Nathaniel Wood is +230 for a TKO/KO at UFC 304

In today’s newsletter…

• MLB: Mariners + White Sox is recipe for low runs

• Column: Behind the scenes at MLB Network

• UFC 304: Knockout unlikely in Bannon v. Ardelean

• More MLB: Look for short outing from MacKenzie Gore

• News: TNT trying to keep NBA

Orioles -1.5 (+102 at DraftKings)
The Padres have won five of six on their current road trip, but taking two of three from the struggling Guardians and the Nationals isn’t like going into Camden against the Orioles. To be fair, the Padres have performed better on the road than at home, but we’re fading rookie Adam Mazur in this spot. He hasn’t pitched five innings or recorded a game score over 50 since his first start on June 4.

Red Sox moneyline (+102 at FanDuel)
Yankees lefty Nestor Cortes is 0-5 with a 6.04 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road, and he’s not likely to have the luxury of being backed offensively. The Yankees rank a mediocre 19th in runs scored since July 1, and they’re really only getting contributions from Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. That fearsome duo is a less-than-remarkable 3 for 12 with two doubles, three walks, and four punchouts against Red Sox starter Brayan Bello.

Mariners vs. White Sox under 7 runs (+104 at FanDuel)
It doesn’t take a vivid imagination to consider the vibe around the White Sox, who are in the midst of an 11-game losing streak and counting down the days until the trade deadline. The Mariners, meanwhile, are in a rut of their own, dropping five of six since the break and only scoring 11 runs in those contests. Offense won’t be easy to come by with both Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford on the shelf.

Tigers over 3.5 runs (+114 at DraftKings)
Twins starter Pablo Lopez struggled against the Tigers in Detroit on April 12 (4 IP, 6 H, 5 ER), and he’s set to face them in the Motor City again. We’re not suggesting the results will be the same, but this version of the Tigers is in good form. They’ve won six of 10, they’re 13-7 in July, and they’ve scored the third-most runs in MLB since July 1. Meanwhile, Lopez has been inconsistent this season, to say the least.

Royals -0.5 first 5 innings (-110 at FanDuel)
Royals right-hander Brady Singer owns a 2.43 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at Kauffman Stadium. He’ll take the hill against the struggling Cubs, who have scored the fewest runs in baseball since the All-Star break. And while the Royals are stellar at home, the Cubs are eight games below .500 on the road. Both are in the midst of a two-game losing streak, but we think the Royals can snap their skid tonight.

Rangers moneyline (+100 at FanDuel)
The Rangers have won five in a row and seven of 10, while the Blue Jays have lost four of 10. They’re still a game below .500, but they’re only 2.5 games out of first in the American League West. They perform better offensively versus left-handers, good news against southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. And even though they have better marks at home than on the road, we’re buying their recent 4-2 stretch over their last six away games. 

Parlay: Athletics moneyline + over 9 runs (+175 at FanDuel)
Believe it or not, the Athletics lead MLB in runs scored since July 1. Perhaps that’s not a surprise once you consider their 19 and 18-run outbursts against Baltimore and Philadelphia, respectively. The A’s and Angels combined to reach the over in each of their last four matchups and six of 10 overall. Given the Angels’ struggles at home plus Athletics starter Paul Blackburn’s struggles on the road, we could see plenty of runs scored tonight.