A First Look at Super Bowl Odds and Insights on 15 NBA Bets

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Super Bowl bets

• NBA: Cavs are 4-6 against the spread over their past 10

• NBA: Booker leads the league in potential assists (39) in past 2

• NBA: Cunningham scored 29 or more points in 7 of his past 11

• NCAAM: 10 Betting Trends Across 5 of Today’s Biggest Games

• Overtime: More calls go Kansas City’s way

We’re getting a rematch of Super Bowl LVII, as the Eagles blew out the Commanders and the Chiefs held off the Bills to head to New Orleans. As we wrote yesterday, bettors were with the underdogs — so after the most “customer-friendly” NFL season in nearly 20 years, the sportsbooks made some money yesterday.

The Chiefs are looking to become the first NFL team in history to three-peat, while the Eagles are trying to win their second-ever Super Bowl. Here’s where FanDuel has the game to start:

• Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (-115), Eagles +1.5 (-105)

  • KC 9-9-1; PHI 14-6-0

• Moneyline: Chiefs -132, Eagles +112

  • KC 17-2; PHI 17-3

• Total (49.5): Over -105, Under -115

  • KC 8-11; PHI 9-11

• Other Bets

  • Any Time TD Scorers: Saquon Barkley (-190), Jalen Hurts (-110), Travis Kelce (+120), Xavier Worthy (+140), Kareem Hunt (+140)

  • Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards (251.5): Over/Under -114

  • Jalen Hurts Passing Yards (210.5): Over/Under -114

  • Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards (112.5): Over/Under -114

  • Travis Kelce Receiving Yards (64.5): Over/Under -114

  • A.J. Brown Receiving Yards (69.5): Over/Under -114

  • Jalen Hurts + Patrick Mahomes to Each Record 15+ Passing Yards in Each Quarter: -105

Nine teams have won back-to-back championships, and the Chiefs are the first franchise to even make it back to the Super Bowl for a shot at history.

In today’s newsletter, we have full NBA coverage from Craig, Chris and Jack. We also give you betting trends for five of today’s biggest men’s college basketball games.

— Abe Rakov

Grizzlies and Knicks Come into Tonight’s Game with 1st and 5th-Rated Offenses over Past 6

By Craig Williams

Kings -8.5 alternate (-155 at DraftKings)
The Kings have been playing good basketball since Doug Christie took over as the interim head coach. They have the league’s sixth-best offensive rating over Christie’s 14-game tenure. The Nets’ defensive rating ranks 28th over that span. Brooklyn likes to play at a deliberate pace, but if they struggle to control tempo against the Kings, who are playing at the league’s fourth-quickest pace over the aforementioned 14-game span, then this game could get out of hand for the host Nets.

Nets under 106.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Nets are struggling defensively, but making matters worse for themselves —  they’re 1-9 straight-up and 4-6 against the spread over their past 10 — is that they can’t score right now either. They rank last in the league in offensive rating over their past 10, and the actual figure is lower over their current six-game losing streak. It appears they’re getting closer to welcoming top scorer Cam Thomas (hamstring) back into the fold, but we’re still fading the Nets offensively until he’s back and in rhythm.

Grizzlies vs. Knicks over 238 points alternate (-150 at bet365)
The Grizzlies and Knicks are riding six- and three-game winning streaks, respectively. They’re both playing particularly well on the offensive side of the floor. The Grizzlies have the game’s best offensive rating over the past six games and are playing at the game’s fifth-fastest pace over that span. The Knicks are no slouch in the offensive rating department, ranking fifth in the league over their own win streak. The Knicks have been a bit more porous defensively of late, a concerning trend against the Grizzlies. They’re favored to win, but we think they may need to pick up their pace in order to keep up with the Grizzlies’ high-flying offense.

Pistons +12.5 alternate (-150 at DraftKings)
The Pistons are a different team today from what they were when they met the Cavaliers on October 25th. Their full-season offensive rating is -0.8, but it’s a much better 2.9 over their past 15 games, a stretch over which they’re 10-5. They’re also 12-6-1 as road underdogs and perform better on the road across a number of traditional and advanced metrics. The Cavs have lost three in a row, straight-up and against the spread, and are 4-6 against the spread over their past 10. Even if they ultimately prevail, we still like the Pistons to make it a contest.

Magic over 104.5 points (-110 at Caesars)
The Magic are much closer to whole thanks to the returns of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, their top two players in usage rate. They were among the worst offensive teams in the NBA while those two were absent but should be expected to perform more like a top-third offensive unit. They’re fresh off of a win and cover against a Pistons team that is playing well — and that plays particularly well on the road — so we need to start looking at the Magic as a solid playoff-bound squad, not the offensively challenged group we have become accustomed to over the past several weeks.

Rockets over 107.5 points alternate (-118 at BetMGM)
The Rockets are playing well at the moment, and they’ve been especially effective on the offensive side of the floor. They’re 8-2 over their past 10 with the league’s third-best offensive rating over that span. They just beat the Cavs in back-to-back games, including in Cleveland, so they are not likely to be overwhelmed against a very good Celtics team. Defense hasn’t been the Rockets’ strength over their recent stretch of success, so we expect them to lean into their offensive form in order to keep this one competitive. 

Wizards Give Up Most Points and 2nd-Most Rebounds Per Game to Centers

By Jack Dougherty

Onyeka Okongwu over 2.5 assists (-154 at DraftKings)
The Hawks will be without Trae Young and Jalen Johnson on Monday night, leaving 16.5 assists per game up for grabs. It will be a team effort from Atlanta on the playmaking front, but this number for Okongwu seems a touch low. The big man has cleared this line in three straight games and six of his past nine, and he dished out seven assists the last time Young and Johnson were both ruled out. Okongwu should get plenty of run in this matchup and see enough opportunities to hit this mark.

Daniel Gafford over 27.5 points + rebounds (-105 at DraftKings)
The Wizards don’t do anything well defensively, but they especially struggle to contain athletic big men. Washington has given up 20 points and 19 rebounds to Nick Richards, 29 and 16 to Anthony Davis and 15 rebounds to Trayce Jackson-Davis over the past 10 days. The Wizards now surrender the most points per game (27.93) and second-most rebounds per game (16.84) to opposing centers. Gafford has averaged 28.8 minutes and 29.3 points + rebounds per game since Dereck Lively II went down with an ankle injury, and this is the best possible matchup for him.

Devin Booker over 6.5 assists (+116 at FanDuel)
This price is off based on how well Booker is seeing the court. Booker leads the NBA in potential assists (39) over his past two games, but he converted on only 13 of them. For reference, Nikola Jokic is tied with Booker with 39 potential assists in the same span, but he converted on 28. That bad luck is due to flip for Booker, and that should start against a Clippers defense that’s given up at least eight assists to an opposing player in five straight games. 

James Harden over 14.5 assists + rebounds (-105 at DraftKings)
Harden has been a stat-stuffing machine of late. The veteran point guard is averaging 10.2 assists and 5.7 rebounds per game over his past seven starts, clearing this mark in five of those seven. He’s also ramping up his playmaking, as he ranks third in the NBA with 18.0 potential assists per game over his past three games. This is a great matchup for Harden against a Suns team that struggles to defend opposing point guards. In two games against Phoenix this season, Harden put up 20 and 23 assists + rebounds. 

James Harden to record a triple-double (+2200 at DraftKings)
Although Harden has only recorded two triple-doubles all season, this could be worth a sprinkle in a strong matchup. One of those triple-doubles came against the Suns in October, and the other came just a few days ago against the Wizards. Harden is playing with a ton of confidence right now, and he clearly loves this matchup against Devin Booker and Tyus Jones.  

Rockets Sport League’s 4th-Best Offense Over Past 11 Games

By Chris Farley

Lakers -5.5 (-110 consensus)
Many NBA teams are still finding themselves this season; the Lakers appear to know exactly who they are. The Lake-show have been impressive the past 12 days, winning five out of seven contests, including two marquee victories against the Celtics and Warriors. Playing slowly (they rank 30th in pace over the same span), the Lakers bleed clock and rely on LeBron and Anthony Davis to conquer in the painted area, where they're 10th in points per game (49.7). Lately Charlotte's offense has been improving (15th over their past seven), but they're young and inconsistent and even at home, we don't trust them against a Lakers' squad that's playing their best right now.

Cade Cunningham over 26.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)
Cade Cunningham just keeps getting better. The Pistons are dealing with a slew of injuries, without Jaden Ivey and possibly without Tobias Harris again tonight, leaving more responsibility on Cunningham and his colleagues to pick up the slack. The former Oklahoma State star is doing just that, scoring 29 or more points in seven of his past 11 games, including three straight against a few quality defenses (HOU, not so much ATL, and ORL). In the opening week of NBA action, he had one of his most efficient scoring games of the season against Cleveland, going 14-24 for 33 points. We like a repeat performance tonight.

Rockets +6.5 (-110 consensus)
Expectations for the Boston Celtics will always be sky-high as long as their roster remains intact, but there's no denying that they have not been in championship form lately. Their defense has held up, for the most part, but over their past 11 games they rank just 17th in offensive efficiency, losing five contests during that stretch. Ime Udoka's Rockets, who lost to his former team earlier this month, has turned Houston into one of the best offenses in the NBA over the same span, ranked 4th overall (and 9th in net rating). This game will matter to Udoka and his locker room.

Karl-Anthony Towns under 23.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
Towns, a big man fully capable of controlling the painted area, has always been very reluctant to do so. He'll likely oppose Jaren Jackson Jr. in Monday's clash, a matchup we don't love for the Knicks' star on either side of the court. "Triple-J" is a notorious defensive stalwart, earning NBA Defensive Player of the Year in the 2023 season and Defensive Player of the Month accolades this past December. When facing Towns, Jackson has limited his foe to just 20 points per game in 19 meetings. Memphis is exceptional at preventing easy shots, ranked 3rd in opponent shooting percentage, which means Towns will need to shoot hyper-efficiently to eclipse this total. We just don't see it.

Betting Trends for 5 of Tonight’s Biggest Men’s College Basketball Games

NC State (9-10, 2-6 ACC) vs. No. 2 Duke (17-2, 9-0 ACC)

• Duke’s Cooper Flagg has at least 1 steal in 7 home games in a row (2.0 average)

• The Wolfpack’s Marcus Hill has gone over 14.5 points + rebounds in 14 of his past 15 road games (22.3 average)

No. 3 Iowa State (17-2, 7-1 Big 12) vs. Arizona (13-6, 7-1 Big 12)

• The Cyclones are 10-2 against the spread over their past 12 road games

• Arizona’s Caleb Love made at least 2 three pointers in 17 of his past 19 home games (2.9 average)

Penn State (13-7, 3-6 Big Ten) vs. No. 21 Michigan (14-5, 6-2 Big Ten)

• The over hit in 4 of the past 5 Michigan home games

• Penn State’s Zach Hicks grabbed at least 5 rebounds in 9 of his past 11 road games (5.5 average)

Iowa (13-7, 4-5 Big Ten) vs. Ohio State (11-8, 3-5 Big Ten)

• The Hawkeyes’ Drew Thelwell has at least 2 assists in 18 straight road games (5.1 average)

• Ohio State’s Micah Parrish exceeded 11.5 points in 5 of his past 6 home games (14.0 average)

UCLA (14-6, 5-4 Big Ten) vs. USC (12-7, 4-4 Big Ten)

• The Trojans’ Wesley Yates III has gone over 15.5 points + rebounds + assists in 6 straight games (21.5 average)

• UCLA’s Kobe Johnson exceeded 14.5 points + rebounds in 6 of his past 7 road games (16.4 average)

In the News 

• The Bears are hiring a 28-year-old offensive coordinator.

• The refs-are-for-the-Chiefs conspiracy theorists got more for their files yesterday.

• Michael Irvin said the Cowboys “lost an opportunity” by hiring Brian Schottenheimer as head coach.

• Jewell Loyd is headed to Vegas and Kelsey Plum is going to LA after a massive WNBA trade.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: Pistons vs. Cavaliers on NBA TV

• 10pm: UCLA vs. USC on FS1 for a Big Ten men’s college basketball rivalry matchup

• 10:30pm: Two 7-1 Big 12 teams face off as No. 3 Iowa State plays at Arizona on ESPN

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