Six More Super Bets to Watch as Chiefs and Eagles Arrive in New Orleans

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: A way too early look at the Heisman

• NFL: The past 13 Super Bowls averaged just 7 points in the 1st quarter

• NBA: Grizzlies are 6-1 to the over in the 2nd leg of back-to-backs

• NBA: SGA is averaging 40.2 points over his past 5 games

• NCAAM: The under hit in 13 of 15 games with KU as the favorite

• Overtime: More on the Luka/AD trade

Yes it’s Super Bowl Week, but we’re starting off with different football today (more Super Bowl bets are below). University of Texas quarterback Arch Manning opens as the betting favorite to win next season’s Heisman, though he’s not quite the consensus pick (FanDuel gives the nod to LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier).

Here’s where DraftKings has the field:

1. Manning (+700, and +750 at ESPN Bet, +800 at BetMGM, and +900 at FanDuel)

2. Nussmeier (+900)

3. Penn State QB Drew Allar (+1000)

4. Clemson QB Cade Klubnik (+1400)

5. Ohio State QB Julian Sayin (+1500)

6. Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (+1600)

7. Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava (+1800)

8. Miami QB Carson Beck (+2000)

Reminder: Quarterbacks have won the Heisman in 20 of the past 25 years.

In today’s newsletter, Chris has more Super Bowl bets to consider, Jack and Craig cover the night’s NBA slate, and we have betting trends for five men’s college basketball games.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. The other NBA trade of the weekend could have an even longer-term impact, as the Victor Wembanyama + De'Aaron Fox merger should be a gamechanger in the West and the league for years to come (combined they’re just eight years older than LeBron).

Will Super Bowl QB Legs Make the Difference in Big Game Rematch?

By Chris Farley

Eagles vs. Chiefs over 48.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Eagles qualify as one of the most elite offenses in the NFL, particularly their explosive ground attack (186.6 yards per game). Kansas City's offense isn't as pristine on paper, but Patrick Mahomes' clutch nature (like his 48.19% third-down conversion rate, a 3rd-place mark) and arguably the NFL's greatest play-caller means they're going to answer the call. Eventually, this should turn into a back-and-forth affair between two superb quarterbacks. No defense has proven that it can stop Philadelphia or Kansas City when it matters most this season. We project a 30-27 finish, which sees this game going comfortably over the total.

Patrick Mahomes over 29.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Remember when everyone assumed that Josh Allen's running ability would be the difference in an AFC title game? Turned out — that was Patrick Mahomes' honor. Mahomes doesn't always scramble or run for many yards. He's a pass-first quarterback, but in big games he routinely tucks and runs, especially when facing above-average defenses. His playmaking and athletic ability are consistently two of his most underrated qualities, ones he exhibited in the biggest contests this season (43 rush yards last Sunday, 29 against Cincinnati, 39 against San Francisco). Mahomes is surely up against an above-average defense again in Super Bowl LIX; expect him to use his legs as often as he needs to.

Highest Scoring Half: Second (-105 at FanDuel)
Two years ago, the Eagles and Chiefs accomplished a very rare feat: They both scored on their very first drives, pumping the first quarter up to 14 points for only the second time since 2011. The past 13 Super Bowls averaged just 7 points in the first quarter, with only two eclipsing 10 points. This season, Philly's defense is astoundingly better, anchored by a fierce defensive line and gifted with all-world talent in their secondary. Vic Fangio keeps them motivated and disciplined, too. Kansas City's defense seems to always be at its best in big-game moments, and we suspect this rematch will start far more typically (slowly). We expect momentum to catch later in the first half, giving way to a productive second.

Jalen Hurts under 40.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Saquon Barkley's 2,005 rushing yards are 41% of the Eagles' production, and he's carried the ball more than any other back in the NFL this season. His success means that Philly's quarterback doesn't need to put his body on the line as much as he used to. Hurts has been using his legs consistently in the playoffs (70 rushing yards vs LAR, 36 vs GB), but only barreled for 16 yards last week. He was dealing with knee injuries heading into the NFC title game, but reports say he's over it now. We'll see. Either way, Kansas City let Hurts run for 70 yards two years ago, and we like Steve Spagnuolo to come with an aggressive, downhill game-plan that forces Hurts to throw. We'll go against the grain here.

Jalen Hurts over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+180 on FanDuel)
We might not love Hurts' rushing prospects against Kansas City, but through the air is a different story. Spagnuolo is going to try and force Hurts to win the game with his arm. If you asked us if we thought Hurts was one of the elite quarterbacks in the league, we'd say no. That doesn't mean he hasn't been excellent in many big-time moments. In Super Bowl LVII, he played a damn-near perfect game, going 27/38 for 304 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. He sees this as an opportunity for revenge. While Spagnuolo is focused on stopping their run-game, the Eagles' would be wise to cash in through the air. We like Philly's elite receivers to be featured in the red-zone.

Each team to score 1 TD + 1 FG in each half (+1300 at FanDuel)
If we like the total over, this feels like a rather opportunistic wager. We know how skilled the two quarterbacks and surrounding stars are, but this should be a back and forth affair with plenty of big plays made by each defense, too. The idea that both teams will "settle" for a field goal, something that feels like a rarer feat in today's NFL, is more probable in this matchup. Philadelphia is 5th (48.28%) and Kansas City is 10th (53.33%) in opponent red-zone touchdown rate, and both have playmakers that routinely stymie enemy drives near the goal line. These feel like very fortunate odds, given the clashing talent on both sides.

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Memphis Ranks 3rd in Offensive Efficiency and Plays at League’s 5th-Fastest Pace Over Past 10

By Craig Williams

Wizards +4.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
The Hornets have lost four in a row straight-up, and they’re entering tonight with an 0-8 record against division foes, including three straight losses — straight-up and against the spread — to the Wizards (who are 4-3 within the Southeast division). They’re coming off of a win against the Timberwolves on Saturday, and while their net rating is dead-last over their past four games, the Hornets rank 27th over that span. Finally, the Hornets’ slow pace and poor offensive rating should allow the Wizards, as bad as they are on paper, to remain close.

Wizards vs. Hornets under 217 points (-108 at DraftKings)
Neither the Hornets nor the Wizards are good offensively, which is a nice way of putting it. They rank next to last and dead last, respectively, in offensive rating over the past four games, but they’ve been similarly poor offensively over longer stretches of time. Matters are worse for the Hornets, who are missing both LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. With respect to the Hornets, they are playing stingy defense of late. Combine that with the slow pace at which the Hornets are playing, and we like a low-scoring contest.

Spurs +1.5 first quarter (-112 at DraftKings)
We’re breaking away from the quantitative analysis here and putting qualitative considerations at the forefront. It’s widely accepted that the Spurs were big winners with their weekend acquisition of point guard De’Aaron Fox. From an organizational perspective, that excitement trickles throughout the ranks, especially when they get to pair a player like Fox with Victor Wembanyama. The fact that the Spurs didn’t have to break up their nucleus or disrupt their rotation should have the team excited and a little juiced up to play tonight. Perhaps enough to give the Grizzlies some trouble in the first quarter.

Memphis over 122.5 points (-115 at ESPNBET)
The Grizzlies are not phased by back-to-backs, especially when it comes to the scoring column. They’re 6-1 to the over in the second leg of back-to-backs, and they’ve been especially proficient across their past 10 — a stretch over which they’re 6-3-1 to the over. They’re playing at the game’s fifth-fastest pace while ranking No. 3 in offensive efficiency over that span as well. Even if the Spurs do come out hot in the wake of their blockbuster trade acquisition, we like the Grizzlies’ depth to deliver at home.

Wolves moneyline (-180 at FanDuel)
Nothing will spark a team back into focus like a loss at home to the Washington Wizards. The Wolves didn’t have Anthony Edwards on Saturday due to illness. He’s listed as questionable for tonight, but we’re operating as if he’ll play. Double check the startling lineups before placing your bet. It’s reasonable to suggest the Kings may feel as though the rug was pulled from underneath them, at least in the short-term, especially since this trade is coming off of the heels of a relatively recent coach firing. 

Bucks are Last in the NBA in Points to Opposing Point Guards at 26.42/Game, Face SGA Tonight

By Jack Dougherty

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score 35+ points (+100 at FanDuel)
The Bucks have been torched by scoring point guards all season long. Milwaukee ranks dead last in the NBA in points allowed per game to opposing point guards (26.42), and it’s recently given up 40 points to James Harden and 37 to Tyrese Maxey. In comes Gilgeous-Alexander, the best scoring PG in the NBA. SGA is averaging 40.2 points per game over his past five starts, and he should be able to keep it rolling in this juicy matchup. 

Nuggets vs. Pelicans over 241 points (-108 at DraftKings)
This has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. The Nuggets play at the fifth-fastest pace in the NBA, and although the Pelicans rank in the middle of the pack in terms of pace this season, they’ve played at the third-fastest pace in the league over the past 10 games. The last time New Orleans went up against a top-five pace team, the Pelicans and Grizzlies combined to score 265 points. Now they have to face a Nuggets team averaging 126.8 points per game over their past five home games. 

Jose Alverado over 9.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)
Alverado took on a much larger scoring role last game after Dejounte Murray suffered a torn Achilles. The point guard filled in to play 34 minutes and score 20 points on 6-14 shooting and 3-9 from three. That volume is impossible to ignore with Murray now out for the rest of the season. Alverado’s usage is going to explode going forward, so now is the time to look at this prop before sportsbooks adjust to his new role. 

Isaiah Collier over 19.5 points + rebounds + assists (-106 at FanDuel)
Collier has been a stat-stuffing machine since being promoted to Utah’s starting lineup. The rookie point guard has cleared this mark in nine of his past 10 games, and he ranks fifth in the NBA in potential assists per game (14.6) in that span. This is also a friendly matchup against the Pacers, which has given up 54 PRA to Trae Young, 46 to Cade Cunningham and 29 to Stephon Castle in their past three games. Collier should stay busy in this fast-paced matchup.

Magic team total under 105.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)
The Magic have been one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA all season, and there aren’t many recent signs of improvement. Orlando has gone under this line in six of its past seven road games, averaging just 98.7 points per game in that span. That average would be even lower if not for a 119-point performance against the Heat in double overtime last week. The Warriors rank second in the NBA in points allowed in the paint per game (45.2) and sixth in fastbreak points allowed per game (14.0), so they’re going to force the Magic to beat them with outside shots in the halfcourt. Orlando isn’t equipped to do that. 

Betting Trends: KU Stays Under as Favorites, While Pitt Goes Over When Favored

No. 3 Iowa State (17-4, 7-3 Big 12) vs. No. 11 Kansas (15-6, 6-4 Big 12)

• The under hit in 13 of the past 15 games when Kansas was the favorite

• Kansas’s Zeke Mayo scored at least 16 points in 7 straight home games (23.6 average)

Virginia (10-12, 3-8 ACC) vs. Pittsburgh (14-7, 5-5 ACC)

• Pitt is 26-5 in their past 31 games as the favorite, and the over hit in 7 of the Panthers’ past 9 games as the favorite

• UVA’s Isaac McKneely has gone over 13.5 points in 4 of his past 5 games (18.0 average)

Charleston (17-5, 7-2 CAA) vs. William & Mary (13-9, 7-2 CAA)

• Charleston is 11-2 in their past 13 road games

• Charleston is 4-1 against the spread in their past 5 road games, and the under hit in 6 of their past 8 road games

North Texas (16-5, 7-2 American) vs. UAB (14-8, 7-2 American)

• UAB’s Yaxel Lendeborg grabbed at least 12 rebounds in 4 of his past 5 home games (12.8 average)

• UNT’s Moulaye Sissoko combined for over 14.5 points + rebounds in 4 of his past 5 road games (18.4 average)

Northern Colorado (16-6, 8-1 Big Sky) vs. Idaho State (10-10, 5-4 Big Sky)

• Northern Colorado is 8-1 in their past 9 games as the favorite

• Northern Colorado is 4-1 against the spread in their past 5 road games

In the News 

• League executives are still shocked that the Mavericks traded Doncic.

• The Chiefs’ transformation from lovable underdogs to disliked potential three-peaters.

• The NFL is improving its technology, but still has to rely on humans (refs).

• Could the Yankees be better this season without Soto?

• How did the Spurs not have to give up Stephon Castle in the De’Aaron Fox trade?

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: No. 10 Duke vs. No. 17 NC State in women’s college basketball on ESPN2

• 7:30pm: Rockets vs. Knicks on NBA TV (followed by Magic vs. Warriors at 10pm)

• 9pm: No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 11 Kansas, both coming off losses, on ESPN

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