Cavs Defense has Dropped to 26th this Month, Face Butler-less Heat in Miami

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Launching our referral program

• NBA: Indiana scores 119 points per game at home in January

• NBA: The Spurs have a bottom-10 offensive rating over their past 10

• Soccer: Bayern’s UCL opponent concedes 3.4 goals per game

• NCAAM: Alabama’s Grant Nelson is averaging 8.9 rebounds over past 12

• Golf: McCarthy ranks No. 1 in strokes gained from putting on Poa greens

• Overtime: Which 5 NFL teams are coached by their former players?

With the Super Bowl just 11 days away, we’re launching our referral program so more people can get our insights and analysis leading up to the big game. All you have to do is get your friends and family to sign up for our free newsletter, and we’ll give you stuff: 

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It’s easy: Just send this link to anyone who you think might want Sportmoney and you get credit when they subscribe:

We’ll also have daily, weekly and monthly contests to see who can get the most subscribers signed up — so watch for that soon.

In today’s newsletter, Chris and Craig cover 12 NBA bets, Sam has Champions League soccer insights, and Jack looks ahead at this week’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

— Abe Rakov

Herro Scored 34 Points and Added 7 Assists Last Time Out Against Cleveland

By Chris Farley

Pacers -5.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
There's a major difference between the Pistons and Pacers that should be a major concern for any Detroit backers tonight — offense. Cade Cunningham and the Pistons are burgeoning into a new era, one that has them 8th in the East, a playoff team if it all started today. Most of that success has come from their defense, a stout group that prides itself on physical, disciplined resistance. The problem is that the Pacers have been just as good this month (4th overall), and Indiana's top-ranked offense (119 points per game at home in January) will present a huge challenge for a Pistons' roster that ranks in the back end of offensive efficiency this month.

Cade Cunningham over 26.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
Cunningham continues his tear through January, averaging 26.4 points per game and eclipsing 30 points in five starts this month. He'll need to be at his best if the Pistons have a chance at hanging around against the Pacers, a program that's won 9 of 11 and averages 119 points at home in the same span. While Jaden Ivey continues to sit out (17.6 points per game this season), Cunningham has a bigger responsibility, and the rest of his colleagues are unlikely to thrive against an Indiana defense that's also top-5 this month. Expect the young buck to be at his best while his team fights to stay within distance on Wednesday night.

Raptors -6.5 (-110 at BetOnline)
The NBA is a very volatile sport and it makes trusting the market even tougher, especially when there's a matchup between two poor programs. The Wizards and Raptors will not be winning an NBA Championship this season, but at least the latter is showing signs of improvement. Toronto has won four games in a row and six of their past seven, including impressive victories against Golden State, Boston (by 13!), and Orlando. The Wizards are the consensus worst team in the NBA (6-39) and not much better against the spread (17-26-2, 39.5%). They've also lost 14 games in a row by an average margin of 18 points per game. The table is set, Toronto!

Heat +8 (-105 at BetOnline)
The Heat have had a tumultuous season. Their longtime star, Jimmy Butler, is now suspended indefinitely after walking out of a recent team practice. Butler wants to be traded, and his comrades are probably done with his nonsense, too. The all-but-certain end of Butler's reign in Miami means the beginning of a new era for a team that's still very much in playoff contention; 1st in their division and 6th in their conference. The Cavaliers have been the East's top team, but lately they've struggled — dropping to 26th on defense in January and losing three of their past four. Tyler Herro (10-19, 34 points in meeting one) and the Heat beat Cleveland once, and we love that we're getting this many points on a home team that just wants to play basketball.

Bulls +14.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
In case you haven't heard, the Bulls are giant-killers (and they've been this way for a few seasons). Bulls' coach Billy Donovan may not produce winning playoff programs, but he sure knows how to get his guys amped up against the elites in the regular season. Just two days ago, Chicago beat the Nuggets by eight points as 9.5-home underdogs. Since November 29th, the Bulls are 3-1 ATS as an underdog of 9.5-points or more, and lately their opponent has been sputtering. The Celtics, aka the reigning champions, are just 8-6 straight up and have dropped to just 13th in offensive efficiency this month. They do not deserve this designation, whether they're at home or not.

Nuggets vs. Knicks over 239.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
Like any modern NBA outfit, if you're underperforming on both sides of the court, it helps to find an offensive rhythm first. The Nuggets have done just that, ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency and scoring an amazing 120.8 points per game in January. Even better for this wager, their pace has dramatically increased, up to 9th in tempo this month. New York continues to be the same team night in, night out, producing plenty of offense (117.6 points per game in January), but not finding much resistance, ranked in the bottom half of the NBA in opponent three point percentage, shooting percentage, and true shooting percentage. We expect fireworks.

OKC is 8-1 with a Rest Advantage, But Just 4-4-1 Against the Spread

By Craig Williams

Thunder -8.5 alternate (-140 at FanDuel) 
The Warriors enter tonight 2-5 against the spread on no rest and 2-7 with the rest disadvantage. Oklahoma City is only 4-4-1 against the spread with a rest advantage, but they are 8-1 straight-up. The Thunder have won four of their past five against the Warriors, but they’re only 2-2-1 against the spread in those contests. We envision the Thunder overwhelming the Warriors with their pace and athleticism — they’re top four in both offensive and defensive rating over their past 10 — but we’re going to look at the shorter odds based on their recent form against the spread. 

Warriors under -110.5 points alternate (-150 at DraftKings)
The Warriors are 2-5 to the under on zero days rest and 4-5 to the under when they have the rest disadvantage. The Thunder own the game’s fourth-best defensive rating over their past 10 games, a stretch over which they’re 7-3. The Warriors rate middle-of-the-pack in offensive rating over their past 10 games, but that’s not a stretch that included a lot of defensive juggernauts. It will help the Warriors’ cause if Stephen Curry (knee) plays after sitting out last night’s win over the Jazz, but we still expect a relatively low-scoring performance from the hosts.  

Wolves over 107.5 points alternate (-150 at DraftKings)
The Wolves and Suns are both playing well, entering play riding three-game win streaks. Both teams’ modest streak is built on solid offense and stingy defense. We’re a bit less bullish on the Suns’ defensive performance over this small sample of success though. You should be expected to put up good defensive metrics against the Nets and Wizards over a three-game stretch. The Wolves are a bit less effective offensively on the road, so we’re going to give ourselves a little bit of cushion in this spot.

Clippers vs. Spurs under 223 points (-110 at Caesars)
The Clippers are 6-4 over their past 10 games with the league’s best defensive rating over that span. We’re banking on this form traveling to San Antonio for a visit with the Spurs. The Spurs are 12-10 at home compared to 7-12 on the road, so we expect a better showing from what they’ve delivered against tough competition over their past 10 games. Still, they’ve had a bottom-10 offensive rating over their past 10, and we’re not expecting them to turn the corner against a stingy Clippers unit.

Mavericks moneyline (-118 at BetMGM)
The Mavericks are visiting a Pelicans team that is 0-3 straight-up and against the spread over their past three games. It’s a tiny sample, but they have the league’s worst net rating over that span, compared to the Mavericks, who rank 10th in that department over the same three-game sample. The Pelicans might pick things up on their home floor, but they’re only 8-16 at the Smoothie King Center, so we’re not expecting that much of a bump.  

Daniel Gafford -2.5 rebounds vs. Yves Missi (-115 at DraftKings)
Gafford has really taken off since the Mavs lost Dereck Lively to a long-term injury. He’s started seven games in Lively’s stead, over which he’s averaged 10.4 rebounds in 28.1 minutes. That seven-game stretch includes four double-digit rebound performances and two games with 15 boards. Missi, meanwhile, has missed time with an illness and is only averaging 6.0 rebounds in 24.6 minutes over his past seven with zero double-digit rebound games.

Haaland Has as Many Champions League Goals as All of Club Brugge

By Sam Farley

Man City -2 (+125 at FanDuel)

• Man City are on the outside looking in and two points off a spot in the playoffs — a win over Club Brugge would see them cement that spot, so they simply have to win this game

• City have scored 15 goals in the competition so far and have Erling Haaland up front, one of the world’s in form strikers (he has as many goals in this year’s Champions League as the whole Club Brugge team combined)

Juventus vs Benfica — Both Teams to Score (-121 at BetRivers)

• Juventus have seen their opposition score in four of seven UCL games so far and have scored in four themselves — they’ll fancy their chances of scoring against a Benfica defense who have given up 12 goals in just seven games

• While Benfica leak goals they’re prolific scorers, averaging two goals scored per game (they scored four goals against Barcelona, who have already qualified, last week)

Atalanta to Win or Draw (+112 at BetRivers)

• Barcelona have locked in their spot in the next round and are likely to heavily rotate their team, resting their best players for important games ahead in La Liga

• Atalanta currently sit inside the top seven and a win, or potentially even a draw, could mean they avoid the extra games of the play-offs — they’re in great form and are the 3rd-highest scoring team, so they have a great chance of getting something against a second-string Barca team

Lille vs Feyenoord - Both Teams to Score (-155 at BetRivers)

• Both Lille and Feyenoord sit on 13 points, just outside the top eight, which would meaning that a win would quite possibly mean that they don’t need to compete in the playoff — so they’ll both be going for it

• Both Feyenoord and Lille have scored in six of seven UCL games, and both have conceded in six of seven also

Bayern Munich -3 (-188 at Bet365)

• A win could give Bayern a spot in the next round without the need for a playoff appearance, while Slovan Bratislava have nothing to play for

• Slovan Bratislava have lost all seven games so far, conceding an average of 3.4 goals per game (in three away games they’ve conceded 10 goals and scored just twice, with Bayern having scored more goals so far than any of the three teams that Bratislava have faced on the road)

Betting Trends: No. 1 Auburn Has Struggled Against the Spread on the Road

No. 1 Auburn (18-1, 6-0 SEC) vs. LSU (12-7, 1-5 SEC)

• Auburn is 1-5 against the spread in their past 6 road games

• LSU’s Cam Carter earned 21.5 points + rebounds + assists in 8 straight games (26.1 average)

No. 6 Houston (16-3, 8-0 Big 12) vs. West Virginia (13-6, 4-4 Big 12)

• Houston’s J'Wan Roberts has collected over 18.5 points + rebounds in 9 of his past 10 road games (25.3 average)

• The Mountaineers’ Javon Small scored at least 17 points in 5 of his past 6 home games (21.3 average)

No. 17 Wisconsin (16-4, 6-3 Big Ten) vs. Maryland (16-5, 6-4 Big Ten)

• Maryland’s Ja'Kobi Gillespie scored at least 15 points in 6 of his past 7 games (18.1 average)

• The over hit in 8 of the past 9 Badgers road games

No. 4 Alabama (17-3, 6-1 SEC) vs. No. 14 Mississippi State (16-4, 4-3 SEC)

• Alabama’s Grant Nelson grabbed at least 8 rebounds in 10 of his past 12 games (8.9 average)

• Mississippi State’s Cameron Matthews notched over 2.5 steals in 6 of his past 7 home games (3.7 average)

Texas (14-6, 3-4 SEC) vs. No. 23 Ole Miss (15-5, 4-3 SEC)

• Ole Miss is 11-1 in their past 12 games as a favorite

• The Longhorns’ Tramon Mark scored at least 10 points in 7 straight road games (16.1 average)

Day Has Nine Top-10 Finishes in 14 Career Appearances at Pebble Beach Pro-AM

By Jack Dougherty

Denny McCarthy top-20 finish (+225 at DraftKings)
McCarthy is normally a great target for finishing position bets on short golf courses. The 31-year-old can struggle on modern courses because he’s one of the shortest hitters on the PGA Tour, but he makes up for it with his excellent short game. This place is all about wedge play and a hot putter, and McCarthy ranks No. 1 in the field in strokes gained from putting on Poa greens over the past three years. That’s propelled him to finishes of T26, T4 and T12 in his past three stops at Pebble.

Tom Hoge top-20 finish (+250 at DraftKings)
You’re probably tired of hearing it by now, but the name of the game at Pebble Beach and Spyglass is wedge play and putting. Well, Hoge ranked second on the PGA Tour last season in approaches from 100-125 yards and third in approaches from 125-150 yards. He’s not normally a great putter, but the American has gained strokes on the green in three straight starts to begin the season. Hoge also leads this field in strokes gained from putting at Pebble Beach over the last four years, which led to a win and three top-12 finishes in that span.

Jason Day top-10 finish (+300 at FanDuel)
Some golf courses just bring out the best in certain players, and Pebble Beach does exactly that to Day. In 14 career appearances at this tournament, the Australian has recorded nine top-10 finishes and never missed a cut. Aside from his stellar course history, Day is also striking the ball extremely well to open up the 2025 campaign. He ranks 10th in this field in strokes gained on approach and ninth in strokes gained from tee to green this month. The problem? He’s been ice cold with the putter, but that should flip at Pebble Beach, where he’s gained strokes on the green in seven straight starts.

Tournament matchup: Ludvig Aberg > Hideki Matsuyama (-110 at DraftKings)
Aberg is being somewhat disrespected by oddsmakers this week because he came down with the flu at the Farmers Insurance Open and finished 75-74-79 to drop to T42. Before that, though, he fired a 63 to take the first-round lead by two shots. Assuming Aberg is past his illness and back to 100%, he should be a much bigger favorite in this matchup. He finished runner-up to Wyndham Clark last year in his first career start at Pebble Beach, gaining strokes in all four major categories. Aberg is a model of consistency when healthy, while Matsuyama has gone backward with T16 and T32 finishes after his season-opening win at The Sentry. 

Tom Kim to win (+6600 at BetMGM)
What has Kim done to fall below Max Greyserman, Maverick McNealy, Will Zalatoris and others on the outright odds board? Sure, the 22-year-old isn’t off to a great start in 2025 because his putter has been cold, but oddsmakers seem to have forgotten he also finished runner-up to Scottie Scheffler at the Hero World Challenge last month and lost in a playoff at the Genesis Championship in his lone DP World Tour start this past fall. That makes three runner-up finishes in his past 11 starts. All three of Kim’s PGA Tour victories came on short, positional golf courses comparable to Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill, so this price feels too high in an 80-man field. 

In the News 

• Raiders’ owner Mark Davis is happy to have Tom Brady helping with football operations because Jon Gruden’s “head was chopped off. And we were put in a really bad position as an organization."

• Neymar is headed back to Brazil after only seven matches with his Saudi club.

• Five NFL head coaches lead teams they played for during their career.

• Related: Grading the NFL’s coaching hires.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: All 36 Champions League teams are in action on Paramount+

• 7pm: Flyers vs. Devils for the NHL on TNT (followed by Penguins vs. Utah Hockey Club at 9:30pm)

• 7:30pm: Nuggets vs. Knicks for the NBA on ESPN (followed by Thunder vs. Warriors at 10pm)

• 9pm: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 14 Mississippi State in men’s college basketball action on SEC Network

Photo of the Day