Barkley Averages 6.7 YPC in 2nd Half + 7 More Super Bowl Bets to Watch

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Five things to watch in Super Bowl LIX

• NFL: 7 more Super Bowl bets

• NBA: Atlanta has allowed 126+ points in four straight

• NBA: Holmgren is back for OKC for the first time since Nov. 10

• NCAAM: USC is 7-1 against the spread over its past 8 road games

• NHL: Skjei has at least one shot on goal in 19 straight on the road

• NFL: Sportmoney x PFF Super Bowl edition

• Overtime: Is the Tush Push stoppable?

The Super Bowl circus in New Orleans is making way for the actual game. Head to our website for the Super Bowl edition of the Sportmoney x PFF weekly rundown.

Here are five things to watch for on Sunday, via NFL Next Gen Stats:

1. Saquon Barkley generated +496 rushing yards over expected in the second half of games this season, the most by any player in a season since at least 2018. Barkley averaged 1.9 more yards per carry in the second half (6.7) compared to the first half (4.8).

2. The Chiefs defense recorded the lowest missed tackle rate in the NFL this season (10.7%). They have been even more efficient bringing down opposing ball carriers during their playoff run, recording an 8.6% missed tackle rate.

3. The Eagles have called a pass play on 44.7% of 1st and 2nd downs this season (including playoffs), the lowest rate in the NFL.

4. Travis Kelce leads all players in receptions (61), receiving yards (933), and receiving touchdowns (10) on scramble plays since 2018. Only 3 other players have even half as many scramble receptions and only 6 other players have at least half as many receiving yards on scramble plays.

5. Jalen Hurts has completed 13 of 14 passes for 240 yards when targeting Dallas Goedert on 3rd down this season including the playoffs (8 first downs).

In today’s newsletter, Craig has more Super Bowl bets to watch, Chris and Jack cover the NBA, and we have betting trends for five men’s college basketball games and all five of tonight’s NHL matchups.

— Abe Rakov

Hunt Scored in Both Chiefs Playoff Games and Had 7 TDs in 13 Regular Season Appearances

By Craig Williams

Eagles moneyline (+102 at FanDuel)
“Don’t bet against the Chiefs” is a popular approach, and for good reason. However, we’ve seen the Chiefs taken down — albeit by Tom Brady-led teams — and Jalen Hurts nearly led the Eagles to a win over Kansas City two years ago. The fact that several Eagles experienced the pomp and circumstance of Super Bowl Sunday is huge. As is typically the case between the two Super Bowl participants, both teams are so good that it’s difficult to lean on stats when making picks. The Eagles’ strength on both sides of the trenches, however, especially considering they blitz less than 20% of the time on defense, is what should provide the Eagles with an edge.

Eagles vs. Chiefs under 49 points (-105 at BetMGM)
It’s easy to be swayed by the fireworks that the Chiefs and Eagles delivered in Super Bowl LVII, but we’re expecting a different type of game this time around. This particular Chiefs team simply doesn’t light up the scoreboard. They’re so well constructed and well-coached that they have the luxury of winning with “boring” football. But what one may consider boring, another will call complementary, and because the Chiefs and Eagles are both equipped to play complementary football, fans and bettors can anticipate a cagey, pragmatic contest. Fans of soccer can equate it to a World Cup or Champions League final that produces a low-scoring result. Both the Eagles and Chiefs finished top four in points allowed, and we expect both teams to be patient and disciplined.

Most passing yards: Patrick Mahomes (-240 at FanDuel)
We’re taking the theoretical layup here, backing Mahomes to produce more passing yards than Jalen Hurts. Naturally, it’s difficult to find the metrics on paper that suggest Hurts is a more prolific passer than Mahomes. Even Mahomes’ career-worst yards-per-game — 245.5 (2024) — is nearly identical to Hurts’ career-best yards-per-game — 246.7 (2022). More than stats though, we’re considering the style of both quarterbacks and teams. Hurts is more willing to rely on his legs in addition to sharing the backfield with arguably the game’s best running back. Finally, when it’s crunch time for the Chiefs, the ball will be in No. 15’s hands. The same is largely true for the Eagles and Hurts, but they have the luxury of letting him run or hand the ball off to a game-changing back.

Saquon Barkley anytime TD (-190 at DraftKings)
We’re not chasing big profits here, but Barkley obviously presents an attractive touchdown scorer play thanks to his versatility and propensity to make house calls. He averaged nearly a touchdown per game during the regular season before adding five more during the postseason. Barkley certainly has to contend with the “Brotherly Shove” if/when the Eagles are working from the goal line, but there are a lot of avenues through which Barkley can find the paint.

Kareem Hunt 1+ TD (+130 at ESPNBET)
The Chiefs have not been shy about leaning on “budget backs” over the course of their dynasty — Damien Williams in 2020 and Isiah Pacheco in 2022 and 2023. Pacheco is still in the mix, but old flame Kareem Hunt appears to be the lead back for Andy Reid and Co. He scored a touchdown in each of the Chiefs’ two playoff games after tallying seven in 13 regular-season games. The Chiefs have no qualms about playing “boring” football, and that includes handling the ball off to Hunt when they’re close to the goal line.

Jake Elliott over 6.5 points (-130 at FanDuel)
This is a play that will be most appealing for bettors who are backing the Eagles to win on Sunday and/or those eyeing a relatively low-scoring and conservative contest. The Eagles and Chiefs both rank top four in points allowed, which supports the theory of a game with a healthy serving of field goal attempts. Furthermore, the Chiefs allowed 1.9 field goal attempts per game this season. Finally, even for those betting the under, it’s not crazy to expect the Eagles to find the paint and provide Elliott with the opportunity to tack on an extra point or two before the night is done. 

Parlay: DeVonta Smith Anytime TD + over 51.5 receiving yards (+350 at bet365)
We offered a couple of wagers with short odds, here’s one with a little more profit potential. Smith is a No. 1 type of receiver who just happens to play alongside A.J. Brown. He finished the season hot, averaging 79.3 yards per game and producing a 17-touchdown pace. And Smith would’ve hit this parlay six times during the regular season. He has since caught all 12 of his playoff targets, and while he only went over the yardage in one of those matchups (vs. Green Bay), it’s worth remembering that the Eagles played the Rams in the snow in the divisional round before building a big lead fairly early in the NFC title game. 

Miami’s Top-10 Defense Over Past 2 Weeks Could Get Even More Solid With End of Butler Drama

By Chris Farley

Wizards +17 (-105 at BetOnline)
Cleveland finally got their wing, acquiring DeAndre Hunter from the Hawks in exchange for depth pieces and Caris LeVert, who's been injured. The Wizards, meanwhile, have quietly won three straight games and shockingly, it's because of their defense. Ranked 8th over their past five contests, Washington parted ways with Kyle Kuzma but brought in two veterans, Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart, as DC looks to fortify their roster. The Cavs are huge favorites (-17.5) on the road, but in reality this is a meaningless spot for Cleveland, which is coming off a humbling loss to Boston and a very tight win against division foe, Detroit. Washington can slow this down and keep it respectable; which this spread is not.

Spurs -10.5 (-110 consensus)
It's hard to know how to bet on teams following all the movement of an NBA trade deadline, but this game presents a clearer picture. San Antonio looked fantastic with De’Aaron Fox, joining Victor Wembanyama by scoring 24 points and adding 13 assists to boot. The combination of Fox and Wemby promises to add more dynamism to a Spurs' offense that often seemed too reliant on the giant Frenchman. Even if it was clunky, we wouldn't hesitate to fire against their opponent on Friday. The Hornets picked up Dalton Knecht from the Lakers, a solid addition, but they're still without LaMelo Ball and they present a -9.5 average point differential in their past 6 games. This is Spurs or pass.

Hornets under 109 points (-110 at Bovada)
Arguably no offense is suffering more than the Charlotte Hornets. Perhaps new trade piece Dalton Knecht will help, but a rookie going through such a dramatic roster change is probably going to take time. Charlotte continues to proceed without their star, LaMelo Ball, and it shows. Since the new year, few offenses profile worse (they're 26th), and they're bottom-two over their past five games. They're also 27th in true shooting and effective field goal percentage since the new year, and no team has scored fewer points in that same five-game span (101.4). San Antonio's defense hasn't always been consistent, but this is a chance for Wemby and the gang to bring out the clamps.

Victor Wembanyama over 25.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)
This is a rare opportunity for Wembanyama, who's about to face one of the most porous front courts in the association. The Hornets have been average in the painted area (15th in opponent paint-points per game), but their trade of Mark Williams raises many red flags. Acquiring the injured Jusuf Nurkic, Charlotte will have to cover Wemby with Moussa Diabate, a fellow Frenchman who has struggled to adjust to pro-ball. Averaging just 18.7 minutes per game, Diabate is undersized (6'9"), and while he's a good rebounder (6.9 per game), his defense lacks the intensity and athleticism needed to limit Wemby (who's averaged 26 points per game the past two weeks).

Bucks over 125.5 points (-106 at FanDuel)
The Bucks brought in Kyle Kuzma to replace Khris Middleton, a guy who never quite blossomed into the "number-two" that Milwaukee hoped for. A budding young star that appears unmotivated at times, when Kuzma is focused he's a lights-out shooter who can elevate the roster around him. The Hawks, who have allowed 126+ in four straight games, added some depth pieces (Georges Niang, Caris LeVert), but did nothing to improve their defense. Over the past week few units have been worse (they're 26th). Reports suggest Kuzma will start tonight, and the Bucks are desperate to get back on track, having dropped five of their past seven. We expect an offensive showcase from the road favorites.

Heat -6 (-105 at Bovada)
In one of the most impactful trades of this NBA season, Jimmy Butler was sent to Golden State for Andrew Wiggins, Kyle Anderson, and a first-round draft pick. Wiggins brings immediate mid-range scoring, Anderson is a solid all-around player, and more than anything the Heat needed to move on from Butler. The Nets, who did nothing inspiring before the trade-deadline and are in talks to release Ben Simmons (finally), appear to be in a fully embraced rebuild. The Heat have quietly risen to a top-10 defense over the past two weeks, winning four of their past six while averaging a healthy 114 points per game. All the momentum and excitement is on Miami's side.

Heat vs. Nets under 211 points (-110 at Bovada)
We think Miami will win this contest by margin, but that doesn't mean it'll be pretty. As the Heat look to move on from Jimmy Butler and re-establish chemistry, their offense has struggled to keep up with their defense. Over the past two weeks their offense ranks just 24th overall. Combined with a 25th-ranked tempo, it's plain to see why Miami games have been consistently low scoring (discounting a weird game against Chicago, the Heat's past five games average just 213 in regulation). Brooklyn is even slower over the past two weeks (ranked 30th), 26th on offense and 5th on defense. Considering this recipe, this battle might struggle to reach 200.

Collier Averaged 26 Points + Assists in 4 Games Without Collin Sexton (Tonight’s Total is 19.5)

By Jack Dougherty

Tyrese Maxey under 27.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)
It’s not easy to fade Maxey right now. The 76ers point guard has gone over this line in 16 straight games and scored at least 30 in seven straight, but those all came with Philadelphia not at full strength. Joel Embiid and Paul George are expected to play Friday night, which should cut into the massive volume Maxey has been seeing lately. The big three has played just 10 games together this season, and Maxey went under this line in seven of those contests — averaging only 23.0 points. This is a good opportunity to fade Maxey at his peak price.

Joel Embiid over 28.5 points (-120 at FanDuel)
Whereas Maxey’s points prop is too high, Embiid’s is too low if we’re assuming he’s close to full health. Embiid returned earlier this week after a lengthy absence and put up 29 points against the Mavericks, and he did so while going just 4-9 from the free-throw line. The big man typically gets to the line double-digit times and knocks them down at better than an 80% clip. This number is too low for the most dominant scorer in the NBA.

Scottie Barnes under 5.5 assists (+116 at FanDuel)
This prop is set in this range because RJ Barrett has been ruled out with a concussion, but Barnes has averaged just 10.0 potential assists in the past two games without Barrett. The Thunder also present the worst possible matchup for Barnes, as they lead the NBA in opponent shooting percentage (43.0%) and rank fourth in opponent assists per game (24.1). This price is too good to not consider against the best defense in the NBA.

Chet Holmgren under 16.5 points + rebounds (-102 at FanDuel)
Holmgren is set to return to the court for the first time since Nov. 10, and this feels like a good spot to fade him in what should be a light workload. The Thunder will have him on a minutes limit coming off a pelvic fracture, and there’s a high blowout probability with this 19-point spread. Additionally, this will be Holmgren’s first time playing alongside Isaiah Hartenstein, who’s proven to be a better and more consistent rebounder for Oklahoma City. 

Isaiah Collier over 19.5 points + assists (-105 at DraftKings)
Collier has been impressive this season when he’s taken over as the primary ball-handler and playmaker for the Jazz. In four games without Collin Sexton on the court, the rookie point guard has averaged 15.5 points and 10.5 assists. He’s averaged 18.5 potential assists in the past two games without Sexton, which is the seventh-highest mark in the NBA over that span. The assist chances will be there, and the Suns give up the sixth-most points per game to opposing point guards (25.29).

Bradley Beal under 18.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
Beal has gone over this line in three of his past four games, but his recent shooting isn’t sustainable. He’s averaged just 11.3 field-goal attempts and shot 43-79 (54.4%) from the floor over his past seven games. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are the alphas on this team, and Beal will always take a back seat to them offensively. His recent shooting hot streak has created a valuable bet on this under.

Betting Trends: USC Overs as the Underdog, St. John’s Richmond’s Steals Streak

USC (13-9, 5-6 Big Ten) vs. No. 7 Purdue (18-5, 10-2 Big Ten)

• USC is 7-1 against the spread over its past 8 road games

• The over hit in 7 of the past 8 games where the Trojans were the underdog

No. 12 St. John's (20-3, 11-1 Big East) vs. 19 UConn (16-6, 8-3 Big East)

• The Red Storm’s Kadary Richmond has at least two steals in 10 straight games (2.6 average)

• The over hit in 9 of the past 12 games where UConn was the favorite

VCU ( 18-5, 8-2 A-10) vs. Dayton (16-7, 6-4 A-10)

• Dayton is 0-7 against the spread over its past 7 games vs. top 25 scoring defenses

• VCU’s Phillip Russell scored at least 13 points in 7 of his past 8 road games (16.6 average)

San Jose State (12-12, 5-7 Mountain West) vs. Boise State (16-7, 8-4 Mountain West)

• San Jose State is 7-0 against the spread over its past 7 road games, but is 2-13 in its past 15 road games

• The over hit in 7 of the past 8 San Jose State road games

Saint Louis (14-9, 7-3 A-10) vs. Saint Joseph's (13-9, 4-5 A-10)

• Saint Joseph's is 1-4 against the spread over its past 5 home games

• SLU’s Kobe Johnson has collected over 11.5 points + rebounds in 5 straight games (17.0 average)

Stats to Watch: Nelson’s Shots on Goal, Rangers’ Unders at Home

Penguins (22-24-9, 9-14-5 Away) vs. Rangers (26-23-4, 14-11-2 Home)

• Pittsburgh’s Anthony Beauvillier has gone over 1.5 shots on goal in 5 straight road games (3.0 average)

• The under hit in 6 of the past 8 Rangers home games

Islanders (25-21-7, 12-10-5 Away) vs. Jets (38-14-3, 21-5-3 Home)

• The Islanders’ Brock Nelson had at least two shots on goal in 11 of his past 12 games (2.9 average)

• The Islanders are 8-1 against the spread over their past 9 games

Predators (18-27-7, 6-17-4 Away) vs. Blackhawks (16-31-6, 10-14-3 Home)

• Nashville’s Brady Skjei has at least one shot on goal in 19 straight road games (1.9 average)

• Chicago’s Ryan Donato has gone over 0.5 shots on goal in 18 of his past 19 games vs. bottom-10 defenses for shots on goal allowed (2.4 average)

Avalanche (31-22-2, 15-12-0 Away) vs. Oilers (34-16-4, 18-9-2 Home)

• The under hit in 10 of the past 12 Oilers home games

• The Avalanche’s Martin Necas has at least 3 shots on goal in 5 of his past 6 games (4.0 average)

Stars (34-18-11, 4-11-0 Away) vs. Kings (28-17-6, 16-3-1 Home)

• LA’s Trevor Moore has gone over 1.5 shots on goal in 6 games in a row (2.7 average)

• The Stars’ Logan Stankoven has at least 2 shots on goal in 10 of his past 13 road games (3.2 average)

Sportmoney x PFF Rundown: Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes when using his legs:

• 5.4% scramble rate in regular season 

• 19.6% scramble rate in postseason 

How will QB sneaks / the Tush Push impact the game? 

• Mahomes: No QB sneaks since the 2020 season 

• Jalen Hurts: 136 QB sneaks since the 2020 season (Josh Allen is 2nd with 93)

Will Jalen Hurts respond to pressure like he did in the 2022 Super Bowl or like he did during this past season?

• In 2024, when pressured: 

  • 31.8 Passing Grade 

  • 44.4% completion percentage 

  • 12 turnover-worthy plays (5.6% TWP Rate) 

• In 2024, when not pressured: 

  • 90.5 Passing Grade 

  • 80% completion percentage 

  • 6 turnover-worthy plays (1.9% TWP Rate) 

• In the 2022 Super Bowl vs the Chiefs, when pressured: 

  • 84.0 Passing Grade 

  • 2 Big Time Throws 

  • 0 turnover-worthy plays 

Read the full Sportmoney x PFF Rundown: Super Bowl Edition, which also includes stats and info on running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, on Sportmoney.com.

In the News 

• The Chiefs have a plan to stop the Tush Push.

• The Nets are trying to offload Ben Simmons’ contract.

• Indiana men’s basketball coach Mike Woodson is likely to be coaching his final games with the school.

• The Dodgers are leaning into the Evil Empire persona with a Death Star giveaway this season.

• MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred says that some fans are “concerned” about how their teams can compete without a salary cap.

• Mahomes says he isn’t sure he’s met Tommy Tuberville even though the coach-turned-Senator said he “got to be very good friends with him.”

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: USC vs. No. 7 Purdue in men’s college basketball on FS1

• 7:30pm: 76ers vs. Pistons on ESPN

• 8pm: A huge Big East men’s basketball battle between No. 12 St. John’s and No. 19 UConn on FOX

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