Broncos Defense, Rookie QB Look to Shine on MNF + 8 NBA Bets to Watch

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: A huge win

• NFL: Broncos allow just 16.8 points per game (2nd in NFL)

• NBA: 4 of the past 5 Timberwolves’ games have gone under tonight’s total (219)

• More NBA: Bulls play at the league’s fastest pace and score the 4th-most points

• Overtime: Would the Jets bench Aaron Rodgers?

I want to start off today by congratulating our very own Chris Farley on winning $150,000 with a first place finish in the Circa Sports Million Pro Football quarterly contest. It’s his second Circa prize in the past three years. We told you Sportmoney writers give you expert insights and analysis! Congrats, Chris.

There are still five weeks to go in the NFL season, but the playoff picture is slowly starting to take shape. The Bills clinched the AFC East with their win yesterday and the Chiefs have earned a playoff spot. Only the Patriots, Raiders and Giants have been officially eliminated from the postseason.

The Lions (+290) are the current betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, followed by the Eagles and Bills (+500), Chiefs (+550), Ravens (+1000), and Packers (+1400) — odds via FanDuel.

In today’s newsletter, Chris is covering Monday Night Football, and Craig and Jack have the (light) NBA slate. Hope your Monday is half as good as Chris’s weekend.

— Abe Rakov

Jeudy, Facing Former Team, is Averaging 95 Yards per Game Over Past 4 Contests

By Chris Farley

Broncos -6 (-115 at DraftKings and BetOnline)
The Broncos have won seven of their last 10 games and continue to impress. Equipped with a rising, young defense that's top-5 in every major category, first-year quarterback Bo Nix has only gotten better as the season wanes on, now posted as the 2nd odds-on-favorite to win offensive rookie of the year. Cleveland is off an emotional win against Pittsburgh in the snow at home, but they've only won one road game all year and we know that AFC North battles are outliers. Away from home, the Browns are 0-4 with a -12.5 point differential since Week 4.

Browns vs. Broncos under 42 points (-105 at Bookmaker)
Few defenses, if any, have been as consistent as the Broncos' this season. Denver is top-five in opponent points and yards per game, opponent points and yards per play, and opponent yards per pass and rush, and no program is better in the red-zone (they allow a TD on just 39.39% of red-zone possessions). On the other side, we know the Browns' defense is talented, despite an array of rankings in the bottom-third this season. It helps this wager that the Broncos lack explosiveness (23rd in yards per play) and prefer to run, which means this game profiles as a slow, methodical, hard-hitting war. 

Jameis Winston over 0.5 interceptions (-146 at FanDuel)
Jameis Winston is coming off one of the most emotional wins of his career, an AFC North battle where he willed his team to a victory at home against the top-ranked Steelers. Unfortunately for Winston, we believe regression is looming. The journeyman quarterback has thrown as many interceptions as he has starts this season (4), and few programs are as stingy as Denver against the pass (2nd in sack rate, 2nd in opponent yard per pass). Since we expect Cleveland to play from behind, we see the ball in Winston's hands more often, and he's bound to force some desperate throws. 

Bo Nix anytime TD (+280 at FanDuel)
At first glance, many would have said that Bo Nix did not look like a NFL starter. Shaky in his accuracy and looking tense in the pocket, Nix had some challenging moments early this year, but it's clear now that Sean Payton has something special with the former Oregon thrower. Nix has notched four rush touchdowns and 300 yards on the ground this season, unafraid to take off and built to take hits most quarterbacks cannot. Cleveland allows 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game (28th), along with a 23rd-ranked 4.7 yards per carry allowed. When the Browns tighten up in the red-zone, we like Nix to take advantage.

Jerry Jeudy 80+ receiving yards (+200 at DraftKings)
Drafted in 2020 as the 15th overall pick, Jerry Jeudy has known only one NFL team until this season, having played in Denver through last year. In 2024, he moved on to the Browns, a place where he's experienced up and down results, until recently. Instrumental in their victory last week against Pittsburgh, Jeudy has come on strong the past four weeks, boasting 36 catches for a whopping 379 yards, good for 95 yards per game. Against his former team, likely opposing cornerback Patrick Surtain, who he's known since little league, we love this revenge spot in Denver for the rising wideout.

Nick Chubb under 56.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
This is a terribly difficult spot for a back who just doesn't look the same this season. Nick Chubb had a season-ending knee injury last season, a worst-case scenario for a workhouse runner. Returning in late October, Chubb only has 222 yards over five contests. And even in his most active game yet (20 carries last week against PIT), he mustered only 59 yards. Denver allows just 16.8 ppg (2nd), and much of that is because they're a top-five unit against the run. Nothing will come easy for Chubb, and the Browns will likely be chasing and giving up on the run-game late.

Anthony Davis is Averaging 35.2 points per game in Past 5 Full Games Against Rudy Gobert

By Jack Dougherty

Lakers +8 (-110 at FanDuel)
This line opened at +4.5 overnight, and Timberwolves money has pushed it all the way to +8. We’ve officially gone too far. This spread likely moved so much because the Lakers could be missing Austin Reaves, Cam Reddish and D’Angelo Russell, and they’re playing on the second night of a road back-to-back. Well, Los Angeles beat the Jazz last night with those players out, and J.J. Redick’s squad is 3-0 straight up on the second night of a back-to-back this season. This is a lot to ask for of a Minnesota team that’s lost four of its past five games. 

Timberwolves vs. Lakers under 219 points (-110 at FanDuel)
We got a taste of the Lakers without Reaves in the lineup for the first time Sunday night, and it wasn’t pretty on the offensive end. Los Angeles shot 39/88 (44.3%) from the field and 7/33 (21.2%) from three, and it finished with just 105 points against a Jazz team that ranks near the bottom of the league in nearly every defensive category. As for the T-Wolves, they’ve gone under this number in four of their past five games, and the fifth only went over due to overtime. 

Anthony Davis over 26.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)
With the undermanned Lakers dealing with a few injuries on Sunday night, Davis upped his aggressiveness on the offensive end. The big man attempted 25 shots (his second-highest mark this season) and scored 33 points against the Jazz, and he could have a similar scoring game against the Timberwolves. In his past five full games against Rudy Gobert, Davis is averaging 35.2 points per game. This is a nightmare matchup for Gobert, and Davis should look to attack him early and often with Reaves likely to miss another game.

LeBron James over 9.5 assists (+104 at FanDuel)
Reaves has turned into one of Los Angeles’ best playmakers, so there was a big hole in that department when he missed his first game of the season on Sunday night. Predictably, James filled that hole by running the offense and setting up his teammates all night. James finished the game with 14 assists on a whopping 25 potentials. And remember, the Lakers had an abysmal shooting night. James could’ve finished the game with 17 or 18 assists, which would’ve pushed this line up even more. James has recorded 10 or more assists in three of his past four games, and his upside is much higher with Reaves off the court.

Mavericks to win the NBA Cup (+1200 at DraftKings)
Let’s take a quick break to add an NBA Cup future to our portfolio. The Mavericks already lost their group in the NBA Cup, but they’re in good shape to grab the Wild Card spot in the Western Conference with their +41 point differential. Dallas likely just needs to beat the Grizzlies at home on Tuesday night to advance to the knockout stage. If they do, this team is as dangerous as any. Dallas is on fire with eight wins in its past nine games, and it ranks inside the top seven in effective field-goal percentage (55.7%) and opponent effective field-goal percentage (52.1%). This price seems a touch high on a red-hot team. 

Heat Moved from +8.5 to +10.5 Overnight vs. Celtics

By Craig Williams

Bulls -7.5 (-110 at ESPNBET)
We expect the Nets to struggle as they continue to adjust to life without top scorer Cam Thomas. They dropped their last two contests, scoring 100 and 92 points, respectively. It’s fair to note that those losses came against the Orlando Magic, a quality defensive team. The Bulls are not good defensively, but they limit United Center guests to 34.7% shooting from three-point range, a major element in the Nets’ game. The Bulls aren’t an efficient offensive team, but they play at the league’s fastest pace and score the fourth most points. Meanwhile, the Nets enter play with a bottom-five defensive rating.

Parlay: Hawks -7 + Pelicans vs. Hawks under 229 points (+172 at DraftKings)
We’re going to stop short of calling the Hawks “hot,” but they’ve won three in a row nonetheless, covering two of those contests. The Pelicans, however, are cold as ice, losers of eight straight. They average under 100 points per game with the league’s worst offensive rating on the road. They’re porous defensively as well, setting the stage for a convincing Hawks home victory. We’re also looking at the under. The Pelicans enter with poor records against the spread, both on the road and in the second leg of back to backs; plus strong trends to the under. Note: Hawks -7 is an alternate spread that can be combined with other SGP eligible lines.

Heat +10.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
This number increased overnight, stretching from Heat +8.5. Both teams are entering the second leg of back-to-backs following a loss, but we’re actually going away from the stat sheet for this play. Not all road losses are created equal, and the Celtics fell in a relatively electric — as far as a Dec. 1 game goes — contest to the Cleveland Cavaliers. It’s going to be difficult going from a highly competitive game against a fellow Eastern Conference title contender straight into a game against a Miami squad that is playing better ball after a sluggish start. The Heat also enter relatively healthy, and we expect them to be competitive enough in this one. 

In the News 

• Sergio Perez is reportedly out at Red Bull after the final F1 race of the season, according to ESPN.

• Are the Jets really considering benching Aaron Rodgers?

• Both Michigan and Ohio State were fined by Big Ten for Saturday’s flag planting incident.

• CBS Sports grades every NFL team on Week 13 performances.

• The Los Angeles Galaxy will face the New York Red Bulls in the MLS Cup on Saturday.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 8pm: Lakers vs. Timberwolves on NBA TV

• 8:15pm: It might not be the best Monday Night Football matchup, but the Browns vs. Broncos on ESPN gives Bo Nix a chance to show his stuff to a national audience

Photo of the Day