NBA Rising Stars Analysis + Friday Night Men's College Basketball

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: NBA All Star Weekend

• Top Bets: UCLA is 5-2 to the over on the road

• Game of the Day: Liga MX leaders Club América have a +12 goal differential

• Betting Trends: Kobe Johnson has 1+ steals in 11 of his past 12 games

• Player to Watch: Yale guard dropped 32 points last time out

• Overtime: Predictions for next season in the NFL

The NBA’s All Star weekend is here, with the league descending on the San Fransisco Bay area for the next three days. Here’s the schedule for the NBA-obsessed fans out there:

• Friday

  • 12:30pm: Rising Stars practice on NBA TV

  • 7pm: All-Star Celebrity game on ESPN

  • 9pm: Rising Stars four-team tournament on TNT

• Saturday

  • 2pm: All Star practice on NBA TV

  • 5pm: NBA HBCU Classic (Morehouse vs. Tuskegee) on NBA TV

  • 8pm: All-Star Saturday Night (skills challenge, 3-point content, dunk contest) on TNT

• Sunday

  • 8pm: NBA All Star Game on TNT (3 games)

In the newsletter, Craig has today’s top bets to watch across men’s college basketball, soccer and the NBA. We also have a rundown of Club América vs. Necaxa in Liga MX, betting trends for five men’s college basketball games, and an in-depth look at the Yale senior guard who makes the fifth-most 3s per game in the nation.

— Abe Rakov

UCLA (-1.5) Has Struggled with Long Road Trips in First Big Ten Season

By Craig Williams

Indiana +1.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
We’re not ready to back the Hoosiers outright even after they snapped their five-game losing skid. They’re 11-3 straight up and 9-5 against the spread at home. They lost to Michigan and Maryland in their past two home contests, but covered as underdogs. UCLA has struggled on the road with a 3-4 mark, both straight up and against the spread. They have struggled in particular when making long road trips — they won at USC and at Washington but lost at Maryland, Rutgers and Illinois over their past 10. They finished 2-3 against the spread across those five contests.

UCLA vs. Indiana over 139.5 points (-115 at BetMGM)
UCLA enters tonight’s matchup with a top-25 defensive rating, but they have been more forgiving on the road. They’re 4-1 to the over across their past five road games, and 3-0 to the over across that span when they’ve left the Pacific time zone. The Bruins are 5-2 to the over on the road overall, thanks in large part to a more porous defense away from Pauley Pavilion. It comes as no shock that the Hoosiers have performed better offensively at home, and it won’t be a surprise to see the Bruins struggle defensively in another challenging road test.

Soccer

Brighton vs. Chelsea draw (+120 at bet365)
Chelsea is coming off of an FA Cup loss to Brighton at Brighton, but we’re looking for a more favorable result for the guests this time around. Chelsea is fourth in the Premier League table and is 6-3-3 on the road. Comparatively, Brighton has struggled to protect their home pitch, entering today’s match with a 3-6-2 record at American Express Stadium. We’re still acknowledging the challenge of winning on the road in the Premier League, Chelsea’s 21 road points notwithstanding. The Blues have not earned three points on the road since December 8 at Tottenham. 

Brighton vs. Chelsea both teams to score (-225 at DraftKings)
Chelsea ranks fifth in the Premier League in goals for, so we’re backing their attacking firepower in this spot. They were last shut out on December 30th at Ipswich Town, and Premier League opponents have kept a clean sheet against them only three times this season. Brighton, meanwhile, has scored 11 goals over their past six matches despite being shut out twice over that span. Chelsea’s Cole Palmer and Christopher Nkunku have combined for 35 goals-plus-assists across all competitions.

Cole Palmer to score or assist (-115 at FanDuel)
Palmer leads Chelsea with 14 goals and ranks second with six assists. Digging a bit deeper, he leads the club with 85 shots and 5.88 shot-creating actions per match. Palmer last scored on January 14th and has gone four matches without netting or assisting a goal. Chelsea had five full days between last week’s FA Cup loss to Brighton and today’s Premier League rematch. The break between fixtures will have theoretically provided Palmer — plus his Chelsea teammates — the opportunity to iron out some wrinkles and position himself to impact the score sheet, either as the finisher or the assister.

NBA All Star Weekend

Team Mitch Richmond -4.5 vs. Team Jeremy Lin (-110 at FanDuel)
It’s challenging to handicap All Star competitions, and that goes for the Rising Stars showcase taking place tonight. We’re leaning toward Team Mitch Richmond, nonetheless. There are a couple of reasons backing our position. Number one is Amen Thompson, the ascending second-year wing from the Houston Rockets. He’s averaging 17.2 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 5.4 assists in 2025, in addition to 2.1 steals and 1.5 blocks. It’s no stretch to suggest he’ll be the best player participating in the Rising Stars tournament. Secondly, Team Richmond will benefit from a degree of continuity that edges their opponents. Amen is joined by his twin, Ausar Thompson; and the roster features Bub Carrington and Bilal Coulibaly, who play together on the Wizards.

Team Mitch Richmond outright winner (+160 at FanDuel)
We’re looking for Team Mitch Richmond to win its opening round matchup vs. Team Jeremy Lin, and its subsequent matchup in the final. Doing so would earn them a trip to Sunday’s All-Star bracket. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, our attention is focused on the Rockets’ Amen Thompson, who has taken off since being inserted into the starting lineup on a full-time basis. His ability to affect the game in a number of ways is arguably the most advanced of any player taking the court tonight. The roster’s continuity relative to the others is worth mentioning again. It’s the type of attribute that can set one team apart from its peers in this type of event.

Futures

Spurs to make the West Play-In Tournament (+150 at FanDuel)
The Spurs have struggled, even in the wake of adding dynamic point guard De’Aaron Fox at the trade deadline. But integrating into a brand new team in the midst of a six-game road trip is quite a tall task. Once the Spurs are able to log some proper practices, they’ll be better situated on both the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. They rank 17th in offensive rating and 20th in defensive rating over their past six games, each of which have come on the road. They’re currently ranked 12th in the West and are three games out of the 10th seed and final Play-In spot. They need to leapfrog a couple of teams, but they’re two games back of the reeling Phoenix Suns; three back of the undersized and inconsistent Golden State Warriors; and 4.5 back of the woefully injured Dallas Mavericks.

Spurs to select Cooper Flagg in 2025 NBA Draft (+2000 at FanDuel)
For starters, we’re going to acknowledge that this is undoubtedly a long-shot bet. The Spurs own the Atlanta Hawks’ unprotected first-round pick in 2025, not to mention their own first-round pick which will fall in the lottery if they fail to make the playoffs. The potential for them to get two bites at the apple adds intrigue to their odds to win the lottery, but the real key will be what individual bettors anticipate from the Hawks, who have stumbled of late. They currently reside in the ninth seed, with a 5.5-game cushion over the Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets, who are tied for 11th in the East. Finally, it’s worth remembering that the NBA smoothed out its lottery odds, giving teams like the Spurs, in theory, a more robust shot at landing the top pick in what would go down as an absolute coup for a team that already won the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes.

Club America vs. Necaxa: Mexico City Club Has Conceded Just 3 Goals in First 6 Matches

We’re headed to Mexico City today for a late-night Liga MX match between Club América and Necaxa.

• Moneyline: Club América -185, Draw +330, Necaxa +450

• Both Teams to Score: Yes -146, No +114

• Total (2.5): Over -160, Under +114

Club América (5-1-0) vs. Necaxa (3-0-3)
10pm

Top Scorers

• 6 — Diber Cambindo (Necaxa)

• 4 — Víctor Dávila (América)

• 3 — Alejandro Zendejas (América)

• 2 — Érick Sánchez (América), Brian Rodriguez (América), José Paradela (Necaxa)

NCAAM: Ballo Averaging 25 P+R Over Past 12, Ohio’s Struggles ATS on the Road

UCLA (18-7, 9-5 Big Ten) vs. Indiana (15-10, 6-8 Big Ten)

• UCLA’s Dylan Andrews dished out at least 3 assists in 7 of his past 8 games (4.4 average)

• IU’s Oumar Ballo combined for over 20.0 points + rebounds in 10 of his past 12 games (25.0 average)

Columbia (12-8, 1-6 Ivy) vs. Dartmouth (10-10, 4-3 Ivy)

• Columbia is 1-4 against the spread in their past 5 road games, and the over hit in 7 of the Lions’ past 10 on the road

• Dartmouth’s Brandon Mitchell-Day has gone over 24.5 points + rebounds + assists in 6 of his past 7 home games (28.4 average)

Saint Louis (14-11, 7-5 A-10) vs. Loyola Chicago (15-9, 6-5 A-10)

• SLU’s Kobe Johnson has at least 1 steal in 11 of his past 12 games (1.2 average)

• Loyola Chicago’s Des Watson made 2+ three pointers in 9 of his past 10 home games (2.6 average)

Ohio (13-11, 7-4 MAC) vs. Kent State (16-8, 6-5 MAC)

• Ohio is 2-8 against the spread in its past 10 road games

• The over hit in 4 of the past 5 Ohio road games

Nevada (14-10, 6-7 Mountain West) vs. San José State (12-14, 5-9 Mountain West)

• Nevada’s Nick Davidson scored at least 18 points in his past 5 road games (20.0 average)

• SJSU’s Robert Vaihola has gone over 5.5 rebounds in 7 of his past 8 games (7.0 average)

Yale Star is Fifth in the Country with 3.5 Threes per Game

Name: John Poulakidas
Team: Yale
Position: Guard
Today’s Matchup: vs. Penn
Season Stats: 20.5 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists

Past 5 Games

• @ Cornell: 32 points (66.7% FG), 3 rebounds, 2 assists

• @ Penn: 21 points (50.0% FG), 1 rebound, 2 assists

• @ Princeton: 23 points (57.1% FG), 3 rebounds

• vs. Harvard: 15 points (41.7% FG), 6 rebounds, 3 assists

• vs. Dartmouth: 12 points (30.8% FG), 3 rebounds

Head-to-Head

• Poulakidas, who is tied for fifth in the nation wide 3.5 threes made per game, scored 21 points when Yale beat Penn earlier this month. Last season he scored 11 in the first matchup and 17 in the second. The 6-foot-6 senior has scored 15+ in 15 of 17 games this season.

In the News 

• The Jets will cut ties with Aaron Rodgers.

• Check out ESPN’s early predictions for the next NFL season.

• New Saints head coach Kellen Moore didn’t commit to QB Derek Carr.

• The NHL is testing new rules at the 4 Nations Face-Off.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: Brighton vs. Chelsea on USA

• 7pm: Saint Louis vs. Loyola Chicago in men’s college basketball on ESPN2

• 7:30pm: NASCAR Truck Series at Daytona on FS1

• 8pm: UCLA vs. Indiana on FOX

• 9pm: NBA Rising Stars mini-tournament on TNT

Photo of the Day