Chiefs (-2.5) and Ravens (-5.5) Look to Help NFL Steal Christmas from NBA

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Happy Holidays!

• Chiefs vs. Steelers: Chiefs can clinch top seed in AFC 

• Ravens vs. Texans: Ravens need a win to keep pace with Steelers

• Spurs vs. Knicks: Wemby heads to MSG to take on streaking Knicks

• NBA: Breaking down the other four Christmas Day matchups

• Overtime: Cousins’ $180 million contract is looking worse

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Holidays, or enjoy your Wednesday — whatever suits you today. The NFL conspired with Netflix to take away the NBA’s dominance on Christmas Day this year. We know millions more people will watch football, but the two biggest questions are: Can Netflix, with its nearly 283 million subscribers, beat the NFL’s regular season viewership record (42.1 million)? And how many viewers will the NBA lose to the NFL?

In today’s newsletter, we have previews of today’s two NFL matchups and all five NBA games for you. And the Sportmoney x PFF Rundown is up on our website a day early!

— Abe Rakov

Chiefs vs. Steelers: KC Looks to Clinch No. 1 Seed on the Road

With a win the Chiefs would clinch the top seed in the AFC. The Steelers would stay atop the AFC North (they own the tiebreaker over the Ravens) if they pull off the home upset. Here is where FanDuel has the game:

• Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (-115); Steelers +2.5 (-105)

  • Chiefs 6-8-1; Steelers 10-5

• Moneyline: Chiefs -154; Steelers +130

  • Chiefs 14-1; Steelers 10-5

• Total (43.5): Over -118 / Under -104

  • Chiefs 7-8; Steelers 8-7

Chiefs (14-1, 6-1 Away) vs. Steelers (10-5, 5-1 Home)
1pm on Netflix

Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:

• TJ Watt has generated just a 10.2% pressure rate this season (his lowest since at least 2018), but the Steelers have still forced a higher pressure rate with him on the field (37.1%) than off (35.6%).

• Patrick Mahomes has scrambled to run 35 times this season, recording 319 yards, two touchdowns and 20 first downs (T-4th-most in the NFL). Mahomes’ average of 9.1 yards per scramble is the 7th-most among quarterbacks with at least 10 scrambles this season.

• The Chiefs have sent a blitz at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL this season (37.1%), generating a 45.3% pressure rate when doing so, 17.5% higher than their pressure rate when not (27.8%). That 17.5% difference is the 4th-largest in the NFL.

Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:

• Chiefs

  • QB Patrick Mahomes: 250.7 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD

  • RB Isiah Pacheco: 54.5 rush yards, 14.7 receiving yards

  • WR Xavier Worthy: 3.6 receptions, 44.2 receiving yards

• Steelers

  • QB Russell Wilson: 211.5 pass yards, 1.4 pass TD

  • RB Najee Harris: 57.3 Rush Yards, 11.7 receiving yards

  • TE Pat Freiermuth: 3.2 receptions, 33.5 receiving yards

Ravens vs. Texans: Playoff Seeding is at Stake for Both Teams

The Texans have already clinched the AFC South, while the Ravens are trying to keep pace with the Steelers in the AFC North. Here’s where FanDuel has the game:

• Spread: Ravens -5.5 (-110); Texans +5.5 (-110)

  • Ravens 9-6; Texans 5-9-1

• Moneyline: Ravens -250; Texans +205

  • Ravens 10-5; Texans 9-6

• Total (46.5): Over -115 / Under -105

  • Ravens 12-3; Texans 6-9

Ravens (10-5, 5-3 Away) vs. Texans (9-6, 5-2 Home)
4:30pm on Netflix

Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:

• Lamar Jackson has scrambled (run & pass) on 18.9% of his dropbacks this season, the 6th-highest rate in the NFL. His 7 total touchdown passes after scrambling from the pocket are the most in the NFL (0 INT).

• The Ravens defense has allowed 3.2 yards per carry and -133 rushing yards over expected on designed runs directed outside the tackles this season, both of which rank as the lowest marks in the NFL.

• The Texans offense has recorded a 37.7% overall success rate this season, the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL, ahead of only the Browns. Despite their inefficiency, they have recorded a 14.6% explosive play rate, 11th-highest in the NFL.

Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:

• Ravens

  • QB Lamar Jackson: 216.0 pass yards, 54.5 rush yards

  • RB Derrick Henry: 95.1 rush yards, 8.2 receiving yards

  • WR Zay Flowers: 5.2 receptions, 59.5 receiving yards

• Texans

  • QB C.J. Stroud: 247.0 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD

  • RB Joe Mixon: 74.0 rush yards, 23.7 receiving yards

  • WR Nico Collins: 5.6 receptions, 82.9 receiving yards

Spurs vs. Knicks: Red Hot Knicks Will Try to Keep Wemby Quiet in the Garden

The Knicks are one of the hottest teams in the NBA, as they’ve won 8 of 10 and four in a row. New York is 5-3 against the West this season. The Spurs continue to hover around .500 and still have a negative point differential. Here’s where FanDuel has the game:

• Spread: Knicks -9 (-112); Spurs +9 (-108)

  • Knicks 14-13-2; Spurs 14-15

• Moneyline: Knicks -420; Spurs +330

  • Knicks 19-10; Spurs 15-14

• Total (223.5): Over / Under -110

  • Knicks 16-13; Spurs 15-14

San Antonio Spurs (15-14, 4-7 Away) vs. New York Knicks (19-10, 9-4 Home)
12pm on ABC

Nuggets vs. Suns is Only Spread within 3 Today and Has Biggest Total (232.5) by 9

There are five NBA games on ABC/ESPN today competing with the two NFL matchups on Netflix. The Spurs vs. Knicks is the only cross-conference action, as three West-on-West games and the 76ers vs. Celtics follow. Here’s where FanDuel has the four games after San Antonio vs. New York at noon ET:

Minnesota Timberwolves (14-14, 6-8 Away) vs. Dallas Mavericks (19-10, 10-4 Home)
2:30pm on ABC

• Spread: Mavericks -5 (-112); Timberwolves +5 (-108)

  • Mavericks 17-11-1; Timberwolves 11-17

• Moneyline: Mavericks -198; Timberwolves +166

  • Mavericks 19-10; Timberwolves 14-14

• Total (221): Over / Under -110

  • Mavericks 16-13; Timberwolves 12-16

• Last 10: Mavericks 8-2 (W2); Timberwolves 6-4 (L3)

• Leading Scorer: DAL — Doncic (28.9); MIN — Edwards (25.6)

• Leading Rebounder: DAL — Doncic (8.6); MIN — Gobert (10.8)

• Leading Assists: DAL — Doncic (8.2); MIN — Conley 4.6

Philadelphia 76ers (10-17, 5-8 Away) vs. Boston Celtics (22-7, 11-4 Home)
5pm on ABC

• Spread: Celtics -8 (-110); 76ers +8 (-110)

  • Celtics 11-18; 76ers 10-17

• Moneyline: Celtics -370; 76ers +295

  • Celtics 22-7; 76ers 10-17

• Total (221): Over -112 / Under -108

  • Celtics 12-17; 76ers 13-14

• Last 10: Celtics 6-4 (L1); 76ers 7-3 (W1)

• Leading Scorer: BOS — Tatum (28.8); PHI — Maxey (25.1)

• Leading Rebounder: BOS — Tatum (9.3); PHI — Drummond (8.3)

• Leading Assists: BOS — Tatum (5.7); PHI — Maxey (5.0)

Los Angeles Lakers (16-13, 7-9 Away) vs. Golden State Warriors (15-13, 7-6 Home)
8pm on ABC

• Spread: Warriors -4 (-108); Lakers +4 (-112)

  • Warriors 16-12; Lakers 13-16

• Moneyline: Warriors -166; Lakers +140

  • Warriors 15-13; Lakers 16-13

• Total (223.5): Over / Under -110

  • Warriors 12-16; Lakers 12-17

• Last 10: Warriors 3-7 (L1); Lakers 5-5 (L1)

• Leading Scorer: GS — Curry (22.4); LAL — Davis (26.9)

• Leading Rebounder: GS — Looney (7.5); LAL — Davis (11.8)

• Leading Assists: GS — Curry (6.5); LAL — James (8.9)

Denver Nuggets (16-11, 8-7 Away) vs. Phoenix Suns (14-14, 9-6 Home)
10:30pm on ABC

• Spread: Nuggets -3 (-106); Suns +3 (-114)

  • Nuggets 11-15-1; Suns 9-19

• Moneyline: Nuggets -148; Suns +126

  • Nuggets 16-11; Suns 14-14

• Total (232.5): Over / Under -110

  • Nuggets 17-9-1; Suns 16-12

• Last 10: Nuggets 6-4 (W2); Suns 4-6 (L3)

• Leading Scorer: DEN — Jokic (30.9); PHX — Booker (25.1)

• Leading Rebounder: DEN — Jokic (13.0); PHX — Nurkic (9.9)

• Leading Assists: DEN — Jokic (9.8); PHX — T. Jones (6.7)

• Booker has been ruled out of the game due to a groin strain

In the News 

• Aaron Rodgers said he hasn’t talked to Jets owner Woody Johnson about returning to the team next season.

• Kirk Cousins will likely be looking for a new team next year after being benched.

• Colorado bought record insurance coverage for Sanders and Hunter to play in the Alamo Bowl.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• There are NFL and NBA games on Netflix and ABC from noon to after midnight. Enjoy!

Photo of the Day