7 Super Bowl Bets to Watch + NBA and College Basketball Insights

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: It’s (basically) Super Bowl Week!

• NFL: 7 Super Bowl bets to watch

• NBA: Toronto has the No. 3 defensive rating over the past 10

• NBA: Booker averaged 17.8 potential assists in past 3

• NCAAM: Georgetown is 17-2 in their past 19 games as the favorite

• Overtime: “The Refrigerator” Perry lost Caesars a lot of money in the 1986 Super Bowl

Last year, an estimated 68 million people bet around $23 billion on the Super Bowl. With online sports betting legal in another state this year (North Carolina), that number could get even higher.

But you don’t have to wait until next Sunday to get going. We’re starting our Super Bowl coverage today: Chris has a look ahead at seven Super Bowl bets. And in her column this week, Abby takes you behind the scenes at Super Bowl Week, as she was in Vegas last year — you can read it at Sportmoney.com. Next week we’ll have trends, insights and research every day leading up to the big game in New Orleans.

Also in today’s newsletter, Jack and Craig cover the full NBA slate and we have betting trends for six men’s college basketball games.

— Abe Rakov

Could Super Bowl LIX be the Saquon Barkley Show?

By Chris Farley

Chiefs -1.5 (-106 at Bovada)
We're comfortable with a -1.5 instead of a moneyline on Kansas City, since only 4.4% of games ended on a 1-point margin this season. New overtime playoff rules add a different element, but it's not a high enough probability to avoid the spread. In any case, while Philadelphia profiles better on paper (1st in total defense, top-5 offensively), the Chiefs bring an immeasurable synergy between their head coach and quarterback, arguably the best defensive coordinator of all time, and the clutch playmaking of Patrick Mahomes — who went 5-9 on third down last week against Buffalo and seems to always have an edge in high-pressure moments. Love them or hate them, the Chiefs just know how to win.

Saquon Barkley over 112.5 rushing yards (-110 on FanDuel)
By now it's fair to say that not one defense has really slowed down Barkley. In the games that matter most, aka the NFL playoffs, Barkley has already stacked up 442 yards against three heavyweight contenders. The former Penn State standout looks like a completely different player behind a comparable offensive line, averaging 125 rushing yards per game and carrying the ball more than any other back in the NFL this season (345). Kansas City certainly brings an exceptional defense, but it took one play for Barkley to break open against a familiar foe last weekend (first rush went for 50 yards and a touchdown), and by now the Eagles know who their best player is. Don't overthink this.

Parlay: Eagles win first half + Chiefs win full game (+596 on FanDuel)
This is a wager we hit two years ago. The Eagles were one of the slowest starters in the NFL earlier this season, rarely able to score on their opening possession, but since the playoffs that script has flipped. In this year's playoffs, Philadelphia has scored 14, 13, and 10 in the first quarter against their opponents, averaging 12.3 points in the first 15 minutes. Entering Super Bowl LIX they've won four straight first halves. The Eagles also have the more talented offensive roster, a group of dynamic, explosive playmakers surrounding Jalen Hurts. While we trust that Mahomes and his colleagues will answer the call by game's end, we project an early deficit before Mahomes enters God-mode.

Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown (-185 on FanDuel)
Since we're anticipating Saquon will be heavily featured in Super Bowl LIX (duh), we have to look at this bet. Barkley has scored 13 rushing touchdowns in the regular season, an 8th-place rank among all RBs, and 15 touchdowns overall. In the playoffs he already has five touchdowns in just three games, and his usage has only gone up (66 carries, eight targets). The Eagles' vaunted offensive line is completely healthy and firing on all cylinders, and while Philadelphia is facing one of the NFL's premiere defenses, Barkley is damn-near impossible to keep out of the endzone for four quarters. Parlaying this prop with your favorite Super Bowl wager makes too much sense.

A non-QB to throw a touchdown pass (+2000 at FanDuel)
Trick plays have become a common scene in recent Super Bowls. Kansas City has made the championship game in four of the past five seasons, and in every iteration they've tried something creative at the goal-line. Of course, the Eagles are known for the "Philly Special," a play where then-quarterback Nick Foles caught a touchdown pass late in the second quarter of Super Bowl LII, just six years ago. In general, teams pull out all the stops in the most important contest of the season, and both programs are full of dynamic playmakers who have attempted touchdown passes before (Saquon, Devonte Smith, and Travis Kelce, to name a few). This is a great price on a very possible scenario.

Total first downs over 40.5 (-132 at FanDuel)
It's not breaking news to say that Super Bowl LIX features two of the most capable offensive programs in the NFL. Guided by two stoic quarterbacks, the Eagles and Chiefs know how to get beyond the marker when they need to, and they have more ways to earn a first down than most teams. Philly most notably uses the tush-push, and they're 3-3 on fourth down conversions in the playoffs. Kansas City is 2-3 in the same category. This season, both outfits are top-12 in first downs per game (PHI: 21, KC: 20.6), and both prefer long, clock-bleeding drives that feature plenty of running and short-passes. We love this wager.

Travis Kelce over 60.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
The Eagles are one of the best defenses against tight ends, allowing just 591 receiving yards to the position this season. Kelce is, of course, an outlier, since he's been partnering with Mahomes in their past four Super Bowl appearances — a tandem that's electric in big-game moments. Buffalo did a good job of limiting Kelce in the AFC title game, keeping the future Hall of Famer to just 19 yards, but Philadelphia's regressed in this area in their past two postseason matchups, permitting 158 yards to Zach Ertz and Tyler Higbee. Expect Kelce, who's eclipsed this mark in his past three Super Bowl appearances (93, 81, 133) to be at his best yet again.

Raptors Have 3rd-Best Net Rating and League’s Best Defense During 5-Game Winning Streak

By Craig Williams

Hornets under 100.5 points alternate (-155 at DraftKings)
We’re going to give the Hornets just a small benefit of the doubt here, and look at them to score under a slightly higher number. That’s simply because they’re at home on a Friday night, and they have another game and more practice time without LaMelo Ball (ankle) under their belts. Still, they’re over 10 points worse in offensive rating without Ball on the floor, so we do not expect them to play well offensively, but they do still have guys who can score. Plus, the Clippers have not been as stingy defensively on the road as they are at home.

Hornets +14 (-112 at FanDuel)
As bad as the Hornets are — overall, but especially without LaMelo Ball — they are slightly better at home. Meanwhile, the Clippers’ stellar defense has been more forgiving over the first two games of their road trip — a loss at Phoenix and a win at San Antonio. The Clippers have won their past 10 matchups with the Hornets, and even though they’re 6-4 against the spread as well, we still like the 14 points we’re getting. This is obviously a game the Clippers can’t lose, but they don’t need to empty the tank to dominate, especially with a Sunday game against the red-hot Raptors in Toronto on the schedule. Both teams are middle of the pack in pace, so that’s one more factor we think can conspire to keep this game relatively close. 

Daniel Gafford + Jalen Duren 10+ rebounds (+125 at DraftKings)
We’re dipping into some longer odds here because Gafford and Duren have both been cleaning the glass at a high level in recent games. Gafford has started his past eight games, and he’s averaging 10.6 boards per game over that span (and corralled at least 10 boards in five of those contests). Duren, meanwhile, is averaging 11.9 boards over his past eight games with six double-figure performances over that stretch.

76ers +10 (-115 at Caesars)
We’re not ready to hop on the 76ers’ bandwagon, but we’d be remiss if we didn’t recognize how well they’re playing at the moment. They’ve won and covered four straight, including against the Cavs and surging Kings. The Nuggets, meanwhile, have lost and failed to cover each game on their current road trip. The Sixers will be undersized and undermanned, so we’re not banking on them winning. But it’s difficult to ignore what both teams are doing of late, namely the Sixers’ top-eight offensive and defensive ratings over their four-game win and cover streak.

Raptors moneyline (-158 at FanDuel)
The Raptors are on fire right now, carrying a five-game win streak into tonight’s contest against the Bulls. They’re third-best in net rating over that five-game span with the league’s best defensive rating. Even if you expand that sample to 10 games, a stretch over which the Raptors are 7-3, they rank No. 3 in defensive rating and 10th in net rating. The Bulls are struggling, finishing 2-8 over their past 10 games with the 26th net rating over that span. They’re having issues on offense in particular, and if that persists against a rejuvenated Raptors defense, they’re going to have trouble taking home a W on the road.

Bulls under 116.5 points alternate (-145 at Fanatics)
Much of what we mentioned above for our Raptors moneyline pick applies here as well. We’re adding a bit of cushion for ourselves, but we love the matchup for the Raptors, whose 97.0 defensive rating is best in the league over their five-game winning streak. They’ve held four of their past five opponents below this scoring mark; and the Bulls have remained below this mark in their past four road games and in four of their past five overall.

Giannis Combined for 57 Points + Rebounds + Assists in 2 Matchups Against Wemby Last Year

By Jack Dougherty

New Orleans Pelicans +11 (-108 at FanDuel)
The Pelicans have been playing much better basketball of late, especially on their home court. New Orleans has won three of its past four home games while averaging 128.5 points per contest, and its only loss in that span was a 137-136 heartbreaker to the Mavericks earlier this week. Zion Williamson is healthy and dominating with 88 points over his past three games, and Celtics don’t have many options to body him up in the paint. This spread is a touch too high. 

Jayson Tatum to record a double-double (+155 at DraftKings)
This is a great buy-low spot on Tatum after eight straight games without a double-double. Before that stretch, he grabbed at least 10 boards in three straight starts and four of five, including 11 against the Pelicans earlier this month. New Orleans is really struggling to defend forwards of late, as it gave up 25 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists to P.J. Washington and 21 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists to Scottie Barnes in its past two games. 

CJ McCollum under 23.5 points + rebounds (-125 at DraftKings)
McCollum has cleared this line in five of his past six games, but that’s creating a valuable under bet in a tough matchup. The Celtics give up the third-fewest points (20.68) and threes per game (3.04) to opposing shooting guards, and they’ve held four straight starting SGs under this number. McCollum has gone under this mark in three of his five games against the Celtics as a member of the Pelicans. It took him 23 and 24 shot attempts, respectively, to hit the over, and he’s unlikely to see that volume with a relatively healthy team around him. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo over 50.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110 at BetMGM)
Antetokounmpo is facing off against Victor Wembanyama Friday night in the battle of lank, and the Greek Freak has the advantage in this matchup due to his superior strength. In two games played against Wemby last season, Antetokounmpo averaged 57.0 points + rebounds + assists and shot a combined 30-49 (61.2%) from the field. Antetokounmpo has cleared this line in back-to-back games, and this is a matchup he knows he can dominate inside. 

Stephen Curry under 24.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
It’s always a scary proposition to fade Curry, but he hasn’t been an effective scorer of late as he continues to play through a nagging knee injury. The Warriors guard has gone under this mark in five straight games while averaging only 17.4 points and 15.6 field goal attempts per contest. He’s also gone under in both games against the Suns this season, shooting just 39.5% from the floor and 30.4% from three in those matchups. This prop hasn’t been downgraded enough based on Curry’s recent play. 

Devin Booker over 6.5 assists (+100 at FanDuel)
It’s impossible to ignore how good Booker’s playmaking has been recently. The Suns guard has gone over this line in three straight games while averaging 17.8 potential assists per contest, which is the second-highest mark in the NBA in that span. Booker has gone over 6.5 assists in nine of 15 games since missing five games in December due to a groin injury, and he dished out nine dimes in his lone matchup against the Warriors this season.

Betting Trends: Purdue’s 3-Point Effectiveness, Georgetown’s Success as a Favorite

Indiana (14-7, 5-5 Big Ten) vs. No. 10 Purdue (16-5, 8-2 Big Ten)

• The Hoosiers’ Oumar Ballo has at least 1 block in 17 of his past 19 games (1.7 average)

• Purdue’s Fletcher Loyer made at least 2 three pointers in 10 of his past 13 home games (2.7 average)

Butler (9-12, 2-8 Big East) vs. Georgetown (13-8, 4-6 Big East)

• Georgetown is 17-2 in their past 19 games as the favorite

• The Hoyas’ Malik Mack tallied at least 17 points + rebounds in 8 of his past 9 home games (19.4 average)

Dayton (14-7, 4-4 A10) vs. Saint Louis (13-8, 6-2 A10)

• SLU’s Kobe Johnson has at least 1 steal in 8 straight games (1.4 average)

• Dayton’s Nate Santos made over 1.5 three pointers in 6 straight road games (2.2 average)

Akron (15-5, 8-0 MAC) vs. Kent State (13-7, 4-4 MAC): Akron Zips is 4-8 against the spread in their past 12 road games

Yale (11-6, 4-0 Ivy) vs. Princeton (14-5, 3-1 Ivy): The over hit in 7 of the past 8 Yale road games

Iona (8-12, 5-4 MAAC) vs. Manhattan(9-9, 4-5 MAAC): The over hit in 8 of the Manhattan Jaspers last 10 games as an underdog

In the News 

• How William "The Refrigerator" Perry losing Caesars a bunch of money by scoring in the 1986 Super Bowl supercharged prop betting.

• The biggest All Star snubs in the NBA this season.

• Manchester City will face Real Madrid in the Champions League playoff round.

• ESPN extended its TV deal with the ACC through 2036, which will make it even harder for FSU and Clemson to leave.

• Utah Hockey Club changed the options for the new team name before the fan vote even began, replacing Wasatch with Outlaws.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 11:35am: Pebble Beach Pro-Am on CBS, Golf Channel and ESPN+

• 7:30pm: Nuggets vs. 76ers on ESPN (followed by Suns vs. Warriors at 10pm)

• 8pm: Indiana vs. No. 10 Purdue for men’s college basketball on FOX

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