Bills vs. Chiefs Trends + 17 NBA and Tennis Bets to Consider Today

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Current Super Bowl odds

• NBA: Brooklyn is 1-7 to the under in the 2nd leg of back-to-backs

• NBA: Edwards made 4+ threes in 8 of past 10 games

• Tennis: Sabalenka has won 4 of her past 6 tournaments

• NBA Futures: Who is the NBA’s most improved player?

• NFL: Kincaid went over 30.5 receiving yards in 7 of past 8 road games

• Overtime: Pete Carroll could be headed to Vegas

The Eagles are the current favorite to win the Super Bowl (+175 on FanDuel), with the Chiefs at +210, Bills at +250, and Commanders at +850. Here’s a look at the odds for the potential matchups:

• Chiefs to beat the Eagles +360

• Eagles to beat the Chiefs +390

• Bills to beat the Eagles +420

• Eagles to beat the Bills +490

• Chiefs to beat the Commanders +750

• Bills to beat the Commanders +850

• Commanders to beat the Chiefs +1500

• Commanders to beat the Bills +1800

The Eagles are currently +1.5 underdogs against both the Chiefs and Bills.

In today’s newsletter, Craig and Jack have insights on 11 NBA bets, and Chris is tracking four Australian Open bets plus a couple of NBA futures. We also have a betting preview for Sunday’s Bills vs. Chiefs AFC Championship game (NFC is coming Friday).

— Abe Rakov

Hornets Average 4th-Most 3-Point Attempts, Grizzlies Allow 5th-Most 3-Point Shots

By Craig Williams

Nets under 50.5 points 1st half (-115 at FanDuel)
We’re leaning into the Nets’ offensive woes tonight and banking on them finishing below 51 points against the visiting Suns in the first half. The Nets are coming off of a 99-95 loss to the Knicks, and they’re 1-7 to the under in the second leg of back-to-backs this season. They’ve been particularly bad in this spot since injuries and trades depleted their roster, evidenced by sub-100 offensive ratings in three of their past four games on no rest, and an average of 48 first-half points in those contests.

Suns 1st half moneyline (-355 at Caesars)
We’re picking on the Nets again, who are 1-9 over their past 10 and playing arguably the game’s worst offensive basketball across that span. They rank dead last in offensive rating, 29th in points, and 21st in true shooting percentage over their past 10 games. The Suns, meanwhile, are 6-4 over their past 10, and enter play as the Western Conference’s No. 10 seed — good for a Play-in Tournament ticket — but are only two games back of the Lakers at No. 6. It’s fair to recognize the added motivation (in theory) the Suns have to bag a win against a team that is 3-11 as home underdogs.

Pistons +4.5 alternate spread (-145 at DraftKings)
The Pistons are on a roll right now, winning seven of their past 10 and getting back in the cover column after dropping two straight against the spread. They sit in seventh place in the Eastern Conference, half a game behind the Hawks for a proper playoff seed. They’ve been particularly good since the calendar flipped, ranking ninth in net rating in January. This matchup is in Atlanta, but we’ll still consider the points with the Pistons, who are 11-5-1 against the spread as road underdogs.

Hornets vs. Grizzlies over 237.5 points alternate total (-128 at FanDuel)
The Hornets are playing competent basketball over their past five games, finishing 4-1 straight up and 3-1-1 against the spread. They’re 12th in offensive rating over that span with three overs. The Grizzlies can score too. They rank second in offensive rating over their own past five games, and have hit the over in four out of five. Finally, this contest should be an uptempo affair, as both teams rank top 10 in pace over the past five games. Not to mention, the Hornets love to shoot threes — they average the fourth most three-point attempts on the season — while the Grizzlies allow teams to attempt the fifth most per game. 

Grizzlies -9.5 alternate spread (-150 at FanDuel)
We’re giving the Hornets a bit of respect here based on their recent form, in addition to their 10-5-1 mark as a road underdog. We still expect them to struggle in Memphis, where the Grizzlies are 16-5 straight-up and 14-7 against the spread. The key to watch in what has the ingredients of a track meet is the three-point shooting. As mentioned earlier, the Hornets are not shy about shooting threes, and the Grizzlies are not afraid to let opponents shoot from distance. However, they hold opponents to under 35% from beyond the arc. We think the Hornets are playing well enough of late to remain within relative reach of the Grizzlies, but their reliance on the three — and the Grizzlies’ ability to defend it — combined with the uptempo pace should allow the Grizzlies to ultimately finish by a comfortable margin.

Cavaliers vs. Rockets over 230.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
Both the Cavs and Rockets are in quality form at the moment, with the host Rockets entering tonight 7-3 over their past 10 with a 6-3-1 mark to the over. The Cavs, meanwhile, are 8-2 straight-up and 7-3 to the over. Both teams are tickling the twine of late, ranking top four in offensive rating over their past 10 contests. All while they play mediocre defense. The Cavs are 12-3 to the over as a road favorite and 14-5 to the over on the road overall. Given their road dominance (14-5 against the spread away from home), we won’t be surprised if the Cavs are able to establish the tempo and pave the way for a high-scoring contest.

Sabonis Grabs 37.9% of Contested Rebound Chances, Leads NBA with 14.2 Rebounds/Game

By Jack Dougherty

Keyonte George over 15.5 points (-111 at FanDuel)
You might think this is the perfect spot to fade George in the scoring department. The 21-year-old isn’t an efficient scorer, and the Thunder shut down opposing guards better than any other team in the league. But this number is simply too low based on the volume we’re expecting in this one. George has attempted at least 20 field-goal attempts in three straight games, which is something he did only once in his first 28 games. He averaged 25.0 points per game in that span even though he shot a combined 38.7% from the field in those three games. Based on his recent volume spike, George doesn’t have to be efficient to clear this line.

Anthony Edwards 4+ made threes (+105 at FanDuel)
This prop shouldn’t be priced at plus money. No one has drained more three-pointers this season than Edwards (182), and he’s cleared this line in eight of his past 10 games. The star shooting guard also loves this matchup against the Mavericks, as he’s gone a combined 11/20 from beyond the arc in two games against Dallas this year. The Mavs are dealing with a rash of injuries right now, and they’ve allowed three of their past four opponents to shoot better than 43% from deep. 

Trayce Jackson-Davis under 7.5 rebounds (+114 at FanDuel)
Jackson-Davis has gone over this line in four of his past six games, and he will be in charge of rebounding duties again with Draymond Green set to miss another game. The problem is this is a brutal matchup against Domantas Sabonis, who leads the NBA in rebounds per game (14.2) and pulls down 37.9% of his contested rebound chances. Jackson-Davis has had success crashing the offensive glass of late, but the Kings hold their opponents to the third-lowest offensive rebounding rate (22.3%) in the league. 

Dejounte Murray over 32.5 points + rebounds + assists (-113 at FanDuel)
Murray keeps on stuffing the stat sheet for New Orleans. The do-it-all point guard has cleared this line in six of his past nine games, averaging 35.0 points + rebounds + assists per game in that span. Now he gets one of the best possible matchups for point guards, as the Bucks give up the third-most points (26.2) and the second-most rebounds per game (6.9) to the position. Milwaukee has given up 50 PRA to Tyrese Maxey, 37 to De’Aaron Fox and 55 to Jalen Brunson in the past 10 days, and now it’s Murray’s turn. 

Kristaps Porzingis 8+ rebounds (+115 at FanDuel)
The Clippers have been one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA this season, but Ivica Zubac is the main reason for that. Zubac missed his first game of the season this week against the Bulls, and Chicago pounded Los Angeles on the glass for 17 offensive rebounds. With Zubac ruled out for Wednesday night, the Clippers are going to have a tough time keeping 7-foot-2 Porzingis off the boards. Porzingis averages 1.7 offensive rebounds per game this season, and he’s cleared this line in five of his past seven games.

Djokovic vs. Zverev Finished in Straight Sets Just Once in Past 7 Matchups

By Chris Farley

Novak Djokovic to win (-150 at DraftKings)
In the Monday newsletter, we were adamant that Djokovic would show up angry and oust the Spanish phenom, Carlos Alcaraz — and that's exactly what he did. And now the market is finally responding. The most accomplished Grand Slam winner is now the favorite against one of the hottest-running players in the world, as he should be. After dropping the first set on Monday, Djokovic rallied and pummeled Alcaraz (6-4, 6-3, 6-4). He also scored more breakpoints (6/13) and won at a 60% clip on his second serve. Alexander Zverev was magnificent in 2024, deserving of his new 2nd-place rank, but Djokovic looks as crisp as ever, and we're not sure there's another player in the world who can compete when he's in this form.

Djokovic vs. Zverev over 40.5 games (-110 at FanDuel)
We may like Djokovic, but this should be a war. First, no matter how sharp Djokovic is, Zverev has been outstanding in the first set, losing just once in his past 17 matches (Djokovic has lost two first sets already in Melbourne). Since we like Novak to win overall, it bodes well for this wager that the German starts strong. This has also been a close battle in recent history, each exchanging two wins over their past four matches. The winner has also sacrificed a set to their opposition in six of their past seven meetings. Djokovic is playing angry, but Zverev wants to be the new king of the mountain. This shouldn’t be one-sided.

Aryna Sabalenka 2-0 (-115 at DraftKings)
No tennis player in the world has been as consistent as Sabalenka, not even Iga Swiatek. The Belarusian has been excellent since August, dominant in last year's U.S. Open (she won five out of six matches in straight sets), and she's won four of her past six tournaments. After a little trip against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova on Monday, she roared back in the final set — in a match where she won 71% of her first-serve games. Paula Badosa is a fighter, in great form she's capable of beating the world's best, but this is also her very first visit to a major semifinal. Sabalenka has no mercy, and this is a significant level-up for an inexperienced underdog.

Sabalenka vs. Badosa's first set over 9.5 games (+100 at FanDuel)
Sabalenka is very likely to win this match, but that doesn't mean the first set will be easy. Badosa is notorious for her early energy, something she's been showing off in Melbourne. Not only has she not lost a first set, she's only lost an average of 2.8 games in five first sets at the Aussie Open. Badosa is an aggressive and powerful baseline returner that rarely gets overwhelmed. Sabalenka has had her number lately, winning three straight games against the Spaniard in 2024, but we know Badosa was suffering from severe lower-back issues; she almost quit tennis because of it. Rejuvenated and healthier than she's been in years, we like Badosa to challenge Sabalenka early.

Futures: Cunningham Leads Pistons in Points (24.5) and Assists (9.3)

By Chris Farley

NBA's 2024-2025 Most Improved Player: Cade Cunningham (-125 at FanDuel)
When the Detroit Pistons drafted Cade Cunningham, he was meant to be a savior for their organization. He took a few years to develop, as many do, but Cunningham is simply different this season — in almost every conceivable way. Showing moxie and confidence under new coach J.B. Bickerstaff, his averages have risen significantly. His points have been a ladder of progression, as low as 17 per game in 2021-2022 to 22.7 last season. This season he's averaging a healthy 24.5, leading his team in points and assists (9.3), along with adding 6.5 rebounds per game; all are two-ticks up from last year. And, most importantly, he's now the bonafide #1 on a winning team (Detroit is 22-21).

Rockets to win NBA Championship (+6000 at DraftKings)
Across all sports, we're seeing a burgeoning of new, young coaches. In the NBA it's Ime Udoka, the embroiled former Celtics' leader who fell to the right program at the right time. We know Houston's defense can play as well as any unit in the association (they were 2nd overall through the end of December), and now Udoka has his outfit scoring 124.9 points per 100 possessions over their past seven games, easily the NBA's best mark. They're also top 10 on both sides of the court and own an 11-2 record against all Western Conference teams that are two games over .500 (aka the top-tier). Houston has grit, chemistry, superior coaching, and explosive scorers; they can catch the league by surprise.

Preview: Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Trends and Insights

Buffalo Bills (13-4, 5-4 Away) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 8-0 Home)

• Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (-115), Bills +105 (-105)

• Moneyline: Chiefs -126, Bills +108

• Total (47.5): Over/Under -110

• Trends

  • The over hit in 8 of the past 11 Bills games

  • Buffalo is 10-4 ATS in their past 14 games

  • Chiefs player insights

    • Isiah Pacheco had at least 9 rushing attempts in 15 of his past 18 games (14.8 average)

    • DeAndre Hopkins went over 3.5 receiving targets in 15 of his past 17 home games (6.4 average)

    • Trent McDuffie made at least 4 tackles + assists in 14 of his past 16 home games (4.9 average)

  • Bills player insights

    • James Cook scored at least 1 TD in 5 of his past 6 road games (1.2 average)

    • Mack Hollins went over 11.5 longest reception in 5 straight games (16.0 average)

    • Dalton Kincaid earned over 30.5 receiving yards in 7 of his past 8 road games (44.6 average)

In the News 

• Greg Norman wants to debate Tiger Woods and/or Rory McIlroy on how LIV Golf helps them.

• Ichiro Suzuki earned 393 of 394 possible votes en route to the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

• The Raiders are now targeting Pete Carroll to be their next head coach.

• Are the Suns making small trades to make a bigger one?

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: A soccer friendly between the USMNT and Costa Rica on TNT

• 7:30pm: Timberwolves vs. Mavericks on ESPN (followed by the Warriors vs. Kings at 10pm)

• 9pm: No. 13 Texas A&M vs. No. 16 Ole Miss in men’s basketball on ESPN2

• 10pm: Panthers vs. Kings in NHL action on TNT

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