Doncic, Fox Combo Totals Could Be Too High, Watch Home Underdog Villanova (+2.5)

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: The 4 Nations Face-Off begins

• Top 10 Bets: Celtics give up fewest assists per game to opposing PGs (7.33)

• Game of the Day: De'Aaron Fox has at least 1 steal in 5 straight road games

• Betting Trends: SJU’s Richmond averaged 7.6 rebounds in past 5 games

• Player to Watch: Sabonis combined for 45 P+R+A on Saturday vs. Pelicans (rematch tonight)

• Overtime: Another three-peat is up for grabs this weekend

Hockey’s 4 Nations Face-Off starts tonight with Canada taking on Sweden in Montreal. A reminder: This NHL All Star Game replacement features four teams (the U.S. and Finland play tomorrow) using only NHL players. The teams will play in a round-robin format, and the top-two will make it to the February 20th final in Boston. Here’s where FanDuel has the competition:

• Round Robin Winner: Canada (+115), USA (+160), Sweden (+470), Finland (+1100)

• Most Tournament Points: Connor McDavid (+700), Nathan MacKinnon (+900), Sam Reinhart (+1300), Auston Matthews (+1400)

• Canada vs. Sweden

  • Spread: Canada -1.5 (+104), Sweden +1.5 (-128)

  • Moneyline: Canada -250, Sweden +198

  • Total (6.5): Over +110, Under -134

• U.S. vs. Finland

  • Spread: U.S. -1.5 (-122), Finland +1.5 (+100)

  • Moneyline: U.S. -335, Finland +265

  • Total (5.5): Over -120, Under -102

In the newsletter, Jack has today’s top 10 bets to watch across the NBA, college basketball and golf. We also have a full analysis of the Spurs vs. Celtics matchup, betting trends for all five men’s college basketball games featuring ranked teams, and an in-depth look at Domantas Sabonis vs. the Pelicans.

— Abe Rakov

Maxey Scored 30+ in Past 6 Games with Embiid Out, So Watch the Injury Report Today

By Jack Dougherty

Paolo Banchero under 1.5 threes (+100 at DraftKings)
This is a great time to fade Banchero on a three-point prop at a solid price. The Magic forward is coming off a 4-9 performance from downtown, but it came against a Hawks defense that ranks 26th in the NBA in opponent made threes per game (14.2). Before that, Banchero made just two of his previous 26 three-point attempts, going under this line in six straight games. 

Tyrese Maxey over 29.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)
Just as this is a great sell-high spot on Banchero, it’s a buy-low spot on Maxey in the points department. Maxey is coming off his worst game of the season (and maybe his career) in which he scored only five points on 1-9 shooting in 34 minutes. He likely doesn’t have to worry about Joel Embiid getting his on Wednesday night, though, and he’s scored 30+ in six straight games without Embiid (and 10 of his past 15). 

De’Aaron Fox under 29.5 points + assists (-113 at FanDuel)
Fox is off to a hot start with his new team, but this number is too high. He’s cleared this line in just two of his four games since being traded to the Spurs, and they came against the Hawks and Wizards — two of the worst teams in the NBA at defending point guards. The Celtics are a bit different, as they give up the fewest assists per game to opposing PGs (7.33) and rank second in the league in opponent effective field-goal percentage.

Luka Doncic under 39.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120 at FanDuel)
It’s not going to click right away for Doncic and the Lakers. In his first start with his new team, Doncic put up just 14 points on 5-14 shooting, five rebounds and four assists in 24 minutes. LeBron James is still operating as the alpha for this offense, and Doncic will take some time to take over that role. This line is too high considering we don’t know what Doncic’s workload will look like coming off a lengthy injury. 

NCAAM

Villanova +2.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
This is a good spot to fade St. John’s coming off its biggest win of the season on the road against UConn. The Johnnies are one of the best defensive teams in the country, but they’ve been a bit lucky to go 12-1 in the Big East. Most notably, St. John’s opponents are shooting just 66.7% from the free-throw line, which is the seventh-worst mark in the country. Well, Villanova ranks fifth in free-throw percentage (80.9%), so the Red Storm won’t be bailed out in this matchup. 

Golf - Genesis Invitational

Ludvig Aberg top-10 finish (+230 at FanDuel)
Aberg’s price has dipped this week after he shot 75-74-79 in the final three rounds of the Farmers Insurance Open and withdrew from the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am due to an illness. Let’s not forget, though, he took the first-round lead by two shots at Torrey Pines before coming down with the flu. Now fully healthy, Aberg returns to Torry Pines with revenge on his mind and his game hopefully back to where it was when he finished T5 at The Sentry to kick off the season.

Tournament matchup: Rory McIlroy > Scottie Scheffler (+125 at DraftKings)
We get why Scheffler is favored in this matchup, but it shouldn’t be this lopsided in terms of price. All McIlroy did in his first PGA Tour start of the season was win at Pebble Beach, gain strokes in all four major categories and lead the field in strokes gained on approach. Scheffler’s ball-striking has been fine since returning from a hand injury, but his short game is still a bit rusty after a month off. Torrey Pines will play long and soft this week with the rain in San Diego, and carry distance is the only major advantage McIlroy has over Scheffler. 

Taylor Pendrith top-20 finish (+130 at FanDuel)
Pendrith is sneakily playing some of the best golf on the PGA Tour to start the season. The Canadian finished T13 at The Sentry, T7 at the Famers Insurance Open and T9 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He ranks third in strokes gained from off the tee, fifth in total driving and second in greens in regulation percentage. Pendrith has also finished T16 or better in three of his past four starts at Torrey Pines. 

Jake Knapp top-40 finish (+115 at DraftKings)
Driving distance will be paramount this week on one of the longest golf courses on the PGA Tour, and it will play even longer with the soft conditions and thick rough. That’s good news for Knapp, who ranks 11th on Tour this season in club head speed. Knapp finished T3 at Torrey Pines last year and T32 a few weeks ago despite losing strokes on approach and off the tee. Finishing 40th or better in a 72-man field at a course that suits him well is more than reasonable. 

Tournament matchup: Jason Day > Tony Finau (-105 at FanDuel)
Day shouldn’t be the underdog in this matchup. For one, he’s playing much better golf with three top-13 finishes in his past five worldwide starts. The Australian also loves Torrey Pines, as he has two wins and seven top-10 finishes in his past 12 trips to the Farmers Insurance Open. Finau, meanwhile, has missed the cut in two of his four starts this season. The driver is normally a weapon for Finau, but he ranks 130th on Tour this season in total driving and 119th in strokes gained from off the tee.

Spurs vs. Celtics: Paul’s Road Assists, Tatum’s Rebounds vs. Bottom-10 Rebounding Teams

The Spurs have faded a bit since their trip to Paris, while the Celtics have won 6 of 7. With the recent struggles, San Antonio finds itself three games back of the final play-in spot in the West (Boston remains fairly comfortably the No. 2 seed in the East).

• Spread: Celtics -8.5 (-114), Spurs +8.5 (-106)

  • BOS 22-31-1, SA 24-27-0

  • 65% of the money and 55% of the bets are with the Celtics

• Moneyline: Celtics -360, Spurs +290

  • BOS 38-16, SA 23-28

• Total (233.5): Over/Under -110

  • BOS 25-29, SA 29-22

Spurs (23-28, 9-15 Away) vs. Celtics (38-16, 16-10 Home)
7pm on ESPN

Top 5 Insights:

• Jayson Tatum went over 7.5 rebounds in 18 of his past 19 games vs. bottom-10 defenses for rebounds allowed (10.4 average)

• De'Aaron Fox collected at least one steal in 5 straight road games (2.0 average)

• Kristaps Porziņģis made 2+ blocks in 5 games in a row (3.0 average)

• Harrison Barnes grabbed at least 4 rebounds in 7 straight road games (5.3 average)

• Chris Paul went over 6.5 assists in 10 of his past 11 road games (8.9 average)

NCAAM: OU’s Miles’s Road Assist Streak, Duke’s Knueppel Racking Up P+R+A

No. 9 St. John's (21-3, 12-1 Big East) vs. Villanova (14-10, 7-6 Big East)

• SJU’s Kadary Richmond grabbed 6+ rebounds in 5 straight games (7.6 average)

• Villanova’s Eric Dixon scored at least 22 points in 8 of his past 9 home games (24.9 average)

No. 19 Ole Miss (18-6, 7-4 SEC) vs. South Carolina (10-13, 0-10 SEC)

• Ole Miss’s Sean Pedulla dished out over 2.5 assists in 16 straight road games (5.2 average)

• USC’s Collin Murray-Boyles stayed under 2.5 turnovers in 7 straight home games (1.9 average)

California (12-12m 5-8 ACC) vs. No. 3 Duke (20-3, 12-1 ACC)

• Duke’s Kon Knueppel combined for 20.5 points + rebounds + assists in 5 straight home games (26.0 average)

• Cal’s Andrej Stojakovic made 1+ steal in 5 straight road games (1.6 average)

Arizona State (12-11, 3-9 Big 12) No. 12 Texas Tech (18-5, 9-3 Big 12)

• Texas Tech’s Elijah Hawkins made 6+ assists in 4 of his past 5 home games (7.4 average)

• The Sun Devils’ Basheer Jihad went over 5.5 rebounds in 12 of his past 14 road games (7.4 average)

Oklahoma (16-7, 3-7 SEC) vs. No. 21 Missouri (17-6, 6-4 SEC)

• Mizzou’s Tamar Bates made at least 2 three pointers in 6 home games in a row (2.5 average)

• Oklahoma’s Duke Miles made 2+ assists in 14 straight road games (3.1 average)

Sabonis Scored 27 Against New Orleans on Saturday and Tonight’s Rematch Total is 19.5

Name: Domantas Sabonis
Team: Sacramento Kings
Position: PF
Today’s Matchup: @ Pelicans
Season Stats: 20.4 points, 14.3 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 59.5% FG

Past 5 Games

• @ Dallas: 16 points (7-10 FG), 15 rebounds, 8 assists

• vs. New Orleans: 27 points (10-18 FG), 16 rebounds, 2 assists

• @ Portland: 10 points (2-6 FG), 14 rebounds, 4 assists

• vs. Orlando: 21 points (8-10 FG), 13 rebounds, 3 assists

• @ Minnesota: 14 points (5-15 FG), 11 rebounds, 3 assists

Head-to-Head

• Sabonis just faced off against the Pelicans on Saturday, combining for 45 points + rebounds + assists. He scored 32 points in their only other matchup this year, and had 18, 17, 26, 23 and 10 points in the five matchups before that. He’s averaged 12.2 rebounds per game against New Orleans across their past 10 contests, going over 10 boards in all but one.

Pontential Bets

• Score 20+ points: -105

  • Total is 19.5: Over -111/Under -115

• Record 14+ rebounds: -160

  • Total is 14.5: Over/Under -113

• 40.5 P+R+A: Over/Under -113

In the News 

• Barkley’s record-breaking season with the Eagles could cause teams to re-value running backs.

• The Hornets might challenge the Lakers’ cancellation of the Mark Williams trade.

• Eagles No. 1, Titans No. 32 in Yahoo Sports’ first power rankings for the next NFL season.

• The Trump Administration weighed in on NIL payments.

• Mac McClung is looking for a three-peat of his own…in the NBA’s dunk contest.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 6pm: No. 9 St. John’s vs. Villanova for men’s college basketball on FS1

• 7pm: Spurs vs. Celtics on ESPN (followed by Warriors vs. Mavericks at 9:30pm)

• 8pm: Canada vs. Sweden in hockey’s 4 Nations Face-Off on TNT

Photo of the Day