NBA is Back, College Basketball Betting Trends, and Champions League Soccer

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: The NBA is back

• Top Bets: Luka is averaging 15 points on 13.5 field-goal attempts in 2 games with the Lakers

• Game of the Day: Real Madrid vs. Man City in a Champions League knockout match

• Betting Trends: The over hit in 10 of the past 12 Alabama games as the underdog

• Overtime: Ohtani is back on the mound

The NBA is back from the All Star break a day early, with the Lakers taking on the Hornets in a game that was rescheduled due to the devastating fires in Los Angeles. With the second half of the season about to get underway, here’s where DraftKings has the end of season awards:

• MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-500), Nikola Jokic (+350), Giannis Antetokounmpo (+8000)

• Rookie of the Year: Stephon Castle (+140), Kel’el Ware (+230), Zaccharie Risacher (+750), Jaylen Wells (+850)

• Most Improved: Cade Cunningham (-105), Norman Powell (+105), Tyler Herro (+1600)

• 6th Man: Payton Pritchard (-150), De’Andre Hunter (+280), Malik Beasley (+500), Naz Reid (+1300)

• Coach of the Year: Kenny Atkinson (-600), Ime Udoka (+1200), JB Bickerstaff (+1500), Taylor Jenkins (+1800)

In the newsletter, Jack has today’s top bets to watch across the NBA, college basketball and golf. We also have a rundown of of Real Madrid vs. Manchester City in Champions League action and betting trends for six men’s college basketball games.

— Abe Rakov

Reaves Averaged 14.5 Rebounds + Assists in First 2 Games With Doncic (Tonight’s Total is 11.5)

By Jack Dougherty

Luka Doncic under 41.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 at FanDuel)
This is a “show me you can do it first” bet. In two games with the Lakers, Doncic has averaged just 15.0 points on 13.5 field-goal attempts, 4.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists. He’s recorded only 9.0 potential assists and 6.0 rebound chances per game with his new team. Doncic’s conditioning isn’t where it needs to be coming off his injury absence, so he’s slowly ramping up to a full workload while trying to figure out his role in this offense. This number is too high for the experimental stage. 

Austin Reaves over 11.5 rebounds + assists (+100 at FanDuel)
This bet is slightly correlated with the Doncic prop because Reaves has been much more active as a playmaker and rebounder since his debut. The Lakers shooting guard has averaged 14.5 rebounds + assists on 13.5 potential assists and 8.5 rebound chances per game in two contests with Doncic on the court. Oddsmakers aren’t accounting for the fact that Reaves is playing more minutes than Doncic and has a high usage rate with this current roster.

Men’s College Basketball

Missouri moneyline (-110 at FanDuel)
Missouri should be a bigger favorite in this matchup even though Alabama is the better team. The Tigers have been one of the best home teams in college basketball this season, winning 16 of their 17 home games and covering by an average margin of 4.3 points per game. Their only home loss came last week to Texas A&M, when they shot 23.8% from three, but they should have an easier time shooting against this sloppy Crimson Tide defense.

Gonzaga -13 (-110 at Bet365)
Gonzaga has been on a war path since losing to Saint Mary’s earlier this month. The Zags have won their past four games by an average of 25.0 points, and they’re coming off a 52-point dismantling of Pepperdine at home. Washington State has no answer for Graham Ike in the paint, and the Cougars are in a tough schedule spot coming off four road games in their past five contests. 

Kentucky -5.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Kentucky faced off against Vanderbilt three weeks ago, with the Commodores coming out on top, 74-69. The final score doesn’t tell the full story, though, as Kentucky dominated the paint with 43 rebounds to Vandy’s 30. The issue was the Wildcats coughed up 17 turnovers in the game, while the Commodores recorded only five. Both teams average about 10 turnovers per game, so if those numbers even out, Kentucky should be able to pull away with its advantage down low.

SMU moneyline (-126 at FanDuel)
SMU continues to operate as one of the most disrespected teams in the country. The Mustangs have a +16.35 net rating on KenPom compared to Notre Dame’s +7.83 net rating, yet they’re priced as nearly a pick’em. SMU’s high-powered offense has dominated some of the worst defenses in the ACC, putting up 117 points against Miami, 103 against Boston College and 93 against Georgia Tech. Notre Dame doesn’t have the horses to keep up.

Golf: Mexico Open

Kurt Kitayama top-20 finish (+115 at FanDuel)
If you built a golfer in a lab to take down Vidanta Vallarta, he would look a lot like Kitayama. This is a long golf course that demands above-average driving distance and strong long-iron play, and those are the areas in which Kitayama thrives. The American ranked second on the PGA Tour last season in approaches from 150-175 yards, eighth in approaches from 175-200 yards and third in approaches from 200-plus yards. He’s also 11th in driving distance so far this year. Kitayama finished T2 in his lone start at Vidanta Vallarta in 2022.

Stephan Jaeger top-20 finish (+130 at FanDuel)
Speaking of players who fit this course well, Jaeger always loves taking the trip down to Mexico. In three starts at Vidanta Vallarta, the German has finished T15, T18 and T3. Jaeger can be hot and cold with the putter, but he clearly loves these paspalum greens, gaining strokes from putting in two of his three starts here. We’re getting a bit of a discount because Jaeger has finished T40 or worse in three straight starts, so we’ll look at buying the dip in the weakest field of the season.

Niklas Norgaard top-20 finish (+190 at FanDuel)
Norgaard has been a staple on the DP World Tour for the past three years, and he’s ready to show what he can do on the PGA Tour. This is a great spot for him to announce his presence, too, as Norgaard nukes the ball off the tee, can get scorching hot with his long irons and was one of the best putters in Europe in 2024. That’s a lethal combination at Vidanta Vallarta.

Real Madrid vs. Manchester City: Battle of the Titans Taking Place Early this Champions League

The past two Champions League winners are facing off in the knockout round of the competition, with Real Madrid having a goal in hand and the home field advantage against Manchester City.

• Moneyline: Real Madrid (-110), Manchester City (+240), Draw (+320…after 90 minutes plus stoppage time)

• Both Teams to Score: Yes -310, No +225

• Total (3.5): Over/Under -110

Real Madrid (lead 3-2 on aggregate) vs. Manchester City
3pm on Paramount+

Head-to-Head

• Feb 2025: 3-2 Real Madrid

• April 2024: 1-1 (Real Madrid won on penalties)

• April 2024: 3-3

• May 2023: 4-0 Manchester City

• May 2023: 1-1

Potential Bets

• Anytime goalscorer: Mbappé (-105), Endrick (+125), Haaland (+130), Vinícius Júnior (+150)

• Anytime assist: De Bruyne (+200), Modric (+230), Rodrygo (+250), Brahim Diaz (+260), Mbappé (+260), Omar Marmoush (+260)

• Each team 3+ shots on target in each half: +650

NCAAM: Kentucky’s Oweh’s Steals, NC State’s Struggles ATS as the Underdog

Nebraska (17-9, 7-8 Big Ten) vs. Penn State (13-13, 3-12 Big Ten)

• Nebraska’s Juwan Gary scored 16+ points in 5 straight games (19.6 average)

• Penn State’s Yanic Konan Niederhauser has gone over 17.5 points + rebounds in 12 of his past 15 home games (22.4 average)

Vanderbilt (17-8, 5-7 SEC) vs. No. 17 Kentucky (17-8, 6-6 SEC)

• Kentucky’s Otega Oweh made at least 1 steal in 13 of his past 16 games (1.6 average)

• Vandy’s AJ Hoggard has made at least 1 three pointer in 9 straight road games (1.3 average)

NC State (10-15, 3-11 ACC) vs. North Carolina (15-11, 8-6 ACC)

• UNC’s RJ Davis has combined for at least 20 points + assists in 7 of his past 8 games (21.4 average)

• NC State is 3-10 against the spread in their past 13 games as the underdog

Arkansas (15-10, 4-8 SEC) vs. No. 1 Auburn (23-2, 11-1 SEC)

• Auburn’s Chaney Johnson has made at least 1 steal in 9 straight home games (1.3 average)

• The Razorbacks’ Adou Thiero has gone over 1.5 assists in 6 of his past 7 road games (2.6 average)

No. 4 Alabama (21-4, 10-2 SEC) vs. No. 15 Missouri (19-6, 8-4 SEC)

• The over hit in 10 of the past 12 Alabama games when they were the underdog

• Mizzou’s Caleb Grill has made 2+ three pointers in 6 of his past 7 home games (2.6 average)

No. 10 St. John's (22-4, 13-2 Big East) vs, DePaul (11-15, 2-13 Big East)

• The Red Storm’s RJ Luis Jr. has gone over 7.5 rebounds in 4 of his past 5 games (9.6 average)

• DePaul’s CJ Gunn has grabbed over 4.5 rebounds in 5 straight home games (6.2 average)

In the News 

• Ohtani could be getting closer to pitching again.

• SGA reportedly is firing his agent and going to represent himself as a potential $300 million deal approaches.

• Tiger said he had his most embarrassing moment playing golf yesterday.

• Deion Sanders doesn’t make recruiting trips: “I’m too old to be going to somebody’s school, somebody’s house.”

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: Real Madrid vs. Manchester City on Paramount+

• 7pm: NC State vs. UNC on ESPN

• 9pm: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 15 Mizzou on SEC Network (or Arkansas vs. No. 1 Auburn on ESPN)

Photo of the Day