Betting Insights for the Thunder-Cavs Showdown and More NBA, Soccer and Golf Coverage

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Sportmoney x PFF NFL regular season wrap-up

• NBA: Thunder and Cavs have won a combined 25 in a row

• NBA: Wemby is averaging 28.5 points a game over his past 13

• Golf: Clanton earned 4 top-10 finishes in 8 starts last year

• Soccer: Liverpool scored 16 goals in their past 4 games

• Overtime: PFT’s final NFL power rankings of the season

Our friends at Pro Football Focus have been providing our subscribers with an exclusive rundown of NFL stats, trends and ratings throughout the season. This week, they have a regular season wrap-up for you all. You can find it on our website, but here’s a quick preview:

• Highest rated passers in 2024 (minimum 150 dropbacks): 

  1. Joe Burrow: 94.1 Passing Grade 

  2. Lamar Jackson: 93.6 Passing Grade 

  3. Justin Herbert: 91.3 Passing Grade 

  4. Baker Mayfield: 86.2 Passing Grade 

  5. Josh Allen: 85.2 Passing Grade 

• QBs with the highest adjusted completion percentage* (minimum 100 dropbacks): 

  1. Jalen Hurts: 80.1% 

  2. Tua Tagovailoa: 79.8% 

  3. Joe Burrow: 79.6% 

  4. Jared Goff: 79.3%

  5. Jayden Daniels: 79.1% 

  *Adjusted completion percentage takes out batted passes, throw aways, spikes, hit as thrown passes 

• QBs with the highest big-time throw percentage in 2024 (minimum 100 dropbacks):

  1. Michael Penix Jr.: 9.5% 

  2. Josh Allen: 7.2% 

  3. Bryce Young: 7.0% 

  4. Lamar Jackson: 6.3% 

  5. Anthony Richardson: 6.1% 

In today’s newsletter, Chris and Craig cover the NBA, Jack looks at the PGA Tour’s Sony Open, and Sam analyzes today’s Liverpool vs. Tottenham match.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. We still have a ways to go until the NFL season is over, but can you fill out this survey to help us plan our post-NFL betting coverage?

Oklahoma City is 9-5-1 to the Under During 15-Game Winning Streak

By Craig Williams

Cavs moneyline (-138 at FanDuel)
Tonight’s contest between the Thunder and Cavs is being billed as a potential Finals preview, so there will be plenty of hype in the lead up to tip-off. They’re a combined 61-9, so they’re both going to grade as dominant no matter how one wants to cut up their rankings and splits. Much is made — rightfully so — of the Thunder’s 15-game winning streak, but the Cavs have won 10 in a row, so they’re red hot as well. In a matchup that’s so closely contested, we’re going to lean toward the home team. The Thunder are hitting the road for the first time after a five-game homestand, and it’s their third successive game against an Eastern Conference title contender. It’s a lot to ask for them to take out all three.

Cavs vs. Thunder under 230.5 points (-105 at BetMGM)
As mentioned above, the Thunder and the Cavs may be the two teams we see battling it out in June, so it’s no surprise that they both rank top-10 in defensive and offensive rating. These teams can both sink their teeth in defensively and at least slow the rate of scoring enough to combine for the under. The Thunder are 9-5-1 to the under across their 15-game win streak and enter with the league’s best defensive rating — a mark that is even stingier over their past 15 games. The Cavs pace the league offensively, so this is a classic clash of defense and offense. We like the Cavs to prevail on their home floor, but “only” in a moderately high-scoring game.

Donovan Mitchell -1.5 points vs. Jalen Williams (-120 at DraftKings)
We’re sticking with the night’s premier NBA action for one more play, and this time we’re looking at Mitchell to outscore Williams. Mitchell has been sharing the wealth a bit more this season, and he’s averaging a modest — by his standards — 22.2 points over his past 10 contests, all Cavs wins. He’s doing so efficiently as well, shooting 47.2/41.7/83.3 over that span. He’s scoring and shooting better than Williams by significant margins. Williams is averaging 17.7 points on 42.4% shooting and enters with a lower offensive rating on the road. We like Mitchell to do a little bit more than Williams and end with the cover in this spot.

Bulls +6 (-110 at bet365)
We like the Pacers to win ultimately, but considering how both of these teams are entering the game, we envision a closely contested divisional contest. The Bulls are 6-4 across their past 10 and 4-1 against the spread over their past five. They have a better record and higher offensive production on the road as well. The Bulls and Pacers are 5-5 straight-up and against the spread over the past 10 meetings and have also split the over/under right down the middle. With both teams playing reasonably well heading into this contest, we envision a close game in which the Bulls keep pace throughout. 

Bulls vs. Pacers over 239.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Pacers are playing well, and as we mentioned above, we expect them to win, but in a high-scoring contest. The Bulls are playing better on the road, both in the win-loss column and across scoring metrics. They both rank top-10 in scoring over their past 10 games while producing middle of the pack defensive marks over that span. The factor that stands out for us is how evenly the Bulls and Pacers have played each other across their past 10 meetings, so when they share the floor tonight we like both teams’ respective offenses to take center stage and deliver a high-scoring total.

Tyrese Maxey over 30.5 points (-110 at ESPNBET)
The 76ers have ruled Joel Embiid and Paul George out tonight, suggesting Maxey will have additional usage and scoring responsibilities. Maxey is averaging 31 points across his past five non-blowout games on 23.8 shot attempts. Considering the 76ers’ absences, we think the score stays close enough to require Maxey to log his usual 38-40 minutes; but we don’t respect the Wizards’ porous defense — they have the leagues’ second-worst defensive rating this season and over their past five — enough to believe they can hold down a player of Maxey’s caliber.

Nikola Jokic over 49.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 at DraftKings)
Based on what we know about Jokic, it’s reasonable to suggest that missing last night’s game against the visiting Celtics ate him up. He’s listed as questionable with an illness tonight, so his status needs to be monitored before considering this one, but we’re presuming he’s playing — and we envision him taking out frustration on the visiting Clippers. Jokic has gone over this number in six straight contests and enters play with a 31.5% usage rate, the second highest of his career. It’s the second night of a back-to-back for the Nuggets, so if anyone in the rotation has heavy legs, Jokic will theoretically be fresh enough to pick up the slack.

Spurs Covered in 8 of Past 10 and Hit the Under in 7 of 9

By Chris Farley

Nets +8 (-108 at Bookmaker)
Make no mistake about it, the Nets are a dumpster fire. They lost five of their past six games and have only covered in four of their past 12. They're also at the bottom of the Eastern Conference, and only the Raptors have a worse net rating over the past seven contests. Still, the Pistons are a "newly good" team, and it's showing in their ability to cover when favored. As the chalk, they're just 3-8 ATS, including a near loss in a perfect setup against the Blazers two nights ago, where they only won by 3 (they were favored by 6). We like Detroit's trajectory but this is too much inflation.

Nets vs. Pistons over 212 points (-110 at Bovada and Bookmaker)
Until recently the Pistons have not been taken seriously. That's rapidly changing, and it's mostly due to their scoring ability. Over their past 10 games they're the 8th-best offense, including a top-10 mark in effective field goal percentage, and they run at a top-11 tempo. You wouldn't know that based on this total. In most circles, the Pistons are still known as a "defensive team," but they're mediocre (14th) over the same 10-game span. Contests featuring the Pistons have also yielded overs in 10 of their last 14 meetings. We haven't even mentioned the Nets, for good reason. They've allowed 115.6 points per game in their past five battles.

Knicks team total first half over 59.5 points (-120 at BetOnline)
Last time we wrote-up NBA picks here, we were expecting the Knicks to explode against a tired Magic squad. That didn't happen. Fortunately, after a bad 103-94 loss to Orlando, they're in a much better position on Wednesday against a foe that can't stop anyone. The Raptors are far and away the NBA's worst team in recent weeks, rated last in defense and net-rating over their past 10 games. Predictably, it shows in the results. Toronto has allowed 125+ to opponents in four out of their past six contests, a remarkable and pathetic feat. Toronto is also starting a long road trip and has Cleveland on deck Thursday. Maybe this slows down late, but we like a fast start for New York.

Pelicans -2.5 (-105 at Bet365, BetMGM, BetOnline, and Bookmaker)
This isn't an easy spot for the Pelicans on a back to back, but we can't blindly bet just based on situations. Overall, New Orleans is showing a better product. They didn't look outmatched against Minnesota, an outfit that remains a legitimate title contender. Over their past five contests, the Pels are a top-11 offense and net-rated 13th; the Blazers are 23rd, and consistently one of the worst defenses in the association. New Orleans has also had little issue with easier opposition, like their sweep against Washington a few days ago, and it helps that Zion Williamson is back and Trey Murphy III is slated to return tonight.

Spurs +5.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
San Antonio is starting to become the contender many fans are pining for. It's easy to have bias in these circumstances, especially with a young stud like Victor Wembanyama burgeoning into a new, more dominant form. It also makes it easier to consider them when their opposition isn't playing up to par. Milwaukee's offense has fallen off a cliff following their NBA Cup win, 21st in offensive efficiency over their past five games, and they've only covered twice in their last six. Like San Antonio, their defense is playing well, but a methodical, defensive game is where the Spurs thrive — a program that's covered in eight of their past 10 and hit the under in seven of their past nine.

Victor Wembanyama over 25.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)
If there's one thing we know about Wembanyama, it's that he tends to step up against other star bigs. In recent weeks he put up 35 points against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, 34 against Rudy Gobert and the T-Wolves, and 42 against Karl Anthony-Towns and the Knicks. Tonight marks another seminal moment for the French phenom, who only went up against Giannis Antetokounmpo one other time (he scored 27 points in just 26 minutes a year ago). Wembanyama has been on a tear, averaging 28.5 points per game in his past 13 contests, and we expect his best again tonight.

Straka Ranked 4th on PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy Last Year

By Jack Dougherty

Tom Kim top-10 finish including ties (+200 at DraftKings)
Kim is a strong play whenever he gets on a short, positional golf course that emphasizes accuracy off the tee and precision with your irons. That’s exactly what we have this week at Waialae. The last time we saw Kim, he finished runner-up to Scottie Scheffler at the Hero World Challenge last month. He’s riding some momentum into the 2025 season after recording three top-10 finishes in his last six worldwide starts, and this is a perfect golf course for his game. 

Luke Clanton top-10 finish including ties (+280 at DraftKings)
Clanton is an up-and-comer you need to keep your eyes on. The 21-year-old doesn’t even have his full-time PGA Tour card yet, but he’s already one of the most talented youngsters on the pro golf circuit. As an amateur last season, Clanton notched four top-10 finishes in eight starts and finished runner-up twice. Two of those finishes came at Sedgefield Country Club and Sea Island Golf Club, which are short, positional courses that compare to Waialae. The odds haven’t caught up to just how good this kid is, and Waialae should fit his game perfectly. 

Rico Hoey top-20 finish including ties (+350 at DraftKings)
Hoey was one of our favorite players to back down the stretch of last season. The 29-year-old caught fire with three top-10 finishes in the span of four starts in the summer, and he finished the year with four top-22 finishes in his last five starts. Hoey was a dreadful putter in the first half of 2024, but something clicked after the U.S. Open and he went on to gain strokes from putting in nine of his last 12 recorded starts. With how well he’s been hitting his driver and irons, Hoey should be in store for another strong week if the putter stays hot.

72-hole matchup: Sepp Straka > Sahith Theegala (+105 at FanDuel)
Waialae isn’t a good fit for Theegala’s game. The California native struggles with driving accuracy and is hot-and-cold with his irons, which is a rough combination for these tight, tree-lined fairways. Theegala finished T48 and missed the cut in his two career starts at Waialae, and driving accuracy was the biggest reason why. Straka, on the other hand, ranked fourth on the PGA Tour last season in driving accuracy and 10th in strokes gained on approach. We trust his consistent ball-striking to navigate this positional golf course better than Theegala.

Russell Henley to win (+2000 at DraftKings)
It’s never a bad idea to back Henley at Waialae Country Club. The American won the Sony Open in his debut here in 2013, and he’s finished T4, T32, solo second and T11 in his past four starts at this golf course. Henley finished last season strong with a pair of top-seven finishes at the last two majors and a T4 at the Tour Championship, and he’s hoping that propels him to a hot start in 2025. 

Michael Thorbjornsen to win (+7500 at FanDuel)
Thorbjornsen, like Clanton, is one of those players you want to be on before he blows up. The Stanford product finished his collegiate career last year with a win and five top-eight finishes in his last six starts, and he immediately jumped to the PGA Tour and finished runner-up at the John Deere Classic two months later. Thorbjornsen crushes the ball off the tee and is a great putter. He’s inconsistent with his driving accuracy and iron play, which would pose a problem at Waialae, but Thorbjornsen’s massive upside makes him an intriguing play at this price.

Three of Tottenham’s Back Four Are Injured with Liverpool Looming

By Sam Farley

Liverpool over 2.5 goals vs. Tottenham (+124 at FanDuel)

• Arne Slots’ Liverpool cannot stop scoring, having scored 16 goals in their past four games

• Spurs have kept just six clean sheets in all competitions this season and have a number of defensive injuries: Three of their back four are injured — Micky van de Ven, Cristian Romero, Destiny Udogie — as is goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario

Liverpool to win and both teams to score (+150 at Bet365)

• Liverpool are in incredible form, clear at the top of the Premier League and unbeaten in 24 games in all competitions

• Liverpool are the highest scoring team in the league, closely followed by second place Tottenham, and when these teams met in December we saw Liverpool win 6-3

Wataru Endo to be shown a card (+360 at Caesars)

• Endo has been a bit-part player for Liverpool this season, having not started in the Premier League, however he’s started all three Carabao Cup games so far (averaging 1.3 fouls per game and picking up one booking)

• The Japanese midfielder picked up 12 bookings and was a liability when he played more often last season, so with the speed of the Tottenham attack he could have a difficult game

In the News 

• The Bears could make a trade to get their next head coach.

• Either Marcus Freeman or James Franklin will have the opportunity to become the first Black coach to win a title at the highest level of college football.

• Get ready for next week’s start of the Australian Open with a preview from Inside Tennis (we’ll be covering the tournament for you too).

• PFT’s final NFL power rankings of the year.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2pm: Athletic Club vs. Barcelona in Spanish Supercopa semifinal action on ESPN2

• 7pm: The NBA’s top two teams face off on ESPN when the Thunder take on the Cavaliers (followed by Spurs vs. Bucks)

• 8:30pm: JuJu Watkins and No. 4 USC take on No. 8 Maryland on FS1

• 9pm: No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. 17 Oklahoma in men’s college basketball on SEC Network

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