10 College Football Bets to Watch as Conference Title Games Near

We also look at where spread bettors have their money today

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: The college football conference championship game races

2. Bets to Watch: UGA is 0-13-1 ATS as a favorite of 38+ points in the Smart era

3. Game of the Day: Oregon hosts USC with CFP spot on the line

4. By the Numbers: Where bettors see 12 ranked college football teams, NBA matchups

5. Overtime: Will Joe Burrow be back in action tomorrow?

1. Leading Off

Only two Power 4 teams can feel truly confident about their places in conference championship games: No. 2 Indiana only has to beat 2-9 Purdue to advance to the Big Ten title game, while 4-7 West Virginia is the last team No. 5 Texas Tech needs to dispatch to have a chance to win the Big 12. The other six slots are still up for grabs.

No. 1 Ohio State controls its own destiny in the Big Ten (vs. Rutgers, @ No. 18 Michigan), No. 3 Texas A&M heads to the SEC title game with a win at No. 17 Texas next week (they play Samford today), and No. 11 BYU earns a Big 12 championship game berth with wins at Cincinnati and vs. UCF. The ACC has four one-loss teams, with No. 16 Georgia Tech (vs. Pittsburgh today) and No. 19 Virginia (vs. Virginia Tech next week) each having just one conference game remaining, while Pittsburgh and SMU still have two games left.

On the other end of the spectrum, Florida State is now 7-16 over the past two seasons after falling in a listless 11-point effort at NC State last night. The 5-6 Seminoles are a reminder of the how long the college football season really is, as after their shocking upset of then-No. 8 Alabama in Week 1 all was lost for the Crimson Tide and Florida State was back. Now the Seminoles need a win at Florida next week just to be eligible for a mediocre bowl game, while Alabama is likely headed to the College Football Playoff.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Bets to Watch

With Big 12 Title Game on the Line, BYU and Cincinnati Should Score

By Jack Dougherty

Cincinnati vs. BYU over 55.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
Cincinnati has been an over machine in Big 12 play. Five of the Bearcats’ seven Big 12 games have gone over this total with an average of…

3. Game of the Day

Oregon, USC Face Off in CFP Elimination Game in Eugene with Ducks as Big Favorites

The stakes for this game are high, as No. 7 Oregon needs a win to stay in the College Football Playoff and No. 15 USC needs an upset to have any chance and sneaking their way into the field (ESPN gives the Trojans a 20% chance). The line has ballooned to 10.5 points even though the teams share a lone high-quality win against Iowa.

No. 15 USC (8-2, 6-1 Big Ten) vs. No. 7 Oregon (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten)
3:30pm on CBS

The Odds

• Spread: USC (+10.5, -120), Oregon (-10.5, -102)

  • USC: 5-5, ORE: 6-4

• Moneyline: USC +295, Oregon -370

• Total (59.5): Over -105, Under -115

  • USC: 5-5, ORE: 5-5

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• Oregon QB Dante Moore: 185-254 (72.8%), 2,190 yards, 21 TD, 5 TD, 168.6 rating

• USC QB Jayden Maiava: 201-301 (66.8%), 2,868 yards, 18 TD, 6 INT, 162.6 rating

• Oregon RB Noah Whittington: 76 carries, 623 yards, 5 TD, 11 receptions, 48 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD

• USC WR Makai Lemon: 71 receptions, 1,090 yards, 8 TD, 0 fumbles

• Oregon LB Bryce Boettcher: 77 tackles (30 solo), 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, 1 interception, 3 pass deflections

• USC LB Eric Gentry: 64 tackles (45 solo), 3 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, 1 pass deflection

4. By the Numbers

Where Bettors Have Money in 12 College Football Matchups Featuring Ranked Teams

CFB

• No. 13 Miami (-17.5, -114) vs. Virginia Tech (+17.5, -106): 62% of the money and 52% of the bets are with the Hurricanes

  • MIA: 6-4, VT: 2-8

• No. 22 Missouri (+6.5, -118) vs. No. 8 Oklahoma (-6.5, -104): 77% of the money and 73% of the bets are with the Sooners

  • MIZ: 6-4, OU: 6-4

• Kentucky (+8.5, -110) vs. No. 14 Vanderbilt (-8.5, -110): 68% of the money and bets are with the Commodores

  • UK: 5-5, VAN: 8-2

• No. 24 Tulane (-9.5, -115) vs. Temple (+9.5, -105): 79% of the money and 77% of the bets are with the Green Wave

  • TUL: 5-5, TEM: 7-3

• Kansas State (+17.5, -115) vs. No. 12 Utah (-17.5, -105): 67% of the money and 59% of the bets are with the Utes

  • KST: 4-6, UTA: 8-2

• No. 18 Michigan (-13.5, -120) vs. Maryland (+13.5, -102): 62% of the money and 58% of the bets are with the Wolverines

  • UM: 3-7, MD: 5-5

• TCU (+1.5, -114) vs. No. 23 Houston (-1.5, -105): 53% of the money and 71% of the bets are with the Cougars

  • TCU: 4-6, HOU: 7-3

• Pittsburgh (+2.5, -110) vs. No. 16 Georgia Tech (-2.5, -110): 75% of the money and 78% of the bets are with the Yellow Jackets

  • PIT: 7-3, GT: 6-4

• No. 20 Tennessee (-3.5, -118) vs. Florida (+3.5, -104): 61% of the money and 69% of the bets are with the Volunteers

  • UT: 4-6, UF: 4-6

• No. 21 Illinois (-8.5, -110) vs. Wisconsin (+8.5, -110): 63% of the money and 66% of the bets are with the Illini

  • ILL: 7-3, WIS: 5-5

• No. 11 BYU (-2.5, -118) vs. Cincinnati (+2.5, -104): 80% of the money and 82% of the bets are with the Cougars

  • BYU: 7-3, CIN: 6-4

• No. 25 Arizona State (-7.5, -106) vs. Colorado (+7.5, -114): 53% of the money and 66% of the bets are with the Sun Devils

  • ASU: 5-5, COL: 4-6

NBA

• Clippers (-2, -106) vs. Hornets (+2, -114): 60% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Los Angeles

  • LAC: 4-11, CHA: 7-8

• Knicks (-1.5, -110) vs. Magic (+1.5, -110): 79% of the money and 72% of the bets are with New York

  • NYK: 8-6, ORL: 8-8

• Wizards (+12.5, -110) vs. Bulls (-12.5, -110): 62% of the money and bets are with Chicago

  • WAS: 3-10-1, CHI: 8-5-1

• Grizzlies (+2.5, -112) vs. Mavericks (-2.5, -108): 69% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Memphis

  • MEM: 5-11, DAL: 7-9

5. Overtime

In the News 

• Ole Miss is officially counting down to when coach Lane Kiffin is going to announce whether he’s coming back: One week from today, a day after their Egg Bowl matchup against Mississippi State. The awkward announcement about the announcement will probably increase, not decrease, attention on the decision — but the Rebels have a bye this week anyway.

• The Bengals are 3-7 and need a miracle to get to the playoffs, so will they rush back starting quarterback Joe Burrow from toe surgery? Burrow was originally slated to be out until December, but was a full participant in practice multiple days this week. He’s questionable for Cincinnati’s matchup against the Patriots on Sunday.

• Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is going to decide if he’s going to retire after the season. According to the Associated Press, that likely means sometimes before March 11, when the league year begins. His brother, former Eagles center Jason Kelce, announced his retirement on March 4.

• The New York Liberty finally found a coach after letting former coach Sandy Brondello’s contact expire one year after winning a title. Longtime Golden State Warriors assistant Chris DeMarco is headed to Brooklyn but will stay with his NBA team for an undetermined amount of time until starting his job with one of the WNBA’s premier teams.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 12pm: No. 22 Missouri vs. No. 8 Oklahoma [CFB] on ABC

• 1pm: Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings on NHL Network

• 2pm: No. 20 Kentucky vs. No. 21 Louisville [NCAAW] on CW Network

• 3:30pm: No. 15 USC vs. No. 7 Oregon [CFB] on CBS

• 4pm: TCU vs. No. 23 Houston [CFB] on FOX

• 5pm: Knicks vs. Magic on NBA TV

• 7pm: Pittsburgh vs. No. 16 Georgia Tech [CFB] on ESPN

• 8pm: No. 11 BYU vs. Cincinnati [CFB] on FOX