Four NBA Finals Bets to Consider + French Open and WNBA Insights

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Previewing the NBA Finals

• Top 10 Bets: NBA, French Open and WNBA Futures

• Matchups: Current Padres hitters are 59-188 (.314) vs. Logan Webb

• Player Profile: No. 5 Jack Draper looks to head to French Open quarters

• Overtime: The record-setting Rockies

The NBA Finals don’t tip off until Thursday (8:30pm on ABC), but it’s never too early to check out previews for the Pacers vs. Thunder matchup. Here are the seven most worth reading to start your week:

• Associated Press: Different paths, same destination for the Thunder and Pacers, who will face off in the NBA Finals

• ESPN: What to know ahead of Pacers-Thunder championship matchup

• CBS Sports: Three storylines for Thunder vs. Pacers, who have more in common than you might think

• Indianapolis Star: Position-by-position breakdown of 2025 NBA Finals

• The Oklahoman: How did OKC Thunder get back to NBA Finals? Timeline from Paul George trade to now

• Yahoo Sports: The Pacers are introducing a 'new blueprint' for NBA success

• The Athletic: Should the NBA be concerned about a small-market NBA Finals?

—Abe Rakov

Will the Thunder Give Up More Than 1 Game to the Pacers + More NBA Finals Insights

By Chris Farley

Thunder to win series 4-1 (+250 at DraftKings)
The Thunder have been the consensus best team in the NBA all season and all of the metrics agree. Their offense is incredible, full of gifted sharpshooters who can hit a shot from anywhere on the court (3rd in points per game, top-10 in all shooting percentage rankings), but their true differentiator is defense. Mark Daigneault's defense is disciplined and relentless, a group that suffocates opponents (107.3 points allowed per game) and permits just a 34.1% shooting rate from beyond the arc (1st). The Pacers are a nonstop engine that runs through an offense with high-chemistry, but they haven’t offered the resistance of OKC, nor do they have a star quite like MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Indiana probably pulls off one, but that's all we'll give them.

Most Total Made Threes: Aaron Nesmith (+425 at DraftKings)
Aaron Nesmith tied Tyrese Haliburton with 16 threes in the Eastern Conference Finals, which started with a scintillating eight buckets from beyond the arc in Game 1. He slowed down a little as the series went on and New York got more physical, but we like his chances even better in this series. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been taking fewer threes, averaging just 4.4 per game in the Western Finals, and we imagine Daigneault's focus will be on slowing down Haliburton, who took over the Pacers-Knicks battle on more than one occasion. That should free Nesmith, who made as many threes as Haliburton despite averaging 3.4 fewer attempts per game (5), to become an X-factor against the NBA's best long-ball defense.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win MVP (-500 at FanDuel)
Obviously you're about two months too late if you don't already have this wager in your pocket, but there are still reasons to take it. First, the market is trying to fool customers by offering the NBA Finals' highest scorer odds to SGA for a ridiculous -3500 or worse (it's -6000 at FanDuel, for example). If SGA is that strong of a favorite to score the most points, and if the Thunder are officially one of the biggest favorites in NBA Finals' history, that means the odds on MVP should be considerably higher in SGA's favor. But they're not, and that creates significant value. SGA led his team in scoring in every game of the Western Conference Finals and 14/16 games in the playoffs. Consider this bet as a parlay leg or take out some extra units; it's highly probable that he wins.

Pascal Siakam to make one three in every game (+360 at FanDuel)
Against the NBA's best defense, we must expect regression from the Indiana Pacers. At face value, they've proven they can score points against any opposition so far, but few players thrive against a resistance as stingy and well-coached as OKC. Interestingly, Pascal Siakam is one of the few players who has fared well in recent affairs. In his past three games vs. the Thunder, Siakam has nailed seven threes and at least one in every game. In the 2025 playoffs, he’s failed to get a long-ball in just five out of 16 contests, and he ended the series against New York making seven out of 12. Against a long OKC-defense that's constantly pestering enemy shooters, the 6'8" Siakam, who's averaging his best three-point percentage in his career this season (38.9%), offers value.

French Open: Men's Singles

Jack Draper wins 3-1 (+260 at FanDuel)
Draper looks at his best in Paris, which is a brand new reality. In previous outings Draper never got beyond the first round, but the Brit is clearly at a new level. In the third round he mowed down Joao Fonseca, one of the game's most exciting young players who, before their match, looked like a real threat to win the whole tournament. But Draper's exceptional serve and steady form (an astounding 93% win-rate on his first service games) permitted only eight games for the young Brazilian. Alexander Bublik is in a similar boat; this is the furthest he's gotten at Roland Garros is his 10-year career. The Kazakhstani's unorthodox form should throw off Draper at some point, but we like the Brit to keep his momentum going.

Jannik Sinner wins 3-0 (-180 at FanDuel)
The world's #1 has a long road ahead of him if he hopes to win his first French Open title. First, he'll have to deal with an old rival: Andrey Rublev and Sinner have a lot in common; two lanky, high-powered servers who can make just about any shot on the court. Of course, one has thrived more than the other as time passes, and Sinner is the obvious and strong favorite to pull off another victory (he leads their head-to-head series, 6-3). We're concerned that Rublev, who's had an easy slate and got a pass in the third round thanks to Arthur Fils' walkover loss, won't be ready for this version of Sinner. The Italian has obliterated every opponent so far, losing just 22 games and sweeping every match. Here comes another.

French Open: Women's Singles (early Tuesday)

Aryna Sabalenka wins 2-1 (+285 at DraftKings)
The bruising Belarusian and world's #1 just faced her first real test against Amanda Anisimova, but she still won in straight sets. It won't get any easier against Zheng Qinwen. Zheng won a gold medal at the Olympics last year in Paris and looks very comfortable on the clay of Roland Garros again. Liudmila Samsonova gave her a run for her money in the third round, but Zheng corrected early mistakes and rolled in the third set, winning it 6-3 and looking like an elite when it mattered most. Still, Sabalenka is at a different level, having not lost a set in her last six matches dating back to the Italian Open. Zheng should give her all she can handle, and her first set-loss in a while, but we'll stick with the world's best. 

Iga Swiatek wins 2-0 (-130 at DraftKings)
Elina Svitolina continues her incredible tear in 2025. The Ukrainian just got done beating Jasmine Paolini after surviving a second-set where she was down three games and still found a way to win in a tiebreaker. She blew her away in the third set, winning 6-1. Her momentum and exceptional form (she won 7/13 break points and six games in a row to beat Paolini) increases her chances of prolonging her next battle. Winning it is another story. Iga Swiatek got a little dose of her own medicine on Sunday, rivaling a top-form Elena Rybakina and only winning a single game in their first set. But the resolve of the Pole, who's won three straight titles at Roland Garros, was on full display when it needed to be and we love that momentum heading into Tuesday.

French Open Future

To Win the French Open: Jessica Pegula (+3500 at DraftKings)
If there's any dark horse that could actually win in Paris, it's Pegula. Flying far under the radar, the American has looked sensational on clay this season (11-4, 35-14 the past four years). Even in a struggling third round, she figured out Marketa Vondrousova and played like the savvier, more experienced veteran. At this point in Pegula's career, having yet to win a Grand Slam, not much can hurt the constantly underestimated 31-year-old. At her age she's seen it all and has no time to spare. And up until the first set against Vondrousova she's been dominant at Roland Garros. With Iga Swiatek playing below top-form and most of the draw looking vulnerable at times, we think the top prize is wide open this year. The resilient American is worth a look.

WNBA Future

WNBA Champion: Atlanta Dream (+5500 at Bovada) 
The betting world is only looking at a few teams to realistically win it all this year. That starts with the Liberty and Lynx, the two who battled last summer in the finals, and formidable foes like Indiana and Las Vegas. But there's a team that the association isn't taking seriously enough yet, and we see many buy signs. The Dream find themselves with a 5-2 record, including three road wins and a very well-balanced squad (5th in net rating). They're already top-3 offensively, below only the supersonic Liberty and Lynx 2.0, and their starting five is as legitimate as any in the W. They've also come back from large deficits a few times, showing rare team chemistry for a newly constructed roster. There's something about this team, and this price is just too juicy. 

Arraez is 8-13 vs. Logan Webb, Padres Hit .314 as a Team vs. Giants’ Starter

• Luis Arraez (Padres) vs. Logan Webb (Giants): 8-13, 3 RBI, 1 BB

• Gavin Sheets (Padres) vs. Logan Webb (Giants): 5-10, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

• Kerry Carpenter (Tigers) vs. Jonathan Cannon (White Sox): 4-7, 1 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1 K

• Colt Keith (Tigers) vs. Jonathan Cannon (White Sox): 4-7, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB

• Manny Machado (Padres) vs. Logan Webb (Giants): 13-35, 1 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 6 K

• Carlos Correa (Twins) vs. Luis Severino (Athletics): 5-16, 2 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K

• Sal Frelick (Brewers) vs. Brady Singer (Reds): 3-5, 1 3B, 1 RBI

• Rafael Devers (Red Sox) vs. Tyler Anderson (Angels): 3-7, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K

Draper Looking to Make it to 5th Quarterfinal of the Season

Name: Jack Draper
Ranking: 5th seed at French Open (career-high 5th in ATP Rankings)
2025 Record: 22-6
Today’s Matchup: Alexander Bublik

Past 5 Matches vs. Top-25 Opponents

• Rome QF: Lost to No. 3 Alcaraz 4-6, 4-6

• Madrid Final: Lost to No. 15 Ruud 5-7, 6-3, 4-6

• Madrid SF: Beat No. 11 Musetti 6-3, 7-6(4)

• Madrid R16: Beat No. 12 Paul 6-2, 6-2

• Indian Wells Final: Beat No. 13 Rune 6-2, 6-2

Matchup

• Draper has won both times these two have faced off in straight sets (2024 and 2021), but three of the four sets have gone to tiebreaks. Draper is having a career year, winning in Indian Wells and beating eight top-25 players already. Bublik is just 7-13 on the season and is currently ranked 62nd (he made it to a career-high 17th last May).

Bets to Watch

• Moneyline: Draper -1250, Bublik +740

• Total Games (33.5): Over -110, Under -120

• Total Sets (3.5): Over -108, Under -126

• Game Spread: Draper -6.5 (-140), Bublik +6.5 (-140)

• Bublik to Win at Least 1 Set: Yes -108, No -126

In the News 

• The Rockies continue to set (losing) records and are now 9-50.

• Kansas City is reportedly calling up the former sixth overall pick.

• The top two seeds in the NCAA baseball tournament were knocked out in the regionals yesterday.

• Two U.S. men made it to the French Open quarterfinals, ending 21-year drought.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• All Day: French Open coverage on TNT

• 12pm: No. 7 Tennessee vs. No. 6 Texas in NCAA softball on ESPN

• 7:10pm: Brewers vs. Reds on FS1

• 9pm: No. 6 LSU vs. Little Rock in NCAA baseball on ESPN2

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