Friday's Top 10 Bets to Watch + 30 College Basketball, NHL and Soccer Trends

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Betting trends for the weekend’s soccer slate

• Top 10 Bets: Pistons are 10-6-1 as the home underdog

• Game of the Day: Purdue hasn’t beaten a +.500 Big Ten team in a month

• Betting Trends: Stars’ Johnston scored at least 1 point in 13 of 16 games

• Player to Watch: Mitchell has scored 35, 35 and 31 points against the Celtics

• Overtime: The NFL’s record-setting new salary cap

There’s a lot of soccer across Europe and the U.S. this weekend, so to get you ready for it we’re giving you the top 10 player betting trends to watch today through Sunday:

• PSG’s Ousmane Dembélé has gone over 0.5 goals + assists in 7 of his past 8 games (1.5 average)

• Inter Milan’s Denzel Dumfries has taken at least 1 shot in 6 straight games (2.2 average)

• Fiorentina’s David de Gea has given up at least 1 goal in 11 straight games (1.6 average)

• West Ham’s Jarrod Bowen has 1+ first half shots on goal in 11 of his past 12 games (1.2 average)

• Lamine Yamal has at least 1 shot on goal in 11 of his past 13 games (1.2 average)

• Atlanta’s Brad Guzan made at least 4 saves in 9 of his past 10 road games on the road (6.4 average)

• Marseille’s Mason Greenwood has 1+ goals + assists in 6 of his past 7 home games (0.9 average)

• Lecce’s Nikola Krstovic has over 0.5 shots on goal in 6 straight road games (1.7 average)

• Leicester’s Conor Coady hasn’t committed a foul in 8 of his past 9 games (0.1 average)

• Athletic Bilbao’s Iñaki Williams has 2+ shots in 5 straight games (3.2 average)

In the newsletter, Craig has today’s top 10 bets to watch across the NBA. We also give you an analysis of UCLA vs. No. 20 Purdue, five betting trends for each of tonight’s three NHL games, and a rundown of Donovan Mitchell’s fourth matchup of the season against the Celtics.

— Abe Rakov

Knicks Won 6 of 10 Despite NBA’s 2nd-Worst Defensive Rating Over that Span 

By Craig Williams

Pistons +1.5 alternate (-145 at BetMGM)
The Pistons are humming, taking an eight-game win streak into tonight’s tilt with the Nuggets, who fell in Milwaukee last night. They’ve also covered six straight, and they’re 10-6-1 as the home underdog. We’re giving the Nuggets some respect here as well. They’re 10-1 straight-up playing in the second leg of back-to-backs, and they’ve won eight of 10 entering tonight’s contest. Something will have to give, but regardless of who blinks, we like the Pistons to play their guests tough and to push them to the brink. 

Pistons vs. Nuggets under 60.5 1st quarter points (-115 at Caesars)
The Pistons have produced the league’s stingiest defensive rating over their eight-game winning streak, and they’ve trended slightly to the under overall on their home floor. The Nuggets are playing in the second leg of a back-to-back, and even though they are 6-5 to the over in those spots, we’re leaning into the Pistons’ defensive form. And we’re going to bank on the Pistons sinking their teeth into the matchup early, establishing their defensive resistance against the Nuggets, who may still need to get their legs underneath them.

Timberwolves moneyline (-140 at BetMGM)
The Timberwolves are playing in the second leg of a back-to-back, a spot in which they’re 6-4 against the spread. And they’re 6-5 against the spread when they have the rest disadvantage. Those aren’t dominant marks, but they stand out against a Jazz team that they’ve dominated in recent meetings. The Wolves have won and covered their past three meetings against the Jazz, each in Utah, by an average margin of 18 points. Overall, they’re 6-0 straight-up and 5-1 against the spread against the Jazz over their past six games, with a 19.7 average margin of victory. The Wolves will need to step up in the absence of Anthony Edwards (suspension), but it’s not uncommon for teams to do just that when their star is absent.

Blazers -1.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
The Blazers are riding a modest three-game winning streak, with two coming on the road. They enter with a 10-19 road record, but Barclays Center is hardly a fortress for the Nets, who are 9-19 on their home floor. They’re both 6-4 over their past 10 games, and over that stretch both the Blazers (ninth) and Nets (sixth) rank top 10 in defensive rating. There’s a significant discrepancy, however, in their offensive play over that stretch. The Nets have the fourth-worst offensive rating and the slowest pace in the league. Meanwhile, Portland ranks 13th in offensive rating and ninth in pace over their past 10 games.

Blazers vs. Nets under 218.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
We’re banking on the Blazers producing enough offense to emerge victorious against the Nets, but we’re not banking on a scintillating offensive performance. The Nets have been one of the league’s stingiest defensive teams over the past 10 games, and they play at the game’s slowest pace — overall and across the aforementioned 10-game sample. The Blazers have played relatively well offensively across their past 10 games, but they’ve played stingy defensively themselves as well. We may like Portland overall, but we still like the Nets to establish their tempo at home, ultimately setting the stage for a low-scoring contest.

Knicks vs. Grizzlies over 244.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Much has been made of the Knicks’ forgiving defense. They’ve won six of 10 despite producing the game’s second-worst defensive rating over that span. The Grizzlies have slipped defensively as well, albeit over a small sample of three contests. The Knicks are 16-10-1 on the road and still playing well offensively — they rank 11th in offensive efficiency across 12 February contests. Memphis has gone over in two of three, and each of the past two meetings between the Grizzlies and Knicks produced overs. Add the fast pace at which the Grizzlies play, and we like the stage for an over in this spot.

Thunder -9.5 alternate (-156 at FanDuel)
We’re eyeing the Thunder against an alternate spread in spite of their recent struggles against the number. They’re 1-3 against the spread over their past four, the same record against the spread the Hawks possess across their past four contests. The Thunder continue to fill it up offensively, as they rank second in offensive efficiency over their past four games. Neither team has been great defensively, but the Thunder’s 9.3 net rating over that small sample compared to the Hawks’ -4.6 mark suggests the Thunder can control the contest, even on the road, and finish with a cover.

Celtics moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)
The Celtics are coming off an upset loss against the red-hot Pistons, and they're 15-1 straight-up following a loss. The Celtics won and covered their most recent meeting with the Cavs in Cleveland, and they're playing at a very high level across their past 10 games, Wednesday's loss notwithstanding. The Cavs can say the same, but we’re leaning into the home-floor advantage for the Celtics.

Cavaliers vs. Celtics under 233 points (-110 at Caesars)
It’s easy and reasonable to look at the previous two meetings between the Celtics and Cavs ending in unders, and we’re leaning that way once again. The Celtics won by seven on February 4 and the Cavs won the December 1 matchup by four. Every indication suggests these two should be in for another competitive showing. Both teams rank top seven in defensive efficiency across their past 10 games while the Celtics, in particular, have played at the game’s third-slowest pace over that span. If they’re able to establish their tempo — a presumption we’re willing to make for this play — we like another competitive and relatively low-scoring showing.

Pacers moneyline + over 225.5 points vs. Heat (+197 at FanDuel)
The Pacers are playing solid ball right now, winning six of 10 and four of five straight-up. They rank seventh in offensive rating over their past five games with the 11th-ranked defensive rating. Miami, meanwhile, is 3-6-1 against the spread and rank bottom third in offensive rating over their past 10 games. Head-to-head, the Pacers have dominated this matchup in recent seasons, winning four of five and covering three of five dating back to 2023. We like the Pacers to prevail and force Miami into a faster, higher scoring game than they prefer. 

Fading Boilermakers Haven’t Beaten a Team with a +.500 Big Ten Record in Over a Month

Purdue is struggling in the most difficult part of its schedule, losing four straight (three of which came against ranked teams) to fall out of contention for the Big Ten regular season title. Surging UCLA comes in winning 8 of 10 and is 5-1 against AP Top 25 teams so far this season — tied with Michigan State for the best mark in the conference.

• Spread: Purdue -5.5 (-105), UCLA +5.5 (-115)

  • Purdue 15-13, UCLA 17-11

  • 80% of the money and 63% of the bets are with the Boilermakers

• Moneyline: Purdue -210, UCLA +172

• Total (139.5): Over/Under -110

  • Purdue 16-12, UCLA 12-16

UCLA (20-8, 11-6 Big Ten) vs. No. 20 Purdue (19-9, 11-6 Big Ten)
8pm on FOX

Top 5 Insights

• UCLA is 5-2 against the spread in their past 7 games as the underdog, and the over hit in 7 of the past 10 games in which the Bruins were the underdog

• Purdue’s Trey Kaufman-Renn has 1+ steals in 9 straight home games (1.2 average)

• The Boilermakers’ Fletcher Loyer has combined for at least 16 points + rebounds in 6 straight home games (18.7 average)

• The Bruins’ Tyler Bilodeau stayed under 2 turnovers in 10 of his past 11 games (0.8 average)

• UCLA’s Kobe Johnson went over 10.5 points + assists in 10 of his past 11 road games (12.2 average)

NHL: Rangers Unders vs. Top Defenses, MacKinnon’s Faceoffs Won for Avalanche

Maple Leafs (36-20-2, 16-9-2 Away) vs. Rangers (29-25-4, 14-12-2 Home)

• The under hit in the Rangers past 5 games vs. top-10 scoring defenses

• Toronto’s Morgan Rielly has over 1.5 shots on goal in 6 straight road games (2.3 average)

• The Maple Leafs’ Auston Matthews has at least 1 assist in 6 straight road games (1.5 average)

• The Rangers’ Braden Schneider made 2+ blocks in 10 of his past 11 home games (2.6 average)

• New York’s Will Cuylle went over 3.5 hits in 8 of his past 9 games (4.4 average)

Kings (31-17-8, 12-14-5 Away) vs. Stars (37-19-2, 20-7-1 Home)

• Dallas’s Mason Marchment has 2+ shots on goal in 13 straight home games (3.1 average)

• The Stars’ Wyatt Johnston scored at least 1 point in 13 of his past 16 games (1.3 average)

• Dallas’s Jason Robertson has gone over 2.5 shots on goal in 7 straight games (3.9 average)

• LA’s Anze Kopitar has won at least 11 faceoffs in 8 of his past 10 road games (12.0 average)

• The Kings’ Adrian Kempe has at least 3 shots on goal in 5 straight road games (4.2 average)

Wild (34-20-4, 21-7-3 Away) vs. Avalanche (34-24-2, 17-10-2 Home)

• Colorado’s Cale Makar has gone over 2.5 shots on goal in 6 straight games (5.0 average)

• The Avalanche’s Nathan MacKinnon won at least 11 faceoffs in 8 of his past 9 games (13.0 average)

• Colorado’s Devon Toews made 2+ shots on goal in 8 of his past 9 home games (2.6 average)

• Minnesota’s Yakov Trenin made at least 3 hits in 6 of his past 7 road games (4.6 average)

• The Wild’s Matt Boldy scored at least 1 point in 4 of his past 5 games (1.4 average)

Mitchell Scores Nearly 10 More Points a Game vs. the Celtics than He Averages on the Season

Name: Donovan Mitchell
Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
Position: Shooting Guard
Today’s Matchup: @ Boston Celtics
Season Stats: 24.0 points (45.5% FG), 4.8 assists, 4.3 rebounds

Past 5 Games

• @ Orlando: 11 points (41.7% FG), 5 assists, 3 rebounds

• vs. Memphis: 33 points (47.8% FG), 6 assists, 2 rebounds

• vs. New York: 27 points (66.7% FG), 5 assists, 3 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal

• @ Brooklyn: 26 points (38.1% FG), 2 assists, 5 rebounds, 1 steal

• @ Toronto: 21 points (37.5% FG), 5 assists, 6 rebounds

Matchup

• Mitchell has scored 35, 35 and 31 points against the Celtics this season and collected no fewer than 7 rebounds in the three matchups. He went 3-11 and 4-14 from three in the first and most recent meetings of the season, but was 6-11 in the December 1st matchup (the lone Cavaliers win).

Pontential Bets

• 27.5 points: Over -118, Under -112

• 3.5 made threes: Over +116, Under -154

• 4.5 rebounds: Over -138, Under +104

• 5.5 assists: Over +128, Under -172

• 37.5 points + rebounds + assists: Over -125, Under -106

In the News 

• The NFL increased its salary cap by $23.8 million per team to a record $279.2 million.

• Travis Hunter won’t work out at the NFL combine, but hopes whoever drafts him will let him play on both sides of the ball.

• What are the Cavinder twins going to do after their college basketball careers likely come to a close in a couple of weeks?

• CBS Sports grades the top DL prospects after the NFL combine.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2:30pm: VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern Munich on ESPN2

• 7:30pm: Cavaliers vs. Celtics on ESPN (followed by Clippers vs. Lakers at 10pm)

• 8pm: UCLA vs. No. 20 Purdue on FOX

• 11pm: Nevada vs. UNLV in a men’s college basketball nightcap on FS1

Photo of the Day