Today’s Top 10 Bets to Watch + Stanley Cup Final Insights

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Aaron Judge’s AL MVP odds are eye-opening

• Game Bets: Blue Jays have the lowest whiff rate and highest chase contact rate in MLB

• Game of the Day: It’s Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final!

• Player Profile: Connor McDavid is looking for his 1st goal vs. Florida this season

• Overtime: Why Tom Thibodeau was fired despite the Knicks’ deep run

In March, the Dodgers were +240 at FanDuel to win the World Series. Today … they’re +240 at FanDuel to win the World Series. But that doesn’t mean nothing has changed; the Yankees have moved from +900 to +550, indicating growing confidence in New York. The Tigers weren’t even on the “contender” radar prior to the season, but now sit third at +950.

The Yankees have seen some even bigger movement in one race: AL MVP, where Aaron Judge (+300) trailed Bobby Witt Jr. (+280) before the season at FanDuel, but now is a staggeringly huge favorite (-20000).

Want more baseball? Here’s an early trade deadline preview for all 30 teams.

—Patrick Dorsey

Reds Won All 7 Non-Extra Innings Games that Abbott Started this Season

By Jack Dougherty

Reds moneyline (-120 at DraftKings)
You could do worse than betting on the Reds every time Andrew Abbott takes the mound. The left-hander has a 1.51 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and a .202 opponent xBA this season, and Cincinnati is 7-2 in his nine starts. The only two losses also came in extra innings. In 51 plate appearances against Abbott, Brewers hitters have a .207 xBA, a .335 xSLG and a .279 xwOBA. This will be a heavy bullpen game for Milwaukee, so the Reds have the advantage on the mound and at the plate. 

Pirates moneyline (+110 at BetMGM)
We’re looking to fade Ryan Gusto and the Astros' bullpen in this one. Gusto has given up 11 earned runs in his last 11.1 innings of work, and Houston has lost five straight games in which Gusto has taken the mound. The bullpen also ranks dead last in MLB in ERA (8.17) and 26th in WHIP (1.66) and hard-hit rate allowed (37.5 percent) over the last 10 days. If there was ever a time for Pittsburgh’s offense to put up a good performance, Wednesday feels like a good bet. 

Mick Abel under 4.5 strikeouts (-140 at DraftKings)
Abel was fantastic in his MLB debut, giving up no runs and striking out nine batters in 6.0 innings, but it did come at home against a Pirates lineup that’s been terrible against right-handed pitching all year. Now the rookie has to go on the road for the first time and face the toughest strikeout matchup in the league. The Blue Jays have the lowest whiff rate and the highest chase contact rate in MLB this year. Toronto also has a minuscule 10.6% K rate against righties over the last 10 days. 

Steven Kwan 2+ hits + runs + RBIs (-125 at DraftKings)
This is a good buy-low spot for Kwan after back-to-back hitless outings. He still ranks second on the team in hits (70) and third in runs scored (29) this season, and this is a great matchup for him. In 14 career plate appearances against Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt, Kwan is batting .500 with a double and two walks. Schmidt throws his cutter 44% of the time, and Kwan is batting .364 with a .479 wOBA against cutters this year. 

Yankees moneyline (-184 at FanDuel)
The Yankees should be bigger favorites in this matchup, especially considering the starting pitcher on the other side. Luis L. Ortiz ranks in the 17th percentile in xERA, the first percentile in average exit velocity and the 15th percentile in barrel rate and walk rate. In 54 plate appearances against Ortiz, Yankees hitters are batting .333 with a .594 xSLG and a .449 xwOBA. As long as Schmidt doesn’t get rocked, New York’s bats should handle the rest. 

NBA Finals

Thunder series spread -2.5 games (-132 at FanDuel)
The NBA Finals might not be much of a fight. Oklahoma City’s defense is perfectly built to get the ball out of Tyrese Haliburton’s hands and keep the Pacers out of transition. Indiana thrives when it can take the ball away and run fastbreaks, but the Thunder cough up the fewest turnovers per game in the NBA (11.7). Home-court advantage is also crucial in this series because OKC is 8-1 at home with an average margin of victory of 24.6 points. The only loss came on the miraculous Aaron Gordon buzzer-beater. Thunder in four or five. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander series leader in assists (+500 at DraftKings)
Haliburton is a massive favorite in this market, and deservedly so, but this is a brutal matchup for the star point guard. Oklahoma City has multiple long, athletic, aggressive defenders to throw Haliburton’s way, and they’re all exceptional at fighting through screens and breaking up pick-and-roll actions. In two regular-season games against the Thunder, Haliburton averaged just 5.5 assists and 11.5 potential assists, while SGA dished out eight assists in both matchups. It’s worth considering the only player who could best Haliburton. 

Golf: RBC Canadian Open

Sam Burns top-20 finish (+140 at DraftKings)
Burns is quietly heating up with the U.S. Open just a week away. The American has recorded four top-20 finishes in his last five starts thanks to the 29.16 true strokes he gained from putting in that span. Burns now ranks first on the PGA Tour this season in strokes gained on the green and 36th in total driving. He also gained strokes on approach at the Memorial for the first time since the WM Phoenix Open in February, which is a great sign heading into a tough long-iron test. 

Tournament matchup: Sam Burns > Ludvig Aberg (+110 at FanDuel)
Anyone scared of a Burns double down? Good, because Aberg is a prime fade target this week. Aberg is second on the odds board behind Rory McIlroy at the RBC Canadian Open due to name value alone, but he’s been struggling with his game recently. The Swede was 7 over par at the Memorial before a strong final round led to a backdoor T16. Before that, he finished cut, T60, T54, solo seventh, cut and cut in his previous six starts. Burns is simply playing better and shouldn’t be this big of an underdog in this matchup. 

Tournament matchup: Robert MacIntyre > Wyndham Clark (-140 at FanDuel)
Speaking of struggling players, Clark is lost on the golf course. The 31-year-old has finished outside the top 45 in five of his last six starts, and he’s lost 16.94 true strokes on approach over his last four tournaments. TPC Toronto is going to demand precise long-iron play, and Clark doesn’t have that in the bag right now. As for MacIntyre, he’s gained strokes on approach and from putting in three straight starts. The reigning champ heads north with much more confidence than Clark. 

Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final is Here!

The rematch has arrived! A year after the Panthers prevailed in seven games — a series in which Edmonton fought back from 3-0 down — the two teams are again squaring off for the Stanley Cup. Unlike in 2024, the Oilers have home ice. Could that help deliver Canada its first Cup since 1993?

A3 Panthers vs. P3 Oilers
8pm ET on TNT/Max/truTV
(Game 1)

• Spread: Oilers -1.5 (+184), Panthers +1.5 (-230)

  • 61% of the bets are with Florida, but 62% of the money is with Edmonton

• Moneyline: Oilers -132, Panthers +110

• Total (6.5): Over +110, Under -134

*Stats in Playoffs

Regular-Season Rundown

• Dec. 16: Panthers won 6-5 in Edmonton

  • First star: Sam Reinhart (FLA) - 1 G, 1 A

  • Second star: Zach Hyman (EDM) - 2 G, 0 A

  • Third star: Connor McDavid (EDM) - 0 G, 3 A

• Feb. 27: Panthers won 4-3 in Florida

  • First star: Anton Lundell (FLA) - 1 G, 2 A

  • Second star: Nate Schmidt (FLA) - 1 G, 0 A

  • Third star: Carter Verhaeghe (FLA) - 1 G, 0 A

Connor McDavid Hasn’t Scored a Goal vs. Florida This Season

Name: Connor McDavid
Team: Edmonton Oilers (48-29-5)
Position: Center
Today’s Matchup: Game 1 vs. Florida Panthers (47-31-4)
Postseason Stats: 16 GP, 6 G, 20 A, 26 PTS, +10

Past 5 Games

• at Dallas: 1 G, 1 A, 2 PTS, -1, 3 S

• vs. Dallas: 2 A, 2 PTS, +1, 3 S

• vs. Dallas: 2 G, 2 PTS, +3, 2 S

• at Dallas: 1 A, 1 PT, +1, 4 S

• at Dallas: 2 A, 2 PTS, -1, 4 S

Matchup

• McDavid has 0 G and 4 A in two games vs. Florida this season. Last season his 3 G and 8 A helped Edmonton take the Stanley Cup Final to 7 games.

Potential Bets

• McDavid 1+ assists (-260 at FanDuel), McDavid 2+ points (-104 at FanDuel), McDavid to register 3+ shots on goal (-170 at FanDuel).

In the News 

• Why Tom Thibodeau was fired despite the Knicks’ strong playoff run.

• Could the Knicks trade one of their stars for KD?

• Speaking of trades, here are three trades for Cooper Flagg that might make sense.

• So, about that Jonnu-Smith-to-Pittsburgh trade…

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7:05pm: Guardians vs. Yankees on Prime Video

• 8pm: Panthers vs. Oilers on TNT/truTV/Max (Game 1)

• 8pm: No. 12 Texas Tech vs. No. 6 Texas in the Women’s College World Series on ESPN/ESPN+ (Game 1)

Photo of the Day