Today's Top-10 Bets to Watch + 18 College Basketball Trends

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: A look at MLB division title odds

• Top 10 Bets: Toronto is 2-8 on the 2nd night of back-to-backs

• Game of the Day: Ausar Thompson has 3+ assists in 9 of 10 games

• Betting Trends: The under hit in 7 of the past 8 Michigan State games

• Player to Watch: MacKinnon has 19 points in 20 games against Devils

• Overtime: The latest men’s college basketball bracketology update

The start of the MLB regular season is less than three weeks away. While sportsbooks offer Spring Training betting, we’re looking ahead to where FanDuel has each division before the season begins:

• AL East: Yankees (+100), Orioles (+250), Red Sox (+440), Rays (+950), Blue Jays (+1300)

• AL Central: Twins (+210), Tigers (+250), Guardians (+290), Royals (+310), White Sox (+25000)

• AL West: Astros (+180), Rangers (+190), Mariners (+200), Angels (+2100), Athletics (+2500)

• NL East: Braves (+135), Phillies (+180), Mets (+210), Nationals (+10000), Marlins (+25000)

• NL Central: Cubs (-105), Brewers (+290), Reds (+490), Pirates and Cardinals (+1000)

• NL West: Dodgers (-650), Padres (+950), Diamondbacks (+1000), Giants (+3700), Rockies (+50000)

In the newsletter, Jack has today’s top 10 bets to watch across the NBA, men’s college basketball and this week’s PGA stop. We also give you a breakdown of the Celtics and Pistons matchup, two betting trends for nine men’s college basketball games, and a profile of the NHL’s assist leader (and 4 Nations Face-Off MVP) against the Devils.

— Abe Rakov

Green is Averaging Nearly 5 Points More Than Tonight’s Points Total Against the Spurs This Year

By Jack Dougherty

Quentin Grimes over 21.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105 at DraftKings)
The 76ers are running out of bodies to put on the court. Joel Embiid, Kyle Lowry, Eric Gordon and Guerschon Yabusele are all sidelined with injuries, and Grimes has taken on a bigger role than he probably expected coming over from the Mavericks. Grimes has cleared this line in all five games with the Sixers in which he’s played at least 30 minutes. He’s averaged 34.6 minutes, 16.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game in those contests. This line is too low for how much usage Grimes is seeing with his new team.

Donovan Clingan to record a double-double (+210 at FanDuel)
Clingan is the only true center on the Trail Blazers who’s still healthy. Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III have both been ruled out for Wednesday night’s game against the Wizards, so it’s time for Clingan to eat in the juiciest matchup imaginable. Washington has been defensively inept against centers all season, giving up the most points (24.1) and rebounds per game (9.5) to the position. Clingan will go up against 205-pound Alex Sarr and 6-foot-9 Richaun Holmes all night. At 7-foot-2 and 280 pounds, this is a matchup he should dominate. 

Pacers -10 (-110 at FanDuel)
The Raptors have been one of the worst teams in the NBA this season playing on no rest. Toronto is 2-8 this year on the second night of back-to-backs, and those eight losses have come by an average of 13.8 points. The Raptors have also given up at least 131 points in four of their past five games on no rest. This is Toronto’s third game in four nights, and the Pacers have the sixth-best offensive rating in the NBA over the past five games. All signs point toward a blowout. 

Jalen Green over 23.5 points (-118 at FanDuel)
Green has been hooping since the All-Star break, averaging 28.3 points per game and shooting 16-34 (47.1%) from three in three games. He’s been shooting well of late, but his usage is also up because Fred VanVleet has been out of the lineup due to an ankle injury. Now Green gets a familiar matchup against the Spurs, one he’s dominated this season. In three games against San Antonio this year, Green is averaging 28.7 points on 10.7 three-point attempts, and those came with VanVleet on the court and Victor Wembanyama protecting the paint. 

Josh Giddey under 32.5 points + rebounds + assists (-114 at FanDuel)
This is a scary button to click considering Giddey is averaging a whopping 45.3 points + rebounds + assists over his past three games, but those starts came against three struggling defensive teams in the Sixers, Suns and Knicks. The Clippers present a much tougher matchup, as they give up the fifth-fewest points per game to opposing point guards. Los Angeles also ranks third in opponent rebounds per game (50.0) and sixth in opponent assists per game (25.2), and it’s going to slow the pace down to take Giddey and the Bulls out of their comfort zone.

Men’s College Basketball

Georgetown +13.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
This spread is simply too high. Georgetown is dealing with multiple key injuries, but Ed Cooley’s squad isn’t going to stop fighting. The Hoyas have lost by more than 13 points only once in Big East play, and that came against one of the best defensive teams in the country in St. John’s. That’s not UConn, which ranks 99th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. The Huskies don’t have the firepower to blow teams out this year, as they haven’t beaten a single Big East team by more than 13 points.

Michigan State +3.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
This is an intriguing battle between two evenly matched teams, but KenPom has Michigan State rated slightly higher than Maryland in its adjusted efficiency margin. In that case, this spread should be closer to 1.5 or 2 if we’re giving Maryland a full three points for home-court advantage. Getting this line at 3.5 and capturing a full possession is extremely valuable in this case. Michigan State has much better depth to wear down the Terps, keep this one close and possibly pull off the upset.

Golf: Cognizant Classic

Shane Lowry top-20 finish (+115 at FanDuel)
For an Irishman, Lowry sure does love the Florida sun. He ranks first in this field in total strokes gained and strokes gained from ball striking on Florida golf courses over the past 24 rounds. Lowry especially thrives at PGA National, where he’s notched three straight top-five finishes. The recent form is also there, as Lowry finished runner-up to Rory McIlroy at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am earlier this month. He shouldn’t be plus money in the top-20 market.

Lucas Glover top-20 finish (+260 at FanDuel)
Glover isn’t a player you want to target on longer courses because he doesn’t crush the ball off the tee and can struggle with his long irons, but PGA National is the perfect spot for him. This golf course emphasizes accuracy over distance, and Glover ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in accuracy from off the tee. Because PGA National is a shorter course, most approach shots come in the intermediate range from 125-200, which is Glover’s sweet spot. Pebble Beach is a great comp course for PGA National, and Glover finished T3 there a few weeks ago. He can easily replicate that in a weaker field.

Max Greyserman top-10 finish (+500 at FanDuel)
Greyserman has recorded four straight finishes outside the top 20, but let’s not forget the tear he was on before this recent cold streak. In the swing season, the 29-year-old finished fourth or better in four of his final six starts of 2024. He kept it rolling in January with a T7 at The American Express in which he led the entire field in strokes gained on approach. This is the perfect spot for Greyserman to get back to that level of play, as he grew up playing PGA National and lives 10 minutes away from the golf course. Familiarity is key here due to the wind and ample water hazards, and no one knows this place better than Greyserman.

Celtics Take 12-Game Winning Streak Against Pistons to Detroit, Winners of 7 Straight Overall

The Celtics has won 12 in a row against the Pistons, the longest streak in the series since Detroit won nine in a row between 2006-2007. The Pistons currently have the league’s second-longest winning streak at seven games, with the Celtics just behind them at six.

• Spread: Celtics -4 (-110), Pistons +4 (-110)

  • BOS 25-32-1, DET 32-24-2

  • 73% of the money and 70% of the bets are with the Celtics

• Moneyline: Celtics -172, Pistons +142

• Total (226): Over/Under -110

  • BOS 26-32-0, DET 30-26-2

Celtics (42-16, 24-6 Away) vs. Pistons (32-26, 15-13 Home)
7pm

Top 5 Insights:

• Cade Cunningham has gone over 14.5 rebounds + assists in 5 straight home games (18.4 average)

• Jayson Tatum had 21+ first half points + rebounds + assists in 5 of his past 6 games (23.3 average)

• Ausar Thompson dished out 3+ assists in 9 of his past 10 games (4.0 average)

• Derrick White combined for over 25.5 points + rebounds + assists in 4 of his past 5 games (30.4 average)

• Jalen Duren scored at least 12 points in 8 of his past 9 home games (15.1 average)

Head to Head

• 12/12/24: Celtics won 123-99 in Boston

• 12/4/24: Celtics won 130-120 in Boston

• 10/26/24: Celtics won 124-118 in Detroit

• 3/22/24: Celtics won 129-102 in Detroit

• 3/18/24: Celtics won 119-94 in Boston

NCAAM: A&M’s Taylor IV’s Steals at Home, Kentucky’s Struggles ATS

No. 8 Michigan State (22-5, 13-3 Big Ten) vs. No. 16 Maryland (21-6, 11-5 Big Ten)

• The under hit in 7 of the past 8 Spartans games

• Maryland’s Rodney Rice has combined for over 18.5 points + rebounds + assists in 6 straight home games (22.5 average)

Ole Miss (19-8, 8-6 SEC) vs. No. 1 Auburn (25-2, 13-1 SEC)

• Auburn’s Chaney Johnson made 1+ block in 6 of his past 7 home games (1.3 average)

• Ole Miss’s Dre Davis has at least 1 steal in 7 straight road games (1.7 average)

Vanderbilt (18-9 ,6-8 SEC) vs. No. 12 Texas A&M (20-7, 9-5 SEC)

• A&M’s Wade Taylor IV made 1+ steal in 16 of his past 19 home games (1.5 average)

• Vanderbilt’s AJ Hoggard has at least 1 three pointer in 9 of his past 10 road games (1.2 average)

Notre Dame (12-15, 6-10 ACC) vs. No. 13 Clemson (22-5, 14-2 ACC)

• Clemson’s Viktor Lakhin went over 1.5 blocks in 9 of his past 10 home games (2.7 average)

• Notre Dame’s Markus Burton made at least 2 three pointers in 6 of his past 7 road games (2.6 average)

Rice (13-15, 4-11 American) vs. No. 18 Memphis (22-5, 12-2 American)

• Rice is 7-1 against the spread in their past 8 games as the underdog

• The over hit in 5 of the past 6 games where the Owls were the underdog

No. 7 St. John's (24-4, 15-2 Big East) vs. Butler (13-14, 6-10 Big East)

• The Red Storm’s Aaron Scott has gone over 1.5 steals in 6 straight road games (2.5 average)

• Butler’s Jahmyl Telfort has grabbed 5+ rebounds in 5 straight games (5.6 average)

No. 17 Kentucky (18-9, 7-7 SEC) vs. Oklahoma (17-10, 4-10 SEC)

• The under hit in 6 of the past 8 Sooners games where they were the underdog

• Kentucky is only 11-22 against the spread in their past 33 games as the favorite

Utah (15-12, 7-9 Big 12) vs. No. 22 Arizona (18-9, 12-4 Big 12)

• Arizona’s Jaden Bradley dished out at least 5 assists in 5 of his past 6 home games (5.3 average)

• Utah’s Gabe Madsen made 1+ steals in 15 of his past 18 road games (1.1 steals/game average)

No. 25 BYU (19-8, 10-6 Big 12) vs. Arizona State (13-14, 4-12 Big 12)

• BYU’s Richie Saunders has gone over 1.5 assists in 5 straight games (2.4 average)

• Arizona State is 0-6 against the spread in their past 6 home games (and has lost 7 straight at home outright)

MacKinnon Leads NHL in Assists But Has 0 Points in 2 Games Since Earning 4 Nations Face-Off MVP

Name: Nathan MacKinnon
Team: Colorado Avalanche
Position: Center
Today’s Matchup: vs. New Jersey Devils
Season Stats: 21 goals, 66 assists (1st), 238 shots, +18

Past 5 Games

• @ St. Louis: 3 shots

• @ Nashville: 8 shots

• @ Edmonton: 1 goal, 3 assists, 7 shots

• @ Calgary: 3 assists, 2 shots

• @ Vancouver: 5 shots

Matchup

• MacKinnon didn’t collect a point when these two teams faced off in December in New Jersey, but he did fire off six shots. The NHL leader in assists had a very busy 4 Nations Face-Off for Team Canada (he was named MVP), but hasn’t gotten on the board in two games since. In 20 games against the Devils, MacKinnon has 7 goals and 12 assists, with a plus-minus of +10.

Pontential Bets

• Any time goal scorer: +135

• 3.5 shots: Over -115, Under -113

• 1.5 points: Over +122, Under -156

In the News 

• WNBA legend Diana Taurasi retired after 20 seasons.

• Georgia fans actually listened when school officials asked them to wait 90 seconds after the game before storming the court after their win over No. 3 Florida.

• North Carolina named NBA agent Jim Tanner as the men’s basketball team’s general manager.

• Check out ESPN’s latest bracketology update.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 6:30pm: No. 8 Michigan State vs. No. 16 Maryland on the Big Ten Network

• 7pm: 76ers vs. Knicks on ESPN (followed by Spurs vs. Rockets at 9:30)

• 10pm: Vancouver Canucks vs. LA Kings on TNT

Photo of the Day