Insights on the NBA Cup Final Four + Analyzing College Bowl Game Futures

We also have three players to watch tonight across the NBA and college basketball

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: NBA Cup final four

2. The Rundown: Three NFL teams can punch their tickets to the postseason in Week 15

3. Game of the Day: Wemby is expected back for Spurs for showdown with Thunder

4. By the Numbers: Gonzaga is 8-2 ATS early in the season

5. Overtime: Do the Thunder care about records?

1. Leading Off

There are four teams left in the NBA Cup but all eyes will be on the Thunder, who lost to the Bucks in last year’s edition before winning the NBA championship. Oklahoma City beat Phoenix by 49 in its quarterfinal matchup before heading to Las Vegas, so there’s zero indication that the Thunder aren’t taking the mid-season tournament seriously.

The Thunder and Spurs face off in the Western Conference’s half of the bracket, while the Knicks and Magic kick things off in Sin City for the right to represent the Eastern Conference in Tuesday’s final. Unsurprisingly, Oklahoma City is the heavy favorite to win the tournament at -250, followed by the Knicks (+400), Spurs (+800) and Magic (+1000).

Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama is expected to be back in action for the marquee game, but is likely to face a minutes restriction after 12 games away.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. In just a few days, Sportmoney turns into Sportspage. You’ll still get the insights, data, and analysis you’ve come to expect, plus even more. Sportmoney will become our premium sports betting product and will relaunch in 2026, so stay tuned. Starting Monday, look for Sportspage in your inbox!

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2. The Rundown

Three NFL Teams Can Clinch a Playoff Berth in Week 15 After 9 Teams Have Already Been Knocked Out

• Nine NFL teams have been eliminated from the playoffs but none have clinched a spot in the postseason. CBS Sports runs through the scenarios three teams have to guarantee playoff spots in Week 15. Only one franchise can clinch a division, but two others can punch their ticket to the postseason with a win and/or some help.

• ESPN ranked the 25 NBA stars under the age of 25. Victor Wembanyama is No. 1 for the second year in a row, but the most significant climbers were Cade Cunningham and Amen Thompson, who were 13th and 22nd last year, respectively. The new No. 25? Houston’s Reed Sheppard, who is averaging 12.9 points, 3.1 rebounds and 3.2 assists so far this season.

• One of the longest-tenured coaches in college football is stepping down, as Utah’s Kyle Whittingham is leaving the program after the Las Vegas bowl on December 31st after 21 years in charge. Wittingham has 177 wins with the Utes, good for third among active FBS coaches. He’s been with the program in some capacity since 1994. Utah defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley, who has been on staff since 2008, was named head coach in waiting in 2024 so Wittingham’s decision is not expected to spin the college coaching carousel.

• Tom Brady is 48-years-old, but he said he “certainly could” play in the NFL again as 44-year-old Philip Rivers might get his chance this weekend. The problem? Brady says because he’s a co-owner of the Raiders he isn’t allowed to suit up anymore. “I can’t unretire, but I'm very excited to watch Philip play because I just think it's very cool,” he said on Fox Sports’ The Herd.

• WNBA superstar Caitlin Clark says the WNBA’s collective bargaining negotiations are “not something that can be messed up,” calling this the “biggest moment in the history“ of the league. The players and owners agreed to extend the deadline again, this time to January 9th, but its unclear how close they are to an agreement. WNBA veteran Kelsey Plum told the Associated Press, “it’s been disheartening, frustration in the negotiation and how far away we are.”

3. Game of the Day

Wembanyama is Expected Back in Limited Minutes for Spurs in NBA Cup Semifinal vs. Seemingly Unstoppable Thunder

Victor Wembanyama is expected to return to the Spurs lineup for their NBA Cup semifinal matchup against the Thunder, but will his reportedly limited minutes be enough against the the juggernaut that is Oklahoma City? “I would expect an early sub and not his normal minutes,” Spurs coach Mitch Johnson said. The Thunder just beat the Suns by 49 points in the quarterfinal, have won 16 in a row, and are 24-1 on the season. Wembanyama has missed the past 12 games for the 17-7 Spurs, but San Antonio managed to win nine games in that stretch without its superstar on the floor.

Spurs (17-7) vs. Thunder (24-1)
9pm on Prime Video

The Odds

• Spread: SA (+10.5, -114), OKC (-10.5, -106)

  • 68% of the money and 61% of the bets are with the Thunder

  • ATS | SA: 12-10-2, OKC: 14-11-0

• Moneyline: SA: +350, OKC -450

• Total (224.5): Over -114, Under -106

  • SA: 14-10, OKC: 13-12

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• SA G De’Aaron Fox | Points: 20.5 (24.0 - 20, 14, 25, 31, 29), Reb: 3.5 (3.8 - 4, 4, 5, 5, 4), Ast: 5.5 (6.3 - 3, 7, 9, 5, 4)

• SA G Stephon Castle | Points: 15.5 (18.2 - 30, 18, 4, 13, 23), Reb: 4.5 (6.1 - 10, 5, 0, 9, 10), Ast: 5.5 (7.3 - 6, 5, 5, 6, 10)

• OKC G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Points: 31.5 (32.6 - 28, 33, 38, 26, 37), Reb: 4.5 (4.6 - 2, 5, 3, 4, 3), Ast: 6.5 (6.5 - 8, 6, 4, 5, 8)

• OKC C Chet Holmgren | Points: 16.5 (18.8 - 24, 25, 15, 21, 19), Reb: 7.5 (8.0 - 8, 9, 8, 8, 9), Ast: 1.5 (1.7 - 2, 1, 1, 3, 1)

*Stats listed in parentheses are season average followed by past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

4. By the Numbers

Knicks are 16-8 ATS, Both No. 17 Arkansas and No. 16 Texas Tech are 3-6 to the Under

NBA

• Knicks (17-7) vs. Magic (15-10)

  • NYK (-5, -110), ORL (+5, -110): 67% of the money and 60% of the bets are with the Knicks

    • ATS | NYK: 16-8 ORL: 12-13

  • Total (223.5) | NYK: 12-12, ORL: 13-12

MCBB

• No. 17 Arkansas (+1.5, -105) vs. No. 16 Texas Tech (-1.5, -115): 51% of the money and 57% of the bets are with the Red Raiders

  • ATS | ARK: 6-3, TTU: 4-5

  • Total (154.5) | ARK: 3-6, TTU: 3-6

• No 23 Nebraska (+10.5, -120) vs. No. 13 Illinois (-10.5, -102): 54% of the money and 71% of the bets are with the Cornhuskers

  • ATS | NEB: 6-4, ILL: 5-5

  • Total (158.5) | NEB: 4-6, ILL: 3-7

• No. 19 Kansas (+2.5, -114) vs. NC State (-2.5, -106): 71% of the money and 83% of the bets are with the Jayhawks

  • ATS | KU: 6-4, NCST: 5-5

  • Total (150.5) | KU: 2-8, NCST: 5-5

• Indiana (+3.5, -110) vs. Kentucky (-3.5, -110): 65% of the money and 51% of the bets are with the Wildcats

  • ATS | IND: 6-4, UK: 4-6

  • Total (157.5) | IND: 6-4, UK: 5-5

• No. 1 Arizona (-1.5, -106) vs. No. 12 Alabama (+1.5, -114): 72% of the money and 75% of the bets are with the Wildcats

  • ATS | ARI: 5-3, ALA: 5-4

  • Total (178.5) | ARI: 4-4, ALA: 5-4

• No. 28 UCLA (+10.5, -114) vs. No. 8 Gonzaga (-10.5, -106): 88% of the money and 80% of the bets are with the Bulldogs

  • ATS | UCLA: 3-6, GON: 8-2

  • Total (148.5) | UCLA: 4-5, GON: 4-6

Players to Watch

• Knicks G Jalen Brunson (vs. Magic)

  • Points: 29.5 (28.3 - 35, 30, 33, 26, 15), Reb: 3.5 (3.1 - 3, 2, 2, 2, 2), Ast: 6.5 (6.3 - 4, 9, 4, 5, 11)

  • Opponent (ORL - W1) | Points: 113.4 (7th), Reb: 42.2 (9th), Ast: 24.0 (3rd)

• Magic G Desmond Bane (vs. Knicks)

  • Points: 20.5 (19.0 - 37, 16, 5, 14, 37), Reb: 4.5 (4.4 - 6, 6, 0, 3, 6), Ast: 4.5 (4.5 - 5, 4, 3, 6, 5)

  • Opponent (NYK - W4) | Points: 111.9 (5th), Reb: 40.8 (5th), Ast: 25.1 (8th)

• Texas Tech G JT Toppin (vs. No. 17 Arkansas)

  • Points: 20.5 (20.8 - 11, 27, 19, 15, 21), Reb: 10.5 (11.5 - 15, 9, 16, 8, 9)

  • Opponent (ARK - W2) | Points: 87.6 (42nd), Reb: 38.9 (116th)

*Stats listed in parentheses are season average followed by past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

5. Overtime

Quotable

“Absolutely. Winning matters. And no matter what form it looks like to me. So absolutely.” — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on if the Thunder are interested in going after the NBA record of 73 wins set in the 2015-2016 season by the Warriors. Oklahoma City tied Golden State with a 24-1 start to the season. During their current 16 game winning streak, the Thunder have won eight games by 20 or more points.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 10am: Chelsea vs. Everton on USA

• 12pm: No. 17 Arkansas vs. No. 16 Texas Tech [MCBB] on ESPN2

• 12:30pm: Ducks vs. Devils on NHL Network

• 3pm: Army vs. Navy [CFB] on CBS

• 5:30pm: Knicks vs. Magic on Prime Video

• 9pm: Spurs vs. Thunder on Prime Video

• 9:30pm: No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 12 Alabama [MCBB] on ESPN

• 11:30pm: No. 25 UCLA vs. No. 8 Gonzaga [MCBB] on ESPN