MLB Matchups to Watch and Insights for 10 WNBA and Tennis Bets

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: The FIFA Club World Cup semifinals

• Top 10 Bets: Dallas Rookie Bueckers averaged 22 points per game in June

• Matchups: Kikuchi has held current Rangers batters to 21 hits in 103 at bats

• Player to Watch: American has tough matchup to reach Wimbledon quarterfinal

• Overtime: The 25 worst college football coaching hires this century

The FIFA Club World Cup is down to the final four teams, with Brazilian club Fluminense taking on the Premier League’s Chelsea tomorrow and Champions League winner Paris Saint-Germain facing La Liga runner-up Real Madrid on Wednesday. With up to $125 million awarded to the champion, the lightly-attended, oft-criticized tournament is still very meaningful to the semifinalists.

PSG (+135) remains the favorite to win, followed by Real Madrid (+175), Chelsea (+280) and Fluminense (+1300), according to FanDuel. Real Madrid’s 21-year-old emerging star Gonzalo García (-105) is the favorite to score the most goals — he currently has 4 in 5 games — ahead of Chelsea’s Pedro Neto (+1000) and three players who have four goals but are knocked out of the tournament.

For the semifinal matches, Chelsea (-160) is the heavy favorite to beat Fluminense (+450), while PSG (+135) vs. Real Madrid (+185) is getting closer to a tossup.

—Abe Rakov

Rookie Bueckers Scored 58 Points in 1st Two Matchups vs. Mercury

By Chris Farley

Mirra Andreeva vs. Emma Navarro over 21.5 games (-108 at Bookmaker)
The last time Emma Navarro and teen-sensation Mirra Andreeva faced off, the American was at the end of a career-defining season and just wasn't in the same form. Predictably, Andreeva won in straight sets (6-2, 6-2), against a version of Navarro that seemed burnt out following deep runs at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. Now, Navarro is one year older and more experienced in these high-profile matchups. And even though her opponent is just 18, the two make very formidable contenders. Andreeva has been dominant at Wimbledon, mowing through three straight goes and only losing 17 total games, but Navarro has great poise and defense, evidenced in her three-set comeback victory against Barbora Krejčíková after falling 6-2 in the first round on Friday. This should be a great watch.

Emma Navarro 2-1 (+410 at FanDuel)
Navarro has the disposition of a champion. The American showed a calm demeanor despite a bad start against Krejčíková. In the end, Navarro won five out of six break points and had last year's Wimbledon champion thrown off; Krejčíková committed eight double-faults while Navarro played nearly mistake-free tennis. The 24-year-old will need all that and more when she goes up against an opponent her junior, although you wouldn't know it by the Russian's performance. Andreeva has been nearly flawless in London, but she's also benefited from a rather soft draw compared to Navarro. Her first-serve also sank a little in the last round, down to just a 63% success rate. Andreeva has been more consistent this season, but she's very young and will need to continue near-perfect form to outlast the American.

Clara Tauson +4 (-102 at Bookmaker)
Tauson was incredibly impressive in the last round, making one clutch shot after another to rattle Elena Rybakina, a former Wimbledon winner who looked sensational before their clash on Saturday. This is the first time the Danish star has made it beyond the first round on the grass court major, and throughout her career the surface has easily been her worst (47.37%). Her opponent, former World #1 now 8th-ranked Iga Swiatek, has benefitted from an easy draw thus far and shockingly she has never made it to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon. She's understandably a big favorite, but the way Tauson dismantled Rybakina, who's a better player than Swiatek on grass, should not be overlooked, and we're getting a very gracious spread from oddsmakers.

Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego over 3.5 sets (-174 at FanDuel)
Eventually Ben Shelton will win a grand slam tournament; that much we're pretty sure of. The 22-year-old American is brash and massively talented, as he's displayed in three consecutive three-set sweeps over his opponents so far in Wimbledon. Entering the tournament he was on a bit of a tumble (lost three straight matches), but he appears to have recovered form and now gets another familiar opponent. Shelton faced Lorenzo Sonego twice in majors already this season and needed more than three sets to get it done on both occasions. Sonego also has far more experience on grass surfaces, where he is a respectable 28-23 in his career. The American is due a brief lapse, at least, so we'll swallow a chalky line for a very likely winner.

Grigor Dimitrov to win a set (+140 at DraftKings)
The best version of Dimitrov that we've seen all year is entering the fourth round of Wimbledon, a spot he's occupied each of the last three years at the London major. In four straight majors prior, the Bulgarian left early due to nagging injuries. But the 34-year-old is in a different spot in London, listening to his coaches and doctors and taking extra time off after Roland Garros. It's paid off, leading to three straight, dominant victories, having only lost one set. Of course, World #1 Jannik Sinner just tied the record for the fewest games lost in the first three rounds at Wimbledon (17), playing frighteningly exceptional tennis. Fortunately, that gives us great value in this line, since Dimitrov is well-adept on this surface and has all the tools to challenge Sinner when he's in top form.

WNBA

Valkyries +6.5 (-105 at BetOnline)
The Dream have lost their mojo lately, losing three of their past five games and falling to the 9th-best offense in the W. The reasons are many. No team has been worse from beyond the arc in that span (27%), they're efficiency from the field has dropped drastically (down to 41.5%), and they have the worst mark in the W in free throw percentage (72%). We expect regression to come eventually, but this isn't the defense to let it happen. Golden State continues to prove doubters wrong with their steady, gritty defensive effort, ranked second overall this season and over their past five contests. Even better, their offense is climbing, too, 6th-best in the same span and putting up 80.6 points per game. These are two teams heading in opposite directions and for us the choice is obvious.

Valkyries vs. Dream under 157.5 points (-110 at BetOnline)
The Valkyries have a way of forcing games under, even if it's not always for the most admirable reasons. Only three of their past eight games have gone over tonight's listed total, and much of it is because of their defense. Golden State has averaged a healthy 79.75 points per game in that span, but they've only permitted 73.5. They won't be at home on Monday, but we expect them to control the pace and output of the exchange, especially since Atlanta hasn't been at their best. The Dream have lost three of their past four, lapsing on offense during the same span (ranked 11th and averaging just 77.5 points per game), and they'll be battling the WNBA's slowest program. We like another low-scoring total.

Wings +6.5 (-111 at Bookmaker)
Dallas has battled Phoenix twice this season but the second sure looked different than the first. In game two they far outshot the Mercury (47.8% from the field — Phoenix shot just 41.8%), and we were impressed by their effort. Dallas forced Phoenix's star, Satou Sabally, into just 33.3% from the field, and the Wings far outworked the Mercury on the boards (38-26). Of course, the Mercury are still feeling the love from oddsmakers, rightfully valued as 6.5-point favorites at home, but the Wings' improvement is no fluke. Over their past five games they're top-5 on both offense and defense and one of the best rebounding teams in the league. Oh and Paige Bueckers? Yes, she's the real deal (22 points per game in June).

Wings vs. Mercury over 164.5 points (-110 at BetOnline)
The third meeting between these Western Conference foes will likely be contentious, but that doesn't mean we won't see points. For as good as the Mercury's offense has been (1st over the past five games), their defense hasn't been up to par, sinking to 9th in the same five-game span. In general the Mercury's philosophy is to outscore their opponents and dare them to keep up, catalyzed by a top-2 tempo all season (and lately they're even quicker, 1st overall in their past five). The Wings are flawed and not very good on defense, either (10th this season), while Bueckers has had massive success against Phoenix (58 points in two games) and the rest of the team has followed, scoring 80+ in both meetings. We see no reason to expect regression. 

Satou Sabally over 18.5 points (+100 at FanDuel)
Mercury star Satou Sabally has taken the league by storm. Many had Phoenix, who started this season with a prospective 24.5 win total, as a team that would miss the mark, but that hasn't come to be. Already 12-6 and one of the best offenses in the W, Sabally is a huge reason why they keep succeeding. Against the Wings she's been even better, 20 points in each of their previous two meetings. That was true in game two even though she shot just 33.3% from the field. Since June, Sabally has taken at least 14 shot attempts in eight of 11 contests, and she's averaged a healthy six free throws per game. With Dallas' offense blossoming into a more formidable unit, the Mercury should continue to feed Sabally against their rival to keep up.

Cronenworth has a Career OBP of .419 vs. Gallen (6-9, 5.45 ERA on the Season)

• Jake Cronenworth (Padres) vs. Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks): 8-26, 3 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 5 BB, 5 K

• Carlos Santana (Guardians) vs. Hunter Brown (Astros): 3-7, 1 RBI, 1 K

• Miguel Rojas (Dodgers) vs. Freddy Peralta (Brewers): 4-13, 2 RBI, 1 K

• Andrew Benintendi (White Sox) vs. Jose Berrios (Blue Jays): 10-35, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 4 BB, 9 K

• Tommy Edman (DD-Dodgers) vs. Freddy Peralta (Brewers): 6-22, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 6 K

• Steven Kwan (Guardians) vs. Hunter Brown (Astros): 4-5, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K

Pitchers to Watch

• Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi has held current Rangers batters to 21 hits in 103 at bats. Kikuchi has given up just 4 home runs and struck out 26.

• Current Diamondbacks batters are 13-79 vs. Padres starter Nick Pivetta (.241 OBP) with 21 strikeouts, 8 walks and 2 home runs.

Wimbledon

• No. 1 Jannik Sinner vs. No. 19 Grigor Dimitrov: Sinner has won 4 of the 5 matchups, beating Dimitrov is straight sets in both head-to-heads last year (French Open and Masters 1000 Miami). Dimitrov’s lone win came in Rome in 2020, the first time the two played on the ATP Tour.

• No. 8 Iga Swiatek vs. No. 23 Clara Tauson: These two haven’t played since Indian Wells in 2022, a 6-7, 6-2, 6-1 win for Swiatek. On the season, Swiatek is 38-11 but has yet to win a title, while Tauson is 27-13 and won the ASB Classic at the start of 2025.

American Navarro has Tough Matchup Against Russian Teenager at Wimbledon

Name: Emma Navarro
Rank: 10
Today’s Matchup: vs. No. 7 Mirra Andreeva
2025 Stats: 24-16, 1 title

Last 5 matches vs. top-50 players

• Wimbledon 3rd Round: Beat No. 17 Barbora Krejcikova 2-6, 6-3, 6-4

• Bad Homburg Quarterfinals: Lost to No. 3 Jessica Pegula 4-6, 6-1, 3-6

• Bad Homburg Round of 32: Beat No. 26 Marta Kostyuk 6-2, 7-5

• Berlin Tennis Open Round of 16: Lost to 8-seed Paula Badosa 6-7 (2), 3-6

• Berlin Tennis Open Round of 32: Beat No. 26 Marta Kostyuk 6-2, 6-3

Matchup

• Navarro and Andreeva have played only once, with the then-17-year-old beating the American in Cincinnati 6-2, 6-2. Andreeva already has two singles and two doubles titles on the year.

Bets to Watch

• Moneyline: Andreeva -188, Navarro +155

• Total games (21.5): Over -126, Under -106

• Total sets (2.5): Over +120, Under -164

In the News 

• How seven teams got involved in the trade that sent Kevin Durant to the Rockets.

• The 25 worst college football coaching hires this century, according to CBS Sports.

• After 239 races, Nico Hulkenberg finally earned his first spot on an F1 podium with his third place finish at the British Grand Prix (and Lando Norris got the win).

• Which NFL quarterbacks are on the hot seat to start the 2025 season?

What to Watch (times are ET)

• All Day: Wimbledon on ESPN/ESPN+

• 3pm: Portugal vs. Italy in Women’s Euro action on FOX

• 6:40pm: Rays vs. Tigers on FS1

• 9:40pm: Diamondbacks vs. Padres or Phillies vs. Giants on MLB Network

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