NFL Bets and Trends to Watch Across Today’s Slate

We also look at which Week 14 matchups will have the biggest impact on the rest of the NFL season

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Five NFL matchups that could define the rest of the season

2. The Rundown: Indiana is the No. 1 team in college football

3. Game of the Day: NFC-leading Bears’ next test is against Packers at Lambeau

4. By the Numbers: Player trends across six NFL games

5. Overtime: CFP campaigning sounds a lot like BCS lobbying

1. Leading Off

There are five NFL matchups today that could have an outsized impact on the rest of the regular season: three games between the top two teams in divisions, an AFC contest with potential Wild Card implications, and we’ll find out if the Bengals really have a shot at making an unbelievable comeback.

• Colts (8-4, 2-3 Away) vs. Jaguars (8-4, 4-2 Home): Jacksonville has won three straight games and are now tied for the AFC South lead, while Indianapolis has struggled since Daniel Jones started playing through a fracture in his fibula. The Colts give up 32 more yards per game than the Jaguars.

• Steelers (6-6, 2-3 Away) vs. Ravens (6-6, 3-4 Home): Pittsburgh has lost two in a row, while Baltimore is coming off a defeat to Cincinnati. The Ravens are favored at home and Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is slowing down — he hasn’t thrown for over 205 yards since October.

• Bears (9-3, 5-2 Away) vs. Packers (8-3-1, 4-2 Home): After losing the first two games of the season, Chicago has won 9 of 10 and is finally starting to convince the doubters. After upsetting the Eagles in Philadelphia last week, a win at Lambeau would prove the Bears aren’t flukes. A Packers victory could return Green Bay to the status it began the season with — Super Bowl contenders.

• Texans (7-5, 3-3 Away) vs. Chiefs (6-6, 5-1 Home): Both teams really need a win, but Houston is competing for both a division title and a Wild Card spot, while Kansas City’s only hope is the Wild Card. The Texans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL with four straight wins and and give up the fewest yards per game in the league.

• Bengals (4-8, 2-4 Away) vs. Bills (8-4, 5-1 Home): With quarterback Joe Burrow back, the Bengals upset the Ravens last week and are only two games back of the division lead. The Bills are three wins behind the Patriots in the AFC East and can’t afford to lose if they want any shot of keeping their division crown.

— Abe Rakov

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2. The Rundown

No. 2 Indiana Upset No. 1 Ohio State to Claim the Top Spot in College Football Heading Into CFP

• After the first two college football conference championship games yesterday were uninteresting blowouts, the nightcaps were worth the wait — and in a few hours, we’ll see how it all impacts the College Football Playoff bracket (noon ET on ESPN):

  • Big Ten: Indiana made its case that it’s the best team in college football. The No. 2 Hoosiers upset No. 1 Ohio State 13-10 to win the conference title end the defending national champions’ 16-game winning streak. Just two seasons ago, Indiana finished last in the Big Ten’s East Division at 1-8, which is why they hired Curt Cignetti away from James Madison. The rest is history.

  • ACC: Duke upset No. 17 Virginia 27-20 in overtime, potentially losing the conference its CFP slot. The Blue Devils, who have five losses, never trailed. To even make it to overtime, the Cavaliers had to score 10 points with less than four minutes to go in the fourth quarter.

  • Big 12: No. 4 Texas Tech beat No. 11 BYU in their rematch by an even bigger margin (27) than the first time (22) and almost certainly secured a CFP bye.

  • SEC: No. 3 Georgia scored a touchdown in each quarter to avenge its only loss of the season with a 28-7 win over No. 9 Alabama, which now has to wonder if a loss in the extra game will be punished by falling to the 10 seed or dropping from the playoff entirely.

• According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, “Nobody in the Steelers’ organization nor around the NFL expects Pittsburgh to fire [coach Mike] Tomlin,” but the team has until March to decide whether to pick up the coach’s 2027 option or if he’ll coach next season without job security. Tomlin, who was hired in 2007 and has never had a losing season, is the longest-tenured head coach in the NFL. The Steelers are 6-6 and play at Baltimore today and have the Dolphins, Lions, and Browns before ending the season with another matchup against the Ravens.

• Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami won the MLS Cup 3-1 over the Vancouver Whitecaps, and Messi was named the MVP. This was just Inter Miami’s sixth season in the league and the second with Messi. Eight different clubs have won the MLS title in the past nine seasons, and 16 franchises have become champions in the league’s 30 years.

• No. 1 Purdue lost 81-58 to No. 10 Iowa State, matching the largest home defeat ever for a top-ranked men’s college basketball team. Even more impressive was the fact that the Cyclones were only up 35-31 at halftime. “I feel they just stole our spirit,” Purdue coach Matt Painter said. “They took us to the woodshed.”

3. Game of the Day

Bears Keep Passing Tests, Now NFC’s No. 1 Team is an Underdog Against Packers at Lambeau

The Bears keep winning and the pundits keep doubting them. Chicago started the season with a soft schedule but just beat Pittsburgh and Philadelphia back-to-back and is 9-3 and atop the NFC. The Bears are nearly a touchdown underdog at Lambeau Field against the Packers, but spread bettors are siding with them in this matchup in a significant way. Green Bay has won three in a row (compared to Chicago’s five), and gives up the fourth-fewest yards per game in the NFL.

Bears (9-3, 5-2 Away) vs. Packers (8-3-1, 4-2 Home)
4:25pm on FOX

The Odds

• Spread: Bears (+6.5, -105), Packers (-6.5, -115)

  • 62% of the money and 75% of the bets are with the Bears

  • ATS | CHI (road): 5-2, GB (home): 3-3

• Moneyline: Bears +260, Packers -320

• Total (43.5): Over -120, Under -120

  • CHI: 5-7, GB: 6-6

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• Bears QB Caleb Williams | Passing Yards: 193.5 (154, 239, 193), Passing Attempts: 30.5 (36, 35, 32)

• Packers QB Jordan Love | Passing Yards: 216.5 (234, 139, 174), Passing TD: 1.5 (4, 0, 2), Passing Attempts: 28.5 (30, 21, 24), Rushing Yards: 8.5 (4, 15, 7)

• Bears WR D.J. Moore | Receiving Yards: 39.5 (17, 64, 18), Receptions: 3.5 (2, 5, 1), Anytime TD: +250 (0, 2, 0)

• Packers WR Christian Watson | Receiving Yards: 50.5 (80, 49, 46), Receptions: 3.5 (4, 5, 4), Anytime TD: +180 (1, 0, 2)

• Bears RB D’Andre Swift | Rushing Yards: 49.5 (125, 15, 90), Rushing Attempts: 11.5 (18, 8, 21), Anytime TD: +195 (1, 0, 0)

• Packers RB Josh Jacobs | Rushing Yards: 78.5 (83, 40, 74), Rushing Attempts: 18.5 (17, 7, 21), Anytime TD: -180 (0, 0, 1)

*Stats listed are past 3 games, most recent to least recent

4. By the Numbers

Brissett Has Thrown for 300+ Yards, Made 40+ Pass Attempts in 3 Straight Games for Cardinals

NFL

• Seahawks (-6.5, -115) vs. Falcons (+6.5, -105): 80% of the money and 78% of the bets are with Seattle

  • ATS | SEA (road): 5-1, ATL (home): 3-3

  • Total (44.5) | SEA: 7-5, ATL: 5-7

  • SEA WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Receiving Yards: 91.5 (23, 167, 105), Receptions: 6.5 (2, 8, 9), Anytime TD: -105 (0, 2, 0)

  • ATL RB Bijan Robinson | Rushing Yards: 63.5 (142, 70, 104), Rush Attempts: 15.5 (23, 14, 23), Anytime TD: -140 (1, 0, 2)

• Saints (+8.5, -112) vs. Buccaneers (-8.5, -108): 86% of the money and 74% of the bets are with Tampa Bay

  • ATS | NO (road): 3-3, TB (home): 4-3

  • Total (41.5) | NO: 3-9, TB: 6-6

  • TB QB Baker Mayfield | Passing Yards: 215.5 (194, 41, 173), Passing TD: 1.5 (0, 2, 1), Passing Attempts: 30.5 (28, 19, 28), Rushing Yards: 13.5 (27, 19, 39)

  • NO TE Juwan Johnson | Receiving Yards: 40.5 (39, 46, 92), Receptions: 4.5 (5, 6, 4)

• Commanders (-1.5, -110) vs. Vikings (+1.5, -110): 67% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Washington

  • ATS | WAS (road): 1-4, MIN (home): 2-3

  • Total (43.5) | WAS: 6-6, MIN: 7-5

  • WAS QB Jayden Daniels | Passing Yards: 214.5 (153, 156, 211), Passing TDs: 1.5 (0, 1, 3), Pass Attempts: 28.5 (22, 22, 26), Rushing Yards: 35.5 (51, 35, 52)

  • MIN RB Aaron Jones | Rushing Yards: 45.5 (3, 41, 70), Rush Attempts: 11.5 (6, 9, 16)

• Titans (+3.5, -105) vs. Browns (-3.5, -115): 80% of the money and 78% of the bets are with Cleveland

  • ATS | TEN (road): 2-3, CLE (home): 1-5

  • Total (33.5) | TEN: 7-5, CLE: 4-8

  • TEN RB Tony Pollard | Rushing Yards: 49.5 (60, 20, 22), Rushing Attempts: 14.5 (10, 11, 10)

  • CLE RB Quinshon Judkins: Rushing Yards: 80.5 (91, 47, 59), Rushing Attempts: 21.5 (23, 16, 17), Anytime TD: -115 (0, 2, 0)

• Broncos (-7.5, -110) vs. Raiders (+7.5, -110): 88% of the money and 80% of the bets are with Denver

  • ATS | DEN (road): 2-2-1, LV (home): 2-4

  • Total (40.5) | DEN: 4-8, LV: 4-8

  • DEN QB Bo Nix | Passing Yards: 225.5 (321, 295, 150), Passing TDs: 1.5 (1, 0, 1), Pass Attempts: 31.5 (45, 37, 28), Rushing Yards: 15.5 (16, 8, -2)

  • LV TE Brock Bowers | Receiving Yards: 59.5 (63, 55, 72), Receptions: 5.5 (4, 6, 7), Anytime TD: +185 (2, 0, 0)

• Rams (-9.5, -110) vs. Cardinals (+9.5, -110): 85% of the money and 73% of the bets are with Los Angeles

  • ATS | LAR (road): 3-2, ARI (home): 5-1

  • Total (47.5) | LAR: 5-7, ARI: 7-5

  • LAR QB Matthew Stafford | Passing Yards: 264.5 (243, 273, 130), Passing TDs: 2.5 (2, 3, 2), Pass Attempts: 34.5 (28, 35, 28)

  • ARI QB Jacoby Brissett | Passing Yards: 255.5 (301, 317, 452), Passing TDs: 1.5 (2, 1, 2), Pass Attempts: 37.5 (40, 49, 57)

NBA

• Magic (+3.5, -112) vs. Knicks (-3.5, -108): 74% of the money and 72% of the bets are with New York

  • ATS | ORL (road): 7-3, NYK (home): 8-5

  • Total (232.5) | ORL: 13-10, NYK: 12-10

• Celtics (-2, -106) vs. Raptors (+2, -114): 77% of the money and 74% of the bets are with Boston

  • ATS | BOS (road): 4-7, TOR (home): 5-7

  • Total (226.5) | BOS: 11-12, TOR: 10-14

• Nuggets (-10.5, -106) vs. Hornets (+10.5, -114): 79% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Denver

  • ATS | DEN (road): 8-4, CHA (home): 3-8

  • Total (234.5) | DEN: 15-7, CHA: 8-15

• Lakers (-4, -110) vs. 76ers (+4, -110): 80% of the money and 58% of the bets are with Los Angeles

  • ATS | LAL (road): 6-6, PHI (home): 6-7

  • Total (235.5) | LAL: 16-6, PHI: 11-11

5. Overtime

Quotable

“When you look at all of it, we had an opportunity to play four common opponents … In three of those games, our results were significantly more impressive and more dominant than Notre Dame’s. More significantly, we played, and we won the game.” — University of Miami football coach Mario Cristobal to Colin Cowherd on why the College Football Playoff selection committee should swap his No. 12 Hurricanes with No. 10 Notre Dame if the final playoff spot comes down to the two teams. After No. 11 BYU’s blowout loss, to avoid the bad look of putting Miami one slot behind a team it beat, the committee could move the Fighting Irish up to ninth after Alabama’s lackluster defeat to Georgia in the SEC title game (ND 9th, Alabama 10th, Miami 11th, BYU 12th).

What to Watch (times ET)

• 9am: Brighton vs. West Ham on USA (followed by Fulham vs. Crystal Palace)

• 12pm: College Football Playoff selection show on ESPN

• 1pm: Colts vs. Jaguars or Steelers vs. Ravens on CBS

• 3pm: No. 19 Texas Tech vs. LSU [MCBB] on ESPN2 (or Oregon vs. No. 4 UCLA [WCBB] on FS1)

• 4:25pm: Bears vs. Packers on FOX

• 5pm: Georgetown vs. No. 17 UNC [MCBB] on ESPN

• 7pm: Golden Knights vs. Rangers on NHL Network

• 8:30pm: Texans vs. Chiefs on NBC