College Football Playoff Begins New Year With More Quarterfinals

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: The CFP is still looking for a close game

• College Football: Ohio State could exploit Oregon’s struggling run defense

• NBA: The Magic posted a bottom-5 offensive rating in December

• NBA: The 76ers were top-10 in net rating in December

• Golf: Collin Morikawa has never finished below T7 at The Sentry

• Game of the Day: Notre Dame vs. Georgia

• Overtime: Anthony Edwards has made his pick for NBA MVP

New Year, new College Football Playoff outcomes? That has to be what the committee is hoping for, after the opening quarterfinal saw Penn State beat Boise State in yet another underwhelming result.

Two of the remaining matchups at least figure to be closer; Texas (-13.5 at FanDuel) vs. Arizona State looks like a blowout on paper, but after that comes Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Oregon and Notre Dame vs. Georgia (-1.5). UPDATE: Notre Dame vs. Georgia has been postponed.

In today’s newsletter, Jack covers college football, Craig and Chris look at the NBA, and Jack is also tracking the first golf tournament of 2025.

— Patrick Dorsey

Ohio State Looks to Exploit Oregon’s Struggling Run Defense

By Jack Dougherty

Ohio State team total over 28.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

The first round featured the Ohio State we expect to see every week. The Buckeyes put up 473 yards (7.4 yards per play) and 42 points against Tennessee’s 4th-ranked scoring defense, and we’re predicting that carries over to the quarterfinals. Ohio State already dropped 31 on Oregon earlier in the season, and the Ducks have only gone backward defensively since then. Oregon gave up 292 rushing yards to Penn State in the Big Ten Championship. The Buckeyes should be able to exploit this leaky run defense with TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins all night.

Quinshon Judkins 60+ rushing yards (+150 at DraftKings)

Oregon’s run defense is this team’s biggest weakness right now. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen rumbled for 229 rushing yards on 24 carries (9.5 yards per carry) in the Big Ten title game. Ohio State can replicate that offensive attack with Judkins and Henderson. We’re looking to target Judkins, whose rushing prop is lower than Henderson’s despite him leading the team in rush attempts in 12 of 13 games this season. The Ole Miss transfer averages 64.5 rushing yards per game, so there’s some value here at +150. 

Georgia vs. Notre Dame first half under 21.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

It’s hard to predict exactly what Georgia’s offense will look like with Gunner Stockton under center instead of Carson Beck, but odds are this will be a much more run-heavy approach. Stockton rushed eight times and attempted only 16 passes for 71 yards and an interception in relief of Beck in the SEC Championship. With plenty of time to prepare, Kirby Smart and Mike Bobo likely drew up a run-heavy game plan to avoid mistakes and ease Stockton into his first start against Notre Dame’s 3rd-ranked scoring defense. ND also figures to want to keep the ball on the ground, so this first half could fly by.

Magic Posted Bottom-5 Offensive Rating in December

By Craig Williams

Jazz +13.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

The Knicks are entering a situation rife with “trap game” elements. They just finished a 3-0 road trip, and they’re coming home for one game before hitting the road again, namely for a visit with the West-leading Oklahoma City Thunder in an NBA TV spot. With all of that considered, it’s not unreasonable to suggest there might be other things beyond the 7-24 Jazz occupying the Knicks’ focus tonight. We’re certainly not predicting that the Knicks will lose, particularly with the run they’re enjoying, but the Jazz are 10-7 against the spread as road underdogs and have covered five of their past six.

Karl-Anthony Towns under 13.5 rebounds (-136 at FanDuel)

Towns has been cleaning up the glass of late, averaging 14.3 rebounds in December. We suspect he’ll deliver another strong night on the boards. We’re just fading a stellar night. The Jazz are shooting better in recent contests, and they’re playing well relative to expectations — 5-1 against the spread over the past six games. Plus the Knicks will almost certainly shoot better than the 39% from the field they produced in their November meeting when Towns pulled down eight offensive rebounds, so this is a situation where the overall rebounding pie might be a bit low in calories.

Raptors +1 (-112 at DraftKings)

We’re throwing out the stats for this one. Tonight should be a pride game for the Raptors, who were demolished by 54 points last night at the hands of the Celtics. They shot horrendously and allowed the Celtics to convert at a 54% clip, including 51.2% from 3-point range. The best thing for the Raptors is they get to take the floor in the immediate wake of that humiliating defeat, and the Nets figure to be be on the receiving end of whatever frustration and embarrassment the Raptors are able to exorcise.

Pistons moneyline (-125 at ESPNBET)

The Magic have struggled offensively in recent weeks. They posted a bottom-five offensive rating in December, and remain without their top players in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Detroit’s improving defense has become more porous as the season has progressed, but we can see them doing enough at home, and with the advantage in star power to edge past the Magic, who struggle away from the Kia Center.

Magic under 106.5 points (-115 Fanatics)

Tonight’s Pistons vs. Magic matchup doesn’t look like the game hoops fans should be tuning into. We mentioned the absences of Banchero and Wagner for the Magic, and they have a number of other key players out or banged up. They’ve been second to last in offensive efficiency over their past three games, ranking even worse than the Charlotte Hornets. That’s a tiny sample size, but it carries more weight considering the offensive struggles the Magic have experienced for a few weeks now. They’ve scored under 107 points in five of their past seven and nine of 13 December games overall.

Bulls -5.5 (-110 at bet365)

We’ll stop short of calling the Bulls hot or anything of that nature, but they’ve won and covered two straight. They’re entering a road tilt with the Wizards, who are arguably the worst team in the NBA. Even their recent 5-4 stretch against the spread comes with caveats — two covers came against the Hornets and two more came as 16.5- and 17.5-point underdogs. The Bulls beat the Wizards by 19 in their November meeting, which was also in Washington, and we anticipate another comfortable victory, especially with Jordan Poole (hip) questionable to play.

Bilal Coulibaly -0.5 points vs. Josh Giddey (-115 at DraftKings)

We’re operating under the assumption that Jordan Poole will be rusty at best — he might not even play — keeping Coulibaly in the slightly elevated role he’s enjoyed over the past few games. He averaged 16.3 points on 14.4 shot attempts in nine December games, and we’re anticipating another relatively voluminous showing from Coulibaly tonight. Meanwhile, Giddey averaged 12.8 points on 11 shot attempts across his own nine December games. He has also fared much better at home, both in terms of efficiency and pure production.

76ers Posted Top-10 Net Rating in December

By Chris Farley

Mavericks team total over 108 (-110 at BetOnline)

The Mavericks are without star Luka Doncic, but that doesn't mean they'll be completely out-of-sorts on New Year's Day. For starters, the Mavericks are an impressive 7-4 without Luka, and that includes an outlier game on Monday where they sat virtually all of their starters. Over 10 games without Luka (we're not including that last one), Dallas has averaged a healthy 115.4 points per game. The Rockets remain one of the best defenses in the NBA, but for what it's worth, they've sunk to 11th in defensive efficiency over their past seven games. Dallas' familiarity with their opponent and the revenge factor means this number is far too low.

Kyrie Irving over 26.5 points (-111 at FanDuel)

If there's one guy who consistently steps up when Luka is out, it's Kyrie Irving. The superstar veteran point guard is still one of the best pure scorers in the association, and we believe Dallas will rely on him early and often in this important matchup. For starters, Irving has had no issue picking up the slack with Doncic out, averaging 26 points per game (his overall average is 24.6). He's also had some of his highest scoring performances against the Rockets the past two seasons, putting up 28, 48, 24, and 27 in four previous meetings. 

Hawks vs. Nuggets over 246.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

This total is already on the rise. There are so many reasons to bet the over in this matchup, it's almost scary. The Hawks and Nuggets combined for 151 points in the first meeting, a clash where the visiting Nuggets shot an absurd 63% from the field. Needless to say, the Hawks didn't play much defense (nor did they shoot well, just 40.6%), and although their resistance has improved this isn't a team we trust against Denver, whose offense is second only to Cleveland last month. Other important factors — like the fact that Atlanta and Denver both ran at a top-5 tempo in December — only send this angle over the top.

Hawks +5.5 (-105 at Bovada)

There's no denying that the 2024-25 Hawks are blossoming into a more complete team. Coach Quin Snyder continues to prove his worth as a transformative leader, and already in year three the Hawks look like a formidable playoff contender. Rating 13th on both offense and defense in December, Atlanta's well-balanced style of play has led to an 11-4 record since November 27th. The Nuggets are playing well but they're still too inconsistent to trust at a number this big, and their defense rated as a pedestrian 23rd last month. We like the visiting team to keep it close.

76ers +6.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

These are two teams going in opposite directions. The 76ers have climbed from one of the worst programs in the association to a top-10 net-rated team in December, boasting an 11-3 record since Nov. 30. The return of Joel Embiid and more consistent play from their other two stars, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey, have been major catalysts for a team that was searching for answers in the early fall. The Kings fired Mike Brown, a coach that's beloved across the league, and still struggled to beat a makeshift B-lineup against Dallas on Monday.

76ers vs. Kings under 224 (-110 at FanDuel and DraftKings)

Low-scoring, slow-moving games are the norm for the 76ers and this qualifies as another contest where they can play their style of basketball. Firstly, the Kings' offense hasn't been as proficient all season, but they're especially challenged beyond the arc. Sacramento makes 3-pointers at a lowly 33.9% clip (24th), and Philly isn't any better (33.8%, 25th). Both programs excel inside the arc, but the return of Embiid means the Sixers become their best defensive version, a group that's held its last four opponents to just 108.5 points per game. Sacramento at home also gives us an inflated number.

Collin Morikawa Has Never Finished Worse Than T7 at The Sentry

By Jack Dougherty

Nick Dunlap to win (+7500 at FanDuel)

Dunlap is the exact type of streaky, high-upside player we want to target this week. The consistency isn’t there yet for the young gun, but his best can take down this field. It was less than a year ago when Dunlap out-dueled Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele at The American Express to win his first PGA Tour title. He turned pro shortly after and won a few months later at the Barracuda Championship. What did those two tournaments have in common? They were birdie-fests that demanded a hot putter and the ability to go low, and that’s exactly what we have this week at Kapalua.

Harry Hall top-20 finish (+200 at DraftKings)

Hall has been playing some impressively consistent golf dating back to July when he picked up his first PGA Tour victory at the ISCO Championship. On his last 11 worldwide starts, Hall has recorded eight top-25 finishes and five top-15s. The Englishman has also gained strokes from putting in 13 straight starts, which should give him an advantage this week. The Sentry can turn into a putting contest due to how easy it is to hit fairways and greens at Kapalua Plantation Course, and there aren’t many players rolling it better than Hall. 

Collin Morikawa top-10 finish (+110 at FanDuel)

We normally like to gun for bigger prices in finishing position markets, but Morikawa’s track record at Kapalua is impossible to ignore. In five career starts at The Sentry, the American hasn’t finished worse than T7. He should’ve won the tournament in 2023 but inexplicably blew a six-shot lead to Jon Rahm in the final round. If you take out his 72 from that day, Morikawa’s scoring average is 66.3 over his last 11 rounds at Kapalua. Coming off a second-place finish in the FedEx Cup standings, Morikawa should keep that momentum rolling into the new year.

Notre Dame vs. Georgia: UGA (-1.5) Remains Favorite Even with Backup QB Taking Over Offense

UPDATE: This game has been postponed following Wednesday’s deadly truck attack in New Orleans.

The Sugar Bowl gets a heavyweight matchup tonight with Notre Dame taking on Georgia for a spot in the CFP semifinal in the Orange Bowl. The Bulldogs come in as a slight favorite even with Carson Beck out for the playoffs. Here’s where FanDuel has the game:

• Spread: Georgia -1.5 (-115); Notre Dame +1.5 (-105)

  • Georgia 4-9; Notre Dame 11-2

  • 66% of the spread money is with the Bulldogs

• Moneyline: Georgia -110; Notre Dame -110

  • Georgia 11-2; Notre Dame 12-1

• Total (45.5): Over -110 / Under -110

  • Georgia 6-7; Notre Dame 7-6

No. 7 Notre Dame (12-1) vs. No. 2 Georgia (11-2)
8:45pm on ESPN

Players to Watch:

• Notre Dame

  • QB Riley Leonard: 17 passing TD; 2,293 passing yards, 66.8% completion; 15 rushing TDs; 6 INTs

  • RB Jeremiyah Love: 142 carries for 1,057 yards (7.4 yards per rush) and 16 rushing TDs

  • WR Beaux Collins: 36 receptions for 445 yards and 2 receiving TDs

  • S Xavier Watts: 60 tackles; 6 INTs; 8 pass deflections, 1 fumble recovery

• Georgia

  • RB Nate Frazier: 129 carries for 634 yards (4.9 yards per rush) and 8 rushing TDs

  • WR Arian Smith: 47 receptions for 750 yards and 4 receiving TDs

  • DB Malaki Starks: 73 tackles; 1 INT; 3 pass deflections

  • DB Daylen Everette: 53 tackles; 3 INTs; 2 forced fumbles; 1 sack

In the News 

• Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham got a nice gift on the eve of his first College Football Playoff game.

• Anthony Edwards has revealed who his NBA MVP is so far.

• The Cowboys have cut Ezekiel Elliott — and Jerry Jones says it’s for Elliott’s benefit.

• Dartmouth’s men’s basketball team has abruptly dropped its unionization effort.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 1pm: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State in the College Football Playoff on ESPN

• 5pm: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon in the College Football Playoff on ESPN

• 8:45pm: No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia in the College Football Playoff on ESPN

Photo of the Day