Tonight's MNF Matchup is a Battle of Struggling Defenses (49.5 total) + NFL Futures

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: A wild Week 14 in the NFL

• NFL: Cowboys are 30th in opponent yards per pass

• NBA: Knicks rank fifth in first-half points per game (59.7)

• NFL Futures: Brock Bowers’ historic season

• NFL: Bengals vs. Cowboys team stats and player projections

• Overtime: How the college football bowl schedule shook out

A third-string kicker hit a field goal as time expired to give the Chiefs their ninth straight AFC West title, the Eagles moved to 11-2 and clinched a playoff berth in a sloppy win over the Panthers, and Josh Allen became the first player in NFL history with three passing TDs and three rushing TDs in a game but the Bills still lost to the Rams. The Giants are still the only team in the NFC officially eliminated from playoff contention, while six AFC squads are already out.

There’s one more game in Week 14 in the NFL — the Bengals take on the Cowboys on Monday Night Football. Here are some matchup insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:

• The Cowboys run defense has struggled this season against designed runs, allowing 4.8 yards per carry (8th-most), +130 rushing yards over expected (10th-most) and a 45.9% success rate (4th-highest).

• Joe Burrow has the most losses (5) with 300+ passing yards and 3+ passing touchdowns in a single season in NFL history.

  • Burrow has thrown a league-leading 11 touchdowns to Ja’Marr Chase on downfield passes, 5 more than the next closest QB-WR duo.

• Osa Odighizuwa has generated 22 pressures in the last 5 games across 157 pass rushes (14.0%), the 6th-highest pressure rate among defensive tackles with 50+ pass rushes over that span and over double his pressure rate before the bye (6.9%).

• The Dallas Cowboys are one of only 2 teams to pressure opposing quarterbacks on over half of their 3rd down dropbacks, doing so 50.9% of the time.

In today’s newsletter, Chris is covering Monday Night Football, Craig and Jack team up for the lone NBA matchup, and Jack is also tracking some NFL futures for you.

— Abe Rakov

Bengals’ Defense Has Allowed 34 points or More in 4 of 5 Games

By Chris Farley

Cowboys +5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Believe it or not, the Cowboys still have plenty to play for. First and foremost, Mike McCarthy is fighting for his job, arguably the most sought after head-coaching position in the world, and clearly he's not giving it up easily. Dallas has manufactured two straight wins, gaining a combined 649 yards and 63 points along the way, and Micah Parsons' return has made a huge impact on their defense. The Cowboys can also still make the playoffs (although, ESPN Analytics gives them a 1% chance). The Bengals' season is over, for all intents and purposes, and Joe Burrow is calling out players for quitting on the team. At home, Dallas is a live dog.

Bengals vs. Cowboys over 49.5 points (-105 at Bovada)
The visiting Bengals are an over-juggernaut. Joe Burrow loves to heave the ball downfield (1st in pass yards per game – 264.3) and Cincinnati is one of the more explosive units in the NFL (4th in points per play). This is a really good matchup for Burrow (even though the matchup hasn’t really mattered), since he’ll be opposing a defense that’s 31st in opponent points per play, 30th in opponent yards per pass (7.9), and 28th in opponent yards per rush (4.9). Meanwhile, the Cowboys' offense is finding ways to score, too, and Cincinnati's defense has allowed 34 points or more in four out of their past five contests.

Cooper Rush over 230.5 yards yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Cooper Rush has awoken! Not known as one of the league's best backups, Rush has had up and down moments over his seven year career, all residing in Dallas. Lately, he's come on strong. In his past three battles, Rush has thrown for 796 yards, 4 touchdowns and just one interception. He's about to face one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL, one that allows 241 pass-yards per game (27th) and only sacks the QB on 4.9% of dropbacks (31st). At home and with momentum, we like Rush to easily eclipse this number. An alternate prop-bet could be in consideration.

Bengals 1st Quarter -1.5 (+114 at FanDuel)
Despite being a -5.5 road favorite, the Bengals are sitting at plus-money to come out winners in the first quarter. Cincinnati is one of the better first quarter programs in the NFL, 7-5 overall record and a 5-1 ATS road record to boot. Averaging 5.8 points per first quarter, the Bengals are also a top-six scoring program in the first 15 minutes. On the other side, Dallas is just 4-8 ATS this season and a remarkable 0-6 ATS at home, where they only put up 2.9 points per game in the opening quarter. In short, we see plenty of reasons to love the visitor early.

Chase Brown over 102.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Running backs have been the Cowboys' Achilles heel all season. Dallas' defense is one of the worst in the NFL against the rush, allowing a 28th-ranked 4.9 yards per carry and 147.6 rush yards per game (31st). Opponents average nearly two touchdowns (1.8) against Mike Zimmer's group in every contest, the worst mark in the league. Chase Brown has come on strong lately, averaging 123.4 combined rushing/receiving yards in his past four contests, and he had one of his best performances recently in a dome: 120 rushing yards at Las Vegas. 

Joe Burrow over 270.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
If you've followed us at all this football season, you probably expected to see this on our card. Despite their poor record and another absence from the playoffs, Joe Burrow is the NFL's most prolific passer, throwing for 3,337 yards (1st) and 30 touchdowns (1st) over 12 games. Dallas' defense is poor all-around, but their proclivity to allow explosive plays is their biggest flaw. They rank 31st in opponent points per play and permit a terrible 7.9 yards per pass. Burrow has three dynamic wide-receivers and an above-average tight end in Mike Gesicki, and we simply don't see how Dallas will stop him.

Bridges Has Cleared 1.5 Steals + Blocks in 2 of 3 Games

From Jack Dougherty:

Knicks first half team total over 60.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
The Knicks have been on fire offensively, especially in the first half. New York is averaging 63.3 first-half points over their past four games, and one of those came without Karl-Anthony Towns on the court. For the season, the Knicks now rank fifth in the NBA in first-half points per game (59.7). On the other side, the Raptors haven’t been a good defensive team out of the gate: Toronto ranks 23rd in the league in first-half points allowed per game (58.1).

Mikal Bridges over 1.5 steals + blocks (-148 at DraftKings)
This is a perfect matchup for Bridges to stuff the stat sheet on the defensive end of the floor. The Raptors are one of the worst teams in the NBA at taking care of the ball, as they rank 27th in opponent steals per game (9.8) and 25th in opponent blocks per game (6.2). Bridges has cleared this line in two of his past three games and three of his past five, and this is a good spot for him to keep that rolling against a sloppy Raptors’ offense. 

Karl-Anthony Towns 4+ assists (+155 at FanDuel)
Towns is listed as questionable for Monday night’s game, but this is a great matchup for him to rack up assists if he does suit up. The Raptors rank dead-last in the NBA in assists allowed per game to opposing centers (5.3) and 25th in points allowed per game (117.4). Towns has also been more aggressive as a playmaker of late, and he’s recorded at least four assists in four of his last seven games. 

From Craig Williams:

Knicks vs. Raptors over 231.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
The Knicks are playing well, their home loss to the Pistons notwithstanding, while the Raptors continue to produce against the spread (3-1 over their past four). The game is in Toronto, where the Raptors play .500 ball compared to their 1-11 mark on the road. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 6-6 on the road compared to 8-3 at home, and part of that can be explained by their soft defense away from the Garden. Their 1.15 road defensive rating is fifth-worst in the NBA. We still like them to win outright, but in a competitive, relatively high-scoring contest. 

New York Knicks (14-9, 6-6 Away) vs. Toronto Raptors (7-17, 6-6 Home)
7:30pm on NBA TV

Rams Easier Closing Schedule Makes Them Appealing in NFC West

By Jack Dougherty

Rams to win the NFC West (+160 at FanDuel)
The Seahawks have won four straight games to take control of the NFC West, but now is the perfect time to look elsewhere. Seattle closes the season with games against the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams. That could easily be 1-3 down the stretch. The Rams, who are only one game behind the Seahawks and already beat them this year, play the San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals before their season finale against Seattle. There’s a good chance that Week 18 matchup will decide the division, and the Rams would likely be favored at home. 

Brock Bowers to win Rookie of the Year (+1200 at DraftKings)
Sportsbooks seem to think Jayden Daniels has already locked up the Rookie of the Year award, but he’s not having nearly the historically great season that Bowers is. The Georgia product caught his 87th pass on Sunday to break the rookie tight end record for receptions in a season, and he still has four games to play! Not only that, but Bowers also leads the entire NFL in receptions (87) and ranks fourth in receiving yards (933) this year. He’s been doing this with Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder throwing him the football. Bowers is already in the conversation as the best tight end in the NFL, and he’s played only 13 games as a pro. The voters might be more impressed by Bowers than oddsmakers realize.

Monday Night Football: Dallas (+5.5) is a Home Underdog Against 4-8 Cincinnati

The Bengals are either one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL or are one of the worst teams under pressure, as evidenced by their 1-7 record in close games. The Cowboys finally got a home win on Thanksgiving after starting the season 0-5 in Jerry World.

Bengals (4-8, 3-3 Away) vs. Cowboys (5-7, 1-5 Home)
8:15pm on ESPN

Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:

• Bengals

  • QB Joe Burrow: 284.8 pass yards, 2.1 pass TD

  • RB Chase Brown: 73.1 rush yards, 23.0 receiving yards

  • WR Ja’Marr Chase: 6.3 receptions, 86.2 receiving yards

• Cowboys

  • QB Cooper Rush: 226.0 pass yards, 1.1 pass TD

  • RB Rico Dowdle: 65.3 rush yards, 20.0 receiving yards

  • WR CeeDee Lamb: 6.3 receptions, 68.0 receiving yards

In the News 

• The college football bowl schedule is out.

• Soto will reportedly earn $765 million from the Mets.

• Alabama is considering changing its non-conference schedule after CFP snub (though two bad conference losses are what tanked the Crimson Tide).

• CBS Sports’s overreactions to Week 14 in the NFL.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 6:30pm: Minnesota vs. Indiana in men’s college basketball action on Big Ten Network

• 7:30pm: Knicks vs. Raptors on NBA TV

• 8:15pm: Bengals vs. Cowboys on MNF on ABC and ESPN

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