Glasnow Back for Dodgers, Alcantara Eating Up Innings for Marlins, 10 Bets to Watch and 15 Matchup Insights

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Who are the best WR/TE/RB groups in football?

• Top 10 Bets: The Giants have won just 2 of Verlander’s past 11 starts

• Matchups: Jannik Sinner has beaten American Ben Shelton 5 times in a row

• Game of the Day: It’s PSG vs. Real Madrid in the Club World Cup semis

• Overtime: A look at the past 10 MLB No. 1 picks

ESPN released its annual ranking of best WR/TE/RB groups, and the Eagles are in the top spot.

Philly’s ranking is powered in part by Saquon Barkley, who is favored (+270 at FanDuel) to again lead the NFL in rushing yards this season. A.J. Brown is +1900 to lead the NFL in receiving, the ninth-best odds in the league.

The Bengals are in third on ESPN’s list, fueled by Ja’Marr Chase, who is a +600 favorite to lead the NFL in receiving yards. Cincinnati’s Tee Higgins is on the list, too, coming in at +4400 — ahead of several No. 1 receivers including Garrett Wilson (+4700), Terry McLaurin (+4900) and Mike Evans (+5000).

At DraftKings, Derrick Henry is +450 to lead the NFL in rushing TDs (Barkley is third at +650, behind teammate Jalen Hurts’ +550). Chase is also favored to lead the league in receiving scores (+600).

—Patrick Dorsey

Alcantara Went Over Today’s Outs Line in 5 of 6 Starts and Threw 91 Pitches in 4 Straight

By Jack Dougherty

Dodgers -0.5 first 5 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
Tyler Glasnow is back on the mound after two months on the injured list, and he’s in a good spot to build an early lead in this matchup. In 27 plate appearances against Glasnow, Brewers hitters are batting just .077 with a .159 xwOBA. On the other side, Dodgers hitters are batting .300 with a .456 xSLG and a .341 xwOBA against Brewers starter Jose Quintana. Quintana is also starting to struggle with at least three earned runs in three of his last four starts.

Phillies -0.5 first 5 innings (-110 at DraftKings)
Justin Verlander isn’t who he used to be. The veteran right-hander ranks in the 14th percentile in xERA (4.98) and the 15th percentile in barrel rate (10.8%) this season. The Giants are 4-10 in Verlander’s 14 starts this year, including a 2-9 mark in his last 11 outings. The Phillies have scored only 12 runs over their last four games, but that’s because they had a recent 0-26 stretch with runners in scoring position. Jesus Luzardo has been much better than Verlander this year, and the Giants rank 28th in MLB in OPS against lefties over the last two weeks (.580). 

Sandy Alcantara over 17.5 outs recorded (-150 at DraftKings)
We were quick to fade Alcantara when he was struggling to go deep in games earlier this season, but he’s been much better at eating up innings lately. The Marlins right-hander has gone over this line in five of his last six starts, and he’s thrown at least 91 pitches in four straight. This is a solid matchup for Alcantara, too, as the Reds rank 29th in batting average (.177), OPS (.505) and wRC+ (36) against righties this month. 

Cardinals team total over 3.5 runs (-130 at FanDuel)
MacKenzie Gore has nightmares about this Cardinals lineup. In 68 plate appearances against the left-hander, Cardinals hitters are batting .397 with a .601 xSLG and a .452 xwOBA. This line is lower because St. Louis has been ice cold against lefties, but this familiar matchup should get the lineup back on track. Even if the Cardinals don’t get to Gore, Washington’s bullpen has a 4.95 ERA and a 4.71 FIP over the last two weeks. 

Luis Arraez 2+ hits (+165 at FanDuel)
Arraez is on fire at the plate right now. The Padres infielder is 10-19 (.526) in his last five games, and this is a dream matchup for him to stay hot at the dish. In 16 career at-bats against Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt, Arraez is batting .625 with eight singles and two doubles. Pfaadt ranks in the first percentile in xBA (.312) and the third percentile in hard-hit rate (50.3%) this season, and Arraez is the perfect hitter to take advantage of his mistakes. 

Golf: Genesis Scottish Open

Robert MacIntyre top-20 finish (+140 at FanDuel)
This price seems a touch high on the reigning champion to finish inside the top 20. Not only did MacIntyre win his home country’s event last year, but he also finished runner-up to Rory McIlroy in 2023 and notched two other top-20 finishes in 2021 and 2020. The 28-year-old has finished T17, T2, T36, T20 and T6 in his last five starts, and his irons and putter have been on fire during that stretch. Now he returns to his favorite event on the calendar with a ton of confidence.

Matt Fitzpatrick top-20 finish (+190 at FanDuel)
After failing to record a single top-20 finish in his first 11 starts of the 2025 season, Fitzpatrick has ripped off three top-20s in his last five events, including back-to-back at the Travelers Championship and the Rocket Classic. The ball-striking is finally coming along, as Fitpatrick has gained strokes on approach in seven of his last eight starts and strokes from off the tee in seven of his last 10. Over his last 10 rounds on links courses, the Englishman has gained a whopping 14.32 true strokes from putting alone. If the ball-striking stays hot and the putter performs like it normally does in the UK, Fitzpatrick could contend for a win.

Tournament matchup: Nick Taylor > Tom Kim (-110 at DraftKings)
This is a disrespectful line on Taylor, who has been a much better player than Kim this season. Kim has only one top-30 finish all year. He’s lost strokes from off the tee and on approach in eight of his last 11 starts and is traveling to Scotland off back-to-back missed cuts. As for Taylor, he’s finished T17, T23, T13 and T4 in his last four starts, gaining strokes from off the tee and on approach in all four. Kim is only the favorite in this matchup because he has a strong course history at The Renaissance Club, but that doesn’t matter if his game is struggling this much.

Tournament matchup: Tommy Fleetwood > Viktor Hovland (-165 at DraftKings)
Fleetwood is the perfect player to target in matchup bets because his floor is so high. The Englishman has finished T22 or better in 12 of his 15 worldwide starts this year. He also has a strong course history at The Renaissance Club with finishes of T34, T6, T4, T26 and solo second in five starts. Hovland is hard to trust right now, as he withdrew from his last start at the Travelers Championship with a neck injury. He’s also finished T46, T25 and cut in three career starts at the Genesis Scottish Open. 

Full tournament matchup: Robert MacIntyre > Justin Thomas (-125 at DraftKings)
Thomas simply isn’t a good links golf player compared to other stars on the PGA Tour. The American has finished T62, T60 and cut in his last three starts at the Genesis Scottish Open, and he has only one finish better than T31 in his Open Championship career. There’s something about these unique layouts that brings out the worst in Thomas, whereas MacIntyre grew up playing Scottish links courses and has all the necessary shots to succeed here.  

Jannik Sinner Has Won 5 in a Row vs. American Ben Shelton

• Willson Contreras (Cardinals) vs. MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): 8-13, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Luis Arraez (Padres) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks): 10-16, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 2 K

• Alejandro Kirk (Blue Jays) vs. Adrian Houser (White Sox): 6-9

• Carson Kelly (Cubs) vs. David Festa (Twins): 3-5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 1 K

• Riley Greene (Tigers) vs. Zack Littell (Rays): 5-9, 2 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB

• Elias Diaz (Padres) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks): 4-7, 1 2B, 3 RBI, 2 K

• Marcus Semien (Rangers) vs. Kyle Hendricks (Angels): 4-8, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Nolan Arenado (Cardinals) vs. MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): 4-9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB

• Bryce Harper (Phillies) vs. Justin Verlander (Giants): 6-14, 1 2B, 3 BB, 3 K

• Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) vs. Jose Quintana (Brewers): 1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB

Pitchers to Watch

• Reese Olson (Tigers) has been stifling in limited appearances vs. Tigers hitters, allowing just 3 hits (all singles) in 24 at-bats (.125 average) for a .317 OPS against.

• Tyler Glasnow (Dodgers) has been even more lights-out vs. current Brewers hitters, giving up just 2 hits in 26 at-bats (.077 average) and striking out 13 for a .303 OPS against.

• Sandy Alcantara (Marlins) has been strong vs. the Reds, allowing 8 hits in 42 at-bats (.190 average), walking 1 and striking out 11.

Wimbledon

• No. 1 Jannik Sinner vs. No. 10 Ben Shelton: Sinner is 5-1 vs. the American, winning their past five meetings including in last Wimbledon’s Round of 16 (straight sets).

• No. 8 Iga Swiatek vs. No. 19 Liudmila Samsonova: Swiatek is 4-0 vs. Samsonova, last winning 6-4, 6-1 in the 2024 US Open Round of 16.

European Titans PSG and Real Madrid Face Off For the Second Spot in the Club World Cup Final

Chelsea unsurprisingly beat upstart Fluminense 2-0 in the first Club World Cup semifinal. Now comes the titanic battle, between the past two UEFA Champions League winners. Keep an eye on Real Madrid breakout Gonzalo Garcia, who is tied for the tournament lead with four goals.

PSG vs. Real Madrid
3pm ET on DAZN
Semifinals

• Moneyline: PSG +135, Draw +250, Real Madrid +185

• Total (2.5): Over -166, Under +118

*Stats in the Club World Cup

PSG at the Club World Cup

• 4-0 win vs. Atletico Madrid

• 1-0 loss vs. Botafogo

• 2-0 win vs. Seattle Sounders

• 4-0 win vs. Inter Miami

• 2-0 win vs. Bayern Munich

Real Madrid at the Club World Cup

• 1-1 draw vs. Al-Hilal

• 3-1 win vs. Pachuca

• 3-0 win vs. Red Bull Salzburg

• 1-0 win vs. Juventus

• 3-2 win vs. Borussia Dortmund

In the News 

• A look at the past 10 MLB No. 1 picks — which were hits, and which were busts?

• Will Jonas Valanciunas refuse to play for the Nuggets?

• Nikola Jokic is reportedly not going to sign an extension with Denver this summer.

• Brad Stevens defended the Celtics’ big offseason moves.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 8am: Wimbledon on ESPN/ESPN2/ESPN+

• 12pm: England vs. Netherlands in the Women’s Euro on FS1

• 3pm: France vs. Wales in the Women’s Euro on FOX

• 7pm: Mets vs. Orioles on ESPN

• 7:05pm: Mariners vs. Yankees on Prime Video

Photo of the Day