Monday Night Football Insights and Bets to Watch

We also look at where early Week 15 NFL bettors put their money

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: The Bills’ comeback might be exactly what they needed

2. The Rundown: Minnesota set a (halfway-good) record in a season to forget

3. Game of the Day: Herbert injury hangs over Eagles vs. Chargers on MNF

4. By the Numbers: Where early Week 15 NFL spread bettors are looking

5. Overtime: Notre Dame calls the CFP a “farce”

1. Leading Off

In a four-minute stretch, the Bills not only saved their season, they might have earned their way back into real contender status. Buffalo was only facing 4-8 Cincinnati, but it was a different team with superstar quarterback Joe Burrow back under center. The Bengals led into the fourth quarter and looked like they even had a chance for an improbable playoff run in a very mediocre AFC North.

Then, down 28-18 with about 7:35 remaining, reining NFL MVP Josh Allen scrambled 40 yards for a touchdown — the longest scoring run of his career. After a couple of first downs to start the next possession, the Bengals looked in control. But Burrow threw two interceptions in his next two plays on offense, including a pick six, ruining a stellar game and his chance at a hero’s march to the postseason.

The Bills are now 9-4, just two games behind the Patriots in the AFC East, and they travel to New England on Sunday. The Allen-led comeback could be exactly what Buffalo needed to snap back into form, and a date with the AFC’s co-leaders is a perfect measuring stick for the Bills’ renewed Super Bowl aspirations.

In other Week 14 action, the Packers beat the Bears at Lambeau to take control of the NFC North. The Broncos won their 10th straight and are atop the AFC. The Texans won their fifth straight and all but ended Kansas City’s reign in the conference by blanking the Chiefs 10-0 in the fourth quarter. Jacksonville beat Indianapolis and is a game up on Indy and Houston in the AFC South, but Colts quarterback Daniel Jones is likely out for the rest of the season. The Steelers hung on to the beat the Ravens in Baltimore to maintain control in the the AFC North. And Tampa Bay inexplicably lost to 3-10 New Orleans, dropping the Buccaneers to a tie with the idle Panthers for the NFC South lead.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. In one week, Sportmoney turns into Sportspage. You’ll still get the insights, data, and analysis you’ve come to expect, plus even more. Sportmoney will become our premium sports betting product and will relaunch in 2026, so stay tuned. Starting next Monday, look for Sportspage in your inbox!

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2. The Rundown

Jets Officially Eliminated From Playoffs, Continuing Longest Current Postseason Drought in NFL

• The College Football Playoff field is set, with Miami replacing Notre Dame to take the final at-large spot. Indiana earned the No. 1 seed, while Alabama wasn’t punished for its loss to No. 3 Georgia in the SEC championship. No. 2 Ohio State and No. 4 Texas Tech joined Indiana and Georgia to earn byes. The first round matchups are: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 James Madison, No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 Tulane, No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Miami, and No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Alabama. Every other bowl game was also announced yesterday.

• Four more teams were officially eliminated from the NFL playoffs, bringing the total for the season to nine. The Browns, Commanders, Falcons and Jets will all miss the postseason. New York last made the playoffs in 2010, more than double next-longest drought. Atlanta’s last postseason run was in 2017, which also happens to be the next-longest streak (along with Carolina), and Cleveland earned its last playoff berth just two years ago. The Commanders made it to the NFC Championship game last season.

• McLaren driver Lando Norris won the Formula 1 championship in the last race of the season, ending Red Bull’s Max Verstappen’s run of four straight titles. Verstappen won the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, but all Norris needed to do to earn his first championship was get third, which is exactly where he finished. Verstappen ended up in second in the standings, just two points behind, while Norris’s teammate Oscar Piastri was second in the race and third overall on the year.

• A secondary committee named Jeff Kent to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Kent, who played for six teams and was named an All Star while on three of them, holds the record for home runs by a second baseman. Those eligible who didn’t make the cut: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Gary Sheffield, and Fernando Valenzuela, who, according to ESPN, “can be nominated again in a subsequent cycle, but if they fall short of five votes again, they will not be eligible for future consideration.”

• The Vikings became the first team in NFL history to earn a shutout a week after being shut out after their 31-0 win over the Commanders, who have now lost eight in a row. Embattled Minnesota quarterback J.J. McCarthy was a tidy 16-23 for 163 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions, while Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels re-injured his elbow.

3. Game of the Day

Chargers Surrender 3rd-Fewest Yards in NFL But Eagles Give Up Slightly Less Points Per Game

The Eagles have lost two in a row but are still comfortably atop the NFC East because they’re the only team in the division with a winning record. The Chargers have won four of five and currently in the sixth slot in the AFC, which will be hard to improve on but easy to fall from — unfortunately for the Bolts. Los Angeles still relies on its elite defense, giving up the third fewest yards per game (275.5), while quarterback Justin Herbert is questionable with an injury on his non-throwing hand. Philadelphia is trying to avoid its first three-game losing streak since Weeks 13-15 in 2023, which ruined the Eagles’ 10-1 start in a season that ultimately ended in disappointing first round playoff exit.

Eagles (8-4, 4-2 Away) vs. Chargers (8-4, 5-2 Home)
8:15pm on ABC/ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: Eagles (-2.5, -105), Chargers (+2.5, -115)

  • 73% of the money and 74% of the bets are with Philadelphia

  • ATS | PHI (road): 4-2, LAC (home): 3-2-1

• Moneyline: Eagles -134, Chargers +114

• Total (41.5): Over -115, Under -105

  • PHI: 5-7, LAC: 6-6

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• LAC QB Justin Herbert (Q) | Pass Yards: 209.5 (151, 81, 220), Pass TD: 1.5 (2, 0, 1), Pass Attempts: 31.5 (20, 18, 33) Rush Yards: 19.5 (8, 21, 19)

• PHI QB Jalen Hurts | Pass Yards: 187.5 (230, 289, 135), Pass TD: 1.5 (2, 1, 0), Pass Attempts: 28.5 (34, 39, 28), Rush Yards: 28.5 (31, 33, 31), Anytime TD: +105 (0, 2, 1)

• LAC WR Ladd McConkey | Rec Yards: 51.5 (39, 13, 107), Receptions: 4.5 (4, 3, 4), Anytime TD: +210 (1, 0, 1)

• PHI WR DeVonta Smith | Rec Yards: 56.5 (00), Receptions: 4.5 (00)

• PHI RB Saquon Barkley | Rush Yards: 70.5 (56, 22, 83), Rush Attempts: 17.5 (13, 10, 26) Anytime TD: +105 (0, 0, 0)

*Stats listed are past 3 games, most recent to least recent

4. By the Numbers

Pelicans Are 7-5-1 ATS at Home But Are a League-Worst 3-21 Overall (2-11 in New Orleans)

NBA

Kings (6-17, 3-10 Away) vs. Pacers (5-18, 4-8 Home)

• SAC (+3.5, -106), IND (-3.5, -114): 57% of the money and 52% of the bets are with Indiana

  • SAC (road): 6-7, IND (home): 7-5

• Total (234.5) | SAC: 10-13, IND: 9-14

• IND F Pascal Siakam | Points: 25.5 (36, 23, 26), Reb: 7.5 (10, 3, 7), Ast: 3.5 (1, 4, 2)

• IND G Andrew Nembhard | Points: 16.5 (15, 16, 21), Reb: 2.5 (2, 3, 4), Ast: 6.5 (7, 7, 6)

Suns (13-10, 5-6 Away) vs. Timberwolves (15-8, 8-3 Home)

• PHX (+9.5, -108), MIN (-9.5, -112): 51% of the money is with Minnesota but 54% of the bets are with Phoenix

  • PHX (road): 7-4, MIN (home): 5-6

• Total (224.5): PHX: 11-12, MIN: 12-11

• PHX F Dillon Brooks | Points: 22.5 (23, 33, 27), Reb: 3.5 (4, 2, 3)

• MIN F Julius Randle | Points: 20.5 (24, 28, 16), Reb: 6.5 (3, 9, 5), Ast: 5.5 (6, 3, 6)

Spurs (15-7, 6-5 Away) vs. Pelicans (3-21, 2-11 Home)

• SA (-9.5, -110), NO (+9.5, -110): 55% of the money is with New Orleans but 52% of the bets are with San Antonio

  • SA (road): 7-4, NO (home): 7-5-1

• Total (236.5): SA: 12-10, NO: 14-10

• SA G De’Aaron Fox | Points: 23.5 (25, 31, 29), Reb: 4.5 (5, 5, 4), Ast: 5.5 (9, 5, 4)

• NO F Trey Murphy | Points 21.5 (23, 21, 33), Reb: 5.5 (5, 7, 15), Ast: 3.5 (5, 8, 4)

Early Week 15 NFL

• Jets (+11.5, -110) vs. Jaguars (-11.5, -110): 93% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Jacksonville

  • ATS | NYJ (road): 3-1-1, JAX (home): 5-1

• Cardinals (+9.5, -108) vs. Texans (-9.5, -112): 79% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Houston

  • ATS | ARI (road): 5-1, HOU (home): 4-2

• Raiders (+12.5, -110) vs. Eagles (-12.5, -110): 83% of the money and 68% of the bets are with Philadelphia

  • ATS | LV (road): 2-4, PHI (home): 3-3

• Ravens (-2.5, -106) vs. Bengals (+2.5, -114): 86% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Cincinnati

  • ATS | BAL (road): 2-3, CIN (home): 3-3

• Browns (+7.5, -118) vs. Bears (-7.5, -104): 86% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Chicago

  • ATS | CLE (road): 1-5, CHI (home): 3-2

• Titans (+12.5, -108) vs. 49ers (-12.5, -112): 70% of the money and 71% of the bets are with San Francisco

  • ATS | TEN (road): 3-3, SF (home): 2-3

• Colts (+10.5, -115) vs. Seahawks (-10.5, -105): 91% of the money and 76% of the bets are with Seattle

  • ATS | IND (road): 2-3-1, SEA (home): 4-2

5. Overtime

Quotable

“Farce and total waste of time." — Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua to ESPN on the College Football Playoff rankings that are released the weeks before the final one. The Fighting Irish were ranked No. 9 or 10 and ahead of Miami in each of the five versions released prior to yesterday but were dropped below the Hurricanes and out of the playoff in the poll that mattered — despite the fact that neither team played. Notre Dame decided to forgo participating in a bowl game in protest of the committee’s decision. Unrelated, but Iowa State and Kansas State are also skipping bowl games due to coaching changes, and each owe the Big 12 $500,000 for their decisions.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 3pm: Wolves vs. Manchester United on USA

• 7:30pm: Suns vs. Timberwolves on Peacock (Lightning vs. Maple Leafs on NHL Network)

• 8:15pm: Eagles vs. Chargers on ABC/ESPN