LeBron Averaged 31.2 Points in Past 5 Games, Wizards Should Be Better than +11.5 vs. Spurs

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Eagles win! (and you could win a $100 Nike gift card)

• Top 10 Bets: Denver has a 15-4 record since January 8th

• Game of the Day: Warriors vs. Bucks betting preview

• Betting Trends: FAU unders as the favorite

• Player Profile: No. 5 Houston’s leading scorer

• Overtime: Super Bowl MVP Hurts on coming back from losses

The Eagles’ blowout win over the Chiefs could mean that sportsbooks didn’t have as good of a Super Bowl as Philly fans. Just before kickoff, 53% of the moneyline money was with the Eagles (who ended around +100). And in a bigger loss for Vegas, over 80% of the money was with over 48.5 points. The sportsbooks still raked in cash yesterday, but bettors got theirs too.

In honor of the NFL season coming to a close, we’re launching a contest: How would you like a $100 Nike gift card? Whoever refers the most new subscribers to Sportmoney between today and Thursday will win $100. It’s easy, just scroll the bottom of this newsletter to see your custom referral code and start sending it to your friends and family (remember: it’s free!). The more people you get to subscribe, the better chance you have to win. We’ll have more referral contests over the next few months, so watch this space!

In the newsletter, Chris has today’s top 10 bets to watch, and we have a full breakdown of the Warriors vs. Bucks, look at betting trends for four men’s college basketball games, and profile No. 5 Houston’s leading scorer, L.J. Cryer.

— Abe Rakov

LeBron Scored 10.8 Points per First Quarter Over Past Five Games

By Chris Farley

Hawks +5 (-108 at FanDuel)
It's important to practice supreme caution this week in the NBA, since every team is anticipating the All Star break. That said, we still see plenty of value in the market. The Hawks just shouldn't be underdogs on Monday. Orlando is getting healthier and they're at home — that's probably why they're the chalk — but the results haven't been there. Their star, Paolo Banchero, still doesn't look like himself (40% from the field since returning in early January), and from the start of 2025 no offense has been worse (30th in offensive efficiency). Atlanta is inconsistent, but we know they can score and they're rated just as highly on defense during the same span (ATL is 14th, ORL is 13th). This profiles as a very close contest.

Paolo Banchero under 22.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
It's been a bleak return from injury for a guy who used to be Orlando's leading scorer. Banchero doesn't look confident when he's on the court, perhaps still recovering from the oblique injury that sidelined him for 34 games. Whatever the reason is, the stats don't lie: Banchero averaged just 21 in January and 17 points per game in five February contests, both far below his mark in October (29). Even more startling is his lack of efficiency. Before injury he was making 49.5% of his shots; since the start of the calendar year it's down to just 40%. Atlanta's defense isn't reliable but it may not matter; recent history suggests Banchero should struggle to hit this number.

Wizards +11.5 (-105 at Bookmaker)
Here we go betting on the Wizards again, but if it ain't broke, don't fix it! Washington is showing a ton of grit lately, winners of three of their past five and covering ATS in four. In their last matchup, a bad loss at Atlanta, they were on a back-to-back. Before that loss, their defense ranked 13th, a considerable improvement compared to what we're used to. Make no mistake, the Wizards are not a good program, but this is also the biggest spread San Antonio has seen all season, they're on the road, and they have a huge lookahead against Boston on Wednesday. This is a little too much disrespect in the market.

Derrick White over 15.5 points (-105 at Bovada)
Derrick White is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. A key cog of the championship machine that is the current Celtics, White is often their most clutch player in close games. This season, his shooting percentage is below his norm (44.3%), but beyond the arc it's his second most efficient campaign in eight years as a pro (38.3%). Jrue Holiday is out, and both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are questionable, nursing various ailments. White is averaging 18 points per game in his past seven contests, eclipsing tonight's number in five of those affairs. With a potentially shallow roster, we like White to have a substantial impact.

Warriors team total over 118.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)
The new-look Golden State Warriors made quite a statement on Saturday night. At one point down 24 points, Steph Curry engineered a memorable comeback with his new running-mate, Jimmy Butler. The duo combined for 59 points, each instantly benefitting from the others' presence by the level of attention each garnered from their opponent's defense. The Bulls were no match, permitting 132 points to a Warriors' offense that shot 50% from the field and 40% from beyond the arc. We like their momentum to continue into Monday, and we don't trust that the Bucks' defense, a unit that ranks 28th the past two weeks, has enough talent to stop them.

Lakers first half team total over 61.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)
There's a very sound reason why the Lakers, who were previously not seen as an elite, are assertive home favorites against the Jazz on Monday: Luka Doncic. The NBA universe is captivated to see the duo of Doncic and LeBron James, an old-school plus new-school pairing that might be clunky at times. Both Doncic and James are superstars, adept at being the center of their team's attention. While this could bring turmoil eventually, so far it's only brought excitement and positive results. Since acquiring Luka, the Lakers won four straight and averaged 67 points per game in the first half in the same span. Utah has one of the worst defenses in the NBA; don't overthink this.

LeBron James 1st quarter over 6.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)
The Western Conference Player of the Week, LeBron James has been on an absolute tear — averaging a ridiculous 31.2 points per game at a 56% clip over his past five contests. In the first quarter he's done the most damage, averaging 10.8 in the same span. Only the NBA's best (Anthony Davis, SGA, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Maxey and Nikola Jokic) have scored more. Since learning about the Luka trade, LeBron has been in a flow-state, clean in his decision-making and even posting a sensational 52.4% shooting percentage from beyond the arc. We expect "the King" to remind Luka who's team it is, one more time, which means another grandiose first quarter is likely incoming.

Nuggets -9.5 (-105 at BetOnline)
The Portland Trailblazers have been playing better basketball lately (4th in net rating the past two weeks), but we're afraid they might be running into a buzzsaw on Monday. Although we're hesitant, it appears Denver finally found their groove. Quietly, the Nuggets have accrued a 15-4 record since January 8th, a month of dominance. Over that span they're the NBA's best offense, and only the Thunder have a higher overall net rating. At home, they rate even higher. Monday is the start of a home-doubleheader against the Blazers, then Denver finishes their pre-All-Star Break schedule versus Charlotte. There's nothing but fun ahead for Jokic and company, and we expect the scoreboard to show it.

Tennis

Coco Gauff vs. Marta Kostyuk under 19.5 games (-105 at DraftKings)
Historically, Coco Gauff and Marta Kostyuk are known for very competitive battles. In their first three matches, they went into the third set — and only in Wuhan last October did that change. Gauff got a quick 6-4, 6-1 win over the Ukrainian in that tournament, a result that we project will mirror Tuesday's early clash. Kostyuk rose in 2024 thanks to some very impressive tennis earlier in the year, but lately she's on a downward turn. Kostyuk is just 4-4 since Wuhan, with perplexing losses against lesser competition like Ashlyn Krueger and Yue Yuan. Meanwhile, Gauff is coming off a WTA Finals tournament win in November and a solid run in Melbourne. In top form, we expect her to make quick work of Kostyuk.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova under 19.5 games (-104 at Bookmaker)
Ekaterina Alexandrova is not a player to overlook. Ranked 26th in the world and off a Linz Open victory (she knocked off the dynamic Dayana Yastremska in the final), the 30-year-old moved with grace, looked powerful, and was never rattled. She better hope she brings all that and more in this match. Aryna Sabalenka is coming off a disappointing end at the Australian Open, losing to Madison Keys in the final. Before that, the bruising Belarusian had won 10 straight matches, with only two needing a third set. Needless to say, the world's #1 will not be in a good mood to start her journey at Doha. Alexandrova has performed well recently, but sports are cruel, and we see Sabalenka breaking the Russian early and often. 

Warriors vs. Bucks: Game 2 for Jimmy Butler Has a Total of 231.5 Points

Steph Curry is coming off a 24-point 3rd quarter on Saturday, while yesterday the Bucks won a shootout against the 76ers 135-127 behind Damian Lillard’s 43 points. Milwaukee is 2-6-1 against the spread with no rest, but Golden State is only 6-8-1 with a rest advantage. Only one meeting in the past six has been decided by single digits, with each team winning three of those six matchups.

• Spread: Warriors -6 (-108), Bucks +6 (-112)

  • GS 26-26-0, MIL 23-28-1

  • 74% of the money and 68% of the bets are with the Bucks

• Moneyline: Warriors -225, Bucks +188

  • GS 26-26, MIL 29-23

• Total (231.5): Over/Under -110

  • GS 26-26, MIL 26-26

Warriors (26-26, 11-13 Away) vs. Bucks (28-23, 17-8 Home)
8pm on NBA TV

Top 5 Insights:

• The Bucks are 5-15 against the spread in their past 20 games vs. top-10 scoring defenses

• The over hit in 4 of the past 6 Milwaukee games vs. top-10 scoring defenses

• Bobby Portis dished out at least 3 assists in each of his past 5 games (4.4 average)

• Brook Lopez has at least 2 blocks in 6 straight home games (2.7 average)

• Draymond Green has stayed under 5.5 rebounds in 7 straight road games (3.3 average)

NCAAM: UNC’s Davis Collecting P+R+A, Unders in Houston Home Games

North Carolina (14-10, 7-5 ACC) vs. Clemson (19-5, 11-2 ACC)

• UNC’s Ian Jackson recorded at least 1 assist in 11 of his past 12 games (1.4 average)

• The Tar Heels’ RJ Davis collected at least 21.5 points + rebounds + assists in 5 of his past 6 games (24.7 average)

Baylor (15-8, 7-5 Big 12) vs. No. 5 Houston (19-4, 11-1 Big 12)

• The under hit in 11 of the past 15 Houston home games

• The Cougars are 10-4 against the spread in their past 14 home games

Charlotte (9-15, 2-9 American) vs. Florida Atlantic (13-10, 6-4 American)

• FAU is 9-2 in their past 11 games as the favorite, and the under hit in 5 of the past 7 games where they were the favorite

• Charlotte is 2-4 against the spread over their past 6 road games

Fresno State (5-19, 1-12 Mountain West) vs. Nevada (13-10, 5-7 Mountain West)

• The over hit in 6 of the past 7 Fresno State road games

• The Bulldogs are 1-4 against the spread in their past 5 road games

No. 5 Houston’s Leading Scorer L.J. Cryer is Averaging 18 Points Over Past 4 Games

Name: L.J. Cryer
Team: No. 5 Houston Cougars
Position: Guard 
Today’s Matchup: vs. Baylor (15-8, 7-5 Big 12)
Season Stats: 14.3 points, 2.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 39.0% FG%

Past 5 Games

• @ Colorado: 15 points on 6-17 shooting, 6 rebounds, 1 assist

• vs. Oklahoma State: 18 points on 6-15 shooting, 3 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 steals

• vs. No. 22 Texas Tech: 22 points on 7-14 shooting, 4 rebounds, 2 assists

• @ West Virginia: 17 points on 6-12 shooting, 3 rebounds, 3 assists

• @ No. 12 Kansas: 9 points on 2-12 shooting, 3 rebounds, 3 assists

Head-to-Head

• Cryer played a season-high 43 minutes in Houston’s overtime win at Baylor last season. He scored 15 points on 3-8 shooting (all but one shot was from three), and was 6-6 from the line. He added two rebounds, two assists and a steal.

In the News 

• Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts: “I’m the same kid that came to a national championship and lost, went back and got benched and had to transfer…”

• Philadelphia said all the Kansas City three-peat talk motivated them.

• Saquon Barkley rushed for the most yards in NFL history when you include the playoffs: 2,476.

• The Lakers sent Mark Williams back to Charlotte after he failed a physical and LA canceled the trade (the Lakers get Dalton Knecht, Cam Reddish and their picks back).

• The 4 Nations Face-Off will be the first time NHL players participate in an international competition in nearly nine years.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: North Carolina vs. Clemson in men’s college basketball on ESPN

• 8pm: Warriors vs. Bucks on NBA TV

• 10:30pm: Jazz vs. Lakers on ESPN

Photo of the Day