Insights on 19 NBA Bets and a First Look at NFL Wild Card Lines

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: NFL Wild Card weekend matchups

• NBA: Milwaukee is 25th and Toronto is 28th on offense over their past 5

• NCAAM: Previews of today’s four biggest games

• NBA: Morant, Smart, Kennard and Kawamura have all been ruled out for Grizzlies

• NBA: Portland is 3-8 straight-up following a win

• Overtime: Geno Smith earned a $6 million bonus from the Seahawks

The NFL playoffs are set and Wild Card weekend begins on Saturday. With their loss to the Lions last night, the Vikings went from playing for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and earning a bye to having to fly to LA to face the Rams on Monday Night Football. Here are the early FanDuel lines for the opening games:

• Chargers (-2.5, -128) vs. Texans (+2.5, +104)

  • Moneyline: Chargers -156, Texans +132

  • Total (43.5): Over/Under -110

• Steelers (+9.5, -110) vs. Ravens (-9.5, -110)

  • Moneyline: Ravens -500, Steelers +385

  • Total (45.5): Over/Under -110

• Broncos (+8.5, -105) vs. Bills (-8.5, -115)

  • Moneyline: Bills -460, Broncos +360

  • Total (47.5): Over/Under -110

• Packers (+4.5, -105) vs. Eagles (-4.5, -115)

  • Moneyline: Eagles -250, Packers +205

  • Total (46.5): Over -112, Under -108

• Commanders (+3.5, -115) vs. Buccaneers (-3.5, -105)

  • Moneyline: Buccaneers -180, Commanders +152

  • Total (50.5): Over -105, Under -115

• Vikings (-2.5, -108), vs. Rams (+2.5, -112)

  • Moneyline: Vikings -134, Rams +116

  • Total (47.5): Over -106, Under -114

In today’s newsletter, Chris, Craig and Jack cover the NBA, and we have previews of four men’s college basketball games.

— Abe Rakov

New York Beat Orlando 3 Times in December by an Average of 16 Points a Game

By Chris Farley

Knicks -11.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
This is a terrible spot for the Orlando Magic, but the situation is even tougher than you think. They hosted Utah last night, and Monday will mark Orlando's fourth game in just five days. Even worse, every single matchup required travel. Orlando is a very formidable team, even with their slew of injuries, and they're maintaining a solid lead in the Southeast division, but this is asking a lot. Even when Orlando was healthier, the Knicks have had the Magic's number this season, beating them three straight times in December by an average margin of 16 points per game. New York is also coming off an embarrassing home loss against Chicago on Saturday. This is inflated for good reason.

Knicks' team total over 110.5 points (-110 at MyBookie)
Few offenses have been as potent as New York, even when they're facing an above-average defense. In December, the Knicks were the 3rd-most efficient offense and 5th among all teams in points per game, averaging a healthy 117.9. The Magic will be exhausted heading into this showdown, their fourth meeting of the season against the 24-12 Knicks. While New York was held to just 100 and 108 points in their last two battles, that just means we get a better number. Plus, last time these squads faced off at Madison Square Garden, the home team dropped 121 points. Don't overthink this.

Bucks -7 (-105 at DraftKings)
Both the Bucks and Raptors haven't looked crisp lately, losers of four out of their last five. On one hand, it's hard to have faith in either one of these programs — Milwaukee is 25th and Toronto is 28th on offense over their past five games. Although in these circumstances it's important to consider regression, especially for the more capable roster. Competing in Toronto is never an easy spot, but at least the Bucks haven't let down on defense (7th over their past five games). No team rated lower than the Raptors in December, and they remain at the bottom. They've also become an ATS dud (covering just twice in their past seven contests).

Giannis Antetokounmpo under 30.5 points (-122 at DraftKings)
Lately, Giannis has been carrying too much of the Bucks' load. On many nights he's capable, but lately the "Greek freak" isn't getting much help at all. Damian Lillard hasn't shot better than 33.3% from beyond the arc since mid-December and he's just 35.4% from the floor in their past five games. Khris Middleton is inconsistent, and their starting offense is graded lower than any other unit in the NBA over the same five-game span. Fortunately, this is the perfect matchup for Giannis to take a back seat, since no defense has been worse than Toronto (30th over their past five). 

Bulls +3 (-108 at DraftKings)
Thanks to Zach LaVine and a burgeoning Bulls' defense, the Windy City franchise looks as good as they have all season (which isn't saying much, but you get our point). Off one of their biggest wins of the season, a 139-126 victory over the high-powered Knicks, Chicago is a top-11 net rated program over their past four games, a span where they only lost once. The Spurs, led by some spectacular recent performances by Victor Wembanyama, have been impressive. They're also on a brutal stretch, in nonstop travel spots since December 21st, and are getting too much love after their bout with Denver. Visiting Chicago won't conjure the same energy.

Victor Wembanyama over 27.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)
Wembanyama calmed down in his rematch against the Nuggets on Saturday night, scoring only 20 after a dazzling 35-point, 18-rebound showing in a win at Denver the day prior. In any case, while the Bulls' defense has been much improved, top-10 by many metrics, they continue to struggle in the paint. Wembanyama is known to chuck threes, but he's also a dominant rebounder and second-chance opportunist. Even during their recent stretch of wins, the Bulls rank 26th in paint-defense, and season-long they permit more points than any other program (56.5). We like the big-man to catch fire once again.

Minnesota, 2-12 Against the Spread, Faces Ohio State (-5.5) in Big Ten Tilt

Ohio State (9-5, 1-2 Big Ten) vs. Minnesota (8-6, 0-3 Big Ten)

• Spread: Ohio State -5.5 (-102) vs. Minnesota +5.5 (-120)

  • Ohio State 9-5, Minnesota 2-12

  • 70% of the spread money is with OSU

• Moneyline: Ohio State -210, Minnesota +176

  • Ohio State 9-5, Minnesota 8-6

• Total (137.5): Over -105, Under -115

  • Ohio State 6-8, Minnesota 6-8

• Players to Watch

  • Ohio State — Bruce Thornton: 16.9 points/game and 4.6 assists/game; Devin Royal: 7.4 rebounds/game

  • Minnesota — Dawson Garcia: 19.1 points/game and 7.2 rebounds/game; Lu’Cye Patterson: 3.9 assists/game

Wisconsin (11-3, 1-2 Big Ten) vs. Rutgers (8-6, 1-2 Big Ten)

• Spread: Wisconsin -2.5 (-102), Rutgers +2.5 (-120)

  • Wisconsin 8-6, Rutgers 5-9

  • 54% of the spread money is with Rugters, 65% of the spread bets are with Wisconsin

• Moneyline: Wisconsin -130, Rutgers +108

  • Wisconsin 11-3, Rutgers 8-6

• Total (156.5): Over -105, Under -115

  • Wisconsin 11-3, Rutgers 8-6

• Players to Watch

  • Wisconsin — John Tonje: 18.6 points/game; Max Klesmit: 3.0 assists/game; Nolan Winter: 6.1 rebounds/game

  • Rutgers — Dylan Harper: 22.8 points/game and 4.8 rebounds/game; Ace Bailey: 7.7 rebounds/game

South Florida (8-6, 1-0 American) vs. Wichita State (10-4, 0-1 American)

• Spread (-110): Wichita State -8.5, South Florida +8.5

  • Wichita State 6-7, South Florida 4-9

  • 67% of the spread money is with Wichita State

• Moneyline: Wichita State -400, South Florida +310

  • Wichita State 9-4, South Florida 7-6

• Total (154.5): Over/Under -110

  • Wichita State 6-7, South Florida 6-7

• Players to Watch

  • Wichita State — Justin Hill: 14.8 points/game and 3.3 rebounds/game; Quincy Ballard: 8.2 rebounds/game

  • South Florida — Jayden Reid: 12.4 points/game and 4.4 assists/game; Jamille Reynolds: 7.7 rebounds/game

TCU (8-5, 1-1 Big 12) vs. No. 14 Houston (10-3, 2-0 Big 12)

• Spread: Houston -18.5 (-112), TCU +18.5 (-108)

  • Houston 7-6, TCU 4-9

  • 51% of the spread money is with Houston

• Moneyline: Houston -4000, TCU +1400

  • Houston 10-3, TCU 8-5

• Total (128.5): Over -105, Under -115

  • Houston 5-8, TCU 6-7

• Players to Watch

  • Houston — L.J. Cryer: 14.6 points/game; Milos Uzan: 5.2 assists/game; J’Wan Roberts: 7.0 rebounds/game

  • TCU — Noah Reynolds: 11.2 points/game; Frankie Collins: 4.4 assists/game; Ernest Udeh Jr.: 8.9 rebounds/game

Amid Butler Drama, Heat Gave Up 264 Points in Past 2 Games

By Jack Dougherty

Dereck Lively II 4+ assists (+145 at DraftKings)
The Mavericks have struggled to make up for Luka Doncic’s playmaking in his absence. Dallas has averaged just 21.6 assists per game since Doncic went down with a calf injury, which would be the lowest mark in the NBA if extrapolated for the whole season. Surprisingly, Lively leads the Mavs in potential assists per game (7.5) during this stretch without Doncic. The center has reached this line in three of the past five games he played and Doncic didn’t, so there’s some value here.

Scotty Pippen Jr. double-double (+470 at FanDuel)
This is a bet based on opportunity. The Grizzlies are completely decimated heading into Monday night’s game against the Mavericks, especially at the guard positions. Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard and Yuki Kawamura have all been ruled out, and Desmond Bane is listed as questionable. Memphis might have only three healthy guards available for this matchup, so Pippen will play a ton of minutes and serve as the team’s primary playmaker all night. Pippen already has six double-doubles this season and four came without Morant in the lineup.

Anthony Edwards under 29.5 points + assists (-115 at DraftKings)
This is a scary button to click after Edwards put up 53 points and nine 3s in his last game against the Pistons, but that’s created some value on this under. Before his offensive explosion against Detroit, Edwards had gone under this line in nine of his previous 10 games. This is also a tough matchup against the Clippers, which give up the fourth-fewest points (20.77) and the sixth-fewest assists per game (4.39) to opposing shooting guards. In two games against Los Angeles this season, Edwards put up just 24 and 20 points + assists and shot a combined 12/35 (34.3%) from the field. 

Kawhi Leonard under 20.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 at DraftKings)
Leonard made his season debut Saturday and put up 16 points + rebounds + assists in only 19 minutes of action. It’s hard to imagine him playing much more just two days after his debut as he works his way back from a torn ACL. As for the matchup, the Timberwolves have the fifth-best scoring defense in the NBA (108.0 points allowed per game), allow the fifth-fewest assists per game (24.4) and rank ninth in opponent defensive rebounds per game (32.3). Leonard will need to be uber-efficient against an elite defensive team to clear this line in limited minutes. 

Kings team total over 113.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)
This is a case of two teams going in opposite directions. The Heat are in disarray amid Jimmy Butler’s trade request, and the distraction has caused them to give up 264 points over their past two games. Miami is coming off a 136-100 loss to the Jazz in which Utah shot 52.0% from the field and out-rebounded the Heat 57-32. Meanwhile, the Kings are riding a four-game winning streak and have scored 267 points over their past two games. Miami is an auto-fade until it gets out of this funk. 

Tyler Herro over 3.5 threes (-115 at DraftKings)
This prop is right in line with Herro’s season average of 3.8 made threes per game, but he should have a busier shooting night without Butler against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The Kings rank 29th in the league in opponent three-point shooting percentage (38.0%) and opponent made threes per game (14.6). They also give up the sixth-most threes per game to opposing shooting guards (3.72). Herro should see a ton of open looks in this matchup.

Improving 76ers are Still 1-6 Against the Spread as Home Favorites

By Craig Williams

Pistons moneyline (-250 at FanDuel)
We’re keeping it simple to start today and rolling with the Pistons to prevail against the visiting Blazers. The Pistons are playing quality ball of late, winning three in a row, posting a 7-3 record over their past 10, and producing the league’s No. 11 ranked offensive rating in December. The Blazers, meanwhile, continue to sputter along in a tier just above the worst teams in the NBA. Portland’s struggles are exacerbated on the road, where they’re 4-14. They’re coming off of a victory against the Bucks, and they’re 3-8 straight-up following a win.

Blazers vs. Pistons over 225 points (-112 at DraftKings)
Both the Blazers and Pistons have found some relative offensive rhythm. Detroit nearly cracked the top 10 in offensive rating across 10 December contests; and Portland finished only one point below Detroit in the offensive rating department. On the flip side, neither team has played well defensively of late. In fact, they both ranked bottom three in defensive rating in December. The Blazers and Pistons are a combined 13-7 to the over across their past 10 games, and we’re banking on another defensive no-show in the Motor City tonight.

Cade Cunningham over 25.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Cunningham is enjoying a career season, and we’re banking on it to continue tonight against the Blazers. We like what Cunningham is doing of late: He’s averaging 21 shot attempts and 25.4 points over his past five contests. We also really like that he’s at home, where he has a better offensive rating and shooting percentages, and that he’s facing off against one of the worst defenses in the league. The Blazers posted an NBA-worst 124.4 defensive rating in December.

Suns vs. 76ers under 223.5 points (-110 at bet365)
We’re going a little bit off of “feel” here as we eye a relatively low-scoring contest. The Suns enter tonight on a four-game losing streak and a 3-7 mark over their past 10. Meanwhile, the 76ers continue to slowly claw their way back into the play-in picture after a dreadful start. They’re 7-3 over their past 10, but we still don’t trust them at home, where they’re 5-9 and struggle offensively. The Suns balance this out with their 5-10 road record. Someone will have to win tonight, but that doesn’t mean it will be pretty.

76ers moneyline (-160 at bet365)
The Sixers are 1-6 against the spread as home favorites, so we’re going to take the conservative route and back them on the moneyline instead of the spread. They’ve been playing better of late, and even though they’re still on the outside of the play-in seeds, they appear to have righted the ship in enough time to work their way back into playoff contention. Meanwhile, the Suns are in quite a rut, and being on the road doesn’t appear to be the best cure for their current ills.

Pacers -9.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
The Nets’ injury report looks like a CVS receipt. The status of several key players is in question, and even if the Nets are able to suit up their walking wounded, it’s not unreasonable to expect them to be half a step slower than their counterparts on the Pacers. Speaking of the Pacers, they’re enjoying a nice run, winning two straight and seven of 10 straight up. They’re also 3-1 against the spread over their past four and 7-3 against the number over their past 10.

Nets under 106.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Nets finished bottom three in offensive rating in December, a trend that has not shown signs of changing in the early days of 2025. One primary problem for the Nets is they can’t stabilize their point guard position. This is something that could be seen coming when they traded away Dennis Schroder. They leaned on Ben Simmons until they were able to acquire D’Angelo Russell, but now both of them are questionable with calf injuries. Given the nature of calf injuries, it’s likely both sit out, leaving the Nets to call upon a ragtag bunch without a floor general.

In the News 

• The Patriots’ Jerod Mayo (year 1) and Jaguars’ Doug Pederson (year 3) were both fired.

• The Giants decided to keep their coach and GM, as did the Colts.

• Hideki Matsuyama set multiple PGA Tour records with is 35-under par finish at The Sentry.

• Which NFL players got performances bonuses in Week 18?

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: North Dakota State vs. Montana State in the FCS Championship game on ESPN

• 9pm: TCU vs. No. 14 Houston on ESPN2 in the only top-25 men’s college basketball game of the day

• 10pm: Heat vs. Kings on NBA TV

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