How Wemby's Injury Changed Playoff Odds + 10 NBA Bets to Watch Tonight

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: How Wemby’s injury impacted the betting markets

• Top 10 Bets: Pelicans have the NBA’s worst defensive rating over their past 10

• Game of the Day: The over hit in 12 of the past 17 Michigan games

• Betting Trends: Adebayo has scored 18+ points in 8 straight games

• Player to Watch: Marquette’s Jones has at least 4 rebounds in 3 games in a row

• Overtime: The end of a 49-year Yankees tradition

The biggest news in the sports world yesterday was the Spurs announcing that superstar Victor Wembanyama will be out for the rest of the season because of a blood clot in his right shoulder. Instead of a playoff push, San Antonio will almost certainly be lottery-bound again.

The Spurs are now +570 at FanDuel to make the playoffs, giving the Warriors (-132) and Kings (+340) a little more breathing room. The Suns are still stuck in no man’s land at +370. Wembanyama was a lock to win Defensive Player of the Year, but he’s no longer eligible because he won’t play enough games. Jaren Jackson Jr. is now the slight favorite to win the award at +125, followed by Evan Mobley (+130). Luguentz Dort (+1500) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dyson Daniels (+2000) follow.

In the newsletter, Craig has today’s top-10 NBA bets to watch, and we give you a rundown of No. 14 Michigan State vs. No. 12 Michigan, betting trends for five NBA games, and a profile of No. 16 Marquette’s star guard.

— Abe Rakov

Surging Pistons (Won 4 Straight Before Break) Get Spurs in First Game Without Wemby

By Craig Williams

Cavs -5.5 alternate (-180 at bet365)
The Knicks and Cavs both played in New York City on Thursday night, so there’s no significant rest advantage to be enjoyed by either side. They both entered the All-Star break winning eight of 10 straight-up. The Knicks, however, did so despite having the league’s 20th-ranked defensive over that span. It’s difficult to trust them holding up against a Cavs team that ranks No. 1 in offensive rating on the season and entered the All-Star break on an offensive tear.

Knicks vs. Cavs over 239.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Knicks and Cavs owe much of their success thus far to potent offenses. They rank top two in offensive rating on the season, and both entered the break clicking on all offensive cylinders. Neither team plays particularly fast, but the Cavs and Knicks ranked 12th and 13th, respectively in pace. And if we’re to believe the Knicks’ recent defensive struggles, we’re going to fade them putting up much resistance against a prolific Cavs attack. Instead, they’ll need to try to keep up with the Cavs on the offensive end. And if that results in more possessions, we like this contest to finish as a high-scoring affair. 

Magic +3.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
The Magic endured a trying stretch sans Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, and even struggled upon their returns. They made strides offensively in the five games entering the break in addition to playing stout defense — they ranked No. 6 in defensive rating across those five contests. They’re stingier at home defensively, which is why we think they can play the Grizzlies tough. The Grizzlies have played too well of late for us to pick against them outright, but we’re looking for a respectable performance from the hosts.

Carlton “Bub” Carrington 15+ points + assists (-105 at DraftKings)
Carrington appears to have turned a corner since being reinstated into the starting lineup. It’s only a five-game sample, but he’s averaging over 36 minutes and he’s produced three double-digit game scores over that span — with an average of 16.0 — after producing 11 in the previous 49 games (with a game score average of 6.3). The Wizards ranked ninth in offensive rating across their final five games before the break, and even though we don’t expect them to produce at the same pace for the balance of the season, we won’t be surprised if Carrington and Co. enjoy slightly better offensive production as their young players get more volume.

Pistons moneyline (-172 at FanDuel)
The Pistons won four straight entering the break with the league’s top-ranked defensive efficiency and No. 3-ranked offensive efficiency over that admittedly small sample. Nonetheless, the Pistons and Spurs are pointing in opposite directions, particularly in the wake of the Spurs announcing they’re shutting down Victor Wemanyama for the rest of the season. It comes as no surprise that the Spurs are better offensively and defensively when Wembanyama is on the floor, and it’s going to take some time for San Antonio to adjust to life without his presence.

Jalen Duren over 11.5 rebounds (-113 at FanDuel)
On one hand, it’s reasonable to suggest that a player in Duren’s position may experience a bit of a letdown upon realizing he won’t be facing off against Victor Wembanyama. On the other hand, it’s also reasonable to suggest a player would salivate at the idea of feasting on the Spurs’ Wembanyama-less frontline. Duren is cleaning the glass at a high rate already, averaging 11.7 in February with a 21.9 rebounding percentage on the season.

Warriors moneyline (-140 at BetMGM)
Trash talk is nothing new for Draymond Green, but there’s trash talk and declaring that you’re going to win the NBA Finals. The presence of Jimmy Butler, another “dawg” despite the drama, certainly emboldens Green and Co. This isn’t about the Warriors making it through the West, but can they sustain that edge and energy entering the second half? They’re currently the 10th seed and 3.5 games out of the 6th seed, so focus and motivation — in theory — shouldn’t be a problem. They produced the league’s 6th-best net rating over their past five games compared to the Kings’ 18th-ranked net rating. 

Mavericks moneyline (-208 at Caesars)
Things aren’t great for the Mavericks underneath the surface — primarily due to injuries to their collection of big men, most notably Anthony Davis. They’re 4-1 straight-up and 4-0-1 against the spread over their past five, nonetheless. And they’re sharing the floor with the Pelicans, who are competing for the lottery with the game’s 2nd-worst record. The Pelicans are 4-23 on the road, and they entered the break with a 1-9 record straight-up.

Kyrie Irving over 2.5 three-pointers (-146 at FanDuel)
Irving has a lot going for him at the moment. He’s playing well, including shooting 40% from three-point range over his past five — and going 7 for 10 his last time out. With the Mavericks’ rash of injuries, namely the absence of Anthony Davis, Irving is the unquestioned No. 1 option on every possession. He’s averaging 20.6 shots, including seven threes. The Pelicans have been especially porous defensively, overall and from three-point range. They have the game’s worst defensive rating over their past 10 games, and they rank 26th in three-point attempts allowed and 22nd in opponents’ three-point percentage. 

Thunder over 124.5 points alternate (-145 at DraftKings)
We’re going to blend qualitative and quantitative analysis here. The Jazz are a bad defensive unit, ranking dead last in defensive efficiency on the season, and posting bottom-10 defensive ratings over their past five and 10 games. They do put up a little more resistance at home, while the Thunder don’t score quite as prolifically on the road — that’s why we’re looking at the alternate line here. Qualitatively, the Thunder are poised to make a push for an NBA Finals berth. They have intrinsic motivation to play with focus and intensity. Meanwhile, the Jazz are among the favorites in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes.

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Tonight’s Battle for Michigan Bragging Rights and the Lead in the Big Ten

There’s a huge rivalry game tonight, with No. 14 Michigan State traveling to Ann Arbor to take on No. 12 Michigan. The two schools are 1-2 in the Big Ten and are definitely competing with each other for NCAA Tournament seeding. The over hit in 12 of the past 17 Michigan games, and Michigan State is 7-3 against the spread in their past 10 road games.

No. 14 Michigan State (21-5, 12-3 Big Ten) vs. No. 12 Michigan (20-5, 12-2 Big Ten)
8pm on FOX

Top 5 Insights

• The Spartans’ Jaxon Kohler has made at least 1 block in 5 straight games (1.2 average)

• Michigan’s Nimari Burnett has made 2+ three pointers in 7 straight home games (3.0 average)

• Michigan State’s Jaden Akins dished out at least 1 assist in 6 of his past 7 games (1.6 average)

• The Wolverines’ Roddy Gayle Jr. combined for over 14.5 points + rebounds + assists in 16 of his past 17 home games (19.9 average)

• Michigan’s Tre Donaldson has gone over 1.5 three pointers in 6 of his past 7 games (2.0 average)

NBA: Sabonis’s Strong First Halves, Adebayo’s 18+ Points Streak

Heat (25-28, 12-17 Away) vs. Raptors (17-38, 12-17 Home)

• Bam Adebayo has scored 18+ points in 8 straight games (23.1 average)

• RJ Barrett has stayed under 3 turnovers in 5 straight games vs. top-10 defenses for turnovers forced (1.6 average)

Timberwolves (31-25, 15-12 Away) vs. Rockets (34-21, 17-9 Home)

• Amen Thompson has gone over 8.5 rebounds in 5 straight home games (11.0 average)

• Jaden McDaniels combined for 9+ rebounds + assists in 7 of his past 8 games (10.8 average)

Thunder (44-10, 18-7 Away) vs. Jazz (13-41, 6-19 Home)

• Jalen Williams has collected at least 25 points + assists in 6 straight road games (28.5 average)

• John Collins has scored over 16.5 points in 5 straight home games (18.6 average)

Bucks (30-24, 11-15 Away) vs. Wizards (9-45, 5-23 Home)

• Giannis Antetokounmpo has dished out at least 2 1st quarter assists in 7 straight games vs. bottom-10 defenses for assists allowed (3.0 average)

• Kyshawn George went over 0.5 steals in 10 of his past 11 home games (1.4 average)

Warriors (28-27, 13-14 Away) vs. Kings (28-27, 14-13 Home)

• Draymond Green has made 2+ steals in 6 straight road games (2.8 average)

• Domantas Sabonis has combined for over 19.0 1st half points + rebounds + assists in 13 straight home games (25.5 average)

Jones Leads No. 16 Marquette in Points, Assists and Field Goal Percentage

Name: Kam Jones
Team: No. 16 Marquette
Position: Guard
Today’s Matchup: @ Villanova
Season Stats: 19.0 points, 5.8 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 49.1% FG

Past 5 Games

• vs. Seton Hall: 14 points (50.0% FG), 5 assists, 4 rebounds, 1 steal

• vs. DePaul: 19 points (44.4% FG), 4 assists, 6 rebounds

• @ Creighton: 27 points (57.9% FG), 6 assists, 4 rebounds

• @ No. 12 St. John’s: 15 points (40.0% FG), 1 assists, 3 rebounds, 1 steal

• vs. No. 25 UConn: 22 points (45.0% FG), 3 assists, 1 rebound, 2 steals

Potential Bets (at DraftKings)

• 18+ points: -145

• 4+ rebounds: -140

• 5+ assists: -255

In the News 

• The saga of the Lakers sending Mark Williams back to the Hornets continues.

• Champions League draw pits Real Madrid against Atlético Madrid in the round of 16.

• The Yankees ended their 49-year beard ban.

• What Aaron Rodgers wants from his new team.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• All Day: PGA Tour’s Mexico Open on NBC, Golf Channel and Peacock

• 7pm: Knicks vs. Cavaliers on ESPN (followed by Timberwolves vs. Rockets at 9:30)

• 8pm: No. 14 Michigan State vs. No. 12 Michigan on FOX

Photo of the Day