OKC vs. MIN Round 2, Hornets' Record as +10.5 Underdog, and More NBA, NHL and College Basketball Bets and Trends

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: A look at the NFL Draft ahead of the combine

• Top 10 Bets: Charlotte is 12-5 ATS as an underdog of +10.5

• Game of the Day: No. 5 Houston gives up NCAA-low 57.7 points per game

• Betting Trends: Winnipeg is 7-2 against the spread in its past 9 games

• Player to Watch: Johnson finally hit 20+ points again for suddenly surging Nets

• Overtime: A look at what every NFL team needs this offseason

The NFL’s scouting combine takes place this week, which means we’re inching closer to the April 24th draft. While the combine can increase or decrease draft stock, we wanted to check in with our friends at Pro Football Focus to see where they see the top 10 picks before the combine begins:

1. Titans: WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado)

2. Browns: Edge Abdul Carter (Penn State)

3. Giants: QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)

4. Patriots: T Will Campbell (LSU)

5. Jaguars: DL Mason Graham (Michigan)

6. Raiders: RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)

7. Jets: QB Cameron Ward (Miami)

8. Panthers: WR Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona)

9. Saints: Edge James Pearce Jr. (Tennessee)

10. Bears: T Kelvin Banks Jr. (Texas)

Head to PFF.com to read their full breakdown of the first round.

In the newsletter, Chris has today’s top 10 bets to watch across the NBA and college basketball. We also give you a full analysis of No. 5 Houston at No. 9 Texas Tech, five betting trends for both of tonight’s NHL games, and an in-depth look at the Nets’ Cameron Johnson vs. the Wizards.

— Abe Rakov

Thunder and Timberwolves Playing in Back-to-Back Nights Should Limit Scoring in Game 2

By Chris Farley

Nuggets -5 (-110 at Caesars and Bookmaker)
Saturday night was a seminal moment in the Nuggets' season, although probably not the seminal moment they wanted. Instead of Nikola Jokic and his squad celebrating their 10th win in a row, it was LeBron and Luka who left the happy victors. Since January 1st, no offense has been better than the Nuggets, as they're 4th in net rating and at the top in a slew of other categories: assist ratio (1st), rebound percentage (1st), effective and true-shooting percentage (1st). The Pacers have exploded out of the post All-Star break with two big wins against two above-average teams, but on a back-to-back and not quite as consistent as Denver (14th in net rating this month), the value is on road chalk.

Nuggets vs. Pacers over 245.5 points (-110 at FanDuel and Bovada)
This is a matchup that just screams points! Oddsmakers agree, listing the clash at 245.5 as its opening number, which has since risen. The Pacers are one of the fastest moving programs in the NBA, ranked 9th in February and 11th since returning from the break. In two contests back, the Pacers put up 127 and 129 points against two formidable defenses (Memphis, LAC). On Monday they'll battle a Denver squad that's scoring 124 points per game (5th) and ranks 1st in offensive efficiency in February. Since Indiana is coming off a tiring home game last night, we don't suspect their defense will be top notch. Meanwhile, Denver is pissed after losing at home to the Lakers. Unleash the hounds!

Bulls +4.5 (-105 at Bovada and BetOnline)
The 76ers came out of the break with an embarrassing opening loss hosting Boston (124-104, Boston led 90% of the game by margin), then followed it up with an awful showing against Brooklyn (105-103, loss). The Nets' defense has been legitimate but if the Sixers want to make the playoffs, shooting 42.4% against a bottom-feeder is showing us they're far from ready. Philly has lost seven in a row and ranks 27th in net rating. The Bulls aren't any better (29th in net rating over their past seven), but since returning from the break they were very competitive in two losses to above average programs and, surprisingly, their defense ranks in the top-10. It's gross, but the favorite cannot be trusted right now.

Wizards +3 (-108 at DraftKings)
The Wizards aren't a team we bet on very often (if at all). This season they're just 24-30-2 against the spread (44.4%), the mark of a roster that can't find consistency on either side of the court. They rank 29th on offense, 30th on defense and 30th in net-rating this season. Still, Washington has far more offense than their opponent lately, averaging 13 more points per game in February (113.9), and their offense will get a boost from veterans Khris Middleton and the electric Malcom Brogdon, who hasn't played since before the break. The Nets will be without D'Angelo Russell and Cam Thomas on Monday, and they were outclassed in their first meeting. 

Nets vs. Wizards over 214.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
NBA fans likely won't make time to watch the stinky battle between Brooklyn and Washington on Monday, but the matchup presents a very interesting pairing. Statistically, the Nets are currently the best "under team" in the NBA, rated 1st in defensive efficiency and averaging the fewest points of any program (101.5) in February. Markets haven't caught up — they're 12-1 to the under since January 21st. The Wizards are generally an "over team" in this scenario (17-12 ATS to the over), and we like that trend to usurp the prior. Washington's offense hasn't been stellar this month (18th), but they're about to get back a ton of scorers Monday: Middleton, Brodgon, Sarr, and Smart. We like this to hit 220.

Hawks over 113 points (-110 at BetOnline)
This is a really tough spot for the Heat. Last night they were battling at Milwaukee, leading the Bucks by as many as 14 points at one point, but a win didn't materialize. Milwaukee outscored the visitors 65 to 48 in the second half, outpacing a Heat squad that shot just 29% from beyond the arc (9-31). Such has been the bane of Miami's existence this season, a team that's mediocre from the perimeter (14th in three-point percentage) and not adept at preventing long-balls from their opponents, either (23rd in opponent threes made per game). Atlanta is quietly the 6th best offense in February, an outfit that put up 143 in a loss against a good Detroit defense last night. This should be higher.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves under 228.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
We're not sure what possessed schedule-makers to have these two titans of the West face off two days in a row, but here we are. The Timberwolves have not shown their best at times this season, particularly on offense. Last night they put up 123 points in a back-and-forth barnburner against the same opponent, but we see reality seeping back in for this contest. They're both top-6 defensively this season (Oklahoma City is 1st), the Timberwolves typically move at a slower pace (20th, the Thunder's tempo is ranked 13th), and in their first two meetings they only produced 218 and 217 points as both sides showed stingy, physical defense for long stretches. We're looking for regression to the mean.

Hornets +11.5 (-110 consensus)
The Kings have no business posing as double-digit favorites against anyone right now. Their offensive talent is undeniable, but they're also a group that's endured a ton of change this season. Newcomer Zach LaVine is averaging just 20.3 points per game on 43% from the field with his new squad, and since returning from the break the Kings rank 28th on defense. They look out-of-sync and in their past 10 contests they average a -8.7 point differential per game. Yikes. The Hornets are as lousy as ever, off a pitiful 53-point loss to the Blazers on Saturday. The good news is Charlotte has nowhere to go but up and they're 12-5 ATS as an underdog of +10.5 or more this season.

Men’s College Basketball

Houston -1.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
Trends and recent history suggest that Texas Tech is in a pretty good position on Monday night. After all, the Red Raiders were the last program to overcome the Cougars, an 82-81 OT thriller at the Fertitta Center. They're also 14-2 at home this season. The problem? They're not Houston. The fact that they beat Houston first will only fuel the country's 5th-ranked program even more, and lately the Cougars have been decimating everyone in their path. Since their loss to Tech on February 1st, they've beat six straight opponents by an average margin of 9.5 points per game. Revenge is on the minds and hearts of the better roster, and we'd be foolish to ignore that.

Austin Peay +8.5 (-110 consensus)
Austin Peay is no threat in the ASUN Conference. Lipscomb, the top dog of the ASUN, dominated Austin Peay in mid-January (88-60), but this spot presents a different concern. Lipscomb has the better defense by far, KenPom ranks them 78th in the country, but with only two games left and little to play for, Lipscomb may look to cruise rather than charge to victory. Meanwhile, the hometown Governors have nothing to lose, and lately their offense has found a groove. They've scored 73 or more in four of their past five contests and dropped 90+ on Queens University and Central Arkansas. Motivation should be high in their home finale, and we like Austin Peay to give it their all.

No. 5 Houston Brings Nation’s Top-Ranked Scoring Defense to Lubbock

No. 5 Houston can all but wrap up the Big 12 regular season title with a win at No. 9 Texas Tech tonight. The Cougars are three games up on the Red Raiders and No. 19 Arizona with four games to play.

• Spread: Houston -1.5 (-114), Texas Tech +1.5 (-106)

  • Houston 16-11, Texas Tech 14-13

  • 85% of the money and 81% of the bets are with Houston

• Moneyline: Houston -126, Texas Tech +105

• Total (132.5): Over -115, Under -105

  • Houston 12-15, Texas Tech 15-12

No. 5 Houston (23-4, 15-1 Big 12) vs. No. 9 Texas Tech (21-6, 12-4 Big 12)
9pm on ESPN

Top 5 Insights:

• The over hit in 10 of the past 13 Texas Tech games where they were the underdog

• Houston’s L.J. Cryer has made 3+ three pointers in 7 straight games (3.7 average)

• Texas Tech’s JT Toppin has made at least 1 assist in 6 straight home games (1.7 average)

• The Cougars’ Milos Uzan went over 10.5 points in 5 of his past 6 games (14.7 average)

• The Red Raiders’ Elijah Hawkins has combined for over 9.5 rebounds + assists in 7 straight games (12.3 average)

NHL: Eichel’s Shots on Goal on the Road, Jets Run Against the Spread

Sharks (15-35-7, 6-17-5 Away) vs. Jets (40-14-3, 22-5-3 Home)

• The Jets are 7-2 against the spread in their past 9 games

• The Jets’ Cole Perfetti has notched at least 1 point in 6 straight games (1.3 average)

• San Jose’s Fabian Zetterlund has 2+ shots on goal in 5 straight road games (3.0 average)

• Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele had at least 2 shots on goal in 8 of his past 9 games vs. bottom-10 defenses for shots on goal allowed (2.9 average)

• The Sharks’ Macklin Celebrini had 3+ shots on goal in 12 of his past 14 games (3.8 average)

Golden Knights (34-17-6, 14-11-3 Away) vs. Kings (30-17-7, 18-3-2 Home)

• The Golden Knights are 10-2 against the spread in their past 12 games vs. top-10 scoring defenses

• The Kings’ Alex Laferriere has gone over 2.5 shots on goal in 5 of his past 6 home games (3.8 average)

• Vegas’s Alex Pietrangelo has 1+ shots on goal in 5 straight road games (1.6 average)

• LA’s Adrian Kempe notched at least 1 point in 9 of his past 11 home games (1.0 average)

• The Golden Knights’ Jack Eichel has gone over 2.5 shots on goal in 7 of his past 8 road games (4.2 average)

With Nets Suddenly in the Playoff Hunt, Johnson is Coming off 1st 20-Point Game Since Jan. 14

Name: Cameron Johnson
Team: Nets
Position: SF
Today’s Matchup: @ Wizards
Season Stats: 19.1 points (48.7% FG), 4.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists

Past 5 Games

• @ 76ers: 23 points (41.2% FG), 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals

• vs. Cavaliers: 18 points (54.5% FG), 3 rebounds, 2 assists

• vs. 76ers: 16 points (42.9% FG), 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 1 block

• vs. Hornets: 14 points (55.6% FG), 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block

• vs. Heat: 18 points (50.0% FG), 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block

Matchup:

• Johnson scored 17 points in just 25 minutes when the Nets and Wizards played earlier this month. He added 3 rebounds and 2 assists and finished with an uncharacteristically low 38.5% field goal percentage.

Pontential Bets:

• 20.5 points: Over -112, Under -118

• 2.5 threes: Over -182, Under +134

• 4.5 rebounds: Over +134, Under -172

• 3.5 assists: Over +122, Under -162

In the News 

• Read CBS Sports’ free agency primer for every team in the NFL.

• Shedeur Sanders is going to the NFL’s scouting combine in Indianapolis but reportedly won’t work out for teams there.

• Ovechkin’s hat trick leaves him 13 shy of the NHL’s goals record.

• Six players to watch during Spring Training.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 4:05pm: Spring training baseball on MLB Network—Yankees vs. Red Sox

• 8pm: Timberwolves vs. Thunder on NBA TV

• 9pm: No. 5 Houston vs. No. 9 Texas Tech on ESPN

Photo of the Day