tight end Brock Bowers broke three NFL records as a rookie last season, and after an injury took him out of action for three weeks this year, on Sunday he showed it wasn’t a fluke. The tight end heads to Denver as the lone elite weapon on a struggling 2-6 team that just traded away its second-best receiver.

With Jakobi Meyers now in Jacksonville, Bowers is the clear top target in an offense that desperately needs help. Denver knows it, and the Broncos have the defense to do something about it: They lead the league with 40 sacks and allow just 18 points per game. They've won six straight games and are 8.5-point favorites at home against a Raiders team that looks overmatched in every way. But Bowers has a way of making defenses look silly.

After sitting out with a knee injury, he returned last week against Jacksonville and caught 12 passes for 127 yards and three touchdowns. It was a reminder that even when everyone in the stadium knows where the ball is going, he still finds a way to get open.

That's the challenge Denver faces on Thursday Night Football. The Broncos rank third in the league on defense and have held four opponents without a touchdown this season. Stopping a one-man offense should be easier than stopping a balanced attack. But Bowers keeps proving that the usual rules don't apply to him.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Bets to Watch

Broncos Defense is a Tough Matchup for Struggling Raiders Offense on TNF

By Chris Farley

Broncos -9 (-110 at BetMGM)
A deflating loss can't feel great for a Raiders' organization that's already downtrodden and without hope this season. A short week on the road won't help. Denver's defense is elite in every way, and we doubt…

3. NFL Fantasy

9 Players Trending Up That Might Be Available on Your League’s Waiver Wire (and 1 That You’d Be Very Lucky to Grab)

By Jack Dougherty

Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett @ Seahawks
Brissett has looked much better than starter Kyler Murray in this Cardinals offense. Since taking over for the injured Murray in Week 6, Brissett has put up 860 passing yards, seven total touchdowns, one interception and 65.3 fantasy points in three games. The Cardinals are skewing toward a pass-heavy offense with running backs James Conner and Trey Benson injured, and Brissett has proven to be effective pushing the ball downfield in this system. Even though the Seattle Seahawks have a nasty defense, Brissett is a top-15 QB option in Week 10.

Commanders QB Marcus Mariota vs. Lions
Jayden Daniels could be out for the rest of the season, making Mariota a priority waiver wire add this week. The veteran quarterback put up 20.28 points against the Raiders and 16.24 points against the Falcons in his first two starts this season. He struggled against the Chiefs with two interceptions and only 11.32 fantasy points, but that’s one of the toughest fantasy matchups for quarterbacks. The Commanders are nine-point underdogs against the Detroit Lions in Week 10, so they’re probably going to play from behind and need to air it out for most of the game. Mariota is a decent starting option in two-quarterback leagues. 

Vikings RB Aaron Jones vs. Ravens
The Minnesota Vikings have two running backs they trust, but Jones has been the more effective rusher since his return from injury. Over the last two weeks, Jones has recorded 93 rushing yards on 14 attempts, while Jordan Mason has mustered just 39 yards on the same number of carries. Jones should be in for an uptick in usage this week, setting him up for a strong fantasy performance against a Baltimore Ravens defense that ranks 29th in the NFL in points allowed to running backs. 

Panthers RB Rico Dowdle vs. Saints
Dowdle has officially cracked the elite tier of fantasy running backs. After splitting the backfield with Chuba Hubbard for two weeks, Dowdle took over the starting job in Week 9 and went off for 130 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries (28.1 PPR points) against the Packers. In three games as the clear RB1 in Carolina, Dowdle has averaged 29.0 touches, 204.7 total yards and 31.5 PPR points. Now that the Panthers have committed to Dowdle as their workhorse, he’s a top-seven fantasy RB going forward.

Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson @ Buccaneers
Henderson finally got his chance to shine in Week 9 with Rhamondre Stevenson out, and he put up 87 total yards and a season-high 12.7 PPR points against the Falcons. He unfortunately didn’t find the end zone, but his 75% snap share was a good sign of things to come. Stevenson didn’t practice on Tuesday. If he doesn’t suit up again in Week 10, Henderson will be an RB2 option against a Buccaneers defense that ranks 26th in points allowed to running backs. 

Jaguars WR Parker Washington @ Texans
If Washington is still available on your waiver wire, pick him up before reading the next sentence. With Travis Hunter hitting injured reserve, Washington led all Jags receivers in snaps (70), targets (nine), catches (eight) and receiving yards (90) against the Raiders in Week 9. Brian Thomas Jr. is still struggling to find a strong connection with Trevor Lawrence, but Washington managed to do it in the first game without Hunter on the field. The Texans present a tough matchup, but Washington is a decent flex play if you’re in a pinch. 

Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson @ Bears
Robinson has quietly been a target hog with Jaxson Dart under center. The slot receiver has recorded at least seven targets in four of his last five games, including double-digit targets in two of his last three. Now he gets to go up against a Bears defense that ranks 29th in points allowed per game (28.4), 31st in yards allowed per pass (8.2) and 30th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Robinson is a top-25 WR in Week 10.

Raiders WR Jack Bech @ Broncos
Bech isn’t a contender to crack your starting lineup in Week 10, but he’s an intriguing wide receiver to add to your bench. The Raiders are staring down a lost season, so they traded wide receiver Jakobi Meyers to the Jaguars at the deadline. The rest of the year will be focused on getting their young wide receivers involved, and Bech is at the top of that list. Bech, a second-round draft pick in 2025, is an explosive athlete with upside. The Raiders have to see what they have in him, so add Bech to your bench and see how his usage develops with Meyers now out of the picture.

Bears TE Colston Loveland vs. Giants
After a quiet start to the season, Loveland finally had his breakout game in Week 9. The rookie tight end torched the Cincinnati Bengals for a season-high six catches, 118 yards and two touchdowns (29.8 PPR points). Loveland is too dynamic as a pass-catcher and ball-carrier to take a back seat in this offense, and quarterback Caleb Williams knows it. The New York Giants have given up 105 points in their last three games and are still dealing with injuries in the secondary, so Loveland is a startable option in Week 10.

Saints TE Juwan Johnson @ Panthers
The Saints passing game wasn’t very impressive in quarterback Tyler Shough’s first career start, but Johnson was the only pass-catcher to find the end zone. Wide receiver Rashid Shaheed, who led the team with nine targets, is now on the Seahawks, opening the door for Johnson’s role to expand. The tight end could operate as New Orleans’ second-leading receiver going forward. He’s a borderline TE1 in Week 10 against a Panthers defense that ranks 20th in points allowed to tight ends.

4. By the Numbers

Both Raiders and Broncos are Below .500 Against the Spread and Played in More Unders than Overs

NFL

• Raiders (2-6, 1-3 Away) vs. Broncos (7-2, 4-0 Home)

  • Spread — Raiders (+8.5, -105), Broncos (-8.5, -115): 82% of the bets and 68% of the money is with Denver

    • LV: 3-5, DEN: 4-5

  • Moneyline — Raiders +430, Broncos -590

  • Total (42.5) — Over -112, Under -108

    • LV: 3-5, DEN: 3-6

NBA

• Clippers (3-4, 0-2 Away) vs. Suns (3-5, 3-1 Home)

  • Spread — Clippers (+2.5, -112), Suns (-2.5, -108): 67% of the money and 58% of the bets are with Phoenix

    • LAC: 1-6-0, PHX: 3-3-2

  • Moneyline — Clippers +118, Suns -138

  • Total (224.5) — Over -114, Under -106

    • LAC: 5-2, PHX: 5-3

  • Injuries — LAC: Harden and Leonard (out); PHX: Brooks (out), Jalen Green (probable)

CFB

• Georgia Southern (3-5, 1-3 Sun Belt) vs. App State (4-4, 1-3 Sun Belt)

  • Spread — Georgia Southern (+5.5, -106), App State (-5.5, -114): 74% of the money and 76% of the bets are with App State

    • GS: 4-4, App St: 4-4

  • Moneyline — Georgia Southern +176, App State -210

  • Total (61.5) — Over -110, Under -110

    • GS: 6-2, App St: 4-4

• UTSA (4-4, 2-2 American) vs. South Florida (6-2, 3-1 American)

  • Spread — UTSA (+13.5, -105), South Florida (-13.5, -115): 86% of the money and 74% of the bets are with USF

    • UTSA: 4-4, USF: 6-2

  • Moneyline — UTSA +410, South Florida -550

  • Total (67.5) — Over -110, Under -110

    • UTSA: 6-2, USF: 5-3

5. Overtime

In the News 

• CBS Sports ranks the major NFL trade deadline deals as teams moved the most players over the past 25 seasons — 27. The Colts prying away Sauce Gardner from the Jets is their No. 1 and Joe Flacco to the Bengals is No. 3.

• Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray was placed on the injured reserved list, meaning he will be out for at least the next four weeks, due to a foot injury. Murray could return in Week 14, but with Arizona in last in the NFC West at 3-5, there might not be much to play for at that point.

• Victor Wembanyama is one of the NBA’s top draws, but Yahoo Sports reports that it’ll be harder to watch the superstar than you’d think if you don’t live in San Antonio. Last night’s loss to the Lakers was only the Spurs’ second nationally televised game of the season, and they’re only slated to get that spotlight 22 times this year — not even in the top 10 of teams.

• ESPN takes a look at the early offseason MLB free agency and trade rumors. Where will the Kyles (Tucker and Schwarber) end up? Would the Tigers really trade their ace pitcher? What can New York’s teams do to be able to meet their fan bases’ expectations next year?

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7:30pm: UTSA vs. South Florida (CFB) on ESPN

• 8:15pm: Raiders vs. Broncos on Prime

• 9pm: Clippers vs. Suns on NBA TV