Money is With Yankees, Bets are With Blue Jays in AL East Showdown + Broncos Fantasy Preview

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Lionel Messi and Inter Miami are MLS Cup favorites

• Bets to Watch: Cam Davis’s success at this week’s PGA course

• NFL: Denver Broncos fantasy preview

• Public Betting: The money is heavily behind the Dodgers today

• Game of the Day: Yankees aim to close the gap on the Blue Jays

• Overtime: Who is holding out of NFL training camps?

It’s the MLS All-Star break, with the league’s top players taking on Liga MX’s best in Austin, Texas (9pm ET on Prime Video).

Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami (+400) is the favorite at DraftKings to win its first MLS Cup. Four other teams looking to win their first MLS Cups are next: FC Cincinnati (+700), Vancouver Whitecaps (+800), San Diego FC (+900 in their inaugural season) and Philadelphia Union (+900). The defending-champion Galaxy are at +80000.

Messi is -115 to lead the league in scoring, followed by Nashville’s Sam Surridge (+225). The two are currently tied for first at 18 goals. Messi (-340) is the overwhelming favorite to win MVP, well ahead of San Diego’s Anders Dreyer (+900).

Meanwhile, Messi’s status for the All-Star Game is uncertain — but his absence could cost Miami.

—Patrick Dorsey

Favorite to Win the 3M Open is a Whopping +115 to Earn a Top-20 Finish

By Jack Dougherty

Sam Burns top-20 finish (+115 at FanDuel)
Normally, the favorite of a PGA Tour event isn’t priced at plus-money to finish inside the top 20. With no big guns in the field at the 3M Open, though, this is a unique betting week. Burns, the favorite to win at +1800, is a solid target to play in the top-20 market. Burns struggled in his recent trip to the United Kingdom, but he’s never been a strong links player in his career. Before that, he recorded five straight top-20 finishes and seven in his last eight starts. The American finished T12 at TPC Twin Cities last year, and he’s in even better form now than he was then.

Cam Davis top-40 finish (+150 at DraftKings)
Most PGA Tour players have specific courses that fit their game and bring out the best in them. For Davis, TPC Twin Cities is one of those courses. In his last five starts at the 3M Open, Davis has finished T19, T10, T16, T28 and T12. The Australian has gained strokes from off the tee and on approach in four of those five starts, so this place clearly fits his eye as a ball-striker. Davis has only two top-20 finishes since February, but his poor form is creating a valuable price on a modest top-40 finish.

Tournament matchup: Cameron Champ > Sungjae Im (+115 at DraftKings)
Im isn’t the same player he used to be. The two-time PGA Tour winner has gone six straight starts without finishing inside the top 50, and he hasn’t gained strokes on approach since the Masters in April. You can’t score if you aren’t hitting your irons close, and Im simply doesn’t have it with his approach play this season. As for Champ, he finished T14, T27, T19 and T9 in four starts before missing the cut at the Barracuda Championship. He also won the 3M Open in 2021 and finished T16 and T12 in his last two appearances here. 

Tournament matchup: Kevin Yu > Max Homa (-125 at DraftKings)
This is a shocking sentence to type in 2025, but Yu is a better player than Homa right now. Homa has just three top-40 finishes in 18 PGA Tour starts this season, and he’s had a ton of trouble with his driving accuracy. That’s a bad sign heading to a course with multiple water hazards in play off the tee. Yu, on the other hand, has gained strokes from off the tee in five straight starts. He typically struggles with the putter, but he’s found a groove of late, gaining strokes on the green in seven of his last eight starts.

Fantasy Preview: No. 1 Broncos Outscored Next-Best Defense by 21 Points Last Season

By Jack Dougherty

The Broncos enter the 2025-26 season with high expectations after winning 10 games and making the playoffs in Sean Payton’s second year at the helm. There were questions about Payton’s decision to draft Bo Nix as his next franchise quarterback, but those questions were answered right away in what was an exceptional rookie season for the Oregon and Auburn product. The Broncos gave Nix more offensive weaponry this offseason by signing Evan Engram and J.K. Dobbins and drafting R.J. Harvey to go along with Courtland Sutton on the outside. 

The strength of this team, though, is the defense that ranked third in points allowed and yards allowed per play and first in red-zone touchdown percentage allowed. Denver also loaded up at key positions this offseason by adding Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga. 

Even though Denver is in a tough division, it should have its sights set on a second straight playoff appearance. 

Odds to Make Playoffs: -114

Click here to read our full Broncos fantasy preview on our website, Sportmoney.com

93% of the Money Is Backing the Dodgers (-1.5) At Home vs. the Twins

WNBA

• Dream vs. Mercury (-6.5, -110): 80% of the money and 71% of the bets are with Phoenix

MLB

• Reds (-1.5, +125) vs. Nationals (+1.5, -150): 61% of the money is with Cincinnati, but 51% of the bets are with Washington

• Padres (-1.5, +114) vs. Marlins (+1.5, -137): 67% of the money is with San Diego, but 54% of the bets are with Miami

• Giants (+1.5, -146) vs. Braves (-1.5, +122): 53% of the money is with San Francisco, but 54% of the bets are with Atlanta

• Tigers (-1.5, +116) vs. Pirates: 67% of the money and 52% of the bets are with Detroit

• Angels (+1.5, -140) vs. Mets (-1.5, +116): 52% of the money is with Los Angeles, but 53% of the bets are with New York

• Royals vs. Cubs (-1.5, +146): 59% of the money and 54% of the bets are with Chicago

• Cardinals (-1.5, -130) vs. Rockies: 77% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Colorado

• Astros vs. Diamondbacks (+1.5, -196): 65% of the money and 71% of the bets are with Arizona

• Twins vs. Dodgers (-1.5, -108): 93% of the money and 71% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Orioles vs. Guardians (+1.5, -210): 62% of the money and 82% of the bets are with Cleveland

• Red Sox (+1.5, -162) vs. Phillies: 63% of the money and 58% of the bets are with Boston

• Yankees (-1.5, +122) vs. Blue Jays (+1.5, -146): 54% of the money is with New York, but 62% of the bets are with Toronto

• White Sox vs. Rays (-1.5, +105): 82% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Tampa Bay

• Athletics (+1.5, -172) vs. Rangers: 55% of the money and 51% of the bets are with the Athletics

Yankees (-1.5) Try To Close Gap in AL East Race vs. Blue Jays

The Yankees (56-45) are hardly out of the AL East race, pulling to within 3 games back with a 5-4 win over the Blue Jays (59-42) on Tuesday. This meeting will determine whether that’s 2 or 4 at the end of the series.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays
7:07pm ET
Prime Video

• Starting Pitchers:

  • NYY: Max Fried (11-3), 2.43 ERA, 122.0 IP, 33 ER, 27 BB, 113 K, 1.01 WHIP

  • TOR: Chris Bassitt (10-4), 3.89 ERA, 113.1 IP, 49 ER, 29 BB, 109 K, 1.36 WHIP

• Spread: Yankees -1.5 (+122), Blue Jays +1.5 (-146)

  • 54% of the money is with New York, but 62% of the bets are with Toronto

• Moneyline: Yankees -138, Blue Jays +118

• Total (8.5): Over -104, Under -118

Head to Head

• Max Fried has allowed just a .184/.215/.250 slash line vs. current Blue Jays hitters, striking out 11 in 76 at-bats. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 2-14 with 1 2B, 2 RBI and 2 K.

• Current Yankees have done well vs. Chris Bassitt, posting a .304/.380/.513 slash line in 115 at-bats. Bassitt has managed 36 strikeouts vs. 35 hits.

In the News 

• Who is holding out of NFL training camps?

• Micah Parsons is at Cowboys training camp, and he had a response to Jerry Jones’ recent dig.

• Maryland’s football coach said he lost the locker room last year, and it was because of player compensation.

• Matt Rhule on Nebraska: “This was not a good job when I got here.”

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: Germany vs. Spain in the Women’s Euro semifinals on FOX

• 7pm: Red Sox vs. Phillies on ESPN

• 7:07pm: Yankees vs. Blue Jays on Prime Video

• 9pm: MLS All-Stars vs. Liga MX All-Stars on Prime Video

Photo of the Day