Surging Bucks, Winners of 7 Straight, Are NBA's Top Offensive Team Over Past 5 Games

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: CFP is set to be an SEC vs. Big Ten showdown

• NBA: Magic are giving up a league-low 103 points per game

• NCAAM: UNC and Alabama both rank outside of the top-240 in defensive efficiency (tonight’s total is 174.5)

• More NBA: Clippers rank 3rd in opponent 3-point percentage (34.2%)

• Overtime: Ranking the NFL rookies in Week 13

Miami’s loss to Syracuse dropped them all the way to 12th in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, one spot behind 9-3 Alabama and without a path to first 12-team playoff. Since five conference champions are guaranteed a spot, the winner of the Big 12 Championship game, No. 16 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Arizona State, looks set to jump to the 12th seed.

The winners of No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State (Big Ten Championship) and No. 2 Texas vs. No. 5 Georgia (SEC Championship) are unofficially guaranteed byes. No. 8 SMU would get a bye with a win over No. 17 Clemson in the ACC Championship (if the Tigers win they’ll be in the playoff but the Big 12 winner could earn a bye over them). No. 10 Boise State earns a bye with a win over No. 20 UNLV, but the Rebels would likely be passed up by the ACC and Big 12 champions for the final bye if they pull off the upset — and Boise State would likely be out of the playoff entirely.

It appears that the SEC and Big Ten will each get four teams in the first edition of the CFP, and no other conference will get more than one. The ACC was the only conference with a real chance for multiple bids, but the committee shot that down by dropping 10-2 Miami six spots (Ohio State only fell four spots after its shocking loss to Michigan and is comfortably in the CFP). After the rankings were released, ACC commissioner Jim Phillips put out a statement saying, "we hope the committee will reconsider and put a deserving Miami in the field." The committee certainly won’t do that, but Phillips had to say it.

In today’s newsletter, Jack and Chris cover the NBA slate, and Craig has tonight’s college basketball action. And in case you missed it, Sam gave you Premier League insights for today’s games in yesterday’s newsletter to make sure you got his analysis in time.

— Abe Rakov

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Streaking Milwaukee Has League’s Top-Ranked Offense Over Past 5 Games

By Chris Farley

Celtics -13.5 (-110 consensus)
This is a horrendous spot for the Pistons and an ideal spot for the Celtics. Boston lost straight up to Cleveland last week, a reminder that they are not immortal in the Eastern Conference. That's a good thing for a program as talented as Boston, who is steady as a top-3 net rated team this season (to no one's surprise). Detroit is off a loss against Milwaukee at home, and now they must travel out East to take on the champs in under 24 hours. Detroit is a lowly 22nd in net rating over their past five games. Boston has been home since Monday and remains at home for the next 17 days; we can't look away.

Nets +2 (-110 at FanDuel and Bookmaker)
Indiana just isn't a team we trust yet this season. In just over one month of action, the Pacers have done nothing to suggest that they're anything close to the success they realized last year, ranking 24th in net rating. A middling offense (17th, 11th in ppg) can hold them up at times, but their 25th-ranked defense is a liability, permitting 119 ppg (28th). Off three straight losses to blue collar programs in Detroit, Memphis, and Toronto, now they travel to Brooklyn less than 24 hours to take on a Nets' squad that fights hard and owns one of the better ATS marks in the NBA (62%). The home dog has major value.

Pacers vs. Nets over 226 points (-110 at Bovada)
The Nets' defense has been formidable this season in spurts, exuding physicality and a try-hard style that hasn't made it easy for opponents. Lately, they haven't been very good at all. Brooklyn rates 24th in defensive efficiency over the past five games, just two spots up from their opponent Wednesday, and they've permitted at least 117 points in four of their past five. Indiana continues to show no signs of defensive improvement, and both programs are top-12 in tempo in the same span. Indiana is 15-7 ATS to the over and 10-2 ATS to the over after a loss; this number should be higher.

Magic vs. 76ers under 209.5 points (-110 at Bovada)
The Philadelphia 76ers are finally getting healthy again, and although they're still just 5-14 and far from their stride on offense, we're seeing signs of a sturdier defense. Philly ranks 13th in defensive efficiency over their past five games, while Orlando sits comfortably at the very top of that list, a spot that they've owned all season. No defense performs as well and as consistently as Orlando, a unit that permits just 103 ppg. Each outfit is on a back-to-back after a game last night and when these two programs initially clashed, it amounted to a lowly 184 points. 

Magic vs. 76ers first quarter under 53 points (-110 at Bovada)
When Orlando and Philadelphia first met on November 15th, the offense was laughable in the first quarter, scoring a combined 45 points. Coincidentally, both programs average around the same amount of points per first quarter, 27.5, which is probably why this number sits right below 54 at most books — but that's flawed. Sure, against better offenses and faster teams, Orlando and Philadelphia might be forced to keep up and become more productive early. But the 76ers are 29th and the Magic are 24th in tempo, a pairing that creates a methodical, molasses-like pace from opening tipoff. We project two proud defenses keeping this below 50 in the first 12 minutes.

Hawks vs. Bucks over 236 points (-106 at DraftKings)
The Atlanta Hawks are an interesting case study. Very streaky this season and tough to figure out, lately we're seeing the best version of Atlanta, just like we did briefly in early November. The Hawks are scoring an 8th-best 116 ppg this season, and they're a top-11 offense over their past five games. Milwaukee can relate and then some, ranked 1st on offense in the same span. Both programs have improved defensively, too, but they're also very healthy heading into Wednesday night (Trae Young and Khris Middleton are set to return), and Atlanta's 2nd-place tempo should spark scoring even more. We like this into the 240s.

Duke Freshman Flagg Has a 29.2% Usage Rate and Team-High 218 minutes

By Craig Williams

North Carolina vs. Alabama over 174.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
If there’s one thing to expect ahead of Alabama vs. North Carolina it’s pace and offense. The Tar Heels and Crimson Tide rank 32nd and 47th, respectively, in offensive efficiency; and both clock in the top-36 in pace, so it’s fair to anticipate both teams getting up and down the court. Meanwhile, considering both teams’ porous defense — both rank outside of the top-240 in defensive efficiency — we’re not expecting much resistance from either side. The Heels and their opponent both cleared 90 points in two of their past three, and the Crimson Tied have cleared 85 points in three of their past four.

North Carolina moneyline (-128 at FanDuel)
Some home cooking should provide a tangible lift for the Tar Heels after they went 1-2 straight-up and 0-3 against the spread in the Maui Invitational. The Crimson Tide enter the contest 6-2 overall and 3-1 over their past four, with wins over two ranked teams. They’re entering a road environment that can get relatively rowdy — the “Dean Dome” is no Cameron Indoor Stadium, but they get up for big games. The Tide’s last true road contest ended in a loss to Purdue on Nov. 15 as 4-point favorites. Finally, the Tar Heels are hosting the team that eliminated them from the 2024 NCAA Tournament. We don’t make a habit of citing “revenge spots,” but this is an exception.

Elliot Cadeau 20+ points + assists (+100 at ESPNBET)
We’re sticking with what looks like a fun matchup for one more play, this time a prop on the Tar Heels’ sophomore point guard. Cadeau is off to a strong campaign with improvements across his stat line, including usage and efficiency. He’s reached 20+ points and assists in four of seven contests this season, and we think this spot is set up for him to clear the number again. The Heels struggled in Maui, but returning home should serve as a significant benefit for the team overall and Cadeau in particular. Also, it’s worth reiterating that this is a matchup that screams pace and offensive fireworks.

UConn moneyline (-146 at FanDuel)
The Huskies struggled in the Maui Invitational — they weren’t the only ones — but they were able to take out some frustration in their return home, winning and covering (-41) against Maryland-Eastern Shore. UConn took it on the chin against Dayton in Maui, their third successive loss at the time, but their previous two losses came by a combined three points. So while we acknowledge that there is room for improvement, it’s not as if Dan Hurley and Co. are reeling. As for Baylor, it will be their first true road test of the season, and it will come in a challenging environment. They’re 0-3 against the spread over their past three games, including a 15-point loss to Tennessee.

Kansas moneyline (-172 at FanDuel)
We’re riding with the No. 1 Jayhawks on the road at Creighton. They’re 7-0 and 4-3 against the spread, with wins against North Carolina, Michigan State, and Duke (as a 4-point underdog). Naturally, a meeting of big men Hunter Dickinson and Ryan Kalkbrenner stands out as a headlining matchup, but Creighton’s Kalkbrenner missed the Bluejays’ previous game with an unspecified lower body injury. It’s reasonable to suspect that Kalkbrenner won’t be 100%, even if he takes the floor tonight, another reason we like the Jayhawks. Finally, we’re taking somewhat of a conservative approach here, looking at the moneyline instead of the spread. The Bluejays covered in each of their previous two meetings with the Jayhawks, and life is tough on the road when you’re the team with a bullseye on its back.

Duke -2.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Auburn is off to a 7-0 start, including a 6-1 mark against the spread. They defeated three ranked opponents, covering in two of those contests. They’ve yet to play a road game, however, and Cameron Indoor Stadium is one of the worst venues to get your first taste of hostility. Tonight’s matchup will feature a stingy Blue Devils defense attempting to smother one of the nation’s top offenses. And we’re looking at Duke, in the comfort of their own rowdy environment, being more successful establishing its will and defensive presence than Auburn will establishing and maintaining offensive rhythm and efficiency.   

Cooper Flagg over 29.5 points + rebounds + assists (-122 at FanDuel)
The Blue Devils’ offense runs through Flagg, who enters with a 29.2% usage rate and a team-high 218 minutes. And this is a spot in which Jon Scheyer will lean more heavily on the presumptive No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. Auburn’s defense lags behind its offense, theoretically providing Flagg easier avenues to rack up points and assists. Duke’s defense plays a significant role in the equation as well. Offense is Auburn’s strong suit, but operating efficiently at Cameron Indoor Stadium is a tough task for any team. If the rim gets a little smaller for the Tigers, it will provide more opportunities for Flagg to corral some boards. Flagg went over this number in two of his previous three against ranked opponents.

Clippers and Timberwolves Combined for 185 Points in Friday’s Matchup, Tonight’s Total is 213.5

By Jack Dougherty

Clippers vs. Timberwolves under 213.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Clippers and Timberwolves rank 6th and 7th, respectively, in defensive rating this season, and they both guard the three-point line extremely well. Los Angeles and Minnesota also rank near the bottom of the league this year in pace, which we saw play out a few days ago when they combined for just 159 shot attempts and 185 total points. 

Clippers +3 (-110 at FanDuel)
The Clippers lost by only one point to the Timberwolves last Friday and they shot an abysmal 42.9% from the field and 32.3% from three. Los Angeles doesn’t need to have a great offensive night to hang with Minnesota. The Timberwolves jack up the 7th-most threes per game and make the 6th-most, but the Clippers rank 3rd in the NBA in opponent three-point percentage (34.2%). LA can also create extra possessions by forcing turnovers, which it did 21 times against Minnesota on Friday. 

Norman Powell under 19.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)
Powell returned from a six-game absence and dropped 30 points on 11-15 shooting and 5-7 from three in his second game back, but that came against a terrible Trail Blazers defense that consistently gives up open outside looks and easy buckets in transition. This is a great sell-high spot against the Timberwolves, who rank 5th in opponent points per game (108.8) and 1st in opponent three-pointers made per game (11.6). Powell still isn’t back to his normal workload of 35 minutes per game, so he’ll need to be incredibly efficient against a strong defense to go over this line. 

Bucks to win the NBA Cup (+500 at FanDuel)
Don’t look now, but the Bucks are starting to find their groove at the right time. Milwaukee is 9-1 in its last 10 games, and it’s averaging 122.3 points per game over its past six contests. The biggest catalyst for this hot streak has been Giannis Antetokounmpo, who’s averaging 35.1 points in this 10-game stretch. The Bucks get to face off against a Magic team that can’t keep up with them offensively in the first round, then they’d play either the Knicks or Hawks in the semifinals. We’ve seen Antetokounmpo go into unstoppable mode and lead his team to a championship before, and he’s starting to get that look in his eye again.

Tyrese Maxey to win Clutch Player of the Year (+8000 at DraftKings)
Maxey has been thrust into the closer role for the 76ers with Joel Embiid and Paul George fighting the injury bug, and he’s performed well so far. The rising star is averaging an NBA-best 8.3 points per game in the clutch this season. No other player is scoring more than 6.0 points per game in the clutch. If the Sixers make a run and get back into the playoff picture, Maxey will likely be the main reason why. He’s playing in clutch moments every night due to how poorly Philadelphia began the year and how little room for error they have going forward. Maxey is 40/1 at FanDuel, so look at the 80/1 while you still can.

In the News 

• The Juan Soto sweepstakes could end this week.

• What teams should be mad about this week’s CFP rankings? (Spoiler: Miami is No. 1)

• Michigan fired its offensive coordinator.

• Read CBS Sports’ NFL Week 13 rookie rankings.

• The Iowa State and SMU athletic directors had a social media fight about strength of schedule last night.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3:15pm: Arsenal vs. Manchester United on Peacock (the streamer has four other Premier League matches starting at 2:30)

• 5pm: No. 11 Oklahoma vs. No. 22 Louisville in the SEC/ACC Women’s Challenge

• 7:30pm: Bruins vs. Blackhawks for the NHL on TNT

• 9:15pm: No. 2 Auburn at No. 9 Duke on ESPN in the SEC/ACC Men's Challenge

• 10:30pm: Timberwolves vs. Clippers on NBA TV

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