In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Today was supposed to feature a matchup with huge CFP implications

2. Bets to Watch: In road games where Miami was favored by more than a TD, Cristobal is 1-5 ATS

3. Game of the Day: First Game 7 in the World Series since 2019

4. Soccer: Liverpool has just one win in past 7 matches

5. Public Money: Ranked college football favorites have big spreads, bettor support

6. Overtime: The governor who got the athletic director fired

1. Leading Off

This was supposed to be one of the games of the year: Penn State at Ohio State on Big Noon Kickoff, two title contenders battling as the calendar turns to November. Instead, it's just another box to check for the defending champs.

No. 1 Ohio State faces Penn State today with not much to worry about. The Buckeyes are undefeated and rolling toward another playoff run, and their Big Ten schedule that looked brutal in August now looks like a cakewalk. Penn State was ranked second to start the season and figured to be the team that could challenge Ohio State in the Big Ten, but that only lasted a month.

The Nittany Lions are 3-4 and being led by an interim coach after firing James Franklin three weeks ago. They've lost four straight games, including defeats to Oregon, UCLA and Northwestern that cost Franklin his job. Their starting quarterback Drew Allar is out for the season. Now they have to visit Columbus with basically no hope.

This is the reality for the Buckeyes this year. Their toughest regular season test in the conference was supposed to be Penn State, but the Nittany Lions collapsed before they could make it a game. Michigan is supposed to challenge them in The Game, but it's still unclear how good the Wolverines are without any marquee wins. Ohio State's path looks pretty clear for an undefeated regular season and trip back to the Big Ten Championship Game.

Only six teams, including Ohio State, are still undefeated heading into Week 10. Indiana is another, which tells you everything about how this Big Ten season has gone. The Buckeyes won it all last year and they're cruising again this year. Penn State's nightmare will likely made Ohio State’s dream season easier.

What we’re watching today:

• No. 9 Vanderbilt vs. No. 20 Texas: The Commodores are having a historic season and head to Austin looking to stay in the playoff and SEC title hunt. Arch Manning has different ideas.

• No. 5 Georgia vs. Florida: Georgia needs a win to stay in the SEC race. The Gators are still talented despite being coachless.

• No. 18 Oklahoma vs. 14 Tennessee: The Sooners travel to Knoxville for a primetime SEC showdown that could shake up the conference standings.

—Abe Rakov

2. Bets to Watch

Even with Arch Starting, Points Should Be Hard to Come By in Vandy vs. Texas Matchup

By Jack Dougherty

Texas vs. Vanderbilt under 47 points (-110 at Bet365)
The big story heading into this game is Arch Manning’s health. The Texas quarterback is set to start, but he’s coming off of a concussion. This is shaping up to be…

3. Game of the Day

Ohtani Could Be Jack of All Trades for Dodgers in World Series Game 7 in Toronto

Tonight we’ll get the first Game 7 in a World Series since 2019, when the Nationals beat the Astros. Max Scherzer started that game for the Nationals and is starting this one for the Blue Jays. It’s just the sixth Game 7 in the past 20 seasons. The Dodgers were heavily favored to win a second title in a row when the season began, lost momentum during the year, then became heavy favorites again during the playoffs. Toronto couldn’t close out the series last night, but still has a chance for its first World Series title since 1993.

Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Game 7
8pm ET on FOX

• Spread: Dodgers (-1.5, +114), Blue Jays (+1.5, -137)

• Moneyline: Dodgers -154, Blue Jays +130

• Total (7.5): Over -115, Under -105

Public Money

• Spread: 61% of the money is with Toronto but 57% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Moneyline: 62% of the money and 57% of the bets are with Toronto

• Total: 78% of the money and 63% of the bets are on the under

Pitching Matchup

• Dodgers are undecided — Tyler Glasnow is next in the rotation, but he closed out Game 6

• Max Scherzer (Blue Jays): 1-0, 4.50 ERA

  • 10/27 @ Dodgers: 4.1 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 79 pitches

  • 10/16 @ Seattle: 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 2 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 5 K, 86 pitches

4. Soccer

Six of Past 7 Liverpool Games Have Totaled Under 3.5 Goals

By Sam Farley

Brighton vs. Leeds — Both teams to score (-140 at BetMGM)

• No team in the Premier League has been in more games where both teams scored than Brighton, who have seen it in eight of their nine EPL games.

• Brighton are yet to keep a clean sheet this season, while Leeds are averaging a goal scored per game.

Arsenal win to nil vs. Burnley (-121 at BetRivers)

• Arsenal are top of the Premier League and riding a four-game win streak. Their success has been built on defense, with the team conceding just three goals across nine games this season.

• Burnley have a terrible record against Arsenal at Turf Moor, picking up just two points from the previous six games.

Crystal Palace vs. Brentford over 2.5 goals (-130 at BetRivers)

• Crystal Palace have seen four of their previous five EPL games finish with over 2.5 goals, and they’ve been giving up an average of one goal per game.

• Brentford have been a part of games with over 2.5 goals in three of four away matches this season and have Igor Thiago up front, who sits second in the Premier League goalscoring charts.

Fulham to win vs. Wolves (-115 at DraftKings)

• Fulham are on a bad run, losing four straight games, but have a “get-right” match here and have won 50% of their games at Craven Cottage this season.

• Wolves are the only team yet to get a win this season and have the league’s second-worst goal difference, giving up more than two goals per game on average — while having only scored seven in nine games.

Wolves’ Joao Gomes to be shown a card (+220 at FanDuel)

• Gomes has been a magnet for committing fouls this season with 20 already, giving him an average for 2.56 fouls committed per 90 minutes on the field.

• He’s already racked up four yellow cards this season across all competitions and given the “can’t lose” stakes of this game, has a high chance of doing it again.

Manchester United to win vs. Nottingham Forest (+110 at Caesars)

• Man Utd are on a real run and are now one of the Premier League’s most in-form teams. They’re full of confidence and have the second best xG (expected goals) in the EPL.

• Nottingham Forest have lost four games in a row in the league and they’ve been letting in a lot of goals, with seven in their last three in league play.

Manchester United’s Benjamin Sesko to score or assist (+105 at Bet365)

• Sesko is quietly finding real form with two goals and an assist across his past four Premier League games.

• Only two teams have given up more goals than Forest and with Sesko not only finishing chances but bringing Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha into play, he has a strong chance of contributing again.

Liverpool vs. Aston Villa under 3.5 goals (-160 at Caesars)

• There have been under 3.5 goals in eight of Aston Villa’s nine games this season.

• Liverpool have seen under 3.5 goals in six of their previous seven games and with Arne Slot on the hot seat after just one win in seven, we can expect his team to focus on defense.

5. Public Money

With Only 3 Ranked-on-Ranked Matchups, Big Spreads Expected in College Football Today

6. Overtime

In the News 

• Blue Jays starter Max Scherzer is set to become the only living pitcher to start two World Series Game 7s. Scherzer started Game 7 for the Nationals in 2019, an eventual win — though he left the game behind.

• Jaguars rookie Travis Hunter suffered a non-contact injury in practice and will be placed on injured reserve. Hunter has 28 catches for 298 yards and a touchdown on offense and 15 tackles and three pass breakups on defense this season.

• The Dolphins fired General Manager Chris Grier and have decided to keep coach Mike McDaniel at least through the end of the season, reports ESPN. Champ Kelly will take over as interim general manager, and Miami is supposedly not a seller in the upcoming trade deadline.

• LSU Athletic Director Scott Woodward stepped down after the scathing rebuke from his state’s governor, and interim athletic director Verge Ausberry will hire the next football coach.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 11am: Burnley vs. Arsenal on USA

• 12pm: No. 9 Vanderbilt vs. No. 20 Texas on ABC

• 1pm: Arizona State vs. Iowa State on TNT

• 3:30pm: No. 5 Georgia vs. Florida on ABC (or No. 13 Texas Tech vs. Kansas State on FOX)

• 7pm: Warriors vs. Pacers on NBA TV (or Maple Leafs vs. Flyers on NHL Network)

• 7:30pm: No. 18 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Tennessee on ABC (or No. 23 USC vs. Nebraska on NBC)

• 8pm: Dodgers vs. Blue Jays for Game 7 on FOX

• 10pm: Mavericks vs. Pistons on Peacock

• 10:15pm: No. 17 Cincinnati vs. No. 24 Utah