6 Bets to Watch and Player Trends for the CFP Championship Game (and NBA and Tennis Coverage)

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: CFP Championship Game betting trends

• College Football: OSU gave up over 17 points just twice this season

• NBA: Edwards is averaging 5 threes on 10.6 attempts over his past 10

• Tennis: Zverev has lost just one first set in his past 16 matches

• Overtime: The NBA is headed to Paris

The college football National Championship game is finally here. Ohio State is favored by more than a touchdown over Notre Dame, which is looking for its first national title since 1988. The Buckeyes have powered past their opponents in the CFP playoff, beating Tennessee by 25, Oregon by 20 and Texas by 14. The Fighting Irish beat Indiana by 10, Georgia by 13 and Penn State by 3.

Here are betting trends for tonight’s game:

• The under hit in 16 of the past 24 games in which Ohio State was the favorite

• The Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in their past 6 games vs. top 25 scoring defenses

• Ohio State QB Will Howard has thrown at least 2 TDs in 11 of his past 13 games (2.2 average)

• Buckeyes RB TreVeyon Henderson has gone over 57.5 rushing yards in 15 of his past 19 games (68.8 average)

• Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard has thrown a TD pass in eight straight games (1.6 average)

• Fighting Irish RB Jeremiyah Love has scored at least 1 TD in 15 of his past 16 games (1.2 average)

In today’s newsletter, Jack has six bets to watch in the CFP Championship, Craig has NBA insights, and Chris continues his coverage of the Australian Open.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. The NFL conference title game lines are out: The Eagles are 5.5-point favorites (-115) over the Commanders and the Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites (-120) against the Bills.

Henderson Scored 7 TDs in Past 7 Games for the Buckeyes

By Jack Dougherty

Ohio State -8.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
This is Ohio State’s championship to lose. The Buckeyes boast the most ferocious defense in the country, as they rank No. 1 in points allowed per game (12.2), yards allowed per play (3.9), and opponent red zone scoring percentage (61.1%). Notre Dame’s offensive success comes from dominating the point of attack and controlling the ground game, but that likely won’t happen with Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau on the other side. The Fighting Irish could keep this close if they add to their nation-leading 32 takeaways, but Ohio State has coughed up only two turnovers through three CFP games. 

Notre Dame team total under 17.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
The one unit in this matchup that has been consistent throughout the season has been Ohio State’s defense. The Buckeyes gave up more than 17 points only twice all year, and both came against Oregon. That’s no coincidence. The Ducks can beat Ohio State deep down the field with Dillon Gabriel, Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart, but the Fighting Irish don’t have the same weapons on the outside. Without the ability to generate explosive plays in the passing game, Notre Dame will have to be close to perfect to hit this over. 

Will Howard 250+ passing yards (+102 at FanDuel)
After foolishly trying (and failing) to beat Michigan at its own game, Ryan Day and Chip Kelly decided they wouldn’t make that mistake again. Since then, the Buckeyes have put the ball in Howard’s hand and let him sling it to the most talented wide receiver room in the country. Through three playoff games, Howard is 65/88 (73.9%) for 919 yards and six touchdowns, easily surpassing 250 yards in all three contests. The Fighting Irish have an excellent secondary, but they haven’t seen talents like Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka this year.

Riley Leonard 50+ rushing yards (+165 at DraftKings)
Ohio State has the tools to shut down Notre Dame’s power running game, but this defense hasn’t faced a QB running threat like Leonard this season. The closest was Dillon Gabriel, who rushed four times for 32 yards and a touchdown against OSU in the regular season, but he’s not nearly the dual-threat option Leonard poses. Leonard averages 57.7 rushing yards per game, and he’s coming off a season-high 18 carries against Penn State. Notre Dame knows it can’t beat Ohio State up the middle or down the field, so Leonard’s legs should be a major part of the offensive game plan. 

TreVeyon Henderson anytime touchdown (+105 at FanDuel)
We’re surprised to see a plus sign in front of Henderson’s anytime touchdown price. The speedy running back has been a huge piece of Ohio State’s offense in the College Football Playoff, racking up 365 total yards and five touchdowns through three games. Henderson has emerged as a reliable receiving threat down the stretch, as we saw last round when he took a screen pass 75 yards to the house against Texas in the CFP semifinals. He can score from anywhere on the field. With seven touchdowns in his past seven games, Henderson shouldn’t be priced in this range.

Ohio State - 1st drive result: Offensive touchdown (+230 at FanDuel)
Chip Kelly has been in his bag with scripted possessions in the postseason. In Round 1 against Tennessee, Ohio State went 75 yards in five plays after receiving the opening kickoff. The following week, it took the Buckeyes only three plays to find the end zone against Oregon. Ohio State didn’t receive the opening kick against Texas, but it went on a 10-play, 64-yard touchdown drive after forcing a punt to start the game. With more than a week to break down Notre Dame’s defense, Kelly should be able to orchestrate another successful opening drive.

Atlanta Won and Covered Past Three Games Against New York

By Craig Williams

Hawks +6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
The Hawks won and covered each of their past three meetings against the Knicks, including two in the Garden. They’ve been a thorn in New York’s side dating back to the 2021 NBA Playoffs, when Trae Young established himself as a showman. The primary issue isn’t even Young, though. The primary cog in the Knicks’ machine, Jalen Brunson, has struggled shooting against the Hawks this season and in recent contests overall. Making matters worse is the questionable status of Karl-Anthony Towns, who hasn’t played since Jan. 13 due to a thumb sprain.

Jalen Brunson under 28.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)
The Hawks have so much length and athleticism on the perimeter, it’s relatively easy for them to hound Brunson and make him take tough shots all game. They can throw waves of athletic, big wings at Brunson on switches or for stretches of the game, negating some of the craftiness and savviness he brings to the floor. It’s a small sample size, but the Hawks have held Brunson to 39.4% from the field, 49.7% true shooting, and a 100 offensive rating,  

Pistons +8.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
The Pistons, their past two losses notwithstanding, have been on a nice run, winning seven of their past 10 overall. They’re only 5-5 against the spread over that span — they failed to cover in their two recent defeats — but they’re playing quality defense to complement average offense over that span. We think that will be enough to keep the Pistons within range of a cover. They’ve demonstrated a knack for playing competitively in their first game on the road following multi-game homestands.

Anthony Edwards over 3.5 three-pointers made (+105 at ESPNBET)
We’re riding with the hot hand here. Edwards has averaged five treys on 10.6 attempts over his past 10 games, good for 47.2% clip. The Grizzlies are good about forcing opponents into bad percentages from beyond the arc, but they invite a lot of three-point attempts overall. Edwards was shut down in his only meeting this season, but that’s more likely to serve as an extra spark for Edwards, who is shooting and scoring more prolifically and efficiently on the road. 

Alcaraz vs. Djokovic Highlights Quarterfinal Action at the Australian Open

By Chris Farley

Novak Djokovic to win (+175 at DraftKings)
After a triumphant win against Djokovic at Wimbledon, Carlos Alcaraz ended last year's campaign on a downslide. After an unspeakable second round exit in the U.S. Open, he won the China Open in a 3-set final against Jannik Sinner a few months later. Otherwise it's been below expectations for the Spanish phenom, who's had a favorable schedule leading into this legendary rivalry match. Meanwhile, supremely motivated due to a fued with the Australian media, Djokovic looks in top-form, sweeping two top-26 men with only one tiebreaker needed the past two rounds. Despite the controversy, Melbourne has always been Novak's favorite venue (10 titles); Alcarez will need to be perfect.

Alexander Zverev vs. Tommy Paul over 39.5 games (-110 at FanDuel)
Paul owns a 2-0 record over Zverev, a factor that may not mean much in who wins Monday's match since it was so long ago (2022 at Indian Wells and 2020 at the Mexican Open), but we think it has big implications on the duration. Zverev is now considered the better competitor, ranked 2nd in the ATP, but Paul is well-positioned and won't fear his foe in the least. Paul is also coming off an easy 3-set victory over the previously white-hot Alejandro Fokina, showing off a stellar form by winning 84% of his first-serve and 54.5% of his second-serve points. Zverev looks just as crisp after dropping just 12 games to Ugo Humbert. This clash should be epic.

Alexander Zverev to win the first set and match (-132 at FanDuel)
Over the last four months of tennis, Zverev has been outstanding from the get-go of every clash — losing just one first set in his past 16 matches. The same cannot be said for Tommy Paul, who can start slow if his serve or confidence wanes. Paul even dropped a first set already in Melbourne, an early stumble against unranked Kei Nishikori in the second round. Zverev is the clear favorite for a reason, at the top of his game and as consistent as any player in 2024 leading into a new season. Even without as much practice time before Melbourne (he was working through an arm injury), Zverev has not lost his form or looked off kilter. This is a great angle to cheat the chalk.

Paula Badosa to win (+310 at FanDuel)
On first serve, Badosa won a glorious 82% of games in her last match against Olga Danilovic, a sterling sign for a player who struggled achieving any consistency last season. Of course, last year the Spaniard was coming off a stress fracture in her lower-back. She even considered quitting tennis because of it. Pushing through the pain, she took Gauff to the brink in two 2024 battles, winning the first sets in Rome and Beijing. She's showing no signs of slow-down as it stands now, seemingly fully healed from her back issues. Gauff looks great and she's mostly coasted at Melbourne, but Badosa has the power and confidence to create an upset, as the market suggests in this humble number.

Coco Gauff vs. Paula Badosa over 21.5 games (+105 at BetOnline)
A younger version of Gauff has fallen victim to now 27-year-old Badosa before. In fact, until last year, Badosa owned a 3-1 record over the American, two of them clean 2-set victories on hard and clay courts. Badosa's last two wins in Melbourne were very impressive, pushing past the upstart Marta Kostyuk and dominating Olga Danilovic following a few impressive victories by Danilovic (she kicked out 25th-ranked Samsonova and 7th-ranked Pegula before losing to Badosa). It also helps to know that, despite falling to Gauff twice in 2024, a less-able Badosa still pushed the match into the third set on both occasions. This won't be a walk in the park for Gauff.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova over 19.5 games (+115 at BetOnline)
Sabalenka has had little issue so far in Melbourne, most recently cruising by Mirra Andreeva, a player who's catching eyes around the world as possibly the next phenom of women's tennis. Against the Belarusian, she was just another victim (6-1 and 6-2). In truth, Sabalenka has been dominant, but Pavlyuchenkova is no spring-chicken of the tennis world. She's 33 years old and bringing a ton of experience with her, including a 2-1 record against Sabalenka. Her veteran confidence and aggression spurred a 6-0 final set over the formidable Donna Vekic in her last match, and she's winning 59% or better on second serves in her last two outings. We like her to push Sabalenka beyond expectations.

In the News 

• How bad losses for OSU and ND set the stage for tonight’s national title game.

• UConn’s Paige Bueckers scored 2,000 points faster than any player in team history.

• The NBA is headed to Paris this week for Wemby’s return home.

• Stafford will take time to consider his future after Rams’ playoff exit.

• The ACC is considering adding a play-in game or a four-team mini-playoff to decide who plays the regular season winner in its football conference championship game.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2:30pm: Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies on TNT for mid-day NBA on MLK Jr. Day (followed by Celtics vs. Warriors at 5pm)

• 5:30pm: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 8 Maryland in women’s college basketball action on FOX

• 7pm: Australian Open coverage on ESPN2

• 7:30pm: The national championship game between Ohio State and Notre Dame on ESPN

Photo of the Day