Fantasy Preview: In Full Year with Penix Jr., Falcons Offense Should Rack Up Points

By Chris Farley

The Atlanta Falcons are akin to a slow loading screen; we know the transaction will finish eventually, but it’s taking a long time to get there. They’re likely one-step closer to success with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, now a second-year pro who mostly played well in three starts last season. Meanwhile, their offense still holds exceptional talent, although they did lose longtime center Drew Dalman, which could cause issues in the interior of their offensive line.

Overall this is an above-average offense dependent on an inexperienced thrower, with a defense that added more depth along their front. Their total defense desperately needs to improve (23rd or worse in major categories). It remains to be seen if coach Raheem Morris and a budding roster can rise to the occasion, which is why oddsmakers are relatively undecided on the potential of this program.

Odds to Make Playoffs: +155 at DraftKings

• Quarterback: Michael Penix Jr.

  • Last Season: 3 games, 61-105, 58%, 775 yards, 7.4 average, 258 yards/game, 3 TD, 3 Int

  • Michael Penix Jr. has sky-high potential, especially as a member of the Falcons. The 25-year-old stepped in seamlessly to replace Kirk Cousins last season, showing confidence and maturity in three starts. He’s flanked by some of the most talented receivers in the league, with a running back that’s feared by opposing defenses and creates more opportunities in the passing game. If he has good protection this season, he’ll be in a great position to finish as a top-10 fantasy QB.

• Running Back Bijan Robinson: 

  • Last Season: 17 games, 304 carries, 1,456 yards, 4.8 average, 6 plays of 26+ yards or more, 15 TD, 86 yards/game, 0 fumbles lost

  • Especially with a new(ish) QB, the Falcons will depend on their stalwart back, a guy who also brought in 432 receiving yards last season. They lost center Drew Dalman in free agency but kept most of their offensive line, a group that made Robinson and company a top-10 rushing program in 2024 (130.5 yards per game). Whether on the ground or in the pass-game, Robinson averaged 21.4 touches per game last season and we project an even larger share in 2025.

• Wide Receiver: Drake London

  • Last Season: 17 games, 100 receptions, 158 targets, 1,271yards, 12.7 average, 9 TD, 5 plays of 26+ yards, 75 yards/game, 273 yards after catch

  • London leads a talented WR group in Atlanta after a breakout season, recording top-10 marks in receptions and touchdowns and a top-4 finish in receiving yards. With Michael Penix Jr. at QB, his targets only climbed, seeing the ball come his way 39 times in three games and totaling 352 receiving yards. Although surrounded by an exceptional group, Penix has chosen his favorite target and we expect the same energy in 2025.

• Tight End: Kyle Pitts

  • Last Season: 17 games, 47 receptions, 74 targets, 602 yards, 12.8 average, 4 TD, 3 plays of 49+ yards, 35 yards/game, 327 yards after catch

  • Pitts was considered a generational talent when he came into the league, but he’s never had a huge season. Part of that is because of the breadth of talent that surrounds him in Atlanta, and part of that is lack of continuity at the QB position. In his first season he earned over 1,000 yards but has only averaged 542 yards per year the last three seasons. While he always has tremendous upside, we’re not bullish on Pitts to stand out enough to become a top-5 or even a top-10 TE in the league.

• Defense

  • Last Season: 24.9 points per game allowed (23rd), 45.28% 3rd down conversion rate (31st), 4th down 53.85%, 12 interceptions (20th), 31 sacks (31st), 6 fumbles caused, 6 fumbles recovered, 45 touchdowns allowed

  • The Falcons’ defense is the unit that holds them back. In 2024 nearly all of their marks were underwhelming and/or below average, one of the worst sacking teams in the NFL (31st) and allowing plenty of points (23rd) and yards (22nd) in every contest. This offseason they’ve improved in some areas, particularly on their defensive line, signing EDGE Leonard Floyd and drafting EDGEs Jalon Walker and James Pearce. Still, we’re not convinced Atlanta has the administration or continuity to expect anything spectacular this season, and we’d steer clear of this group in fantasy leagues.