Monday Night Football Bets to Watch + Where Bettors Have Money Across NBA and MCBB

We also have our first look at where bettors have college basketball money this season

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: NFL competitive balance reaches new heights

2. The Rundown: Rodgers should be back for huge Steelers game next week

3. Game of the Day: Panthers, 49ers look to keep playoff pace on MNF

4. By the Numbers: Where bettors have NBA, college basketball money

5. Overtime: There are no more NFL teams undefeated on the road ATS

1. Leading Off

The split screen at the end of the 1pm window yesterday was all the NFL could want: There were four games within six points and the team that was behind was driving with less than two minutes to go — and the clock was nearly aligned for all four matchups. Two of those went to overtime: The Chiefs drove 87 yards to get a chip-shot field goal against the Colts, while the Lions needed a 59-yarder from kicker Jake Bates against the Giants.

That drive could have saved Kansas City’s season, as the Chiefs stopped the Colts on their opening extra possession, got the ball at the 10, and converted two third downs during a 81-yard drive that led to a game-winning 27-yard field goal. It was the Chiefs’ first win of the season in a one-score game (they’re now 1-5) after setting a record by going 12-0 last year. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs ran 69 yards for a touchdown on the Lions’ first play in overtime and the Detroit defense held the Giants without a score to get the win, move to 7-4, and keep pace in the NFC North.

The two non-OT games in that slate were a three-point Bears win over the Steelers to send Chicago to 8-3 (a win ahead of Green Bay and a game ahead of Detroit) and the Patriots’ six-point victory over the Bengals to move to 10-2.

There are only 12 teams that don’t have realistic playoff hopes anymore, six in each conference, and the Giants are the lone squad to be officially eliminated. Just three division leaders are 2+ games ahead of the second-place team — the Patriots are three wins up on the Bills in the AFC East, the Broncos are two games up on the Chargers in the AFC West, and the Eagles are still three wins up on the Cowboys in the NFC East even after blowing a 21-0 lead to Dallas yesterday.

— Abe Rakov

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2. The Rundown

Rodgers Should Be Back to Face Bills, Oregon Could Still Earn a CFP Bye

Oregon jumped Ole Miss and Texas Tech to get to No. 5 in the AP Top 25 college football poll. The Ducks look poised to earn a bye if a team ahead of them stumbles in a regular season finale or is punished for a conference championship game loss. That was the only movement in the top 12 in what was a less hectic Saturday than usual in college football. Michigan had the biggest jump of the week, moving up three spots to No. 15 as they look to beat No. 1 Ohio State for the fifth time in a row on Saturday.

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said he expects Aaron Rodgers to play against the Bills next week in a vital game for both teams coming off tough losses. Rodgers didn’t suit up in Pittsburgh’s 31-28 defeat to the Bears yesterday, though backup Mason Rudolph was a serviceable 24-31 for 171 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

CBS Sports has its initial overreactions from Sunday’s Week 12 action. Are the Chiefs back? Can the Bears win the NFC North? Will Shedeur Sanders keep the Browns’ starting quarterback job?

The Dallas Wings won the No. 1 pick in the WNBA draft for the second year in a row after a league-worst record gave the team a 42% chance to get the top selection in April. Dallas picked Paige Bueckers in the 2025 draft, and the former UConn star won the Rookie of the Year award and was named to the All-WNBA second team.

The Mets are reportedly getting second basemen Marcus Semien after agreeing to trade outfielder Brandon Nimmo to the Rangers. Semien played in 127 games for Texas last year, piling up 108 hits in 470 at bats (16 doubles, 15 home runs, 62 RBI and 50 walks). Nimmo, who has been with the Mets all 10 years of his career, played in a personal-best 155 games and had 154 hits in 587 at bats (25 home runs, 92 RBI and 50 walks).

3. Game of the Day

Young is Coming Off Career Performance for Panthers, Faces 5th-Worst Pass Defense

The often maligned, sometimes dazzling Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is coming off a career performance in a 30-27 overtime win at Atlanta: 31-45 for a franchise record 448 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. That was against what was a top-5 passing defense in the NFL. Now Young gets the league’s 5th-worst passing defense. Meanwhile, the 49ers have been third wheel with the Rams and Seahawks in the NFC West and are trying to prove they are contenders.

Panthers (6-5, 3-3 Away) vs. 49ers (7-4, 2-2 Home)
8:15pm on ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: Panthers (+7.5, -120), 49ers (-7.5, -102)

  • 70% of the money and 57% of the bets are with San Francisco

  • ATS — CAR (road): 4-2, SF (home): 1-3

• Moneyline: Panthers +320, 49ers -420

• Total (49.5): Over -110, Under -110

  • CAR: 6-5, SF: 7-4

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• 49ers QB Brock Purdy

  • Passing Yards (250.5): Over/Under -114 (200, 309, 277)

• Panthers QB Bryce Young

  • Passing Yards (204.5): Over/Under -114 (448, 124, 102)

  • Passing TDs (1.5): Over +124, Under -166 (0, 1, 1)

• Panthers RB Rico Dowdle

  • Rushing Yards (74.5): Over/Under -114 (45, 53, 130)

  • Touchdown: Anytime Scorer -145 (0, 1, 2)

• 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey

  • Rushing Yards (71.5): Over/Under -114 (81, 30, 106)

  • 2+ TDs: +150 (3, 0, 2)

• Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan

  • Receiving Yards (65.6): Over/Under -114 (130, 60, 46)

  • Touchdown: Anytime Scorer +145 (2, 0, 0)

• 49ers TE George Kittle

  • Receiving Yards (56.5): Over/Under -114 (67, 84, 32)

  • Touchdown: Anytime Scorer +120 (2, 1, 0)

*Stats listed are past 3 games, most recent to least recent

4. By the Numbers

Pistons are an NBA-Best 12-4 Against the Spread, Including 5-2 on the Road

NBA

• Pistons (-10, -110) vs. Pacers (+10, -110): 63% of the money and bets are with Detroit. ATS — DET: 12-4, IND: 7-9

• Mavericks (+8, -106) vs. Heat (-8, -114): 76% of the money and 62% of the bets are with Miami. ATS — DAL: 7-11-0, MIA: 12-4-1

• Trail Blazers (+2, -114) vs. Bucks (-2.5, -106): 65% of the money and 53% of the bets are with Milwaukee. ATS — POR: 8-8, MIL: 7-10

• Bulls (-5, -110) vs. Pelicans (+5, -110): 91% of the money and 80% of the bets are with Chicago. ATS — CHI: 8-7-1, NOP: 8-8-1

• Nuggets (-7.5, -110) vs. Grizzlies (+7.5, -110): 86% of the money and 82% of the bets are with Denver. ATS — DEN: 10-6, MEM: 6-11

• Rockets (-5.5, -112) vs. Suns (+5.5, -108): 69% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Houston. ATS — HOU: 9-5, PHX: 10-4-2

MCBB

• Creighton (+3.5, -110) vs. Baylor (-3.5, -110): 80% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Baylor. ATS — CRE: 1-3, BAY: 1-2

• No. 24 Kansas (-4.5, -110) vs. Notre Dame (+4.5, -110): 91% of the money and 74% of the bets are with Kansas. ATS — KU: 2-3, ND: 3-2

• No. 14 St. John’s (+1.5, -102) vs. No. 16 Iowa State (-1.5, -120): 81% of the money and 66% of the bets are with St. John’s. ATS — SJU: 3-1, ISU: 3-1

• USC (-5.5, -110) vs. Boise State (+5.5, -110): 67% of the money and 58% of the bets are with Boise State. ATS — USC: 3-1, BSU: 2-2

• No. 2 Houston (-12.5, -102) vs. Syracuse (+12.5, -120): 66% of the money and 62% of the bets are with Houston. ATS — HOU: 2-3, SYR: 3-1

• No. 22 Auburn (-3.5, -102) vs. Oregon (+3.5, -120): 93% of the money and 79% of the bets are with Auburn. ATS — AUB: 4-1, ORE: 0-4

• No. 13 Gonzaga (-3.5, -102) vs. No. 11 Alabama (+3.5, -120): 87% of the money and 83% of the bets are with Alabama. ATS — GON: 4-1, ALA: 2-2

• Arizona State (+6.5, -102) vs. Texas (-6.5, -120): 94% of the money and 74% of the bets are with Texas. ATS — ASU: 3-2, UT: 3-2

5. Overtime

Stat of the Day

5-1: Both NFL teams with a perfect road record against the spread won their games but lost their 5-0 marks, as the Patriots beat the Bengals by 6 (-7.5) and the Seahawks defeated the Titans by 6 (-11.5).

Streaking

More than 43% of the NFL is currently on a run of 3+ wins or losses:

• Wins: Patriots (9), Broncos (8), Rams (6), Ravens (5), Bears (4), Texans (3)

• Losses: Titans, Commanders, and Giants (6), Raiders (5), Bengals (4), Cardinals, Vikings, Buccaneers (3)

Quotable

“And I’m like, ‘No, no, no. Whatever. We’ll celebrate this when we win. I don’t want to hear anything about that right now.’” — Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott on what he said after teammates started congratulating him when he became Dallas’s all-time leader in passing yards in the third quarter. Dallas was down 21-7 at the time but won 24-21.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 1pm: No. 20 Tennessee vs. Rutgers [MCBB] on TNT

• 2:30pm: Seton Hall vs. No. 25 NC State [MCBB] on ESPN2

• 3:30pm: Notre Dame vs. No. 24 Kansas [MCBB] on TNT

• 4:30pm: No. 14 St. John’s vs. No. 16 Iowa State [MCBB] on truTV

• 7pm: Cavaliers vs. Raptors on Peacock (or Blues vs. Rangers on NHL Network)

• 8:15pm: Panthers vs. 49ers on ESPN

• 9:30pm: Rockets vs. Suns on Peacock (or No. 13 Gonzaga vs. No. 11 Alabama [MCBB] on TNT)