All Star Snub Lindor Has Reached Base in 7 of 12 At Bats Against Tonight's Starter

In today’s newsletter…

- MLB: Look for long outing from Mitchell Parker
- Wimbledon: Djokovic and Sinner rolling
- MLB: Guardians vs. Tigers could mean a lot of runs
- News: UConn’s Hurley gets $50 million deal

Mitchell Parker over 17.5 outs recorded (-104 at FanDuel)
Mitchell Parker has been a workhorse for the Nationals this year, as the rookie has gone over this line in six of his last nine starts. This matchup against the Cardinals is about as good as he could ask for, too. St. Louis ranks 29th in MLB this season in batting average (.222), OPS (.624), wOBA (.277) and wRC+ (80) against lefties. Parker is effective at pitching to contact, and the Cardinals are one of the worst teams at generating hard-hit balls. 

Ryan Feltner over 5.5 hits allowed (-115 at DraftKings)
Ryan Feltner is having a tough season for the Colorado Rockies. Opposing hitters are batting .294 against the right-hander with a .340 BABIP, and he ranks in the third percentile in pitching run value. Feltner has surrendered at least six hits in six of his last seven starts and 11 of his last 15. That included an appearance against the Reds in which he gave up 10 hits and eight earned runs.

Rockies team total under 1.5 runs first 5 innings (+120 at DraftKings)
Andrew Abbott has been a bright spot for the Reds this season, as he’s given up two earned runs or fewer in 13 of his 17 starts. He’s set up for another solid outing against the Rockies, who have been struggling mightily against left-handed pitching. Colorado is batting just .171 with a .585 OPS and a 54 wRC+ against southpaws this month, and current Rockies hitters have a .171 xBA and a .212 xwOBA against Abbott. 

Francisco Lindor over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-155 at DraftKings)
We’re riding the hot hand with Francisco Lindor, who has gone over this line in 11 of his last 15 games. The Mets shortstop leads the team in hits (eight), runs (six) and RBIs (five) over the last week, and this is a solid matchup against Pirates starter Mitch Keller. In 12 career plate appearances against the righty, Lindor has reached base seven times for an on-base percentage of .583. 

Yilber Diaz over 2.5 walks allowed (+145 at DraftKings)
Yilber Diaz is making his MLB debut for the Diamondbacks on Monday night, and there will surely be some nerves for the 23-year-old. The biggest reason Arizona waited until now to bring Diaz up is his control issue. The right-hander recorded a 12.03% walk rate in the minors this year, which would be the fourth-worst mark in MLB among qualified pitchers. This is also an intimidating Braves lineup, so Diaz might have trouble attacking in the zone. 

Jonathan India and Jesse Winker to record a hit parlay (+106 at FanDuel)
Jonathan India is scorching hot at the plate right now, especially against right-handed pitching. The Reds second baseman is batting .447 with a 1.312 OPS against righties over the last 15 days, and this is a great matchup with Feltner on the mound. As for Jesse Winker, he’s crushed Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas in the past. Winker is 5-13 (.385) with two home runs and a double against Mikolas in his career. 

Masyn Winn to hit a home run (+600 at FanDuel)
As much as we like Parker to go deep in this game, we’re also interested in fading him with a home run prop due to his 8.9% barrel rate. Masyn Winn isn’t considered a power hitter by any stretch, but that changes when there’s a left-handed pitcher on the mound. The Cardinals shortstop is second on the team in slugging percentage against lefties this year (.451), and all four of his homers have come off southpaws.

Danielle Collins wins 2-0 (+130 at FanDuel)
Danielle Collins has been beyond impressive all year, but she might be at her best in London. Collins was down 4-0 in the first set to Beatriz Haddad Maia before she became possessed, winning six straight games and riding that momentum throughout the match to win 6-4, 6-4. Multiple rain delays, surges from Haddad Maia, errors — none of it mattered. Collins is in a different gear right now and although her opponent has played admirably, Barbora Krejcikova's path has been far easier than Collins'. The Czech player just doesn't have any explosive qualities to suggest she could take Collins off her game.  

Tuesday Matches
Lulu Sun to win (+225 at FanDuel)
Sorry, do you not know who Lulu Sun is? Yeah, last week we didn't either. The rising 23-year old, who's now doubled her career winnings in just one tournament, is the first ever New Zealander to make it this far in London. Emma Raducanu was a -690 favorite leading into their fourth round match, but Sun's third set rally (she finished the match with a 6-2 final set) left all doubt behind — she's here to compete, and she's a real threat with so many big names out. Donna Vekic is a fine player, but Sun's victories are more impressive. Her naivete combined with an aggressive, free-flowing style should rattle Vekic, who admitted she never heard of her before.

Jasmine Paolini vs. Emma Navarro both win a set — Yes (+118 at FanDuel)
The clash between Jasmine Paolini and Emma Navarro should be great TV. Navarro has shown the poise of someone who has a lot more experience than she truly does, perhaps a consequence of a wealthy childhood with more worldly exposure than most. Either way, it's working. Navarro is playing with ruthless aggression and confidence, digging forehands into impossible spots and playing with grit in tough moments. Enter Jasmine Paolini. Arguably no women's tennis player has had a better two months, and she's as relentless and risk-taking as her Quarterfinals opponent. Neither is going down easy.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul over 3.5 sets (-160 at FanDuel)
This price on this over is far too cheap. Carlos Alcaraz is the #3 ranked player at Wimbledon but only second behind Jannik Sinner as the favorite to win another Grand Slam title. The Spaniard is arguably the most crafty and talented player in the world right now, but his opponent is a very serious threat to his chances in London. Tommy Paul has arguably never had a better stretch of tennis than what we've seen the past few months. He tore through the formidable Roberto Bautista Agut in the fourth round, and he's only lost 3 sets in his first four matches. We can't imagine each of these studs not winning a set.

Djokovic ML and Sinner ML parlay (-159 at DraftKings)
We're typically not the first ones to advocate for parlays, but in 1-1 sports it's permitted more often. Novak Djokovkic, the guy that's won more Grand Slams than any player in history (24), is up to his usual shtick. When he needs to turn it up, he does, and Holger Rune has shown too many mental errors to suspect he'll unseat the Serbian. Jannik Sinner is the favorite to win Wimbledon for a reason, elevating his game tremendously this year — already with one Grand Slam title under his belt. Daniil Medvedev is a tough opponent, but Sinner has won his last five matches against the Russian, often finding holes in the most clutch moments. A parlay it is.

Futures
Elina Svitolina to win Women's Draw (+1600 at DraftKings)
At first it looked like Elina Svitolina's chances at winning Wimbledon were slim-to-none after a rough first round win against Magda Linette. The Ukrainian didn't look sure of herself against a familiar opponent, going a full three sets in a battle that included a 20-point tiebreaker in the second. But Svitolina has rediscovered her fabulous form since, along with the same vigor we saw last year. In 2023 she defeated Iga Swiatek, the unquestionable world's #1, in masterful fashion, and after an impressive third round domination of Ons Jabeur, clearly her confidence is back. Her toughest remaining opponent is Elena Rybakina. For the price, the value is impossible to ignore.

Guardians -0.5 first 5 innings (+105 at DraftKings)
The Guardians and Tigers are 5-5 over their last 10 with modest win streaks — two games for the Guardians and three for the Tigers. Detroit right-hander Keider Montero enjoyed the best performance of his young career his last time out, but served up nine earned runs across 8.2 frames in two starts prior. Cleveland’s Gavin Williams is no Cy Young candidate himself, but we like the Guardians and their scrappy offense on the road nonetheless.

Guardians vs. Tigers over 8.5 runs (-105 at FanDuel)
Gavin Williams vs. Keider Montero doesn’t scream “pitcher’s duel.” Montero has a 6.60 ERA and 1.40 WHIP across 15 innings; Williams gave up five earned runs on seven hits across four innings in his 2024 debut. The Guardians play well away from home and are 7-3 to the over across their last 10. The Tigers are 5-4-1 in that department, but finished their road trip on a 5-2 run and enter play with that three-game win streak.

Steven Kwan hit + Riley Greene hit parlay (-120 at DraftKings)
Kwan has been among the league’s best hitters in the game since returning to the Guardians’ lineup on May 31. He’s slashing .375/.432/.583 over that span and has hit safely in seven of his last eight games. Greene has not been quite as prolific, but he’s batting .304 since May 31 and .287 overall against right-handed pitchers. 

Rangers -0.5 first 5 innings (+110 at FanDuel)
The Angels are one of the league’s worst home teams overall, and they’re playing poorly of late with 4-6 records both straight-up and against the spread. The Rangers are climbing their way back into the postseason picture and riding a three-game win streak. They’re also 7-3 against the spread across their last 10, providing confidence that they’ll be able to jump on a bad Angels team early.

Wyatt Langford over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-130 at DraftKings)
Langford is distancing himself from a slow start to the season, batting .322/.389/.517 since June 1 with a 44.2% hard hit rate and 18.9% line drive rate. Angels right-hander Davis Daniel does a good job limiting walks, contributing to his 0.90 WHIP, but he’s not someone with a powerful, swing-and-miss repertoire. Langford should be able to make solid contact throughout tonight’s contest.

Twins over 3.5 runs first 7 innings (-135 at DraftKings)
The Twins are enjoying a quality run of form, going 7-3 straight-up and against the spread over their last 10. They’re also 7-3 to the over and in line to face Chris Flexen, who has a 5.23 xFIP across his last six starts with seven homers allowed. This Twins team has been on fire offensively, scoring 5.8 runs per contest and batting .293 as a team since June 1.

Chris Flexen under 3.5 strikeouts (+108 at FanDuel)
Not only has Flexen recorded under four strikeouts in four of his last six starts, but he’s far from a lock to pitch deep into a contest — especially against this Twins team. Minnesota is slashing .293/.358/.486 since June 1 with a league-best 17.6% strikeout rate, so they may very well send Flexen to an early shower. But even if they don’t, they should continue putting the ball in play against someone with heavy pitch-to-contact tendencies.

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