A Look at NFL Futures + Insights on 19 NBA, Australian Open and PGA Bets

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Looking ahead at the NFL Playoffs

• NBA: Utah is 7-3 against the spread over its past 10 games

• Tennis: Tiafoe, Collins, Navarro and Raducanu matches on tap today

• Golf: La Quinta Country Club is the 3rd-easiest on the PGA Tour since 2016

• NCAAM: Betting trends for three of today’s biggest games

• Overtime: The non-Deion former Cowboy that could take over in Dallas some day, if not this time

The NFL playoff field is down to eight teams, which has tightened the futures market as the Super Bowl nears. Here’s where things stand at FanDuel:

• AFC winner: Chiefs (+135), Ravens (+210), Bills (+240), Texans (+1600)

• NFC winner: Lions (+100), Eagles (+170), Rams (+650), Commanders (+1100)

• Super Bowl winner: Lions (+290), Chiefs (+350), Eagles (+420), Ravens (+470), Bills (+550)

• Most passing yards in the playoffs: Josh Allen (+280), Patrick Mahomes (+340), Lamar Jackson (+360), Jared Goff (+440)

• Most rushing yards in the playoffs: Derrick Henry (-110), Saquon Barkley (+120)

• Jalen Hurts to record 500+ passing yards: -140

• Derrick Henry to record 400+ rushing yards: +145

• Amon-Ra St. Brown to record 200+ receiving yards: +130

In today’s newsletter, Craig has NBA insights, Chris kicks off our Australian Open tennis coverage, and Jack analyzes this week’s PGA Tour event.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. Did you miss Sportmoney yesterday? Head to our website today to get one month free of our daily coverage — you’ll receive our full coverage seven days a week.

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With Knicks and 76ers Both Struggling on Defense, Tonight’s Total is 219

By Craig Williams

Knicks vs. 76ers over 219 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Knicks and 76ers are both 5-5 over their past 10 games as they both grind through a stretch of inconsistency. The defensive end of the floor is where both teams are struggling. They’re virtually tied with the same defensive rating over their past 10 contests, one that places them among the bottom-10 teams in the league over that span. The 76ers have been even worse over their past five games in which they’ve gone 1-4 straight-up and 0-5 against the spread. The Knicks are still playing well offensively even if their defense has been more porous, setting the stage for a high-scoring contest.

Knicks moneyline (-213 at Caesars)
Sometimes what a struggling team needs is to share the floor with another team finding its way. To be fair to the Knicks, they have been in the midst of a challenging stretch of games — even the Pistons are rolling at the moment — but the 76ers continue to flounder outside of the play-in spots. As has been the case for most of the season, Joel Embiid will remain absent from Philadelphia’s lineup, allowing the Knicks to key in on the likes of Paul George and Tyrese Maxey and theoretically put away a team that is 1-4 over their past five.

Hawks vs. Bulls over 243.5 points — alternate (-135 at DraftKings)
We are trading some potential profit for a lower total here to account for the Hawks’ and Bulls’ respective offensive splits — the Bulls perform better offensively on the road and the Hawks perform better at home. Still, we like this to be a high-scoring contest thanks to both teams’ apparent disinterest in playing defense. The Hawks are 26th in defensive rating over their past 10 games while Chicago checks in at No. 19 over the same span. The combination of both teams’ poor defensive metrics and the Hawks’ current offensive form should allow the teams to hit the modified over.

Warriors under 104.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)
The Warriors continue to struggle, particularly on the offensive side of the floor. They’re 4-6 over their past 10, and they rank 25th in offensive rating over that span. They’re sharing real estate with teams like the Nets and Wizards in that department. Stephen Curry simply can’t do it by himself, especially at this stage of his career, and the Warriors aren’t giving him much help. Even Draymond Green, who can at least help facilitate the offense, is questionable with a back ailment. The Warriors have remained under 105 points in four of their past five games.

Timberwolves moneyline (-230 at bet365)
We touched on the Warriors’ offensive struggles and we’re bearish on them in this contest, primarily because of their inability to score the ball right now. The Timberwolves aren’t lighting the world on fire, but they’re 6-4 over their past 10, and they’re middle of the pack in both defensive and offensive rating over that stretch. They’re also at home, where they’re 10-8 compared to the Warriors’ 9-10 road mark. That may be a bit underwhelming, but even a diluted home-court advantage projects to be more than enough for a Wolves win.

Nets under 98.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
It’s been rough sledding for the Nets, who have gone 1-5 straight-up and 2-4 against the spread over their past six. They have the fourth-worst offensive rating over that span of time — though it is ever so slightly better than the Clippers’ — and the sixth-worst over the course of the season. The Clippers may not be doing much offensively, but they’ve been stout on the defensive end of the floor of late, ranking fifth in defensive rating over their past 10. Finally, the Nets are playing in the second leg of a back-to-back, and they are 1-6 to the under in those spots.

Jazz +5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
The Jazz are bad, one of the worst teams in the NBA. Yet, they host an even worse Hornets team and get 5.5 points in the process. The Hornets are 1-9 over their past 10 games and have the league’s second-worst offensive rating over that span. The Jazz have been respectable on both ends of the floor over their past 10 contests, ranking 17th and 14th in offensive and defensive rating, respectively. Finally, even though the Jazz aren’t winning, they’re covering with high frequency of late. They’re 7-3 against the spread over their past 10, and they’ve covered five of their past six.

Tiafoe Back in Action After Winning a 5-Setter in Round 1 at the Australian Open

By Chris Farley

Frances Tiafoe vs. Fabian Marozsan over 39 games (-109 at Bookmaker)
Tiafoe must be beyond thrilled that he's gotten two days of rest in between his first and second matches in Sydney. The 26-year old American is in his prime but onlookers watched as he puked in front of a live audience in the fourth set of his opening battle, a war he ended up winning in five sets and after four hours of competition. His opponent on Wednesday cannot be considered among the same ranks — he's just 6-6 in majors — but Marozsan is known for his drop-shots and crafty maneuvers, something that will have Tiafoe working in overdrive again. Since Tiafoe hasn't looked sharp anyway (5-8 since the U.S. Open), we'll look for a longer bout.

Joao Fonseca -6 (-105 at Bookmaker)
Fonseca is currently the most talked-about tennis player in Sydney for good reason. The 18-year old caught 9th-ranked Andrey Rublev in his opener, and he did it in three straight sets. The Brazilian's form was superb, hitting his serve on 73% of attempts and producing 14 aces. His first-serve win-rate: 76%. He burned through the qualifiers (losing just 12 games in three matches), and his opponent, Lorenzo Sonego, is on a terrible streak of failing to get beyond the second round in 10 straight tournaments. Momentum and moxie is on the Brazilian's side; don't overthink this one.

Danielle Collins wins 2-0 (-130 at DraftKings)
Exactly one year ago Collins admitted to the tennis world that the 2024 WTA campaign would be her last, choosing to retire at the conclusion of the year. Then October hit and that all changed. Collins experienced one of the best years ever as a pro, and she now ranks 10th entering the Australian Open. Australia has been very kind to the 30-year old American, who holds an amazing 17-6 record in Sydney, and she made the finals just three years ago. Destanee Aiava is a fine tennis player, but we refuse to step in front of Collins, whose form is as refined as any competitor this season.

Emma Navarro wins 2-1 (+250 at DraftKings)
Navarro keeps finding ways to win, even if the odds are piled against her. The resilient American is coming off a seminal year of tennis where she made the quarterfinals at Wimbledon and semis at the U.S. Open, a peek into the elite player she wants to become. In the first round she fell behind Peyton Stearns, who had a 5-3 lead in the final set, but somehow managed to pull out another victory. Last year Xiyu Wang and Navarro battled it out in three sets, in a match where Wang impressively came back after dropping the first set 1-6. Navarro is the better player, but she still seems to be catching up to her top-form from last year, so we'll consider her in a longer war.

Camila Osorio moneyline (+215 at FanDuel)
Ons Jabeur is famous for her near-tournament wins, making the finals twice at Wimbledon and once at the U.S. Open the past two years. Her likable character and vulnerability on the court make her an easy player to root for, but lately she's fallen out of form. In 2024, Ons' only impressive run was at the French Open, where she made the quarterfinals. Otherwise she stumbled, quickly booted out of even smaller competitions. Osorio is no pushover, stunning Maria Sakkari in her first Australian Open appearance. She also plays aggressively and rarely makes big mistakes; not good news for Jabeur, who can be easily shaken. There's real value on the dog.

Emma Raducanu moneyline (+127 at BetOnline)
Was Raducanu’s first round win against Ekaterina Alexandrova a foreshadowing of bigger things to come? We think it is. The 22-year-old Brit and former U.S. Open winner hasn't been consistent since her return from injury, but her straight-set win against Alexandrova, a big-hitter and similar style to her opponent on Wednesday, is a great sign. Amanda Animosova is a real challenge for Raducanu, but the American was just as flawed in 2024 and has a history of losing to competitors like Raducanu. At her best, the Brit moves with grace and intention on the court and her ball-placement is spectacular. We saw glimpses of her championship form in the opener and we're counting on seeing it again.

Hall Has Gained Strokes from Putting in 15 Straight Starts

By Jack Dougherty

Patrick Cantlay Round 1 score - under 67.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Cantlay is in a great position to start The American Express off strong. He gets to play his first round at La Quinta Country Club, the easiest setup at this tournament and the third-easiest on Tour since 2016. La Quinta is a straightforward test of golf these guys can pick apart, as Cantlay did in 2022 when he fired a 10-under 62 in the first round. The American ranked 15th in Tour last season in Round 1 scoring average, and this is maybe the easiest test he’ll face all year. 

Harry Hall top-20 finish (+200 at FanDuel)
We highlighted this exact same bet for The Sentry, and Hall paid it off with a T8 finish. Now he’s the same price to finish inside the top 20 in a much weaker field, so we’re going right back to the well. Hall is sneakily one of the hottest players on the PGA Tour, finishing T14 or better in five straight starts. The American Express can turn into a putting contest with how easy it is to hit fairways and greens at these courses, and Hall has gained strokes from putting in a whopping 15 straight starts. He also ranked third on Tour last season in birdie or better percentage, which will be key this week on an easy setup. 

Matti Schmid top-20 finish (+500 at FanDuel)
Desert golf courses are unique tests on the PGA Tour. You either love them or you hate them, and we know which side Schmid falls on. During the fall swing, the German finished solo fifth at the Black Desert Championship and T3 at the Shriners Children’s Open while gaining 9.12 strokes on the greens in those eight rounds. Two years ago, he finished T6 at The American Express and gained strokes across the board. Schmid ranks No. 1 in the field in total strokes gained and strokes gained from putting on desert courses over the past six months.

Adam Hadwin top-10 finish (+650 at FanDuel)
Course history doesn’t mean as much at The American Express due to the three venues in use, but it’s impossible to ignore Hadwin’s sterling track record here. In eight career starts at this tournament, the Canadian has recorded five top-10s and has never finished worse than T32. Hadwin isn’t in good form right now, as he’s missed four cuts and hasn’t finished better than T27 in his past 12 starts, but that’s giving us a discount on his odds this week. He’s always felt comfortable on desert courses no matter his form coming into the week. 

Taylor Montgomery top-10 finish (+2500 at FanDuel)
This is a top-10 bet at an outright bet price, and we love the upside Montgomery presents this week. The American had a tough 2024 season due to his poor ball-striking, but he was the best statistical putter on the PGA Tour in terms of strokes gained per round. That completely flipped at last week’s Sony Open, as Montgomery gained 3.53 total strokes with his ball-striking but lost 1.79 total strokes on the greens. It was the second-best iron week of his career and his worst putting week in nearly a year. We trust the putter to heat back up on these simple greens like it did two years ago when he finished solo fifth here.

Max Greyserman to win (+3500 at Bet365)
In 2022, Jon Rahm famously called The American Express a bleeping putting contest, and he wasn’t wrong. This tournament is played on three different golf courses — the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West, the Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West and La Quinta Country Club — and all three are easy tests of golf with little trouble off the tee and surrounding the greens. That puts a bigger emphasis on putting, and no one is hotter with the flatstick than Greyserman. The American leads the PGA Tour in total strokes gained and strokes gained from putting over the past six months, which led to four top-fives and three runner-up finishes in his past seven starts. Greyserman’s first PGA Tour win is right around the corner, and this could be the week he breaks through.

Betting Trends for KU vs. Iowa State, UGA vs. Tennessee and WVU vs. Houston

No. 9 Kansas (12-3, 3-1 Big 12 vs. No. 2 Iowa State (14-1, 4-0 Big 12)

• Spread: Iowa State -5.5 (-120), Kansas +5.5 (-102)

• Moneyline: Iowa State -255, Kansas +205

• Total (143.5): Over -112, Under -108

• Trends

  • The under hit in 10 of past 12 Iowa State home games

  • Kansas is 3-6 ATS in their past nine road games

  • KU’s Hunter Dickinson has stayed under 3.5 turnovers in 17 of his past 19 games (1.6 average)

  • ISU’s Keshon Gilbert has gone over 19.5 points + rebounds in 5 of his past 6 home games (22.2 average)

No. 23 Georgia (14-2, 2-1 SEC) vs. No. 6 Tennessee (15-1, 2-1 SEC)

• Spread: Tennessee -11.5 (-105), Georgia +11.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Tennessee -690, Georgia +480

• Toal (133.5): Over -114, Under -106

• Trends

  • Tennessee is 9-4 ATS in their past 13 games as the favorite and hasn’t lost outright in 17 straight games as the favorite

  • Nine of Tennessee’s past 12 games have gone under the total

  • UGA’s Asa Newell has made at least one block in 6 of his past 7 games (1.1 average)

  • UT’s Zakai Zeigler has gone over 22.5 pts + reb + ast in 11 of his past 12 home games (26.8 pts average)

West Virginia (12-3, 3-1 Big 12) vs. No. 10 Houston (12-3, 4-0 Big 12)

• Spread: Houston -17.5 (-105), West Virginia +17.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Houston -3500, West Virginia +1280

• Total (124.5): Over -106, Under -114

• Trends

  • The under has hit in 9 of 11 Houston home games, and the Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 at home

  • West Virginia has won four of its past 6 games against top-25 scoring defenses

  • Houston’s J'Wan Roberts has gotten at least one steal in 11 of his past 13 home games (1.2 average)

  • West Virginia’s Javon Small has gone over 25.5 points + rebs + assists in six straight games (33.7 average)

In the News 

• Mike Tomlin seems very uninterested in coaching a different team.

• The NCAA wants Congress to get involved in college sports.

• Jason Witten, who currently coaches high school football, is the latest former Cowboys player to be floated to be the next coach.

• Indiana fans have had enough of Mike Woodson, whose Hoosiers are 13-5 and were 11-0 at home before last night’s blowout loss.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: A weekday North London Derby on Peacock as Arsenal hosts Tottenham

• 6pm: The NHL on TNT as the Hurricanes face the Sabres then the Oilers take on the Wild (at 8:30pm)

• 7pm: Big time men’s college basketball on ESPN2 with No. 9 Kansas vs. No. 2 Iowa State

• 9:30: Warriors vs. Timberwolves on ESPN

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