Analyzing Tonight's 3 NBA Games + A Look Ahead at NFL Conference Championship Weekend

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Abby talks to an Eagles’ insider

• NBA: 76ers have nine straight losses against the spread

• NFL: Ekeler has 7 catches for 67 yards through 2 playoff games

• NCAAM: Purdue is 8-34 from 3 over the past 3 games

• Tennis: Sabalenka had a 77% first serve win rate in her semifinal win

• NFL: Player betting trends for the Commanders vs. Eagles matchup

• Overtime: New Jags coach got the GM fired before he even started

Be sure to read Abby’s column this week: She talked to Eagles reporter Ashlyn Sullivan to learn why the franchise so successful, how Jalen Hurts is different, and what fans expect from the team. They also dove into this weekend’s game against the Commanders. You’ll have to read the full column on our website to see why Ashlyn ended by saying, “I pray for Jayden Daniels after hearing the chatter this week, I really do.”

In today’s newsletter, Craig has NBA insights, Jack analyzes this weekend’s NFL slate, Chris has men’s college basketball and tennis bets to watch, and we have betting trends for Sunday’s Commanders vs. Eagles game.

— Abe Rakov

Charlotte is 5-2-1 Against the Spread with a Rest Advantage

By Craig Williams

Hornets -2.5 first half (-120 at FanDuel)
The Hornets and Blazers are both playing an improved brand of basketball over their past 5-10 games. The Blazers enter Friday on a three-game win and cover streak, but they played last night and carry a 2-5 record against the spread in the second leg of back-to-backs — plus a 1-4 mark against the spread when they have the rest disadvantage. The Hornets are 4-2 straight-up over their past six, and 5-2-1 against the spread with a rest advantage. We’re banking on their form, the Blazers’ relative fatigue, and a little bit of home cooking to help the Hornets cover the first half tonight.

Hornets moneyline (-205 at Caesars)
We’re backing the Hornets to add a tally to their win column against the visiting Blazers, who are playing again after beating the Magic in Orlando last night. The flight is not long, but Friday will still mark the Blazers’ third game in four nights. They’re 3-4 straight-up in the second leg of back-to-backs and 2-3 with the rest disadvantage. The Hornets, meanwhile, have played competently over recent stretches — they’re 12th in offensive rating over their past six and seventh in defensive rating over their past 10. We like them to scrape together a W tonight against a Blazers team missing a lot of interior beef.

Cavs over 119.5 points (-106 at FanDuel)
The ugly season continues for the 76ers, who are in the midst of a seven-game skid during which they have the league’s worst defensive rating by a significant margin. They’re undermanned and undersized against a Cavaliers team that continues to operate at a high level overall, but especially offensively. The Cavs are 7-3 over their past 10 with the game’s 3rd-best offensive rating over that span, and scoring efficiently on the road isn’t a problem for them either. The 76ers allowed four of their past seven opponents to crack 120 points.

Cavs -8.5 alternate (-145 at DraftKings)
We’re picking on the 76ers, who are mired in a nasty slump — seven straight losses straight-up and nine straight losses against the spread. We certainly don’t expect them to win outright, and their failures against the spread further underscore how poorly they’re playing. We’re still going with a bit of a conservative approach here to account for the Cavs playing on the road — even though they’re strong away from home — and Philly’s pride. As well as the Cavs have played across the entire season, they’re only 5-5 against the spread over the past 10. We’ll lay fewer points and save the late-game stress for another wager.

Pelicans vs. Grizzlies over 242.5 points alternate (-130 at ESPNBET)
The Pelicans and Grizzlies are both hot right now, each winning four straight and playing well over their past 10 contests. They have played especially well offensively over their respective win streaks, both ranking in the top four in offensive rating. The Grizzlies have produced quality offense for longer stretches — they rank fourth in offensive rating over their past 15 games, for example — but the Pelicans’ production has steadily improved enough to the point we don’t have to look at their recent success as a mirage. Finally, the Grizzlies and Pelicans rank first and seventh, respectively, in pace over their past 15 games, suggesting an uptempo contest. 

Eagles Have Scored at Least 1 Rushing TD in Past 12 Games When Hurts Plays

By Jack Dougherty

Austin Ekeler over 24.5 receiving yards (-105 at BetMGM)
All you need to do to fall in love with this bet is look back at the last time Ekeler faced off against this Eagles defense. Back in Week 11, the veteran running back caught eight passes on nine targets and finished the game with 89 receiving yards, by far his highest mark of the season. The Commanders have also ramped up Ekeler’s receiving work in the playoffs, as he’s racked up seven catches for 67 yards through two postseason games. 

Jalen Hurts over 31.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
The only reason this prop is so low is that Hurts suffered a knee injury against the Rams that affected him in the second half of last week’s game. Sportsbooks aren’t expecting Hurts to be at 100% for the NFC Championship Game, but the Eagles QB was a full participant at practice Thursday. Videos from pratice showed Hurts moving comfortably in drills with no brace on his injured knee. If Hurts is even close to 100%, this line is way off. He’s cleared this number in 10 of his past 11 games, so let’s take advantage of the discount.

Most receiving yards — Championship Sunday: Xavier Worthy (+800 at DraftKings)
This is a vulnerable market to bet into because the favorites don’t inspire much confidence. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are extremely talented, but Philadelphia’s passing offense is nonexistent right now. Terry McLaurin put up just 70 total receiving yards in two games against the Eagles this season, and Josh Allen spreads the ball around too much for one player to have a huge game. Worthy has 37 targets over his past four games, and he went for 61 yards on just five targets against the Bills earlier this season. The rookie should be heavily involved in the game plan Sunday.

All teams to score 1+ rushing TD in the Conference Championships (+230 at DraftKings)
You can find this prop under Weekly Specials: All Teams Specials on DraftKings. Starting with the Eagles, they’ve scored at least one rushing touchdown in 12 straight games with Hurts under center — and Saquon Barkley has four rushing scores in two games against Washington this year. Speaking of the Commanders, they scored three rushing touchdowns last week against the Lions, and the Eagles are softer in the run game than the pass game. Even though the Bills and Chiefs have possibly the two best quarterbacks in the NFL, both teams love running the ball in the red zone and are extremely efficient in that regard. This price just feels too high with four teams that ride the running game near the goal line.

Super Bowl LIX anytime touchdown scorer — Jalen Hurts (+150 at FanDuel)
Checking out the lookahead odds for anytime touchdowns in the Super Bowl, Hurts is by far our favorite option to invest in now. We’ve already gone over how Hurts is likely more healthy than sportsbooks believe, and if the Eagles take down the Commanders as -280 favorites, he’ll have two full weeks to recover and get back to full health. The last time we saw Hurts in the Super Bowl, he rushed 15 times for 70 yards and three touchdowns. He’ll be -120 or worse in this market if Philadelphia reaches the Super Bowl. 

Marquette Has Won 7 in a Row Against Villanova, Covering in Each Matchup

By Chris Farley

Marquette -9.5 (-105 at Bovada)
Many public bettors will be taking Marquette Friday night, but that doesn't mean it's the "wrong side." Marquette has experienced nothing but success against Villanova over their past seven meetings, winning and covering in every one of those contests. KenPom ranks Villanova as the 52nd best team in the nation, despite having faced a rather soft schedule (90th). Their defense, which just allowed 64 points in a loss to a Georgetown offense that ranks 162nd on KenPom, was the primary reason why they didn't cover as 7.5-point favorites on Monday. Marquette is a top-13 program with a top-25 offense, at home, and they're fully confident in this matchup. We expect no surprises.

Purdue -4 (-110 consensus)
The 21st ranked Wolverines visit Mackey Arena with high hopes to capitalize off a Purdue squad that finally broke its 7-game winning streak to Ohio State on Tuesday, losing straight-up as 10-point home chalk. But the Boilermakers 2025 rise hasn't been flukey: They held four tough Big Ten opponents to just 60 points per game and knocked off two formidable West Coast programs by margin last week (WAS, ORE). Their loss on Tuesday was about their own flaws; turnovers, lazy defense, and poor three point shooting (8-of-34 3-pointers over the past three games) in the second half. At home, where Purdue likes to slow their opponent down and play gritty basketball, we'll look for Purdue's return to form in what should be a fantastic game.

No. 1 Sinner is 2-4 Against Australian Open Finals Opponent: No. 2 Zverev

By Chris Farley

Madison Keys +4 (+115 at FanDuel)
Aryna Sabalenka has continued her white-hot run since last summer, blowing by four out of five of her opponents in straight sets in Melbourne and decimating Paula Badosa (6-4, 6-2) in the semifinals. Her first serve has been outrageously good, earning a 77% first serve win rate against Badosa and a 71% or better first serve win-rate in four out of five. Still, we cannot ignore the masterful tennis of Madison Keys, either. She's been clutch in key moments against some of the world's best in Melbourne (Swiatek, Rybakina, Svitolina, Collins), and her fearless mentality saw her break Swiatek eight times in the semifinals. We expect another barnburner here.

Sabalenka vs. Keys over 2.5 sets (+136 at FanDuel)
Sabalenka only went three sets in one match at the Australian Open, an apparent loss of focus against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, but we see similarities in the championship matchup between her and Keys. Like Pavlyuchenkova's form against the Belarusian, Keys has managed to thrive when she's not serving, having won a whopping 53 receiving points against Swiatek in the semifinals. Overall, the American is averaging a stellar 44 winning receiving points in her four three-set matches in Melbourne, a ridiculous mark. And it's not like her competition has been stiff. Swiatek, Rybakina, Svitolina and Collins are all power-hitters. We're confident Keys will extend this match, too.

Jannik Sinner 3-1 (+270 at FanDuel)
Leading up to his matchup against Ben Shelton in the semifinals, a player whose meteoric rise had fans buzzing, many thought Sinner would experience his first real challenge. That didn't happen. For the third time in Melbourne, Sinner squashed his opponent in three straight sets (overall he's only lost two sets). We expect another swift victory for the world's #1 on Sunday, but we doubt it'll be as quick. As sharp as Sinner has been, Zverev has been in top form, too, and the German owns a 4-2 record against him. Zverev has also never been swept by Sinner. The Italian has been remarkable, but we can't expect absolute-perfection in what should be a compelling battle against a veteran foe.

Sinner vs. Zverev 1st set over 10.5 games (+160 at DraftKings)
This is an angle we continue to wager on and it continues to work; we like it even more in this matchup. As we've stated in this newsletter before, Zverev has been absolutely electric in the first set for months now. Unbelievably, the German has only lost one first set in his past 18 matches. Of course, Sinner has been studly in this area, too, having only lost two first sets in his past 17 matches. In any case, the two have surpassed 10.5 first set games in three of their past five meetings and neither were in as elite form as they are this January. 

Preview: Commanders vs. Eagles Betting Trends and Insights

Commanders (12-5, 5-3 Away) vs. Eagles (14-3, 8-1 Home)

• Spread: Eagles -6.5 (-102), Commanders +6.5 (-120)

  • 54% of the money is with the Eagles but 60% of the bets are with the Commanders

• Moneyline: Eagles -270, Commanders +220

  • 60% of the money and 59% of the bets are with the Commanders

• Total (47.5): Over/Under -110

  • 68% of the money and 77% of the bets are with the over

• Trends

  • The Eagles are 12-1 in their past 13 games as the favorite

  • Philadelphia

    • Jalen Hurts has rushed for at least 33 yards in 9 straight home games (51.9 average)

    • Saquon Barkley has rushed for at least 124 yards in 7 of his past 8 games vs. bottom-10 defenses for rushing yards allowed (141.9 average)

    • DeVonta Smith has made at least 4 receptions in 7 straight home games (5.3 average)

    • Jake Elliott has gone over 6.5 kicking points in 5 straight home games (9.6 average)

  • Washington

    • Jayden Daniels has gone over 66.8% completion rate in 8 of his past 9 road games (72.6% average)

    • Terry McLaurin has scored at least 1 TD in 8 of his past 9 road games (1.2 average)

    • Austin Ekeler has gone over 12.5 longest reception in 8 straight road games (22.4 average)

    • Brian Robinson Jr. had at least 10 rushes in 8 of his past 9 road games (14.6 average)

In the News 

• Bucs' OC Coen changed his mind and took the Jaguars’ head coaching job after Jacksonville fired its GM.

• Pete Carroll is headed to Vegas to be head coach of the Raiders.

• Joe Burrow is a finalist for NFL MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, and Comeback Player of the Year.

• Utah Hockey Club can’t trademark “Utah Yetis,” so the final name is still up in the air.

• Saleh is going back to SF as defensive coordinator.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 5pm: No. 5 LSU vs. No. 2 South Carolina in a women’s college basketball showdown on ESPN

• 7:30pm: Golden Knights vs. Stars for Friday Night Hockey on ESPN

• 8pm: No. 21 Michigan vs. No. 11 Purdue in men’s college basketball on FOX

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