Fantasy Preview: Chiefs are Better in Real Life Than in Fantasy

By Craig Williams

What’s going to give in 2025? A Super Bowl loss often serves as an insurmountable hurdle for teams to overcome, but it’s difficult to envision this Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid-led Chiefs team failing to miss the playoffs — after all, they haven’t missed the Super Bowl in three seasons. They’re -110 to win the AFC West, the shortest price in the division, but there is optimism surrounding the rival Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos. The path to the postseason promises to be more difficult for the Chiefs, but we’re not willing to bet against them.

Odds to Make Playoffs: -380 at DraftKings

• Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes

  • Last Season: 16 games, 392-581, 67.5%, 3,928 passing yards, 6.8 Y/A, 245.5 Y/G, 26 TD, 11 INT

  • The narrative heading into the season is that Patrick Mahomes will play 2025 with a chip on his shoulder. It’s possible it’s only a fun offseason storyline, but perhaps there’s something to it from a fantasy perspective. Mahomes suggested the Chiefs will be able to play more freely in 2025 with a slightly smaller share of the league spotlight. If that means a more aggressive — and efficient — offense, Mahomes could be in for a more statistically prolific season.

• Running Back: Brashard Smith 

  • Last Season (at SMU): 14 games, 235 carries, 1,332 yards, 5.7 Y/C, 14 Rush TD, 39 receptions, 329 yards, 4 Rec TD

  • The Chiefs have not been a dominant rushing team in recent seasons, averaging 1,549 yards from scrimmage from their top two backs across the past three seasons. KC isn’t expected to take a “ground & pound” approach in 2025, meaning the best approach to the Chiefs backfield from a fantasy perspective is to invest in the cheapest asset. And that’s Smith in this case. 

• Wide Receiver: Xavier Worthy 

  • Last Season: 17 games, 59 receptions, 98 targets, 638 yards, 10.8 average, 9 TD (3 rushing), 5 20+ receptions, 37.5 yards/game, 407 yards after catch

  • If Worthy carries his playoff production (15.1 yards per reception, three touchdowns) into the upcoming season, he’ll have the chance to give the Chiefs a downfield dynamic they haven’t enjoyed since Tyreek Hill. Volume will be key for Worthy’s fantasy production. He’s expected to share targets with Rashee Rice and a trimmed down Travis Kelce. FanDuel sets Worthy’s over/under for receiving yardage at 825.5. That’s a modest full-season outlook from a fantasy perspective, but he offers a high ceiling from game to game.

• Tight End: Travis Kelce 

  • Last Season: 16 games, 97 receptions, 133 targets, 823 yards, 8.5 average, 3 TD, 9 20+ receptions, 51.4 yards/game, 341 yards after catch

  • Kelce hauled in 97 receptions in 2024, but he was a far cry from the fantasy weapon he was in his prime. He slimmed down this offseason in an effort to rebound in what could be his final season. We’re hesitant to suggest that he’s a quality investment though. An improved Kelce may be an important piece for the Chiefs in real football, but that doesn’t necessarily mean his production will translate to fantasy formats. FanDuel puts Kelce’s over/under at 675.5 receiving yards, providing context into what his fantasy expectations should be.

• Defense

  • Last Season: 22.6 points per game, 43.3% 3rd down, 52.2% 4th down, 13 interceptions, 39 sacks, 15 fumbles caused, 7 fumbles recovered, 1 touchdown

  • The Chiefs leaned heavily on a defense that finished fourth in points allowed (19.2/game), but its effectiveness didn’t translate into prolific fantasy production. Fantasy managers are accustomed to streaming defenses, and the Chiefs are more of a premium streaming option than one that warrants being targeted in drafts. The Chiefs’ track record under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is strong, but there can be a disconnect between what makes a defense good in real life and what produces fantasy points.