Vikings (-7) and Falcons (-5.5) Have Division Titles on Their Minds in MNF Twofer

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: The AFC playoff picture

• NFL: Vikings score 28 points per game at home

• NBA: LaMello Ball averaged 34.6 points, 7.6 assists and 6.4 rebounds over the 5 games before his injury

• NBA: Bulls are last in opponent field goals made per game (45.7)

• NFL: Bears vs. Vikings preview

• NFL: Falcons vs. Raiders preview

• Overtime: A record night in the NBA

With every relevant AFC team done with Week 15 (sorry, Raiders fans), the conference’s playoff race is just about complete. While the Colts, Dolphins and Bengals still technically have a shot, being two games back with three to play is tough to overcome: DraftKings has Cincinnati at +700, Indianapolis at +800 and Miami at +1000 to make the playoffs.

The AFC North is the only division in the AFC still up for grabs, with the Steelers one game up on the Ravens — and the teams play this Saturday. DraftKings has Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite to win that game at home and get even with Pittsburgh in the standings with two games to go, but has the Steelers as the favorite to win the division at -175 (Baltimore is +140).

In today’s newsletter, Chris has the two Monday Night Football games, and Craig and Jack cover the NBA. We also have extended previews of the MNF games.

— Abe Rakov

Vikings Average 7.1 Points in 1st Quarters, Bears are Last in the League at 1.5

By Chris Farley

Vikings -7 (-101 at BetOnline)
The Vikings are getting love from the marketplace and for good reason. Despite a lot of offseason moves and a team projected to be average by most, Kevin O'Connell's squad is 11-2 and in position to take over first place in the NFC North with Detroit’s loss on Sunday. They got some good quality luck in some wins, even last week when Kirk Cousins and the Falcons turned it over three times and committed 12 penalties, but they're still a far better program than the Bears, who haven't covered in five of their past seven contests. Chicago's season is over, and we expect Minnesota, at home, to eventually run a train over them.

Bears vs. Vikings second half over 21.5 points (-105 at DraftKings and FanDuel)
The Bears' offense certainly isn't a top unit this season, but they play far better in the second half. In their past three games, the Bears have scored 50 combined points in the second half and just 10 points in the first. Part of that is because a young, immature offense (and leaky offensive line, rated dead-last in opponent quarterback sack percentage) has to play catch-up every week. We see little issue with Minnesota's offense humming all game, a group that's averaged 28 points per game in front of their fans, while Chicago's offense should add to the total late.

Vikings first quarter -1.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
Few teams are as bad as the Bears early in ball games, and fortunately for our wallets, the Vikings are very good. Minnesota ranks second in the NFL in first-quarter scoring, averaging 7.1 points, while the stuttering Bears are dead-last at just 1.5 points. Adding to the home team's motivation is an NFC North that's now wide-open for the taking, which means the Vikings will want to pounce early and overwhelm the Bears. Minnesota's defense, a group that's held teams to just 2.8 points per game in the first 15 minutes, thrives with a lead.

Caleb Williams over 223.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
The Bears' offense isn't good, the jury is out on that, but that doesn't mean Williams can't stack up plenty of yards, especially in "garbage-time." The market expects the Bears to be playing catch-up all game, as do we, and Williams typically puts up numbers in these situations. He threw for 256 yards in a comeback effort at Detroit on Thanksgiving, and in his first matchup versus Minnesota he had one of his most productive games of the season (340 yards). Against a Minnesota defense that's aggressive but often capitulates (they allowed Atlanta to gain 495 yards last week at home), we like a big day for the #1 draft pick. 

Falcons -5.5 (-110 at BetOnline)
Antonio Pierce is famous for motivating his guys in big spots, but this game doesn't qualify. The Falcons and Raiders are rare opponents, in separate conferences and only similar in the black color of their uniforms. To make matters worse for the home team, the Raiders' quarterback room is looking bleak, featuring either a banged-up Aidan O'Connell (knee, questionable) or the Falcons' last thrower, Desmond Ridder, or both. That shouldn't be much of a challenge against a Falcons' defense that played well until the fourth quarter last week at Minnesota, and against a squad that needs to win now to stay afloat in the NFC South race.

Falcons vs. Raiders under 44 points (-108 at Bookmaker)
With added motivation and against a Raiders' defense that'll be without its best player (Maxx Crosby), we suspect Atlanta's offense will move the ball and show better results on Monday night. That still doesn't mean they'll turn into a juggernaut. The Falcons have averaged just 19 points per game in their past four contests, a result of a struggling Kirk Cousins and a non-explosive offense that's 22nd in points per play. We are not encouraged or inclined to believe the Raiders' offense will produce on any level, making this number far too high.

Hornets and 76ers Went Under Tonight’s Total (217) in Two Matchups This Year — Including 1 OT Game

By Craig Williams

Nets under 103.5 points (-105 at BetMGM)
The Nets are playing their first game since trading point guard Dennis Schroder to the Warriors. Schroder led Brooklyn in minutes by a slim margin over injured lead guard Cam Thomas. The Nets are 2-5 since Thomas went down, so they’ve struggled to replace his production, and removing their primary point guard will only make matters more difficult. Ben Simmons may be in line for extra minutes, but he can only be pushed so far. Ultimately, the Nets will need to resort to a committee approach in the short-term, and playing against the Cavs’ top 10 defense will make that strategy particularly challenging.  

Evan Mobley +4.5 points vs. Cameron Johnson (-105 at DraftKings)
Mobley (ankle) missed Friday’s game, so make sure you’re comfortable with his status. Even with injuries aside, Johnson may seem like the obvious play to score more points than Mobley — especially with the Nets vacating over 31 shot attempts per game between Thomas and Schroder. But Johnson isn’t the type of player who runs and controls an offense. He needs a floor general and organizer. Simmons can play that role, but for how long? Johnson has scored 16, 14, and 12 points in his past three games without Dennis Schroder, and the Nets are still in the midst of figuring out how they’ll piece together the point guard position in his stead. Finally, we don’t need Mobley to outscore Johnson. He just needs to finish within 4.5 points of Johnson, and we’re confident he’ll do that considering the 21.3 points he was averaging over his past seven healthy contests.

Donovan Mitchell under 23.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)
We’re not fading Mitchell here per se, we just don’t think the Cavs will need him to deliver a heavy scoring load in today’s contest. They’re visiting a Nets team that appears ready to tank after moving Schroder, their best active player and primary point guard; and Mitchell has eased up on the gas pedal in the scoring column of late. He’s averaging 22 points over his past six games on 17.7 shot attempts. The Cavs have a strong bench plus other prominent starters capable of handling the scoring load. Like we suggested above, check in on the status of Evan Mobley (ankle). If he’s healthy, it’s reasonable to expect him to resume his offensive form against a poor Nets defense and further relieve Mitchell of his typical scoring responsibility.

Josh Giddey under 12.5 rebounds + assists (-120 at ESPNBET)
We like the Bulls in this contest, even on the road against the cover-happy Raptors (18-8 against the spread). However, we’re bearish on Giddey serving as the driving force of production. His road struggles are persisting, suggesting there’s a degree of comfort he’s not achieving away from home. He’s played well over his past 10 games, but even across that good stretch of form, his road performances dipped. Giddey has played in 13 games each at home and on the road, and his road performance wanes across a number of key offensive categories. The Bulls have a number of players who can handle the usage and playmaking loads while allowing Giddey to serve as a secondary or tertiary cog in the operation.

Hornets vs. Sixers under 217 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Sixers are still a mess despite a recent 4-2 stretch (5-1 against the spread), and the Hornets (1-9 over their past 10) are the same old Hornets. The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid and Jared McCain, placing the bulk of the scoring burden on Tyrese Maxey and Paul George. That may be enough to win — even if LaMelo Ball returns — but the Hornets and Sixers rank 26th and 27th, respectively, in offensive rating. These two teams combined for 212 points (in overtime) on Nov. 10 and 214 points on Dec. 3. Between the ongoing flux in Philadelphia and the continued sub-par production of the Hornets, we’re leaning under in this spot.

LaMelo Ball over 34.5 points + assists + rebounds (-120 at BetMGM)
The Hornets have one primary draw, and that’s LaMelo Ball. He’s listed as questionable tonight, but is trending toward a return. He has absolutely dominated the offense this season, posting a league-high 39.7 usage rate. The next-closest regular on the Hornets is Brandon Miller at 28.4. In the five games prior to being sidelined by a calf strain, Ball was averaging 34.6 points and went over the number with points alone in three of those five contests. He added 7.6 assists and 6.4 rebounds over that span for good measure. We don’t necessarily expect an efficient performance from Ball, but we won’t be surprised to see him resume the high volume role he serves as the Hornets’ primary scorer and playmaker.

Tyrese Maxey over 32.5 points + assists (-105 at ESPNBET)
If we look at Maxey’s recent production in these categories, the initial lean may be under — he’s averaging 21.8 points and 5.8 assists over his past 10. However, we’re considering that the Sixers will be without McCain and Embiid, thrusting Maxey deeper into the primary scorer and playmaker role — Paul George looks like a clear second fiddle to Maxey at this point. We’re also looking at his matchup with Hornets point guard LaMelo Ball, who is considered to be among the poorer on-ball defenders in the NBA. It will be a lot to ask of Ball, coming off of a seven-game absence, to resume his role as offensive focal point while also asking him to slow down Maxey. We expect Maxey to score with relative ease, both from the field and via the free throw line, while also taking advantage of the assist opportunities he’s able to create.

Herro Shooting Over 61% in Past 4, Averaging 10 Potential Assists in Past 3

By Jack Dougherty

Tyler Herro over 27.5 points + assists (-110 at DraftKings)
The Pistons have trouble slowing down opposing guards. Just in the last few weeks, Detroit has given up 25 points and five assists to Marcus Smart, 28 and six to Tyrese Maxey, 27 and five to Damian Lillard, 31 and 10 to Jalen Brunson and 27 and 10 to Payton Pritchard. In comes a red-hot Herro, who’s 38-62 (61.3%) from the field and 19-36 (52.8%) from three over his past four games. He’s also averaging 10.0 potential assists per game over his past three. Look for Herro to stay aggressive against this porous defensive backcourt. 

RJ Barrett over 6.5 assists (-105 at BetMGM)
Someone on the Raptors needs to step up in the playmaking department with Scottie Barnes out of the lineup with an ankle injury, and it looks like that’s going to be Barrett. With Barnes inactive against the Heat last week, Barrett recorded 10 assists on a team-high 16 potential assists. There’s no reason that should slow down against a Bulls defense that ranks 29th in the NBA in opponent assists per game (29.2) and dead last in opponent field goals made per game (45.7).

Coby White over 26.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 at DraftKings)
White is a big part of this Bulls offense even when everyone is healthy, but his usage goes through the roof when Zach LaVine is off the court. Since the start of last season, White is averaging 20.5 points, 5.5 assists and 4.8 rebounds per game with LaVine out of the lineup. LaVine is listed as questionable for Monday night’s tilt against the Raptors. If he doesn’t suit up, it should be the White show in Toronto. 

Gradey Dick over 2.5 threes (-140 at BetMGM)
Dick recently returned to the lineup after missing some time due to a calf injury, and he came back firing from deep. The second-year pro has attempted 38 3-pointers in four games since returning to the court, and he’s cleared this line in three of those four. You couldn’t ask for a better matchup here, as the Bulls give up the most threes per game to opposing shooting guards (4.1). This projects to be a fast-paced game with a ton of outside shots, so Dick should have no problem reaching double-digit 3-point attempts on Monday.

Nikola Jokic under 50.5 points + rebounds + assists (-113 at FanDuel)
It’s always scary to fade the most prolific stat-stuffer in the NBA, but this has always been a tough matchup for Jokic. In 17 career games against Domantas Sabonis, Jokic is averaging just 24.1 points, 9.6 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game. The Nuggets big man is 20-43 (46.5%) from the floor and averaging just 35.0 PRA in his last three matchups against Sabonis. Additionally, some of the load is taken off Jokic now that Aaron Gordon is back in the lineup.

James Harden over 8.5 assists (+100 at FanDuel)
Harden has gone under this line in three straight starts, but he played only 24 minutes against the Timberwolves last week due to groin soreness. This is a great bounce-back spot for one of the best passers in the NBA. The Jazz are giving up the second-most assists per game to opposing point guards (10.5) this season. Utah also ranks 29th in opponent effective field-goal percentage (56.4%) and opponent field goals made per game (44.1). Harden racked up 11 assists against the Jazz earlier this year, so this is a solid buy-low spot after a few slow games.

Walker Kessler over 9.5 rebounds (-120 at Bet365)
This is going to be a fun battle watch down low. Kessler and Ivica Zubac are two of the best rebounders in the NBA, but we’re giving the advantage to Kessler in this matchup. The Jazz center has gone over this line in six of his past seven games, averaging 11.4 rebounds on 21.0 rebound chances per game in that span. Both centers average around 20 rebound chances per game this season, but Kessler’s contested rebound rate (53.4 percent) is better than Zubac’s (46.4 percent). He shouldn’t be priced this much worse than Zubac to reel in 10 boards.

Bears vs. Vikings: Division Title, #1 Seed Still in Play for Minnesota

The Vikings quietly have one of the league’s best offenses and are 7-1 in close games. The Bears haven’t won a game on the road yet this season.

Bears (4-9, 0-6 Away) vs. Vikings (11-2, 6-1 Home)
8pm on ABC

Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:

• The Chicago Bears have struggled to gain extra yards on the ground, averaging the fewest yards after contact per carry (2.7) and 6th-lowest missed tackle forced rate on designed runs (20.4%) this season.

• The Vikings defense blitzes on 45.2% of early downs, the highest rate in the league; however, they blitz at the 10th-lowest rate (27.2%) on late downs. Their +18% difference in blitz rate is the largest difference in blitz rates between early and late downs among all teams.

• Sam Darnold has thrown for 19.4 yards per deep pass attempt (20+ air yards) this season, the 3rd-most in a season by any QB with at least 40+ deep pass attempt since 2018.

Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:

• Bears

  • QB Caleb Williams: 222.0 pass yards, 1.5 pass TD

  • RB D’Andre Swift: 55.4 rush yards, 15.4 receiving yards

  • WR DJ Moore: 4.6 receptions, 62.4 receiving yards

• Vikings

  • QB Sam Darnold: 251.5 pass yards, 1.8 pass TD

  • RB Aaron Jones: 66.3 rush yards, 21.2 receiving yards

  • WR Justin Jefferson: 5.3 receptions, 82.5 receiving yards

Falcons vs. Raiders: Atlanta Needs a MNF Win, Vegas Hasn’t Said Who Will Start at QB

The Falcons need a win to keep pace with the Buccaneers and avoid becoming the 4th team in NFL history to miss the playoffs after having at least a 2-game lead in the division through Week 10.

Falcons (6-7, 3-3 Away) vs. Raiders (2-11, 1-4 Home)
8:30pm on ESPN

Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:

• Bijan Robinson has gained +83 rushing yards over expected on designed runs this season (14th-most in NFL) and Tyler Allgeier has generated +73 (16th-most), making the Falcons one of only two teams with multiple running backs exceeding +70 (49ers).

• The Raiders defense has allowed +213 rushing yards over expected on designed runs this season, the 2nd-most in the NFL. They allowed just +132 in the previous two seasons combined.

• Kirk Cousins has not thrown a passing touchdown in each of his last four games, which is the most consecutive starts without a passing touchdown in his career. Cousins has also thrown at least one interception in each of those four games, which is also the longest such streak of his career.

• Brock Bowers needs 144 receiving yards to pass Mike Ditka for the most receiving yards by a rookie tight end in NFL history.

Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:

• Falcons

  • QB Kirk Cousins: 235.2 pass yards, 1.5 pass TD

  • RB Bijan Robinson: 74.9 rush yards, 28.6 receiving yards

  • WR Drake London: 5.6 receptions, 73.2 receiving yards

• Raiders

  • RB Sincere McCormick: 48.3 rush yards, 7.7 receiving yards

  • WR Jakobi Meyers: 5.8 receptions, 64.9 receiving yards

  • TE Brock Bowers: 6.0 receptions, 66.2 receiving yards 

In the News 

• Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman is getting a raise and contract extension after CFP berth.

• The Warriors and Mavericks hit an NBA-record 48 combined 3-pointers last night.

• Patrick Mahomes’s status for next week is unclear after injuring his ankle.

• American players will be paid to play in the Ryder Cup for the first time.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: Bournemouth vs. West Ham on USA

• 8pm: Bears vs. Vikings on ABC

• 8:30pm: Falcons vs. Raiders on ESPN

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