Looking at Futures After NBA Cup Championship Game

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Changes coming to NBA offenses?

• College Football: Cal and UNLV are in chaos

• NCAAM: UConn frosh has green light

• NBA: Grizzlies are 5th on O and 6th on D

• NFL: Our Sportmoney x PFF Week 16 Rundown

• Overtime: Falcons make long-awaited move at QB

Before the Bucks’ 97-81 win over the Thunder in the NBA Cup championship game, commissioner Adam Silver told reporters that the league is looking into criticism that offenses are too “cookie-cutter” and reliant on 3-pointers. (Despite their relatively low point total Tuesday night, the Bucks still made 17 of 40 from long range.)

Silver did not single out the volume of 3s — the defending-champion Celtics are attempting 51.1 per game; the league record is 45.4 — and he said the current brand of basketball is “an amazing game.” He also, per ESPN, seemed to shut down the idea of moving the 3-point line. But he did appear open to some form of change in the future.

“My sense is I do think we should take seriously this notion of more diversity in offense,” Silver said, according to the ESPN report. “I watch as many games as all of you do, and to the extent that it's not so much a 3-point issue, but that [to] some of the audience, some of the offenses start to look sort of cookie-cutter and teams are copying each other. I think that's something we should pay attention to.”

In today’s newsletter, Jack covers college football, Craig has men’s college basketball, and Chris looks at the NBA futures market. The Sportmoney x PFF Week 16 Rundown is also out today on the website.

— Patrick Dorsey

The SEC is +160 to Win the College Football Playoff Championship Game

By Jack Dougherty

Western Kentucky team total under 21.5 (-130 at DraftKings)
Western Kentucky put up some impressive scoring numbers early in the season, but its offense limped to the finish line with only 59 over its final four games (14.8 points per game). The Hilltoppers went under this line of 21.5 in all four. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp is expected to play in the Boca Raton Bowl, but WKU could be without three starting offensive linemen and its second-leading receiver, Easton Messer. Even if they all play, James Madison has a strong secondary to counter WKU’s heavy passing attack. 

George Pettaway over 65.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
The last time we saw Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State ran all over them for 386 yards in the Conference USA championship game. That was a theme all year for the Hilltoppers, who rank 128th out of 134 D-I teams in rushing yards allowed per game (224.6). JMU is already a run-heavy offense, so it’ll look to pound the rock after watching film of Western Kentucky’s defense for the past few weeks. Pettaway averages 73.3 rushing yards per game this season, and he’s gone over this line in four of his past five games. 

California vs. UNLV under 47.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
This is a mess of a game from a transfer and injury perspective. Cal will be without starting quarterback Fernando Mendoza and leading receiver Nyziah Hunter, who entered the transfer portal, and backup QB Chandler Rogers might not be able to suit up due to an injury. The Bears could have to roll with Ohio transfer CJ Harris or freshman EJ Caminong in this one. On the other side, UNLV will be playing without head coach Barry Odom after he took the Purdue job. Offensive coordinator Brennan Marion also reportedly left to take the Sacramento State job, so the Rebels will have a new play-caller in place. That’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding both offenses.

California vs. UNLV highest-scoring half: second half (-110 at DraftKings)
This could be a clunky start for both offenses with so many moving parts. Cal might use the first half to play both Harris and Caminong to gauge which quarterback will give the Bears the best chance in the second half. Either way, it could take some time for this new-look offense to find its rhythm. UNLV could also start slow with an interim head coach and a new offensive coordinator calling plays.

Penn State and Texas to make CFP semifinals (+129 at FanDuel)
This bet is in the “Playoff Parlays” section on FanDuel. Penn State and Texas seem to be the safest bets to make the semifinals of the eight teams playing this weekend. The Nittany Lions are 8.5-point home favorites against SMU, while the Longhorns are 11.5-point home favorites against Clemson. Assuming both teams take care of business, they have even easier matchups in the quarterfinals. Penn State is -11.5 against Boise State in the lookahead line, and Texas would be -13.5 against Arizona State. Parlaying those two moneylines would only get you around -170.

Conference to win the championship game: SEC (+160 at DraftKings)
This price feels a tad high based on how the bracket figures to play out. The Big Ten is the favorite in this market at -120 because it has four teams in the College Football Playoff, but its two best chances (Oregon and Ohio State) would have to face off in the second round. Indiana doesn’t seem to have enough talent to run this gauntlet, and it’s hard to trust Penn State considering James Franklin’s track record against title contenders. The SEC figures to have a much better chance to get two teams in the championship game in Georgia and Texas.

After Maui Struggles, UConn Has Wins and Covers in Four Straight Games

By Craig Williams

Memphis -4.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
The Tigers are entering a road contest against Virginia coming off of a victory at Clemson as 5.5-point underdogs. Memphis has been tested this season, with wins against aforementioned Clemson, Connecticut and Michigan State. Virginia is 5-0 at home, but only 2-3 against the spread, and it’s not unfair to call their home schedule “light” up to this point. It’s not easy to win on the road, but Memphis has demonstrated that they’re able to handle business against tough teams in tough environments.

UConn -13.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
The Huskies endured an early season hiccup in Maui, but they’re 4-0 straight up and against the spread over their past four. They’ve controlled the series against Big East rival Xavier, winning and covering in their past three meetings. Two of those came as double-digit favorites. Xavier is 0-2 on the road, and we could see the Huskies taking control of this contest on their home floor.

Liam McNeeley over 13.5 points (-125 at FanDuel)
McNeeley enters as UConn’s second-leading shot-taker, but that doesn’t do justice to his elevated role of late. The projected lottery pick is averaging 16.5 points on 10.5 shot attempts over his past four. He’s had the green light from three-point range as well, attempting six treys per game over this stretch.

Houston vs. Toledo under 142.5 (-110 at bet365)
Houston has looked the part in spite of a few tough losses to quality opponents, and the Cougars enter this contest with unders in two straight. Toledo is struggling offensively, producing a 0.894 offensive efficiency over its past three. That spells trouble against Houston’s suffocating defense, which has been even more relentless at home with a 0.681 defensive efficiency rating.

Toledo +29.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Don’t get us wrong: Houston should control this matchup to a full degree, but this is one in which the Cougars can be dominant without covering. They’re 1-4 against the spread over their past five, scoring 71.2 points in that span, and we don’t think they’ll be pushed to score beyond that number in what projects as a relatively easy and low-scoring victory. 

Nicholls State under 27.5 first half (-106 at FanDuel)
Nicholls State is entering a tough spot against Gonzaga on the road. Gonzaga is coming off two straight losses to tough opponents on neutral floors, and should enjoy a boost from being back in the comfort of their home environment. They’ll also be looking to lick their wounds. Look for them to be engaged and smothering on defense against a Nicholls State team that has struggled offensively of late.  

Davidson +2.5 (-110 at Fanatics)
The Wildcats have lived up to their brand as a quality mid-major, and they’re entering tonight’s road tilt with a 3-0 record over their past three. They’ve played tough competition away from home — albeit on a neutral floor — so they won’t be completely unaccustomed to playing outside the comforts of Davidson. Temple, meanwhile, is coming off of a win against Hofstra, but the Owls have not impressed up to this point. They’re 6-4 straight-up and 3-6 against the spread, including 0-2 as the home favorite.

Denver’s Championship Odds and Other Noteworthy NBA Futures

By Chris Farley

NBA Champion: Denver Nuggets (+1800 at Caesars)
Denver didn't start off looking like a championship team, but that hardly means anything at this point in the season, when the market has made an assertive decision about a program but it's far too early to do so. Denver is a top-five offense with the best player in the world on their squad. Nikola Jokic is the odds-on favorite to win MVP, averaging a triple-double (31/13/10) and shooting 56% from the field. The roster has championship mettle and a coach who knows how to win when it matters most.

NBA Champion: Memphis Grizzlies (+3000 at Caesars)
Many are surprised at how good Memphis has looked. We are not. One of the most balanced teams in the Association (ranked 5th on offense, 6th on defense, 4th in net rating), the Grizzlies are led by the incomparable Ja Morant, a bona fide superstar who gives his team a belief that they can be among the best in the NBA. Center Jaren Jackson Jr. is once again a Defensive Player of the Year contender, the Grizzlies are well-coached, and their depth is full of veterans like Marcus Smart and bright newcomers like Zach Edey and Jaylen Wells. Watch out for Memphis.

Southeast Division Winner: Atlanta Hawks (+900 at DraftKings)
Atlanta's performances in the NBA Cup are an indication of the Hawks’ potential. Atlanta's roster is young and entertaining, filled with new additions like Dyson Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher, and the Hawks’ length grants them the physical ability to compete against any program. In their past 15 games, they're a top-11 defense, and a star like Trae Young, who can dish as well as he can score, means this team can explode offensively at any time. Washington and Charlotte are not serious threats, Orlando is new at being good, and Miami, who's better in the playoffs, could trade Jimmy Butler before the deadline. This is great value.

Western Conference Winner: Houston Rockets (+2200 at DraftKings)
Once again, Ime Udoka is showing his coaching prowess. Houston has defied expectations already, sitting in third in the Western Conference with seminal wins against the Grizzlies, Mavericks, Warriors, Thunder and Timberwolves. The Rockets are right there with the Thunder and Magic as the best defenses in the NBA, holding opponents to just 106.1 points per game. With burgeoning contributors like Sixth Man of the Year contender Amen Thompson, and skill players like Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun turning into stars, Houston is a threat in the wide-open West.

Longest Regular-Season Winning Streak: Boston Celtics (+800 at DraftKings)
The Cleveland Cavaliers are the odds-on favorites at -230, which is understandable considering their very impressive streak of 15 to start the season. The only problem is that the Celtics made them look very average in the L that ended their streak, and Boston remains the consensus best team in the NBA. Over the past 10 seasons, seven teams have eclipsed the 15-game-win-streak mark, and Boston is well-positioned to do it again in a clunky, inconsistent Eastern Conference.

San Antonio Spurs to Make the Playoffs (+500 at DraftKings)
The Western Conference isn't as stacked as it used to be. The Nuggets, a recent champion, have been hovering around .500, the Warriors are no longer elite, Minnesota is struggling and lacking chemistry early, and while the Thunder have been awesome, they're very young. The San Antonio Spurs will be competing against squads like the Lakers, Clippers and Kings to make the playoffs, and all three have serious flaws. San Antonio has a new, veteran leader with Chris Paul, a top-tier coach, a growing roster, and the league's most enigmatic young superstar in Victor Wembanyama, who's averaging 24 points, 10 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks per game.

Sportmoney x Pro Football Focus Week 16 Rundown: Tight Ends

• Tight Ends with most yards per reception on play action:

  • George Kittle: 18.3 YPR

  • Cole Kmet: 16.4 YPR 

  • Foster Moreau: 15.4 YPR 

  • Tucker Kraft: 15.4 YPR

  • Sam LaPorta: 15.2 YPR

  • Chigoziem Okonkwo: 14.7 YPR

• Teams allowing the most yards per reception to TEs in play action:

  • Buccaneers: 16.0 YPR

  • Bears: 15.7 YPR

  • Texans: 14.2 YPR

  • Raiders: 13.4 YPR

  • Packers: 12.8 YPR

• Sam LaPorta vs. Chicago Bears 

  • LaPorta scored 2 TDs vs Chicago in Week 13 with only 3 receptions on 5 targets

  • Despite the fact LaPorta has struggled vs. Chicago the past two seasons (60.0 receiving grade), he has a good matchup in the screen and play-action game.

You can find our full weekly analysis with PFF, which also includes quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers, at sportmoney.com.

In the News 

• Kirk Cousins is finally out as Falcons starting QB; the team is switching to rookie first-round pick Michael Penix Jr.

• Former MVP Cody Bellinger has been traded to the Yankees, where his father won two World Series in 1999 and 2000.

• Mike Vick says he will be the next head football coach at Norfolk State.

• Seventeen-year-old golf phenom Blades Brown is skipping his senior year of high school and turning pro in 2025.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 5:30pm: Western Kentucky vs. James Madison in the Boca Raton Bowl on ESPN

• 7pm: Xavier vs. No. 11 UConn in men’s college basketball on FS1

• 9pm: Cal vs. No. 24 UNLV in the Art of Sport LA Bowl Hosted By Gronk on ESPN

• 9pm: No. 24 Michigan vs. No. 14 Oklahoma in men’s college basketball on ESPN2

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