15 MLB Matchups to Watch + WNBA and Tennis Bets

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Where the WNBA stands going to the 2nd half of the season

• Bets to Watch: Mystics had league’s best defense in first half of July

• Matchups: Guerrero Jr. is 9-15 with no strikeouts against Rodon

• Player to Watch: Fritz is the favorite at DC Open

• Overtime: NFL training camps are starting

The second half of the WNBA season begins tomorrow with a five-game slate, including an ESPN doubleheader: Fever vs. Liberty at 8pm ET and Dream vs. Aces at 10pm. At 20-4, the Lynx, led by All Star Game MVP Napheesa Collier, are 3.5 games up on the Liberty for the top spot in the league. Caitlin Clark’s Fever are 12-11 and 7.5 games back, but the star guard has missed 10 games due to injury.

The two biggest surprises in the league are currently 8th and 9th, as the Aces are just 11-11 (they had just 13 losses all of last year in a “down” season) and the expansion Valkyries are 10-12 when many pundits expected about half that number of wins for the entire season.

The Liberty (+180) are still favorites to repeat, and the Lynx are currently +210. The league-leaders are followed by the Mercury (+550), Commissioner’s Cup-winning Fever (+750), Dream (+1600) and Aces (+1900).

Off the court, players made a statement at the All Star Game by wearing shirts that said “Pay Us What You Owe Us,” as the players’ union and league remain far apart on a new contract.

—Abe Rakov

Sky (+13.5) Showed Signs Of Life Before All Star Break, Going 2-2 Including Win Over Lynx

By Chris Farley

Mystics -3.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
The Sparks got the best of the Mystics before the break, taking advantage of DC's long, West Coast road trip. The visiting Mystics were out-of-sync and lacked energy in their first meeting (43.5% from the field, down 59-34 at the half), but we expect that to change on Tuesday. Washington turned into one of the W's best defenses in July, ranked first from July 1 to July 13 until their debacle in L.A. They allowed just 77 points per game during that span, too. Outliers happen, but the Sparks have not been consistent in any regard — 11th in net-rating this season and never improving defensively, not even a little. The home team is in a great position to exact revenge.

Sonia Citron over 13.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)
Lately the rookie star out of Notre Dame hasn't been quite as productive, perhaps a sign that defenses are honing in since they recognize her talent. Her 8-point flop against the Sparks was fake news, though. The Sparks own one of the worst defenses in the W (10th overall), and they're especially bad at preventing threes. Guards have shot 34% beyond the arc against L.A. this season (also 10th), a weakness that Citron, who's shooting 36.5% from distance, can expose. Citron seemed to tire out with the rest of her team as they approached the break, we imagine five out of seven contests on the road will do that, but back at home and after some much needed rest, we like the Washington guard to thrive in the rematch.

Liberty -10 (-110 at DraftKings)
This is a big game for the reeling Fever, who are just 12-11 at the halfway mark of the season. Caitlin Clark isn’t expected to be available; either way we don't like Indiana's prospects. In their last game against the Liberty, (July 16th) they got walloped by 21 points (98-77), as New York rediscovered the physical brand of defense, a big reason for their early success (Indiana shot just 36.8% from the floor in the loss). Now 2-1 over Indiana this season, New York is at home for their final meeting and they won three straight heading into the break, owning a +37 point differential. We like the Liberty to pick up right where they left off.

Fever vs. Liberty under 165 points (-110 at Bovada)
The Liberty and Fever are both above-average offenses, rated 1st and 3rd respectively halfway through the season. New York is also the fastest team in the WNBA so far, and Indiana has picked up their tempo lately (5th over their past five games). They've also scored 178, 190, and 175 in three meetings. So then why do we like the under? Caitlin Clark's status aside, oddsmakers are expecting the same production from both sides, but we see it differently. Both programs know their defense needs improving, 8th (NY) and 9th (IND) over their past 10 games, and tensions are building as playoff hopes take center stage. Clark's on-and-off status only hurts Indiana's offensive chemistry, too. We love regression here.

Chicago Sky +13.5 (-110 consensus)
The Sky have not been a good team this season, although they've surely shown some fight lately. Their last game isn't one we'll consider, an outlier just one day before the WNBA All Star break (they got smashed 86-49 by Atlanta), but in their five previous contests we were impressed. They went just 2-3 in that span but their point differential was notable, a cumulative -3, and they won a game over the Lynx. In the same duration they faced Minnesota three times in eight days, and every battle was competitive. The recency of their clashes will grant familiarity to a Chicago squad that must go on a run if they hope to make the playoffs, and we like them to bring the urgency.

Atlanta Dream +2.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
There's no doubt who the better team has been the first half of the season. Their first meeting this summer, Atlanta will hope to take out a historically great Vegas squad that's played well below expectations so far, and a large part is because of their offense. A'ja Wilson is still the truth (22.3 points, 9.2 rebounds per game), but the rest of her colleagues haven't been up to snuff. While Wilson is averaging 50% from the field, her team is only at 41.6% (10th), and they're not great at hitting threes either (33.7%, 9th). Neither team has been consistent on defense, but Atlanta rates far better (6th overall, while Vegas is 9th), and their offense has been one of the elites all season (4th overall, 84 points per game). They're not getting enough respect.

Seattle Storm -9.5 (-110 consensus)
The Storm have been anything but consistent this season. Looking at the first half of the season in four different segments, Seattle would teeter-totter between an above average to a below average team, in between the 5th-best and 7th-best net rated program. Still, they command love from the oddsmakers because of their notable wins and overall record (14-9). So far they've handled the Wings in two matchups, but they were just eight and six-point wins. Dallas showed promise in June, ascending to as high as the 7th-best team, but in July they rank as the league's worst. They also own a disgusting -11 average point differential this month. We'd like to take Dallas, who has budding players like Paige Bueckers on their roster, but our brains won't let us. Seattle has all the advantages at home, too.

Tennis

Leylah Fernandez moneyline (+110 at Bovada)
It's been a rocky year for Fernandez. She has been a part of big moments in her career, most notably the 2021 U.S. Open finals, where she lost to Emma Raducanu, and she routinely finds herself deep in major tournaments. But that hasn't been the case this season. Just 16-17 overall, the World #35 is just 22 years old and obviously has plenty of room to grow, but in familiar territory she thrives. In her career, she's 143-86 on hard courts (62.45%), easily her best mark on any surface. She's facing up-and-comer Maya Joint, who has nearly surpassed Fernandez in the WTA rankings (37th) and has had a better season (38-17). But this is the Canadian's territory, and that gives her an edge we love for this price.

Danielle Collins 2-0 (+105 at FanDuel)
Speaking of players who need to get back on track. Collins has once again pledged that 2025 will be her final year playing professional tennis. So far it hasn't been the storybook ending she's seeking, certainly not as eventful as last season. Regardless, on hard courts (62.28% win-rate in her career) the American has a chance to revive this year's campaign, and she'll face a foe who doesn't pack the same punch. Magda Linette has some better stats than Collins this year (like 110 break points won, compared to Collins' 80), but she's never been great on hard courts, just 41-40 the last three seasons. She hasn't looked crisp in her last two tournaments, either, quickly dropping out of Wimbledon and Eastbourne. We like Collins to dominate.

Learner Tien moneyline (-150 consensus)
American Learner Tien is one of tennis' most exciting younger stars, a 19-year-old from Southern California who's risen to World #67, a quick elevation from his 121st ranking at the start of the calendar year. Known for his vicious serves and trademark athleticism, Tien is just 11-15 this season but he's had some marquee wins against names like Ben Shelton, Reilly Opelka, Cameron Norrie, and even Alexander Zverev (at the Mexico Open back in February). A return to hard courts will be a welcome change for the first-year pro, a surface where he's 19-10 and winning 75% of the time on first-serves. His opponent, Emilio Nava, is just 2-5 on hard courts the past year but has served well (won 76% of service games). This might be close, but we like the countryman to win. 

Elder Has 14 Strikeouts Against Current Giants Players vs. Just 7 Hits Given Up

Batters to Watch

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) vs. Carlos Rodon (Yankees): 9-15, 3 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB, 0 K

• Paul Goldschmidt (Yankees) vs. Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays): 9-16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 5 BB, 1 K

• Brandon Nimmo (Mets) vs. Tyler Anderson (Angels): 8-15, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3 K

• Aaron Judge (Yankees) vs. Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays): 16-43, 3 2B, 6 HR, 12 RBI, 10 BB, 18 K

• Elly De La Cruz (Reds) vs. Jake Irvin (Nationals): 4-11, 1 2B, 1 3B, 6 K

• Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates) vs. Jack Flaherty (Tigers): 4-12, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 2 K

• Ernie Clement (Blue Jays) vs. Carlos Rodon (Yankees): 3-10, 1 K

• Isiah Kiner-Falefa (Pirates) vs. Jack Flaherty (Tigers): 4-7, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 RBI

• Jake Fraley (Reds) vs. Jake Irvin (Nationals): 4-8, 1 2B, 1 K

• Ryan O’Hearn (Orioles) vs. Tanner Bibee (Guardians): 3-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 K

• Gunnar Henderson (Orioles) vs. Tanner Bibee (Guardians): 3-6, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 K

Pitchers to Watch

• Dodgers starter Shohei Ohtani holds current Twins hitters to a .170 average (.264 OBP). He has give up eight hits in 47 at bats, including three doubles, one home run, and four RBI — while walking six and striking out 10.

• Braves starter Bryce Elder has given up just seven hits across 40 at bats against current Giants players (.175 average, .214 OBP). He has double the strikeouts (14) than hits given up, and has walked just two batters.

• Red Sox starter Walker Buehler holds current Phillies hitters to a .233 average (14-60), including J.T. Realmuto’s 2-12 and Trea Turner’s 0-14 with five strikeouts. Buehler has given up two home runs and has struck out 14.

• Reds starter Brady Singer has more strikeouts (12) than hits given up (10) against his opponents today. Overall singer holds Nationals hitters to a .208 average and has given up just two home runs and one double.

Fritz is Favored in a Stacked DC Field With Odds That Don’t Align With Seeding…Other Than Fritz

The Mubadala Citi DC Open main draw kicks off today, with American Taylor Fritz earning the tournament’s No. 1 seed (he won’t play until the next round). Lorenzo Musetti is the 2-seed, followed by Holger Rune at #3 and American Ben Shelton at #4.

Name: Taylor Fritz
Ranking: #4 in ATP rankings, #1 seed in tournament
This Week’s Tournament: Mubadala Citi DC Open
2025 Stats: 30-12 record, 2 titles, $3,149,610 in prize money

Past 5 Matches vs. Top-25 Opponents

• Wimbledon Semifinal: Loss vs. No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz 4-6, 7-5, 3-6, 6-7 (6)

• Wimbeldon Quarterfinal: Win vs. No. 20 Karen Khachanov 6-3, 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 (4)

• Stuttgart Final: Win vs. No. 3 Alexander Zverev: 6-3, 7-6

• ATP Masters 1000 Madrid Round of 16: Loss vs. No. 15 Casper Ruud 5-7, 4-6

• ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells Round of 16: Loss vs. No. 14 Jack Draper 5-7, 4-6

Head to Head

• vs. No. 2 Lorenzo Musetti: Musetti leads 3-2, winning all three matchups in 2024

• vs. No. 3 Holger Rune: Fritz leads 2-1, and they each won a Masters 1000 Round of 16 matchup in 2024

• vs. No. 4 Ben Shelton: Fritz won their only meeting, the Round of 64 at Indian Wells, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3

Pre-Tournament Odds (via DraftKings)

• To Win: Fritz (+350), Shelton and Alex De Minaur (+650), Daniil Medvedev (+700), Rune (+1100), Andrey Rublev (+1500), Frances Tiafoe (+1800), Musetti (+2000)

In the News 

• NFL training camps are opening as the new season kicks off.

• The NFLPA’s chief strategy officer has resigned from the union mired in chaos.

• LIV golfer Bryson DeChambeau will be on the U.S. Ryder Cup team even if he doesn’t qualify points-wise.

• A Braves assistant coach is being investigated by MLB after a heated conversation with Yankees infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. about sign stealing.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• All Day: Mubadala Citi DC Open on Tennis Channel

• 5pm: Argentina vs. Peru followed by Chile vs. Ecuador in Copa América Femenina on FS1

• 8:05pm: Royals vs. Cubs or A’s vs. Rangers on MLB Network

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