Betting Insights for Vikings vs. Rams as NFL Wild Card Round Finishes Tonight

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: AFC Divisional Round matchups are set

• NFL: Nacua has gone over tonight’s total (91.5) in 6 of past 8 starts

• NBA: The Knicks are 4-0 to the over in the second leg of back-to-backs

• NBA: 10 of of Kawhi 22 shot attempts since returning have been 3-pointers

• Overtime: The 76ers aren’t moving after all

With their Wild Card wins, the Texans, Ravens and Bills are joining the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs next week. Here’s how the matchups are looking early, according the DraftKings:

• Texans vs. Chiefs (Saturday at 4:30pm ET)

  • Spread: KC -7.5 (-115), HOU +7.5 (-105)

    • 53% of the bets are with HOU

  • Moneyline: KC -425, HOU +330

    • 82% of the bets are with KC

  • Total (41.5): Over -112, Under -108

    • Currently 50/50 on bets placed

• Ravens vs. Bills (Sunday at 6:30pm ET)

  • Spread: BAL -0.5 (-115), BUF +0.5 (-105)

    • 52% of the bets are with BAL

  • Moneyline: BAL -115, BUF -105

    • 56% of the bets are with BAL

  • Total (51.5): Over -105, Under -115

    • 55% of the bets are with the over

We’ll take a look at the NFC games tomorrow after tonight’s Vikings vs. Rams game finalizes the round (but the Commanders already know they’re headed to Detroit).

In today’s newsletter, Chris analyzes that final NFL Wild Card matchup, and Jack and Craig have insights on tonight’s NBA slate.

— Abe Rakov

Underdog Rams Hope Experience, Big Weapons are Enough to Upset the Vikings in Arizona

By Chris Farley

Rams moneyline (+124 at Bookmaker)
The biggest difference between the Vikings and Rams is experience. Statistics favor the Vikings in many ways — they're a top-10 offense with a top-five passing attack, they allow the fifth-fewest points per game (19.5), and they only lost three games all year. Still, like the 30-20 Rams' win against the Vikings showed in Week 8, the Rams' leadership is among the best in the NFL, and now they have the emotions of their battered home-city for extra fuel. In Week 8, Matthew Stafford was never sacked and the Rams outgained the Vikings by 110 yards. We trust in Rams' coach Sean McVay and Stafford, a synergy that's already won a Super Bowl, to outthink a newbie Minnesota squad.

Vikings vs. Rams over 48 points (-110 at BetMGM and Caesars)
Both defenses have been playing very well. For example, since Week 8 the Vikings accrued 19 sacks, often drive-killers in big moments. The Rams have been extremely stingy, too, permitting 9 or fewer points in three out of their past four games and 14 or less in four out of their last six. The problem is that the Vikings are one of the best first-quarter offenses in the NFL (averaging 6.4 points), and both offenses have simply too much talent to be kept down for long, meaning one QB will start airing it out more to catch up with the other. And one detail we love — Minnesota scored only six points after the first quarter in Week 8, and the total still reached 50 points. 

Puka Nacua over 91.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
It's hard to imagine anyone usurping Cooper Kupp, the Rams' longtime #1 receiver and former Super Bowl MVP, but that's exactly what Nacua is doing. The former BYU standout has been amazing in his second season, accruing 990 yards in just 11 games (90 yards per game). Last time the Rams and Vikings clashed, Nacua torched Minnesota's backfield, catching 7 balls for 109 yards, and he's gone over this number in six out of his past eight starts. Since Minnesota is favored and the market is expecting many points, it's a perfect setup for Nacua to be an essential part of McVay's gameplan and thus fed for all four quarters.

Touchdown Scorer: Jordan Addison (+150 at FanDuel)
In Week 8, the Rams had a tough time slowing down Justin Jefferson. The magnetic wide receiver caught 8 balls for 115 yards, an average of over 14 yards per catch. Obviously, LAR cannot afford to allow the same production again, especially since Minnesota has a redemptive mindset after scoring just nine points in the season finale against Detroit. Insert: Jordan Addison. The former USC standout had just six targets, one reception, and 0 yards last Sunday against the Lions, an extreme outlier considering he's scored seven touchdowns and averaged 82 receiving yards per game in his previous seven starts. Expect Minnesota's #2 receiver to step up in big moments.

Vikings vs. Rams second half over 23.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
There's a chance that the Monday night matchup starts slow. Let's face it, the playoffs create a different pressure, especially for a Vikings' roster that's very inexperienced in January, and the game will be played at an unexpected venue (moved to Arizona because of the L.A. wildfires). We have little doubt that scoring will pick up later. Minnesota and LAR are both top-10 scoring offenses in the second half, averaging a combined 25 points per game. Eventually both quarterbacks will settle down and whatever outfit is losing will enter catch-up mode. We like depending on either offense in this situation.

Aaron Jones over 14.5 rushing attempts (-110 at DraftKings)
The Vikings have been using multiple running backs the past few weeks, still featuring Jones while sharing his workload with Cam Akers and sometimes Ty Chandler. Knowing they would make the playoffs and probably trying to protect Jones' health, the former Packers RB had just 10 carries against Detroit, 12 carries against his former team in Week 17, and just 54 combined carries from Weeks 13-16. In Week 8 against the Rams, Jones ran 18 times, even with Minnesota trailing in the second-half and passing more often. The Vikings signed Jones for these moments and markets haven't properly adjusted. 

Edwards Averaged Making 4.2 of his 9.5 3-Point Attempts over Past 10 Games

By Craig Williams

Pistons +7.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
The Knicks dropped four of five before winning and covering against the Bucks on Sunday evening. We still like the Pistons to put forth a good showing at the Garden, where they’ve covered in four of their past five trips. The Knicks and Pistons rank top eight in net rating across their past 10 games, so they’re both in good form at the moment. And if there’s something the Knicks haven’t done well, it’s cover in the second leg of back-to-back sets.

Knicks vs. Pistons over 223.5 points (-112 at DraftKings)
The Knicks and Pistons are playing well at both ends of the floor. We’re going to give the nod to the offenses in this one and are looking for them to combine for at least 224 points. The Knicks are 4-0 to the over when they play in the second leg of back-to-backs. They’ve given up an average of 115 points across those four instances, and that would be enough defensive leniency to get the total over in this spot.

Spurs moneyline first quarter (+110 at FanDuel)
Tonight’s contest will be billed as an opportunity for basketball — and the Lakers in particular — to give people an escape from the devastation of the fires wreaking havoc in Los Angeles. That’s a lot of pressure to put on the shoulders of players and staff, who are processing heavy emotions. Plus the Lakers have been off for seven days, so it’s unfair to expect them to be sharp and in rhythm to start the contest. The Spurs may have dropped three straight, but they have a positive net rating across their past five games, and the stage will be set for them to get off to a quicker start than the Lakers.

LeBron James Parlay: 2+ three-pointers + 6+ assists + 6+ rebounds (+107 at FanDuel)
If the sports and news narrative is going to place basketball and the Lakers in the spotlight, that means James will be front and center as well. He’s been productive of late, averaging 3.4 three-pointers, 8.1 assists, and 6.6 rebounds over his past five games. He’s also hit at least two three-pointers in eight of 13 games since December. We will hold our breath on his two made threes to some degree — though we like what he’s done there of late — but James performed well in both the assist and rebound departments in his first two games against the Spurs this season.

Anthony Edwards over 3.5 three-pointers (-125 at Caesars)
Edwards doesn’t need an invitation to launch from distance, but the Wizards will provide him with the VIP treatment nonetheless. They’re bottom-10 in opponents’ three-point percentage, and next to last in opponents’ made threes per game — plus they’ve been even worse, statistically, in those areas in recent contests. Edwards, meanwhile, is hitting 4.2 of his 9.5 attempts across his past 10 games, good for a 44.2% clip. He’s gone over 3.5 threes made in seven of his past 10 games.

Wolves vs. Wizards under 224 points(-110 at FanDuel)
As bad as the Wizards have been of late (-12.1 net rating across their past 15 games) the Timberwolves have been underwhelming themselves. Their -1.6 net rating ranks No. 16 overall, and they only have the 22nd-best offensive rating over that same span. Still, the Wizards’ futility across a range of scoring metrics overshadows any struggles the Wolves may be experiencing. And the Wolves have sunk their teeth in defensively in recent games, so they won’t need to score big in order to win this matchup comfortably.

Parlay: Knicks moneyline + Lakers moneyline (+112 at ESPNBET)
We’re not anticipating smooth sailing for either the Lakers or the Knicks, but we do ultimately expect them to prevail against the Spurs and Pistons, respectively. The Lakers won and covered their first two matchups with the Spurs — both in San Antonio. They’re 12-5 at home compared to the Spurs, who enter with a 6-11 road mark. The Knicks, meanwhile, have dominated the Pistons in recent seasons — their most recent meeting notwithstanding. They’re 9-1 against them over the past 10 matchups.

Rockets Give Up 2nd-Fewest Assists to Opposing Point Guards (7.46/Game)

By Jack Dougherty

Draymond Green over 2.5 steals + blocks (+114 at DraftKings)
Green has been a defensive menace over the past few weeks. The Warriors forward has cleared this line in eight of his past nine games, averaging 3.0 steals + blocks per game in that span. This is a great matchup for Green to keep stuffing the defensive stat sheet, as the Raptors are one of the sloppiest teams in the NBA. Toronto ranks 25th in the league in opponent blocks per game (5.9) and 26th in opponent steals per game (9.6). 

Ja Morant under 6.5 assists (-125 at DraftKings)
It’s not easy to rack up assists against this elite Rockets defense. Houston ranks second in the NBA in opponent assists per game (22.3), and it gives up the second-fewest assists per game to opposing point guards (7.46). Morant knows that all too well, as he recorded only two and three assists, respectively, in two matchups against the Rockets this season. The Grizzlies PG mustered just six potential assists against Houston a few days ago, so this number looks too high.

Jalen Green 4+ made threes (+160 at FanDuel)
Green is scorching hot from beyond the arc right now. The Rockets guard is 21-48 (43.8%) from three over his past four games, clearing this line in all four. The Grizzlies play at the fastest pace in the NBA, which gives their opponents more chances to score simply because they get more possessions than they would in a typical game. In two games against Memphis this season, Green is 8-16 from three and 2-0 on this line. 

Alperen Sengun to record 12+ rebounds (+145 at FanDuel)
Another way faster pace affects box scores is in the rebounding department. The Grizzlies rank 23rd in the NBA in opponent total rebounds per game (53.2) and 25th in opponent offensive rebounds per game (11.7). Sengun has feasted on the glass in two games against Memphis this season, pulling in 15 and 14 boards, respectively, in those two matchups. He racked up a whopping 23 rebound chances against the Grizzlies just a few days ago, and there’s no reason that should change here.

Kawhi Leonard over 1.5 made threes (+116 at FanDuel)
Leonard has played in only two games this season, and what we’ve noticed is he’s more comfortable hanging around on the perimeter and looking for open threes than testing his right knee in the paint. Ten of his 22 shot attempts have been three-pointers, and he cleared this line in both games. Leonard sat out LA’s last game against the Nuggets, so he should be able to ramp up his workload Monday night coming off seven days of rest.

Trayce Jackson-Davis to record a double-double (+260 at FanDuel)
Jackson-Davis has taken on a much bigger rebounding role since jumping back to the starting lineup last month. The second-year pro has averaged 14.3 potential rebounds and 8.7 rebounds per game over his past 12 games, and he’s grabbed 10 boards in back-to-back games without Jonathan Kuminga in the lineup. This is also a juicy matchup against the Raptors, which have already given up point-rebound double-doubles to Nic Claxton, Goga Bitadze, Karl-Anthony Towns and Jarrett Allen this month.

In the News 

• After winning a City Council vote, the 76ers decided not to move to downtown Philadelphia after all.

• Did you see A.J. Brown reading a book during the second half yesterday? It was “Inner Excellence.”

• During Sunday Night Football, NBC reminded viewers that it’s getting the NBA back.

• “If Ewers is playing college football next season, it won't be at the University of Texas. It's Manning time.”

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 6:30pm: No. UCLA vs. Rutgers men’s college basketball on FS1

• 8pm: The Vikings take on the Rams in the final NFL Wild Card matchup on ABC and ESPN

• 10:30pm: Spurs vs. Lakers on NBA TV

Photo of the Day