Duke Averages 8 More Points Than Tonight's Total + NBA Playoff Odds

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Where NBA odds stand at the All Star break

• Top 10 Bets: UVA is outside the top-100 in opponent two-point rate

• Game of the Day: 70% of spread money is with road underdogs Arizona

• Player to Watch: Team USA’s Jake Guentzel

• Overtime: Belichick is on the recruiting trail for UNC

The NBA All Star Game’s new format got mixed reviews, as players seemed to care more but were annoyed by the extended breaks. The league is off until Thursday — except for the Lakers and Hornets, who play on Wednesday night in a game that had to be rescheduled because of the devastating fires in Los Angeles. As we head to the second half of the season, here’s where FanDuel has division titles and the playoffs:

• Atlantic Division: Celtics -1100, Knicks +850

• Southeast Division: Magic -105, Head +155, Hawks +500

• Pacific Division: Lakers -240, Clippers +270, Warriors +1300

• Southwest Division: Grizzlies -210, Rockets +175

• Eastern Conference: Celtics -125, Cavaliers +350, Knicks +550, Bucks +1100, Pacers +3600

• Western Conference: Thunder -110, Nuggets +600, Lakers +900, Grizzlies +1200, Clippers +1500

• NBA Champion: Celtics +195, Thunder +220, Cavaliers +850, Knicks +1300, Nuggets +1400, Lakers +1800

In the newsletter, Chris has today’s top 10 bets to watch across college basketball and tennis. We also have a full analysis of No. 13 Arizona vs. Baylor and an in-depth look at Team USA’s Jake Guentzel against Sweden.

— Abe Rakov

Flagg and No. 3 Duke Face UVA’s Top 25-Ranked Defense (Which Isn’t as Good as Usual)

By Chris Farley

Lehigh vs. Bucknell over 139.5 points (-105 at DraftKings and Bookmaker)
Two squads that scored just 130 points (with overtime!) in their first battle are clashing for the second time in 2025. Oddsmakers listed the number 10 points over where the total ended in game one, for good reason. Both teams are challenged offensively (neither are in the top 200 programs), but their negative point-differentials (Lehigh is -15, Bucknell -33) are mostly because of egregious defense. Lehigh's strength of schedule (adjusted for opponent offensive rating) is 323rd, 318th in Bucknell's case, and they combine for 145 points allowed per contest. Game one was a terrible shooting night for both teams (Bucknell shot 40%, Lehigh 33%). Now the market sees more scoring in the rematch. We agree.

McNeese -7.5 (+100 at Caesars)
The market and its constituents are giving a ton of respect to Southeastern Louisiana. Kings of the Southland Conference, in their first matchup the McNeese Cowboys took the Lions to the woodshed, controlling the game from start to finish in a 79-51 rout. That was at the end of December. Fast track 47 days and McNeese has only lost one game, still sitting in 1st place in Southland, while the Lions are ranked 236th on KenPom and coming off a nail-biting overtime win against rival Nicholls just two days ago. Contrarily, the Cowboys' well-balanced program has them ranked 87th on KenPom, with an extremely poor luck rating (293rd). We don't think the Cowboys are a fluke. Hand us the chalk.

New Orleans +9 (-105 at Bookmaker)
Nicholls is coming off a devastating overtime loss to rival Southeastern Louisiana, a game where they held a 12-point lead into the second half, until they didn't. In any case, a demoralizing road loss doesn't make a quick two day trip to the bayou any easier, and there awaits the Privateers, a program with nothing to lose. New Orleans is just 2-13 in their conference and 4-22 overall, one of the lousiest teams in the nation. On defense they rank 343rd. Still, a barrage of statistics is not what creates a line or a good wager; that's information everyone knows about. Considering the tough back to back road spot for Nicholls, New Orleans is a dangerous underdog, and the market knows it. 

Duke over 72.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
KenPom ranks Virginia's strength of schedule at 69th overall, a conservative estimate considering the top-tier talent that occupies the ACC year after year. In any case, Virginia allows just 65 points per game, good for a top-25 ranking, but they're going to battle a different beast on Monday. According to KenPom and Haslametrics, only two other outfits rank higher on offense than Duke, a juggernaut with a bonified, unstoppable force in star forward, Cooper Flagg. The Cavaliers' defense has a rich history, but this season they're outside the top-100 in opponent two-point rate and outside the top-200 in opponent three point rate. That's a major concern against this enemy offense, even at home.

Delaware State +9 (-110 consensus)
Just over one month ago, Delaware State capitulated 64-73 at home in their last battle versus Norfolk State, a contest where the visitor did almost everything better than the host. But the box-score also showed that Delaware State, which is second behind Norfolk in the Mid-Eastern Atlantic, outscored and nearly caught up to their rival in the second half. The Hornets are on a five-game winning streak entering Monday, averaging an impressive 91.4 points per game in that span. These programs are more similar than they are disparate, and we like the road pooch to prove ornery in a game that matters greatly in their shared conference.

Texas Southern vs. Southern over 141 points (-110 consensus)
Southern will host its rival, Texas Southern, in a pivotal Southwestern Atlantic showdown. Haslametrics ranks Southern 257th on offense, a few decades ahead of Tigers, who stand at a lowly 318th. But even more importantly, both programs like to run fast (both are in the top-70 highest tempos in the country), and we worry about that for the defenses. KenPom ranks the Texas Southern's defense respectably at 190th, but they've only faced the 312th best strength of schedule. On the other side, since their first victory against the Tigers, Southern has been unstoppable at home: 7-0 and averaging a healthy 78 points per game. We like the home-team Jaguars to ignite scoring nice and early.

Baylor -1 (-105 at Bovada)
The 13th-ranked Arizona Wildcats travel to Foster Pavilion to take on Baylor on Monday, a rematch after Arizona topped their rivals by 11 at home not long ago. Game one was a shooting display for both programs. The Bears' defense just didn't hold up early, letting the Wildcats run up a large lead that was ultimately too much to overcome. Arizona is limping into tonight, having lost their past two games (at Kansas State, vs. Houston) and is now faced with a tough travel spot just two days later. Baylor's star guard VJ Edgecombe adds to a longer injury report for Baylor, but tonight's home team has shown resilience while their prey is showing signs of weakness lately; time to pounce!

ATP Tennis: Rio de Janeiro

Nicholas Jarry 2-0 (+140 at DraftKings)
Argentina native Juan Manuel Cerundolo, the brother of higher-ranked Francisco Cerundolo, will start his tour in Rio de Janeiro against one of the tournament's best — although Jarry has been far from his top form so far this season. Coming off three straight losses, Jarry, who's dropped to 47th in the world, needs to find his form after a respectable quarterfinal finish at the Australian Open over a month ago. Cerundolo is a 23-year old who's ranked just 127th in the world, clearly unable to earn victories against the true elite, as evidenced by his presence on smaller circuits and quick out against unranked veteran Yosuke Watanuki at Melbourne. This is Jarry's chance to get-right.

Chun Hsin Tseng vs. Alejandro Tabilo over 21.5 games (-126 at Fanduel)
Qualifier Hsin Tseng can make this a long battle, especially if we keep seeing the same regressed version of Tabilo. The Chilean is ranked 28th in the world and the #1 seed in Rio de Janeiro, but you wouldn't know any of that based on recent merit. He has yet to win this season, having dropped matches in the first round at the Australian Open, Brisbane International, ASB Classic is Auckland and last week at the Buenos Aires Open. And that was all against unranked competition. If anything, qualifier Hsin Tseng has more momentum entering Monday's clash, and the grinder's last four losses have all far surpassed this total. Expect Tabilo to struggle finding his form, which should delay this match.

Thiago Seyboth Wild moneyline (+116 at Fanduel)
A young Seyboth Wild was no match for Jaume Munar in recent history, having lost four straight qualifiers against the Spaniard, but last year the Brazilian turned the tide in his home country — and we see the same result ultimately occurring on Monday. Both ranked top-70 in the world, this promises to be a great battle, but Seyboth Wild has the edge on clay, a surface that has elevated his career since 2023 (he went 56-16 on clay courts that year). Entering Rio de Janeiro with a stellar 59% win percentage on clay, Seyboth Wild takes on a veteran who's motivated to reach the top-50, but his win over Munar last year and a raucous home crowd give the Brazilian a clear edge.

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No. 13 Arizona vs. Baylor: Wildcats are Road Underdogs After 2 Consecutive Losses

No. 13 Arizona looked to be in a battle with No. 6 Houston for the Big 12 regular season title, but after two losses in a row (including a 4-point home defeat to the Cougars on Saturday), the Wildcats need a win tonight. Baylor is just 5-5 over its past 10 games, but is favored by a point at home in a game they could really use for tournament seeding.

• Spread: Baylor -1 (-105), Arizona +1 (-115)

  • Baylor 10-14, Arizona 14-11

  • 70% of the money and 71% of the bets are with the Wildcats

• Moneyline: Baylor -111, Arizona -108

• Total (151.5): Over -108, Under -112

  • Baylor 15-9, Arizona 14-11

No. 13 Arizona (17-8, 11-3 Big 12) vs. Baylor (16-9, 8-6 Big 12)
10pm on ESPN

Top 5 Insights:

• The over hit in 4 of the past 6 games where Baylor was the favorite

• Arizona’s Caleb Love went over 8.5 rebounds + assists in 5 straight games (10.6 average)

• Baylor’s Norchad Omier made at least one block in 8 of his past 9 home games (1.4 average)

• The Wildcats’ Jaden Bradley has combined for over 14.5 points + rebounds in 7 of his past 8 road games (18.6 average)

• The Bears’ VJ Edgecombe made 2+ steals in 13 of his past 16 games (2.2 average)

Guentzel Has Scored in Both of Team USA’s 4 Nations Face-Off Games

Name: Jake Guentzel
Team: Team USA / Tampa Bay Lightning
Position: C
Today’s Matchup: vs. Sweden
Season Stats: 3 goals and 1 assist in two 4 Nations Face-Off matchups, 27 goals and 27 assists in 54 games for the Lightning

Past 5 Games

• vs. Canada: 2 goals, 5 shots

• vs. Finland: 1 goal, 1 assist, 4 shots

• @ Montreal: 2 assists, 3 shots

• @ Detroit: 1 shot

• vs. Ottawa: 1 goal, 1 shot

Pontential Bets

• Any time goal scorer: +250

• 2.5 shots on goal: Over +114, Under -148

• 1+ points: -148

In the News 

• NBA players like the idea of a USA vs. the world All Star game.

• A look at how Bill Belichick is adapting to the recruiting trail for UNC.

• Yankees’ Stanton might not be ready for opening day.

• Vanderbilt's Mikayla Blakes scored 55 points yesterday, a DI women's freshman record.

• Aaron Rodgers really wanted to keep playing for the Jets.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 1pm: Canada vs. Finland in 4 Nations Face-Off action on TNT (or Atlanta vs. LA in a TGL matchup on ESPN — there’s TGL action through 9pm on ESPN and ESPN2 today)

• 6pm: No. 13 Duke vs. No. 2 Notre Dame in Women’s College basketball on ESPN

• 8pm: Sweden vs. USA on TNT for the final 4 Nations roundtable game

• 10pm: No. 13 Arizona vs. Baylor in men’s college basketball on ESPN

Photo of the Day