Insights on 10 Bets to Watch Today + Which 1st Year NFL Coaches Could Make Playoffs

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: What the betting markets think of first year NFL head coaches

• Bets to Watch: Liberty are just 7.5-point favorites over 7-19 Wings

• Player to Watch: Dodgers’ Yamamoto has 29 strikeouts in last 24.2 innings

• Public Betting: Cubs’ Boyd (11-3) goes head-to-head against rookie phenom

• Overtime: What Cowboys fans want Jerry Jones to do about Micah Parsons

Seven NFL teams have new head coaches heading into the season, and today we’re taking a look at what the betting markets think of their chances in Year 1:

• Chicago Bears: Ben Johnson

  • Last Season: 5-12

  • Win Total (8.5): Over +135, Under -160

  • To Make Playoffs: +194

• Dallas Cowboys: Brian Schottenheimer

  • Last Season: 7-10

  • Win Total (7.5): Over -125, Under +105

  • To Make Playoffs: +190

• Jacksonville Jaguars: Liam Coen

  • Last Season: 4-13

  • Win Total (7.5): Over +100, Under -120

  • To Make Playoffs: +186

• Las Vegas Raiders: Pete Carroll

  • Last Season: 4-13

  • Win Total (7.5): Over +145, Under -170

  • To Make Playoffs: +320

• New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel

  • Last Season: 4-13

  • Win Total (7.5): Over -165, Under +140

  • To Make Playoffs: +160

• New Orleans Saints: Kellen Moore

  • Last Season: 5-12

  • Win Total (5.5): Over +150, Under -175

  • To Make Playoffs: +920

• New York Jets: Aaron Glenn

  • Last Season: 5-12

  • Win Total (5.5): Over -120, Under +100

  • To Make Playoffs: +590

—Abe Rakov

Storm Rank #1 in Defense in July, Ogwumike Continues to Anchor Offense

By Chris Farley

Liberty -7.5 (-105 at Bovada)
With Jonquel Jones back in the lineup, the Liberty's defense showed signs of its elite form again. In her first two games since returning from injury, New York held Indiana to 84 and Phoenix to 76, two of the association's best offenses. But the red-hot Sparks put an end to that story, dropping 101 points on 51% from the field (and 41% from beyond the arc) in a win against the Liberty on Saturday, a shocking result. The Liberty must pick themselves back up and head to Dallas with just one day of rest in between, but extra motivation shouldn't be hard to find after such a letdown. Dallas is also just 1-4 and net-rated 10th over their past five games, and they played on Sunday (a 26-point loss to the Aces). This is New York or nothing.

Liberty over 88.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)
If the Wings keep it close on Monday, it won't be because of their defense. Dallas' offense hasn't been incredible but it hasn't been the worst unit in the WNBA either, averaging 82.6 points per game in July and running at the quickest pace in the association. That brand of basketball only inflates the scoreboard, too. Games involving the Wings have averaged 171 points in July, and Dallas' opponents have averaged a league-high 88.4 per game. The Liberty's offense is feeling itself again, averaging 88.6 points per game and top-3 this last month in advanced metrics. Even better, this season they have the #1 overall tempo, which will create a catalyzing effect between both programs. All the ingredients are there for big output from the away team.

Storm -11.5 (-110 at DraftKings and BetMGM)
We wish we had more positive things to say about the Sun. Betting can seem too simple at times, but in this case that would be a tough argument to defend. Connecticut actually won last night, and in their past two games against Seattle they split the series. Their loss was a close battle until the fourth quarter, too. Still, the Sun rate as the second-worst team in July and there's a wide margin between them and the next team, mostly because of terrible defense (rated last, allowing 87.7 points per game). This isn't an easy spot for Seattle, but they own the best defense in the WNBA and the Sun are off no days of rest. This is inflated for good reason.

Nneka Ogwumike over 16.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)
The Storm's offense has struggled, rated worse than the Sun in overall offense this month. Anchored by a defense that ranks #1 in the WNBA in the same span, Seattle relies on its stalwart shooters to hold the team afloat when they need it most. Because of that, no player is more important for Seattle than Ogwumike. The longtime pro is now 35 years old and in the twilight of her career, but that hasn't slowed her down, averaging a healthy 17 points per game this season. Among starters she's in the top-35 in field goal efficiency this month, too, boasting a 46.5% mark. Somehow she's underperformed in three games against Connecticut (16, 12, 16), but she'll have a chance to step up and lead her team in an uncomfortable spot, in their third straight road game. We expect the 13-year player to step up.

Tennis

Elena Gabriela Ruse to win (+381 at Bookmaker)
Emma Raducanu is coming off a sterling performance at the Citi Open. Although she eventually lost to Anna Kalinskaya in the semifinals, she started the tournament with three impressive two-set sweeps over very formidable foes: Kostyuk, Osaka, and Sakkari. No rest for the weary: Raducanu has a tough two-day turnaround, traveling up to Montreal for the next event, while her opponent is coming off six full days of rest. Elena Gabriela-Ruse is a game-ready player who can always provide a challenge, even to the WTA's best. In mid-June she nearly won the Libema Open, dropping a close match against Elise Mertens in the finals, and she owns an impressive 40-20 record (66.6%) on hard courts the last three seasons. There's serious value on the pooch here.

Lulu Sun to win (+184 at BetOnline and FanDuel)
Sorana Cirstea is a tough player to figure out. In smaller circuits she's clearly on a different level. She showed as much in a good performance at the Iasi Open last week. She's also had some big wins this year, like when she beat Emma Navarro in Dubai or Diana Shnaider at the ATX Open. For the most part, the 35-year-old is out of her prime and it shows, now ranked 168th in the world with just 11 matches this year. On hard courts she hasn't been that impressive, either, 37-28 (56.9%) the last three seasons. Lulu Sun, on the other hand, owns a 64.54% win rate on hard courts in her career and hasn't competed since Wimbledon. These are more mystifying odds that don't check out, so we'll consider another frisky, well-rested pooch.

Maya Joint to win (+154 at BetMGM)
Leylah Fernandez had the showing she needed in DC. On Sunday she beat out Anna Kalinskaya to win the Citi Open, a great sign for a player who has mostly struggled this season. Hard courts are more her speciality and now she has momentum, but we're concerned about the short turnaround she'll face heading into Montreal. We're also concerned that her opponent will be extra-motivated to beat her. Maya Joint, the fast-rising Australian who's now ranked 38th by the WTA, was quickly booted out of the Citi Open, a 6-3, 6-3 loss to the same opponent she'll confront on Monday. A savvy, smart baseline mover who's done well on hard courts this season (16-9), we like her to catch Fernandez off guard.

Alycia Parks moneyline (+210 at BetMGM)
Oddsmakers are finally giving Caty McNally her due again. The 23-year-old is a hard court specialist (18-12 the last three seasons) but she hasn't been consistent for a long time. Usually she competes in smaller events, rarely seeing any legitimate action in Grand Slams or major tournaments. Still, the American is on the rise (now ranked 135th) and a respectable 36-13 this season. She's still not Alycia Parks. The 24-year-old Parks may not have seen much success this season outside of two fourth round appearances in Qatar and Dubai, but she's constantly battling top players and fighting hard. She's also extremely experienced on hard courts (100 total matches). Parks is getting supremely undervalued here.

Joao Fonseca 2-0 (-120 at DraftKings)
Brazilian breakout superstar Joao Fonseca has taken some time off since Wimbledon, where he impressively made it to the third round and gave veteran Nicolas Jarry a run for his money. Fonseca has risen to the 47th-ranked men's singles player in the world solely because of his impact this season. He's 26-19 with a hard-court title win this past March in Phoenix. On Monday he'll be served an underrated challenge in Tristan Schoolkate, who looked dominant in the qualifiers and he owns an impressive 66-40 (62.2%) record on hard courts the last two years. Still, this is the first match between Fonseca and Schoolkate and usually that's bad news for whoever's facing the Brazilian, a remarkably tough puzzle for any opponent to solve, especially when he's well-rested. 

CFB Future

Notre Dame to win the National Championship (+1400 at FanDuel)
Many forget that the Fighting Irish were in the National Championship last year, and even when "Jesus' Team" is thriving they're immediately met with doubt. Is Notre Dame finally back? Marcus Freeman thinks so. If we've learned anything from watching college football over the past two decades it's that coaching matters. Nick Saban has been the face of the sport, not any one player, and it's the same story in South Bend. The Fighting Irish have some real changes this season: a quarterback competition, injuries to their front, a tough opening schedule and big-time-pressure to have a repeat performance. We trust in Freeman. His staff is elite, like offensive line coach Joe Rudolph, and they have 5-star studs throughout their roster, including a generational talent at running back in Jeremiyah Love. Oh and Freeman can coach the hell out of a defense. In a national scene with more parity, continuity and experience favor the Golden Dome. 

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Dodgers’ Yamamoto Has Given Up 1 or Fewer Run in 4 of 5 Starts

Name: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Team: Los Angeles Dodgers (61-45)
Position: Starting Pitcher
Today’s Matchup: at Cincinnati Reds (56-50)
2025 Stats: 20 starts, 8-7, 109.1 innings, 2.55 ERA, 124 K, 37 BB 1.05 WHIP

Past 5 Starts

• vs. Minnesota: 5.0 innings, 5 hits, 3 runs, 1 earned run, 0 HR, 1 BB, 8 K, 101 pitches

• at San Francisco: 7.0 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs, 0 HR, 2 BB, 7 K, 91 pitches

• at Milwaukee: 0.2 innings, 4 hits, 5 runs, 3 earned runs, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K, 41 pitches

• vs. Chicago White Sox: 7.0 innings, 3 hits, 1 run, 1 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 8 K, 98 pitches

• at Colorado: 5.0 innings, 1 hit, 0 runs, 0 HR, 1 BB, 6 K, 56 pitches

Head-to-Head

• Yamamoto has faced the Reds once in his career, giving up 4 earned runs over 5.0 innings in May 2024. He allowed 6 hits and 2 walks while striking out 8. But current Reds hitters are just 2-13 with 6 strikeouts vs. Yamamoto.

Potential Bets

• Strikeout Total (6.5): Over +118, Under -158

• 5+ Strikeouts + Dodgers to Win: -115

• First 5 Innings Moneyline: Dodgers -166, Reds +132

• First 5 Innings Run Line: Dodgers -0.5 (-120), Reds +0.5 (-108)

Bettors Are With Underdog Brewers With Misiorowski on the Mound

• Blue Jays (-1.5, +140) vs. Orioles (+1.5, -170): 65% of the money and 51% of the bets are with Toronto

  • Moneyline: Blue Jays -112, Orioles -104

  • Starting Pitchers: Bassitt (11-4, 3.88) vs. Eflin (6-5, 5.78)

• Rockies (+1.5, +100) vs. Guardians (-1.5, -120): 90% of the money and 80% of the bets are with Cleveland

  • Moneyline: Guardians -240, Rockies +198

  • Starting Pitchers: Blalock (1-2, 8.67) vs. Cecconi (5-4, 3.76)

• Diamondbacks (+1.5, -18) vs. Tigers (-1.5, +155): 58% of the money is with Detroit but 53% of the bets are with Arizona

  • Moneyline: Tigers -126, Diamondbacks +108

  • Starting Pitchers: E. Rodriguez (3-6, 5.50) vs. Mize (9-4, 3.40)

• Rays (+1.5, -194) vs. Yankees (-1.5, +158): 70% of the money and 63% of the bets are with New York

  • Moneyline: Yankees -130, Rays +110

  • Starting Pitchers: Rasmussen (7-5, 2.93) vs. Schlittler (1-0, 4.35)

• Dodgers (-1.5, -102) vs. Reds (+1.5, -118): 67% of the money and 54% of the bets are with Los Angeles

  • Moneyline: Dodgers -162, Reds +136

  • Starting Pitchers: Yamamoto (8-7, 2.55) vs. Burns (0-2, 6.65)

• Red Sox (-1.5, +158) vs. Twins (+1.5, -192): 65% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Boston

  • Moneyline: Twins -112, Red Socks -104

  • Starting Pitchers: Fitts (1-4, 4.86) vs. Woods Richardson (5-4, 4.14)

• Cubs (-1.5, +150) vs. Brewers (+1.5, -182): 68% of the money and 75% of the bets are with Milwaukee

  • Moneyline: Cubs -112, Brewers -104

  • Starting Pitchers: Boyd (11-3, 2.20) vs. Misiorowski (4-1, 2.45)

• Braves (-1.5, -104) vs. Royals (+1.5, -115): 56% of the money and 65% of the bets are with Kansas City

  • Moneyline: Braves -172, Royals +144

  • Starting Pitchers: Strider (4-8, 3.72) vs. Hill (0-1, 1.80)

• Marlins (-1.5, +162) vs. Cardinals (+1.5, -196): 57% of the money is with St. Louis but 56% of the bets are with Miami

  • Moneyline: Cardinals -120, Marlins +102

  • Starting Pitchers: Cabrera (4-4, 3.48) vs. Pallante (5-7, 4.91)

• Mets (+1.5, -200) vs. Padres (-1.5, +164): 79% of the money and 76% of the bets are with New York

  • Moneyline: Padres -124, Mets +106

  • Starting Pitchers: Montas (3-1, 4.62) vs. Cease (3-10, 4.59)

In the News 

• Can the Chiefs keep their dynasty alive after their Super Bowl loss?

• Cowboys fans let owner Jerry Jones know what they think he should do about Micah Parsons’s contract.

• CBS Sports predicted the first loss of the season for every Big Ten team.

• Bubba Wallace won NASCAR’s Brickyard 400, becoming the first Black driver to win a major race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 8pm: Liberty vs. Wings on ESPN

• 8pm: Argentina vs. Colombia in the Copa América Femenina on FS1

• 9:40pm: Mets vs. Padres or Pirates vs. Giants on MLB Network

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